Zilzalian

Last autumn I saw a horse so impressive on two occasions I wrote it on my wall. I was going to back it anywhere it turned up and at any distance and any going.
I have not seen it since, until today it goes straight into G1 company at Deauville (2.50) That horse is Midtown a Godolphin horse trained by the genius Mr Fabre, currently available at 4/1. whatever it does today will set it up for the season.
An observation based on past and present. I have noticed that Fabre does not or rarely uses Barcelona on his other horses, he has to use him on Goldophin Horses. i follow Fabre religiously and i would love to be a fly on the wall for the conversation after that race, He managed to get beat by 2 outsiders because he chose to try to beat Battleground and forgot he had to beat the others also. IMHO, He Barcelona does plenty wrong far too often (remember pour moi in the derby?) he got away with that one. Midtown is a serious racehorse and i will get my money back soon as it runs next so im not bothered about losing but i do get a bit irked when jockeys think they are better than the horse.

Last autumn I saw a horse so impressive on two occasions I wrote it on my wall. I was going to back it anywhere it turned up and at any distance and any going.
I have not seen it since, until today it goes straight into G1 company at Deauville (2.50) That horse is Midtown a Godolphin horse trained by the genius Mr Fabre, currently available at 4/1. whatever it does today will set it up for the season.
An observation based on past and present. I have noticed that Fabre does not or rarely uses Barcelona on his other horses, he has to use him on Goldophin Horses. i follow Fabre religiously and i would love to be a fly on the wall for the conversation after that race, He managed to get beat by 2 outsiders because he chose to try to beat Battleground and forgot he had to beat the others also. IMHO, He Barcelona does plenty wrong far too often (remember pour moi in the derby?) he got away with that one. Midtown is a serious racehorse and i will get my money back soon as it runs next so im not bothered about losing but i do get a bit irked when jockeys think they are better than the horse.

@The Equaliser A 10p lucky 63, £6.30 on @The Brigadier selections returned 107.58 My advice to you last night to shadow the brigadiers selections for a while was the best tip your going to get this year. Well done The Brigadier excellent tipping and info.

365 do BOG on fc which is handy.

Well managed to nab a good placed GG (Sam Maximus)  at 40/1 despite my nap (Dig Two) totally bombing out to come plumb last, too bad to be true.
So we go again with a bunch of not that impressive 2yo's in the Duchess of Cambridge stakes Group 2. 2:25 Newmarket.
1 Hello You                117       11/4
2 Ellade                     116       40/1
3 Sandrine                115       15/8
3 Desert Dreamer     115       12/1
 
Looking at that lot the obvious bet is Ellade @ 40/1. To Win if your man enough or EW if your one of those cautious sensible types. (Well hard men go for the whopping Forecast)
managed to get the fc and tc there pity i couldn't get the big price in but it was exciting for a while

You are indeed correct about "win bets only" that is the bookies biggest loser. However, multiple bets are useful for those punters that don't have much money to spend on betting and its a good way of having a fun bet especially on tv races for small stakes. a good example is tomorrow ,11 races, a couple of lucky 15's (in tomorrows case 3) and you get a horse to watch in each race with a chance of getting a half decent payout..Although my main punt is win bets, i always do multiples as well (40p lucky 15s mainly cost 6 quid) because i get a lot of pleasure/fun out of them mainly because i put bigger prices on them. I Never back a jockey, there is not a jockey on the planet that can get a horse to go faster but there are many that can get them beat including the tops jocks.

Last autumn I saw a horse so impressive on two occasions I wrote it on my wall. I was going to back it anywhere it turned up and at any distance and any going.
I have not seen it since, until today it goes straight into G1 company at Deauville (2.50) That horse is Midtown a Godolphin horse trained by the genius Mr Fabre, currently available at 4/1. whatever it does today will set it up for the season.
An observation based on past and present. I have noticed that Fabre does not or rarely uses Barcelona on his other horses, he has to use him on Goldophin Horses. i follow Fabre religiously and i would love to be a fly on the wall for the conversation after that race, He managed to get beat by 2 outsiders because he chose to try to beat Battleground and forgot he had to beat the others also. IMHO, He Barcelona does plenty wrong far too often (remember pour moi in the derby?) he got away with that one. Midtown is a serious racehorse and i will get my money back soon as it runs next so im not bothered about losing but i do get a bit irked when jockeys think they are better than the horse.

