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Zilzalian

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    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

    Some interesting and contrasting views on cashout, might as well have my two pennerth on that while I’m in pontificating mode!

    1. It’s pretty much an irrelevance to me, I regard it as a “new fangled” invention by the bookies (for their benefit) and pretty much never even look at it. Probably not that unreasonable given the way I bet. Most of my betting is on anytime goalscorers and that’s not a market where cashout would be much use. I could look at it for betbuilders I suppose (e.g. where 2 of the 3 elements are already in) but it never crosses my mind and I’m confident that the offer would represent bad value in most cases. That said, I can see why it’s more of interest if you’ve got a bet across multiple races with a huge potential payout.
    2. I’m confident that most punters would be better off taking the same approach and ignoring it. They will be losing money by taking it as often as they do. The return they are being offered will usually represent bad value. If it wasn’t profitable for them the bookies wouldn’t offer the facility and they are selective about where they do and don’t offer it to further increase their advantage.
    3. Where viable, most punters could probably close their position more favourably on an exchange if they were willing to expend a little time and effort.
    4. It’s a comfort blanket for most punters who use it, as it’s nice to take a frequent modest profit rather than endure long losing runs waiting for the bumper payout. Understandable from a psychological viewpoint but still the wrong choice based on the mathematics.
    5. Those punters who feel they “do alright from it” are no doubt right in as much as they may be making a profit from it and that they’re more comfortable in betting in a more conservative fashion but they will almost certainly be losing out in the long run. I’m curious as to whether any of the pro-cashout punters can say exactly how much better or worse off they are compared to letting every bet run. Over, say, the last 100 bets would be interesting but over the last year would be great. I suspect most don’t track that though. Maybe start noting the +/- difference for a while, preferably till the next time they hit a full house. Some actual “lived” numbers would be good. It’s hard to believe that @MCLARKE or @The Equaliser would’ve been better off if they were inclined to reach for the cashout button every time a bet got off to a decent start.

    @LEE-GRAYS is the cashout king and the bookies have had his pants down a good few times recently but here's the thing you play a lucky 15 to win big once in a blue moon and do lets say okay overall picking up singles doubles and the odd decent treble. If you go with the cashout option then you will never win big which is the whole point of the bet, banged on a few times on here why bother doing the bet in the first place if your going to cash out? The advantage the bookies have is that to get "the biggie" you must get the 1st 3 so you are assuming that your only loser is going to be the last leg every time which is stupid. So they dangle the nr carrot and silly sods (no malice intended) fall for it. Now the real problem comes in when you cash out and lose out on thousands, I dont know about other people but i for one wouldn't be able sleep for months and i say that with the proviso that for me the money aspect is least important aspect, the fact i made a prat out of myself taking a cashout hurts my brain. Bottom line if your spending  around £3 quid as most do looking at the posts then £3 quid is all you can lose, once you cash out you may be losing hundreds if not thousands even tho your winning. Very short price lucky 15's (not worth the effort in my opinion) is a different matter because it comes closer to the NR so it will never be a biggie anyway, Having said all that, lets assume you have winners at 14/1 9/1 10/1 and your last leg is say between 1/1-2/1 then okay the cash out may be justified. The other scenario is if you get a loser and 2 winners then cashout probably need a little thought because you already lost "the biggie".  As a general rule and for 98% of all L15's is DON'T CASH OUT is my opinion which is based on literally well over 10,000' of L15 bets  placed over 30+ years. if you add on to those the 24x L15 per day (in 4x4 array) i used to put on at work with the G manager for 20 years that's a hell of a lot of lucky 15'S.

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    In the long term you will be better off using lucky 15s if you are betting with the traditional bookmakers, assuming that you can obtain the best prices with one bookie. The downside is that the losing runs will be longer.

