calva decoy

The 'experts 'writing off gaelic warrior, so guess he's a banker now, lol

Who needs Cheltenham !
AW selection
Southwell 8.00
MOULIN BOOJ

2.50 TRELAWNE 15/2 ( 6 places ) fell 
3.30 IRISH POINT 6/1 ( 3 places ) 2nd 9/2 
4.10 TELLMESOMETHINGGIRL 14/1 ( 3 places ) 2nd 22/1 
4.50 LIARI 8/1 ( 6 places ) 👎
10p eway lucky 15 all prices bet365 & b.o.g. ( will watch recording when get home from work 🤞 ) 
Staked £3.00
Returns £1.95 

There's lots of scrolling about to find the relative Cheltenham thread atm & was just going to add that looks like a fair bit of rain due tomorrow morning & going will be soft , which is good , as long as it doesn't go heavy which there's a chance on Cross Country Course for Wednesday's race .

After looking at the first day decs i can see W.Mullins bagging 4 or 5 winners with 6 of the 12 in the Supreme , hope I'm wrong , he had a lot of odds on favourites turned over at the Dublin Festival but his 2nd & 3rd string those days were most probably their seasonal pinnacle races .
I fancy G.Elliotts NDAAWI 17/2 in 4.50 , he's won 3 of last 6 renewals of this race . 3rd 12/1 , missed out on b.o.g. but risk you take going early .
 
Sky Bet are giving all cash back on the Supreme maximum bet £5 in which I did MYSTICAL POWER 7/2 .
Galileo out of Annie Power , some breeding , quirky type , still green but very talented & best of all , if it comes last , I get my cash back 👍 2nd , got cash back & good run for my money .

There's lots of scrolling about to find the relative Cheltenham thread atm & was just going to add that looks like a fair bit of rain due tomorrow morning & going will be soft , which is good , as long as it doesn't go heavy which there's a chance on Cross Country Course for Wednesday's race .

2.50 TRELAWNE 15/2 ( 6 places ) fell 
3.30 IRISH POINT 6/1 ( 3 places ) 2nd 9/2 
4.10 TELLMESOMETHINGGIRL 14/1 ( 3 places ) 2nd 22/1 
4.50 LIARI 8/1 ( 6 places ) 👎
10p eway lucky 15 all prices bet365 & b.o.g. ( will watch recording when get home from work 🤞 ) 
Staked £3.00
Returns £1.95 

After looking at the first day decs i can see W.Mullins bagging 4 or 5 winners with 6 of the 12 in the Supreme , hope I'm wrong , he had a lot of odds on favourites turned over at the Dublin Festival but his 2nd & 3rd string those days were most probably their seasonal pinnacle races .
I fancy G.Elliotts NDAAWI 17/2 in 4.50 , he's won 3 of last 6 renewals of this race . 3rd 12/1 , missed out on b.o.g. but risk you take going early .
 
Sky Bet are giving all cash back on the Supreme maximum bet £5 in which I did MYSTICAL POWER 7/2 .
Galileo out of Annie Power , some breeding , quirky type , still green but very talented & best of all , if it comes last , I get my cash back 👍 2nd , got cash back & good run for my money .

Probably better to put comments on this normal daily thread (although it will have Cheltenham in the title to make it easier for new members who are attracted by the Cheltenham festival).

Will be interesting to see how this one gets on in the 2:50 tomorrow.

After looking at the first day decs i can see W.Mullins bagging 4 or 5 winners with 6 of the 12 in the Supreme , hope I'm wrong , he had a lot of odds on favourites turned over at the Dublin Festival but his 2nd & 3rd string those days were most probably their seasonal pinnacle races .
I fancy G.Elliotts NDAAWI 17/2 in 4.50 , he's won 3 of last 6 renewals of this race . 3rd 12/1 , missed out on b.o.g. but risk you take going early .
 