Superlative stakes 315 Newmarket 7F 2yo  G2. speed figures.
1 Dhabad                       122     15/8
2 Mott and the Messer   121      25/1
3 Mr McGann                 119     9/1
That's a very skinny price for Dhabad I wont be touching that even with the wife's money.
Well that didn't turn out well but Native Trail needs keeping on your side.

Superlative stakes 315 Newmarket 7F 2yo  G2. speed figures.
1 Dhabad                       122     15/8
2 Mott and the Messer   121      25/1
3 Mr McGann                 119     9/1
That's a very skinny price for Dhabad I wont be touching that even with the wife's money.
Well that didn't turn out well but Native Trail needs keeping on your side.

Superlative stakes 315 Newmarket 7F 2yo  G2. speed figures.
1 Dhabad                       122     15/8
2 Mott and the Messer   121      25/1
3 Mr McGann                 119     9/1
That's a very skinny price for Dhabad I wont be touching that even with the wife's money.
Well that didn't turn out well but Native Trail needs keeping on your side.

Superlative stakes 315 Newmarket 7F 2yo  G2. speed figures.
1 Dhabad                       122     15/8
2 Mott and the Messer   121      25/1
3 Mr McGann                 119     9/1
That's a very skinny price for Dhabad I wont be touching that even with the wife's money.
Well that didn't turn out well but Native Trail needs keeping on your side.

Superlative stakes 315 Newmarket 7F 2yo  G2. speed figures.
1 Dhabad                       122     15/8
2 Mott and the Messer   121      25/1
3 Mr McGann                 119     9/1
That's a very skinny price for Dhabad I wont be touching that even with the wife's money.
Well that didn't turn out well but Native Trail needs keeping on your side.

Superlative stakes 315 Newmarket 7F 2yo  G2. speed figures.
1 Dhabad                       122     15/8
2 Mott and the Messer   121      25/1
3 Mr McGann                 119     9/1
That's a very skinny price for Dhabad I wont be touching that even with the wife's money.
Well that didn't turn out well but Native Trail needs keeping on your side.

I agree with you about jockeys, although with some of my systems I will exclude any horses that are ridden by claimers.

You are indeed correct about "win bets only" that is the bookies biggest loser. However, multiple bets are useful for those punters that don't have much money to spend on betting and its a good way of having a fun bet especially on tv races for small stakes. a good example is tomorrow ,11 races, a couple of lucky 15's (in tomorrows case 3) and you get a horse to watch in each race with a chance of getting a half decent payout..Although my main punt is win bets, i always do multiples as well (40p lucky 15s mainly cost 6 quid) because i get a lot of pleasure/fun out of them mainly because i put bigger prices on them. I Never back a jockey, there is not a jockey on the planet that can get a horse to go faster but there are many that can get them beat including the tops jocks.

You are indeed correct about "win bets only" that is the bookies biggest loser. However, multiple bets are useful for those punters that don't have much money to spend on betting and its a good way of having a fun bet especially on tv races for small stakes. a good example is tomorrow ,11 races, a couple of lucky 15's (in tomorrows case 3) and you get a horse to watch in each race with a chance of getting a half decent payout..Although my main punt is win bets, i always do multiples as well (40p lucky 15s mainly cost 6 quid) because i get a lot of pleasure/fun out of them mainly because i put bigger prices on them. I Never back a jockey, there is not a jockey on the planet that can get a horse to go faster but there are many that can get them beat including the tops jocks.

Well managed to nab a good placed GG (Sam Maximus)  at 40/1 despite my nap (Dig Two) totally bombing out to come plumb last, too bad to be true.
So we go again with a bunch of not that impressive 2yo's in the Duchess of Cambridge stakes Group 2. 2:25 Newmarket.
1 Hello You                117       11/4
2 Ellade                     116       40/1
3 Sandrine                115       15/8
3 Desert Dreamer     115       12/1
 
Looking at that lot the obvious bet is Ellade @ 40/1. To Win if your man enough or EW if your one of those cautious sensible types. (Well hard men go for the whopping Forecast)
managed to get the fc and tc there pity i couldn't get the big price in but it was exciting for a while

thoughts on the tv races
150 mandoob is a very quick animal
205 pennypot lane is a speculative punt
225 dig two (see above)
300 jadwaal must have a chance in this
335 al aasy is dodgy at that silly price so im not going to bother.

