Villa Chris

@Wildgarden some of the regulars in here may be able to help you 

Top rated won as expected. Belfast Banter out ran his odds which is good to see. 
Disappointing from Mcfabulous to not win this . The winner seems to have got his spark back now back over hurdles but for all the talk on Mcfabulous I’d be a bit underwhelmed he got beat here, and beat easily. Reserve Tank didn’t finish too many lengths back and I’d keep an eye on him next time out as this was his first run for nearly a year. 

Aaron's day 6th ...bytgesametoken 2nd at 25/1!!....good run by the value bet 

No I go off hcap mark .....if hes got a lighter weight hes taking on classier opposition ......unless the trends say low weights do well ....like the grand national....then I'd give bonus to low weights 

Top rated won as expected. Belfast Banter out ran his odds which is good to see. 
Disappointing from Mcfabulous to not win this . The winner seems to have got his spark back now back over hurdles but for all the talk on Mcfabulous I’d be a bit underwhelmed he got beat here, and beat easily. Reserve Tank didn’t finish too many lengths back and I’d keep an eye on him next time out as this was his first run for nearly a year. 

2 decent value bets today with BOYLESPORTS.
FONTWELL 3.10 BREWINUPASTORM 11/4, edge 18%.
NAAS 5.30 HIGHLAND CHARGE 5/2, edge 14%.

Fontwell 3.10 Grade 2
McFabulous 9, 4/5(7/2) no value 2nd 
Brewing’ upastorm 7.75, 5/2(4/1-9/2) no value won 
Reserve Tank 7, 22/1(9/2-5/1) value 
Reserve Tank has some excellent hurdle form from his hurdling days. Comes back to this sphere from chasing and has been off for a bit now so probably best watched. The favourite looks solid anyway and should win. Practise ratings. 

3.00 Naas Grade 2
Echoes In Rain 6.2, 13/8(7/2) no value won 
Razzle Dazzle Love 5, 7/2(5/1) no value 
Belfast Banter 4.85, 11/1(11/2) value2nd  
Just a practise. 

Champion hurdle bet 2
14 of last 15 were within 8lb of top rpr 
Leaves 
Goshen
Sharjah 
Silver streak 
Epatante 
Honeysuckle 
Sharjah form isnt good enough I think ......so omit ....goshen although fancied didnt run at grade1 track lto 15/15 and poor at chelt....I think he prefers right handed ....so happy to scrub .....this goes to a up and coming improving lightly races type so silver streak 25 runs is way out so scrub that too ...I know he beat epatante but hes lightly races and we all know hes better than that and a reversal at chelt wouldn't be a shock ....that leaves ....
Epatante 
Honeysuckle 
Personally I dont think epatante has shown their hand yet and is very capable of running a champion hurdle winning performance at chelt with good course form .....safest bet as I initially said is dutch the 2 
Honeysuckle 20ptsxwin 3/1 
Epatante 20pts win 7/2 
Outlay 40 ...minimum return 80 (+40pts ).....I'm happy with that bet 
 

Lol ....145 plus 7lb is 152 
136 plus,24lb is 160 ....
Thanks for clearing that up ???

3.00 Naas Grade 2
Echoes In Rain 6.2, 13/8(7/2) no value won 
Razzle Dazzle Love 5, 7/2(5/1) no value 
Belfast Banter 4.85, 11/1(11/2) value2nd  
Just a practise. 

Getting as much big race practice as I can on my days off so I'm ready ...
5.00 naas 20 runners 
You say nothing 7.4 499 8/1 15/2 no value 
Aaron's day  6.4 476 14/1 2/1 poor value 
Bua boy 6.3 451 14/1 16/1 value bet
No memory 6.3 420 14/1 25/1 good value 
Bydesametoken 6.3 484 14/1 14/1 value 
Moonlight glory 6.2 430 14/1 14/1 value 
Combination of mine and ratings leaves 
You say nothing 15/2  499
Aaron's day  2/1 476 6.4
Bydesametoken 14/1 6.3 484 
 
I'll try ew bets you say nothing and bytgesametokens 6places with sky 
And 6 x1pt forecasts 
 

I'm thinking that's 1 race down ...only 27 to go now !!..???

I've really had a good look through the form .....metier beat shakemup harry by 12 lengths in the tolworth ....could have been 15 if wanted ....that equates to around 25 lbs so if you check other horses behind it all suggests hes potentially a 164 rpr horse.....that's almost champion hurdle level ....so I think hes more than capable of taking appreciate it on .....and the trends fit him better than appreciate it .....its metier for me 
Appreciate it beat ballyadam a rpr 147 ...by 3.5 lengths ....suggesting hes around the 156 mark .....I think metier has the beating of him  
Couple that with the fact in 3 races metier has destroyed his opposition by over 30 lengths in total ...on the bit ....all suggests he could be something special .....I think hes a future champion hurdle winner  ...maybe even next years ....what an exciting first race !!!

