Villa Chris

Glad to see you have  Fingerontheswitch & Vintage Clouds in your ratings that the two i have backed e/w for 7 places at 33/1 & 16/1....not too old for me many a good tune played on an old fiddle.

Coral cup weds 
Craigniche...7.8
Thomas Darby  7.7 
Botox has   7.3
Monte carlo  7.3
Grand Roi   7.3 
Boreham bill  7.1 
After applying trends I'm left with 
Craigniche 12/1 
Botox has 16/1 
Grand Roi 7/1 
20pt on each 

Grandxannual weds 
Chosen mate  7.4
Western miller  7.2 
Embittered     7.1 
Ibleo 7
Skypirate    7
Us and them 6.8 
Wide open as youd expect....western Miller is 50/1 .....has ti improve on recent form but I'll go for it .....its cheltenham you never know 
Too 3 20pt wins ...14/1 .... 50/1 ...6/1 

Final bets for day 1 
Supreme 
Metier already backed 20pt ew 7/1 
I think fav will be hard to beat but metier is training well at home and ready to give it his best 
Champion hurdle 
Sticking with the girls....honeysuckle I have 20pts 3/1 .....epatante who I think will win 20pt at 9/2 
Ultima 
Happygolucky   
Cepage 
Discordantly 
20pt on each 
 
Boodles 
Saint sam 
Busselton 
Her indoors 
Tinnahalla none runner...replaced with sage advice 

It’s disappointing but at least we have a festival . The supreme has completely broken up. 

Supreme final ratings 
Appreciate It 8.25
Metier 8
Ballyadam 8
These 3 clear of the rest and the field has completely broken up which is not great . Appreciate It might be left to make the pace which is no problem for him at all, but pity it’s such a small field. I’ll play the top 3 as sky are offering money back and I’ll use Metier as my money back bet. Paying 3 places on the place money 
Appreciate It 6/1
Ballyadam 12/1 ew 
Metier 4/1(money back if loses)

It’s disappointing but at least we have a festival . The supreme has completely broken up. 

There’s a reason why he rides so many winners and rides a lot of favourites for big trainers . He’s clearly not overrated. Only so much a jockey can do, if the horse isn’t playing ball there’s nothing a jockey can do. Horses are not machines and jockeys are only human, and will make mistakes . 

There’s a reason why he rides so many winners and rides a lot of favourites for big trainers . He’s clearly not overrated. Only so much a jockey can do, if the horse isn’t playing ball there’s nothing a jockey can do. Horses are not machines and jockeys are only human, and will make mistakes . 

There’s a reason why he rides so many winners and rides a lot of favourites for big trainers . He’s clearly not overrated. Only so much a jockey can do, if the horse isn’t playing ball there’s nothing a jockey can do. Horses are not machines and jockeys are only human, and will make mistakes . 

I’m going to have a go at ante post betting for the next festival . Probably start around October/November time. What I will say is that Shiskin will be running in the queen mother champion chase  2022  festival so if you fancy him for that bet now, because if he pisses the arkle he’ll be a’lot shorter for the champion chase . Monkfish will be in the gold cup in 2022 and will shorten again if he pisses his race this festival . You can get some crazy odds of you go in early but obviously there’s big risk. 

Well I am done now until Tuesday, with my Cheltenham bets.
I have been having bits and pieces on different horses since January. 
I am limited with bookies I can use, being abroard, so I was not able to get NRNB.
I have just gone through what I am holding
Losses incurred on Presenting Percy (Gold Cup) At The Acorn (Kim Muir) Lecales Article ( Ballymore....this actually runs in a Mickey Mouse race today)
But I got Ballyadam 29/2 ( Supreme), Melon 27/2 and Allaho 6/1 ( Ryanair) Santini 12/1 and 14/1 (Gold Cup) Cabot Cliffs 14/1 (Boodles) Tritonic 9/1 (Triumph) Annie Mac 18/1 (Mares Chase)
I took a price on a Kilcruit/ Honeysuckle Double, which would pay less than if I put the bet on today!!
And I got a Melon 27/2 /Burrows Saint 21/1 (National) In an ew double
Plus lots of silly Lucky 15 bets.
Can't wait for Tuesday