A bumper day’s racing with 11 terrestrial TV races to salivate over. To be honest I like many others feel there’s too much racing on this particular Saturday and it seemed to work better last year when the meetings were split over two days. Anyway here’s my thought on the days fare :-
 
York 145
Yet another big field handicap, this one over a mile and the ground at York is likely to be on the slow side with the odd shower forecast. Only two three year olds take on their elders here and at this time of year they receive a healthy 9lb allowance which may swing the favour of Tim Easterby’s Wobwobwob who will appreciate the cut in the ground and looks good each way value. A ready winner here over 7F in May here he was a tad disappointing on very bad ground in the Silver Bowl handicap at Haydock in May when attempting to make all and maybe failing to get home in those conditions. He’s relatively lightly raced against some pretty exposed handicappers and can run well at an each way price. 
WOBWOBWOB 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345
 
Newmarket 205
A valuable 3 year old 7F handicap can go the the proven handicap form horse of Sir Michael Stoute’s in Samoot. She ran a screamer at Royal Ascot when chasing him the easy Irish winner Create Belief in the Sandringham Handicap and despite a 3lb rise in the weights looks sure to go close here with William Buick taking over from Jim Crowley who’s at York to ride Hukum for his retained owners. Chris Wall’s Kingmania is on a hat trick of victories and maybe the biggest danger to the daughter of Dubawi. 
SAMOOT 2 points win @ 3/1 Bet365
 
York 220
The Group 3 John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes is run over the Ebor distance of just short of 1m 6F. Best in at today’s weights is the Roger Varian trained Ebor winner Fujaira Prince but we haven’t seen him this season and preference is for the Owen Burrows trained Hukum who is stepping up to this distance for the first time since last season’s St Leger when he finished 5th to Galileo Chrome. He followed a listed Goodwood win with a decent 3rd beaten 3L by Wonderful Tonight in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and sports a first time tongue tie today. Jim Crowley had options to ride at three meetings today and it looks highly significant that he travels to Yorkshire to ride Burrows’ flagship horse. Ilaraab was 4 3/4L behind Hukum at Ascot and needs to find some improvement to trouble the selection. Quickthorn is an interesting runner who’s stepping out of top quality handicaps into pattern company and also stepping up in distance. He’s worth a small each way saver. 
HUKUM 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365
QUICKTHORN ½ point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 123 
 
Newmarket 240
Charlie Appleby’s lightly raced Dubawi colt Royal Fleet looks a potential group horse in a handicap here and can make his initial mark of 93 laughable by winning this. A winner at Kempton on the polytrack and at Yarmouth when heavily backed on fast ground he should be hard to beat with William Buick in the saddle. Latest Generation is respected following his second place at Sandown last time with Kaheall who’s chasing a four timer worth an honourable mention but fir me this is all about Royal Fleet. 
ROYAL FLEET 3 points win @ 13/8 BetVictor
 
 
Ascot 300
The Group 2 Summer Mile will be run on officially soft (good to soft in places) ground as at time of writing with the odd shower forecast. The race has an open look about it with only officially 9lb between the whole field. I think the key piece of form for this race comes from the Listed Midsummer Stakes at Windsor a fortnight ago when Century Dream beat Top Rank by 1 1/2L with the latter now 5lb better off which should bring them closer together. Sir Busker has his ground here and ran well at the Royal meeting to place behind Palace Pier. He looks sure to run well. Softish ground maybe against Haqeeqy and Tilsit but the vote goes to Charlie Appleby’s Al Suhail who hasn’t been seen since flopping in the Dubai Turf at Meydan last March. Gelded since the reports are that he’s working very well and his trainer also sounded fairly bullish when asked about him on RacingTV on Friday afternoon. 
AL SUHAIL 2 points each way @ 8/1 Bet365 1/5th 123
 