Sky Bet are giving all cash back on the Supreme maximum bet £5 in which I did MYSTICAL POWER 7/2 .
Galileo out of Annie Power , some breeding , quirky type , still green but very talented & best of all , if it comes last , I get my cash back 👍 2nd , got cash back & good run for my money .

There's lots of scrolling about to find the relative Cheltenham thread atm & was just going to add that looks like a fair bit of rain due tomorrow morning & going will be soft , which is good , as long as it doesn't go heavy which there's a chance on Cross Country Course for Wednesday's race .

C'mon the big outsiders ....Stuff the favourites & short ones!!!

I backed Constitution Hill as well as Marine Nationale & Galopin Des Champs in an ante post treble , so none of the above  , it's STATE MANS to lose imo .

Fancy APPLE AWAY IN THE LAST TOMORROW 10/1 from 16s @bet365 .

I backed Constitution Hill as well as Marine Nationale & Galopin Des Champs in an ante post treble , so none of the above  , it's STATE MANS to lose imo .

After looking at the first day decs i can see W.Mullins bagging 4 or 5 winners with 6 of the 12 in the Supreme , hope I'm wrong , he had a lot of odds on favourites turned over at the Dublin Festival but his 2nd & 3rd string those days were most probably their seasonal pinnacle races .
I fancy G.Elliotts NDAAWI 17/2 in 4.50 , he's won 3 of last 6 renewals of this race . 3rd 12/1 , missed out on b.o.g. but risk you take going early .
 
Sky Bet are giving all cash back on the Supreme maximum bet £5 in which I did MYSTICAL POWER 7/2 .
Galileo out of Annie Power , some breeding , quirky type , still green but very talented & best of all , if it comes last , I get my cash back 👍 2nd , got cash back & good run for my money .

I backed Constitution Hill as well as Marine Nationale & Galopin Des Champs in an ante post treble , so none of the above  , it's STATE MANS to lose imo .