Just having a look at the supreme novices with view to early bets 
Past 11 years all winners had recorded a rpr of 143 plus ....that cuts the field of 40 to 
Any news 144
Appreciate it 152
Ballyadam 147
Blue lord 144
Bob bollinger 152
Champagne gold 144
For pleasure 144
Grumpy Charlie 145
Irascible 145
Metier 153
Soaring glory 146
Tge devils coachman 145
Third time lucky 145
14 ......not bad at all 
12 of last 14 won last time .......leaves 
Appreciate it 152
Bob bollinger 152
Grumpy Charlie 145
Metier 153
Soaring glory 146
The devils coachman 145

I reckon the winner is almost certainly on this shortlist 
I dont want a hccapper they just aren't good enough so that leaves 
Appreciate it 152
Bob bollinger 152
Metier 153
The devils coachman 145
I'm almost certain the winner is one of these 4 .....I'll do more research before finalizing my bets
Edit ....think I can safely drop the devilscoachman ....doesnt look like a supreme novice ... probably a 145 at best so hes scrubbed 
Appreciate it 152 
Bob ollinger 152 
Metier 153
Appreciate it fails on both age ...7 yo ....and course form ...all previous winners had no form or a chelt win if they had run there...he finished 2nd....that makes his 7/4 quote crap so ... I think hes worth taking on with big bets ew on the other 2 at 7/1 and 20/1!!!.....fav could still win but hes got to buck 2 serious trends that total 24 of the last 27 winners .....that's just too high ......the other 2 have equally good form so yes I'll play big and hope to get the festival off to a mega,start ....especially if the big one comes in 
Edit ....bob olinger trainer has stated he might go for the bsllymore ....but collateral form with appreciate it suggests he could beat him so hopefully hell see sense and take him on ...I would lol .....if he runs I'd make him a 4/1 shot so the 12/1 nrnb is a shot to nothing .....I'll take 20pts ew ......also I'll take metier nrnb 20pts ew 

This went better 

2nd rated wins wasn't value so didn't follow sadly lol cathedans fury ran decent race maybe put off slightly at the end. One to watch!

This went better 

Using Trends helped today ..narrowed from a potential 6 to 2 ...hopefully the marriage of the 2 at cheltenham where the trends are even stronger ...  will really pay dividends .....going to be a lot of fun 

This went better 

Clondaw castle wins .....with the value bet erik le rouge 2nd ....really happy with that in such a difficult race ...aso was a none runner so they were 2nd and 3rd rated 

Newcastle 3.15 
Crossley Tender 9/1 ew
Kempton 3.35
Double Shuffle 10/1 ew
The Butcher Said 11/1 ew 
 
 

  The form of Double Shuffles last win has turned out strong. 
 
Second went on to finish second again 
Third won next time up 
Fifth went on to finish second 
Sixth won next time up 
He’s 5Ibs higher now but he’s a proper Kempton horse and will enjoy good ground . 

1.15 Kempton-WHITE MOON 33/1 Has had another wind op is decent when right has a squeak e/w.
3.15 New- BIG RIVER 15/2 looks to have a solid e/w shout.
3.35 Kem- I'll take 3 e/w against the field some bookies paying 6 places YOUNG WOLF 25/1 FINGERSONTHESWITCH 11/1 DOUBLE SHUFFLE 12/1.

Newcastle 3.15 
Crossley Tender 9/1 ew
Kempton 3.35
Double Shuffle 10/1 ew
The Butcher Said 11/1 ew 
 
 

  The form of Double Shuffles last win has turned out strong. 
 
Second went on to finish second again 
Third won next time up 
Fifth went on to finish second 
Sixth won next time up 
He’s 5Ibs higher now but he’s a proper Kempton horse and will enjoy good ground . 

3.35 Kempton 
Double Shuffle 8.45, 10/1(13/1) no value 
Cap Du Nord 8.2, 5/1(13/1-14/1) no value 
The Butcher Said 8.15, 11/1(14/1) no value 
Slate House 7.75, 12/1(15/1)  no value 
Black Corton 7.65, 9/1(15/1) no value 
not much value but I’ll play top rated and  The Butcher Said ew . I’m glad The Butcher Said rated highly because I think he’s set up to win a nice pot and this could be it. 
 
Double Shuffle 10/1 5 points ew 
The Butcher Said 11/1 5 points ew