Newmarket 315
The Group 2 Superlative Stakes is run over 7F and is for 2 year olds only. John And Thady Gosden saddle the likely favourite in Dhabab who brings the best form to the race with his slightly unlucky 6th in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. He’ll appreciate the step up to 7F here and looks the one to beat even though the Coventry form was hardly enhanced by the 2nd and 5th being beaten on Day one of the July meeting all be it not disgraced. As a form man I would normally take substance over promise but sometimes you see a horse win and want to back him or her wherever they run next and Native Trail is very much the case here. Trained by Charlie Appleby he was backed off the boards when winning a Sandown maiden on his debut by 4L (3rd and 4th beaten since) and although this is a big step up this Oasis Dream colt could be anything and I’ll take my chance with him and William Buick. 
NATIVE TRAIL 2 points win @ 7/2 BetVictor  
 
Ascot 335
A very competitive 5F handicap to be run over the straight course on good to soft ground where if the Royal meeting was to be believed there maybe an advantage to be drawn on this near side (high numbers). I do like one of the 5  three year old’s in the field in the shape of Tim Easterby’s Showalong who needs to get his toe in so any further showers would be appreciated but he is drawn on the far side in 4 so will keep stakes small on him. I’ll take one on this side as well with the in form Boundless Power trained by Mick Appleby who comes here having won two of his four starts this season since joining from John James Feane in Ireland on soft ground and is berthed in stall 18 which could be a good draw (especially with the stalls placed on the stands side here). Significantly is the likely favourite having won the 5F 3 year old only handicap at the Royal meeting and looks a threat to all for the Karl Burke team. 
BOUNDLESS POWER 1 point each way @ 12/1 1William Hill 1/5th 12345
 
Newmarket 350
A maximum field of 20 go to post for this year’s renewal of the Banbury Cup run over the straight 7F of the July course and as always it looks wide open. William Haggas’s Ametist is a horse who just seems to do enough and just got up last time but a 6lb penalty for that win means he’s 3lb wrong at today’s weights and he’s overlooked for that reason alone. Perotto on the other hand is 5lb well in here carrying just a 5lb penalty for winning the Britannia Handicap at the Royal meeting and despite dropping back a furlong is on my shortlist. Also on that list is the John and Thady Gosden  trained Fundamental who is even better in here than Perotto being 6lb well in. There are plenty of others with chances including last year’s winner Motakhayyel who’s back to defend his title off of a 4lb higher mark but I’ll be splitting my bets between Perotto and Fundamental, the only two three years in the field who surprisingly haven’t won this valuable handicap since 1998 (though not a lot have tried). 
FUNDAMENTAL 1 point each way @ 17/2 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345
PEROTTO 1 point each way @ 5/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345
 
York 405
The John Smiths Cup looks as competitive as ever being run over just over 10F with a maximum field of 22 going to post. Favourite is Sir Michael Stoute’s Astro King who ran a stormer when winning his side at Ascot in the Royal Hunt Cup finishing 2nd overall to Real World. I’m not entirely sure a step up to 10F is what he needs and at the prices is opposable. Joseph Tuite’s Surrey Pride is a horse I have a lot of time for and is the selection despite his draw of 24 which is not ideal but has been overcome in the past. Best in a today’s weights is Dawaam although he may have been flattered by his 8th last time in the listed Wolferton Stakes at Ascot. Saeed Bin Suroor’s Bright Start is 2lb well in and is a horse who could go well here. But it’s a small each way bet on Surrey Pride for me with enhanced place terms. 
SURREY PRIDE 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345
 
Newmarket 425
This year’s July Cup run over 6F of the July course is a cracker with 19 quality sprinters going to post. Last year’s victor Oxted is back to defend his title that hasn’t been won back to back since Lester Piggott on Right Boy back in 1958/59. He was behind Ed Walker’s Starman first time out at York who’s  my main selection here. He literally could be anything having won 4 of his 5 starts with his only defeat coming on very soft ground at Ascot last Champions Day. Fast ground is important to him and he can show his class here today under Tom Marquand having missed Ascot because of the soft ground. Three year olds have a good record in the race winning 4 of the last 6 renewals and tieing 38 a piece with their elders since 1945 and are well represented here by the likes of the supplemented Rohaan, Dragon Symbol and Creative Force (who apparently did a very good piece of work in the week shooting 6L clear of decent workhorse On The Warpath). All three have claims and at a bigger price so does Clive Cox’s Supremacy who had an excuse when bombing out at Ascot in April on his re-appearance (came back with some bad blood results) and his trainer speaks in the same breath of him as his two previous winners Harry Angel and Lethal Attack. So it’s Starman for me with a small each way saver at a big price on Supremacy. 
STARMAN 2 points win @ 9/2 William Hill
SUPREMACY ½ point each way @ 18/1 1/5th 12345
 