Cheltenham 1.30 The 2024 Cheltenham Festival kicks off with a dozen novice hurdlers facing the tape for the usual curtain raiser the 2M 87 yard Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Willie Mullins sets a poser by saddling six of the field and with stable jockey Paul Townend choosing Tullyhill, he looks sure to be thereabouts. It may be Mullins’s arch Irish rival Gordon Elliott though that takes first blood with his Firefox. He beat the very smart Ballyburn on his hurdling debut at this trip and although blowing out in the Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle in January, that was over 2M 4F and back to the minimum trip and with Jack Kennedy in the plate can get us off to a flyer. He’s worth backing each way with the firms who are paying an extra place.   FIREFOX 1 point each way @ 5/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   Cheltenham 2.10 A fair sized field of ten line up for the My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Novices’ Chase run over just short of two miles. Ireland have won six of the last 9 renewals and that can be extended here with the Gordon Elliott trained Found A Fifty. He went down by a neck to Il Etait Temps at the Dublin Racing Festival in February and there shouldn’t be much between them here today on identical terms. Willie Mullins runs three with Paul Townend on board Gaelic Warrior who’s been runner up at the Festival in the last two years. He does have questions to answer now though after a lack lustre effort at the Dublin Racing Festival with his tendency to jump out to the right a negative here. This looks one for the Irish with Found A Fifty just shading it.   FOUND A FIFTY 1 point each way @ 11/2 BetVictor 1/5th 123   Cheltenham 2.50 The first handicap of the week is the 23 runner Ultima Handicap run over 3M 1F. As always it’s an open race where you will need plenty of luck in running. Last year’s fourth The Goffer and Willie Mullin’s Meetingofthewaters both holding decent claims but this is a race that normally goes to the home team and it can go the way of Kim Bailey. Bailey has two in the race and although I have slight preference for Chianti Classico it’s also worth backing his other runner Trelawne. Both are novices with the former having only his fourth start over fences. He appears the pick of stable jockey David Bass who will be throwing the horse into the fences whilst Harry Cobden has the ride on the latter who’s novice form over fences stacks up well and he should relish a step up to today’s distance.   CHIANTI CLASSICO 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 123456 TRELAWNE 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456   Cheltenham 3.30 Despite the defection of reigning champion Constitution Hill we still have a field of eight for the Unibet Champion Hurdle run over 2M 87 yards. Willie Mullins has the very warm favourite in State Man who has won ten of his 12 completed starts under rules and was runner up last year. He is officially 10lb and upwards better than these and it will be a big shock were he not to win. I ca see him being very well backed and going off more a 1/4 shot at post time. He’s hard to oppose with second favourite Irish Point dropping a mile in trip having impressed at Leopardstown over 3M at Christmas. Nicky Henderson supplemented Iberico Lord last week and although on figures he has plenty to find he is an improver who loves soft good, has good form at the track and the form of his Betfair Hurdle victory at Newbury last time out was franked at the weekend in the Imperial Cup. He can make the frame but this is all about State Man who should win.   STATE MAN 2 points win @ 4/11 Unibet   Cheltenham 4.10 A field of eleven go to post for the 2M 4F Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle. A warm favourite here is the Willie Mullins trained Lossiemouth who was a winner at the Festival last season in the Triumph Hurdle. She looked good when re-appearing in the Unibet Hurdle here on trials day in January and if in the same form will be hard to beat. The one question mark against her mind is the fact that she has yet to race over today’s trip. She wasn’t stopping at the end of her victory last time over 3 furlongs shorter though and connections appear to have no fears of her not staying. However at around the 4/7 mark she is scant value and even though she should win I’m happy to back one against her each way who we know will love the ground, trip and track in the shape of Harry Fry’s Love Envoi. She won the Mares’ Novices Hurdle in 2022 and was runner up in this last year to Honeysuckle. She does have some distance to make up with Lossiemouth on Unibet Hurdle form but at a double figure price she is maybe the value.   LOVE ENVOI 1 point each way @ 16/1 William Hill 1/5th 123   Cheltenham 4.50 A maximum field of twenty two line up for the 2M 87 yard Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. It has a wide open look about it with big priced winners amongst the roll of honour over the last decade. A chance can be given to many with French trainers Noel George & A Zetterholm holding every chance with one of two J P McMnaus owned runners in the shape of Milan Tino. He’s already got experience of the track having finished third to useful sorts Burdett Road and Sir Gino. At a much bigger price it maybe worth chancing Paul Nolan’s runner Palamon who has the look of one that’s been brought along with this race in mind. A 79 rated horse on the level for Richard Hannon he showed his best form so far over timber when third (beaten 3 3/4L) to the re-opposing Ndaawi and is now 13lb better off. The fourth from that race has won since to give it a boost and although Ndaawi won cosily that day the turn around in the weights may give the chestnut a chance of getting closer at a big price. Many others can be given chances but it’s Milan Tino and Palamon for me.   MILAN TINO 1 point each way @ 13/2 Unibet 1/5th 123456 PALAMON 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 123456   Cheltenham 5.30 A small but select field of seven go to post for the 3M 6F Maureen Mullins National Hunt Challenge Cup for amateur riders. The two favourites surprisingly are both racing in a fist time hood and slight preference is for the Emmet Mullins trained Corbetts Cross who may well have won at this fixture last year but for crashing out at the last in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle, which is a good guide to the likely winner of this contest. He does have to prove himself over this longer trip as like his biggest danger, the Willie Mullins trained Embassy Gardens but looks all about stamina and can give Derek O’Connor his third victory in the race. Some firms are paying three places on this seven runner contest so it may also be worth a small each way bet on the only horse who has raced beyond 3M in the Sara Bradstock trained Mr Vango who wears first time cheek pieces and was a 60L winner of a handicap over today’s trip at Exeter. He has officially 22lb to find but with some of these having stamina to prove could stay on into a place at a big price.   CORBETTS CROSS 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365 MR VANGO 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 123