    @The Equaliser losing run was almost 7 months this year and i have been banging my head for 5 of those months telling him that the only way he will wipe out those loses will be with at least a treble on a lucky 15 for some strange reason only known to himself he kept ignoring the advice and carried on with 20p singles and  0p trixies.. once he eventually switched to lucky 15's Well what do you know a lucky 15 gets him into profit, now all he has to do is stop trying to cover his loses ie 2 horses in the same race there were 50 races to choose from  yesterday, he will argue that it was the losing L15 he really fancied (solid) i would argue that first one was a "safety bet" (non were even placed) have also been trying to tell him that backing 2 horses in the same race means he has deliberately backed a loser before the race has even run so backing 4 races x 2 horses is lethal and will soon wipe out his new YTD if he carries on. it will be interesting to see what he does going forward. having said all that i am pleased to see him get into the black.

    Racing Chat - Thursday 15th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    13 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    RESULTS UPDATE

    At long last I am in a YTD profit.  One of my L15's and accas won with three winning selections and a non-runner.  This produced a profit of 189.53 points + a small return on an ew bet meant a profit for the day of 190.23.  After deducting my YTD loss of -133.92 I am now in YTD profit of 56.31 :clap

    I rest my Fookin case....................

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    An example of how poor the cash out option is.

    I've had 2 losers and a 16/1 winner so I'm guaranteed £3.30 whatever happens.

    The cash out is £3.32 compared to £14.30 if I'm Mable wins.

    So in effect I can cash out for 2p or continue for a further £11 if I'm Mable wins, I'm being offered 550/1 for a 6/1 shot.

    I do warn people 😂💩

    Racing Chat - Sunday 11th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    There is often good each way value in extra place races, especially where 6 or more places are on offer

    I take what you say Micheal as a fair point, here is where we differ a tad most don't deal with betting the way you and lets say harry rag do (analytically/data based) most are quite random in how they select horses i speak generally to those that don't know all there is to know and that is not to do them down or anything it is the way it is and that's how bookies make money. There is a big difference with betting to make money and people who just like to have a bet in the hope of winning now and again. lets be honest many wouldn't even bother or just don't have the time to check through all the races for the extra places/value.

    Racing Chat - Sunday 11th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

    One thing I'd say (given the absence of any bonuses for either option) is add a 4th selection and do a L15. You won't get a great return for 2 places unless we're talking big odds so I'm not sure it's worth it doing the trixie e/w. Win trixie and e/w treble maybe. One things for sure, when you get all 3 you'll wish you'd just done the treble and when you get 2 in you'll wish you'd done the trixie; c'est la vie!

    If you've got an edge then I guess the trebles will provide the best return; the trebles multiply your edge more than doubles. But the losing runs will be worse.

    I agree with adding a 4th selection but if not then It all depends on the Prices. With most ew's being 5th odds these days it seems pointless to me, I do do the occasional ew L15 but more often than not i might just tag on a ew acca (a just in case bet) as long as the odds justify it. Personally i deem double figure (all 4 in a L15) prices as justification but dont always bother. I wouldnt touch ew in less than 4 selections just not worth it long term  in may opinion.

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    @Torque Yep what you say is true, i have said on here in the past, basically they offer the non runner on the last leg, or two nr's if you have two winners to start and two to run. Interestingly there have been a couple of occasions where common sense dictated that i cashed out, a few years ago i had 2 winners going onto a 66/1 shot then the last leg was around 4/1, cut a long story short i had put the same bet (20p L15) on twice at the same time. the 66/1 shot was backed down to under 10/1 the more it got backed the bigger the cashout, it reached £290 from a starting point of £55 so i cashed one of the Lucky 15's out. other occasions where one might CO is where your last leg is a short price ie under 2/1 because the CO wont be too far off the end result of a winner. Having said all that, As a general rule never cash out unless you have a very very good reason to is my opinion based on 40+ years experience because as you have pointed out it is a real bookie scam and bears very little on the odds/chance involved. I am talking about Lucky 15, 31 63 and yankees et al, straight accas i will leave to other to debate as i don't do them eg football et al.

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