 
York 440
Winter Power
The listed 5F John Smith’s City Walls Stakes completes the day’s action and has a warm favourite in the Tim Easterby trained  Winter Power who is best in here at these weights and was very impressive when taking the field apart over course and distance in May in the Weston Listed Stakes storming home 3L clear of his field headed by subsequent Sandown Listed winner Atalis Bay. He raced a bit too freely when only 9th in the Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes at the Royal Meeting and has a major chance today. Que Amoro’s form figures here read 21132 including a runner up in the Nunthorpe last August. On Fast ground she would be a big player but easy ground may not suit and with showers forecast I’ve got to stick with Winter Power. 
WINTER POWER 3 points win @ 15/8 William Hill
 
 
 
 
 
 

@The Equaliser A 10p lucky 63, £6.30 on @The Brigadier selections returned 107.58 My advice to you last night to shadow the brigadiers selections for a while was the best tip your going to get this year. Well done The Brigadier excellent tipping and info.

@The Equaliser A 10p lucky 63, £6.30 on @The Brigadier selections returned 107.58 My advice to you last night to shadow the brigadiers selections for a while was the best tip your going to get this year. Well done The Brigadier excellent tipping and info.

@The Equaliser A 10p lucky 63, £6.30 on @The Brigadier selections returned 107.58 My advice to you last night to shadow the brigadiers selections for a while was the best tip your going to get this year. Well done The Brigadier excellent tipping and info.

It is the case that returning forecasts and tricasts are hammered by the bookies, some of them are shocking beyond belief but you have to work with what is available and the best way to think of FCs is if your selection is a decent price lets say 10/1 or greater then pic another and put it in a forecast for small stakes ish unless your confident then u can use a higher stake. one of the main problems with punters they seem to be more worried about losing so are dismissive of what they perceive to be "longshots" 

Little bit of friendly advice, You have lost over 300 quid of your bank, might i suggest you stop whatever it is your doing and find something different, seems to me other peoples opinions are losing your money. Might i also suggest you will never win backing favs in any form. the only thing you should be reading is the results section of the racing post weekender, watch (not listen) to as much racing as possible and have a notebook to hand, if you get a small population of horse from notes and back from your notes irrespective of price you can drop lucky, use Lucky 15s instead of trixies because if you get 1 winner they double the odds, you wouldn't believe the difference that makes especially if that 1 winner is a decent price. Many people are very wary of bigger priced horses when they should be wary of the short priced ones, al aasy today was just one example Charlton managed to get 2 odds on shots beaten yesterday. every day add up how many short priced horse get beat if you don't believe what i am saying. if you saw my betting book you would be horrified at the sheer amount of bets i have and the losers i get, but because i very rarely back favs so when i do win it wipes out my loses and produces a profit. Now I will contradict myself here--- @The Brigadier has a totally different approach to me, but I am guessing he is very measured it is obvious he knows his horses and he publishes them here so why not shadow his selections (or choose 3 or 4 of them) for a while?

It's normally selections that I might be interested in trading (gen laying initially) for a place on the exchanges. Ie weak 1st /2nd favs that are short priced. I'll note down a few of these  and if I don't actually lay them at the time will have a look nearer the race and if they have shortened then, if I don't feel like entering the market on the exchanges which is a different discussion, I will oppose them with a forecast as the other selections drift. 5-7 runner races work best I've found, esp handicaps, low grade in particular and tracks where even in small fields trouble in running is a regular occurrence. It does help to have a laying mindset though and, also the individuals own approach to handicapping the field and having a feel for what the prices should be.Roughly I'd want the prices on my forecast sele tions to be at least 20- 25% greater than what I feel they should be. 
 
IE 5/1.rather than 4/1
However if there has been massive market moves to a very short priced fav I'd normally avoid the event and if there partic connections involved. Jamie, Spencer top of the list for one.