CHELTENHAM STATISTICS
Based on the last 10 years
 
SP rank in previous race 4 to 8. 59 winners from 1,285 runners, LSP 506 (Betfair Starting Price.
 Bred in Ireland. 146 from 2,387, LSP 413.
120 winners (43%) ran at just 3 courses last time, Leopardstown (65), Cheltenham (38) and Naas (17). From a total of 1,243 runners the profit was 386 points.
 Race distance same as previous race. 90 from 1,232, LSP 366.
 Poor run last time (in bottom third of field). 42 from 913, LSP 236.
 Race value no more than or no less than 40% of previous race. 84 from 1,033, LSP 209.
 Ran in a stakes race last time. 210 from 2,793, LSP 206.
 Ran in a Group 2 or Group 3 race last time. 87 from 1,178, LSP 206.
 Distance won by last time 3 lengths to 14 lengths. 97 from 727, LSP 92.

After looking at the first day decs i can see W.Mullins bagging 4 or 5 winners with 6 of the 12 in the Supreme , hope I'm wrong , he had a lot of odds on favourites turned over at the Dublin Festival but his 2nd & 3rd string those days were most probably their seasonal pinnacle races .
I fancy G.Elliotts NDAAWI 17/2 in 4.50 , he's won 3 of last 6 renewals of this race . 3rd 12/1 , missed out on b.o.g. but risk you take going early .
 
Sky Bet are giving all cash back on the Supreme maximum bet £5 in which I did MYSTICAL POWER 7/2 .
Galileo out of Annie Power , some breeding , quirky type , still green but very talented & best of all , if it comes last , I get my cash back 👍 2nd , got cash back & good run for my money .

After looking at the first day decs i can see W.Mullins bagging 4 or 5 winners with 6 of the 12 in the Supreme , hope I'm wrong , he had a lot of odds on favourites turned over at the Dublin Festival but his 2nd & 3rd string those days were most probably their seasonal pinnacle races .
I fancy G.Elliotts NDAAWI 17/2 in 4.50 , he's won 3 of last 6 renewals of this race . 3rd 12/1 , missed out on b.o.g. but risk you take going early .
 
Sky Bet are giving all cash back on the Supreme maximum bet £5 in which I did MYSTICAL POWER 7/2 .
Galileo out of Annie Power , some breeding , quirky type , still green but very talented & best of all , if it comes last , I get my cash back 👍 2nd , got cash back & good run for my money .

Get that pro plus in ready  @MCLARKE 😁

After looking at the first day decs i can see W.Mullins bagging 4 or 5 winners with 6 of the 12 in the Supreme , hope I'm wrong , he had a lot of odds on favourites turned over at the Dublin Festival but his 2nd & 3rd string those days were most probably their seasonal pinnacle races .
I fancy G.Elliotts NDAAWI 17/2 in 4.50 , he's won 3 of last 6 renewals of this race . 3rd 12/1 , missed out on b.o.g. but risk you take going early .
 
Sky Bet are giving all cash back on the Supreme maximum bet £5 in which I did MYSTICAL POWER 7/2 .
Galileo out of Annie Power , some breeding , quirky type , still green but very talented & best of all , if it comes last , I get my cash back 👍 2nd , got cash back & good run for my money .

After looking at the first day decs i can see W.Mullins bagging 4 or 5 winners with 6 of the 12 in the Supreme , hope I'm wrong , he had a lot of odds on favourites turned over at the Dublin Festival but his 2nd & 3rd string those days were most probably their seasonal pinnacle races .
I fancy G.Elliotts NDAAWI 17/2 in 4.50 , he's won 3 of last 6 renewals of this race . 3rd 12/1 , missed out on b.o.g. but risk you take going early .
 
Sky Bet are giving all cash back on the Supreme maximum bet £5 in which I did MYSTICAL POWER 7/2 .
Galileo out of Annie Power , some breeding , quirky type , still green but very talented & best of all , if it comes last , I get my cash back 👍 2nd , got cash back & good run for my money .