Champion Hurdle 
Honeysuckle 9.5
Epatante 9
Silver Streak 8.9
Abacadabra 8.4
Sharjah 7.9
Goshen 7.75
Top 6 rated . Surprised Silver Streak rated so high but saying that he’s a very good horse and runs well at Cheltenham finding the odd one or two  too good usually. I’ve got 10 points on Honeysuckle covered with Monkfish 8/1 for the double so I think I’ll let that one roll. Epatante is superb as we know but is prone to the odd bad day and she won’t be able to afford to have a bad day here. I had Aba a few weeks back when he was 12/1 ew in the hope that he’d get G/S which it looks like he will. Quirky type but I honestly think he’s genuine top class and will go very close. 
 

My ratings for the Ultima 
Coko Beach 9.9 (multiple entries )
Remastered 8.5(multiple entries)
Storm Control 8 (multiple entries )
Just Your Type 7.7(multiple entries)
Aye Right 7.55( one entry)
Aye Right is definitely racing in the Ultima and Richard Johnson has been booked to ride. I expect him to go higher up in the ratings as I think some above him will drop out . He fits a lot of trends. I was worried about his weight but looking back over the years it’s not that uncommon for horses carrying a big weight to win . 

I'll try post some jumps winners Cheltenham. Paddy doing 3 £5 free bets if you have an account too and eligible for the offer.

Going to review the trends for The Ultima again. We need a horse who’s younger than 10. Novice chasers and second season chasers have a good record in this. They make up 10/12 last renewals . Horses that have run at a previous festival tend to do well. 

The Ultima Handicap Chase, Cheltenham 
Coko Beach 9.9 ,12/1
Remastered 8.5 ,11/1
Storm Control 8 ,20/1 
Just Your Type 7.7, 66/1
Aye Right 7.55, 10/1 
Milan Native 7.5, 16/1 
The Irish have a poor record in this race so that leaves question marks over Coko Beach and Milan Native. Coko Beach is also rated 151 so will be carrying too much weight, along with Aye Right who is 154. Storm Control and Just Your Type seem too exposed to win this with the latter only rated 132 and fell on his only run at Cheltenham. Storm Control has got a very good course record though and rated a nice 142 which is the average rating of the winner of this race. Remastered seems to tick a lot of trends, although hasn’t ran at festival before which is a negative . 
Will review ratings once final decs are set in stone 

Too windy on the roofs today so just got back home . I’m going to sort through that first day at Cheltenham I think. I’m happy with the supreme . I’m not touching the Arkle. The rest I’ll rate. 

I’ll have a go at that race on Sunday once final decs are declared. 

Right ......race number 1 .....ultima handicap ....currently I've rated 28 runners but 23 ran last year ....
Happy go lucky   8.5 11/1 11/2 no value 
Cepage  7.7  12/1 20/1 good value 
Vintage clouds  7.6 12/1 25/1 excellent value 
Nietsche 7.4 13/1  33/1 excellent value 
Remastered 6.6 14/1 14/1 value 
Didero vsllis 6.5  15/1 40/1 outstanding value 
Pym   6.5 15/1 33/1 excellent value 
That's my shortlist.....now to apply trends 
You really want a horse with top form over 21.5 f +....so we lose cepage and nietsche....leaving 
Happygolucky  8.5 
Vintage clouds  7.6 
Remastered   6.6 
Didero vallis     6.5 
Pym  6.5 
Runners from ascot last time have a diabolical record so we lose remastered 
Vintage clouds is 11 and outside the age range for this race 19/20 7  to 10 
Leaves 
Happygolucky  11/2 
Didero vallis   40/1 ew 
Pym   33/1  ew 
I'm happy with that as long as they all run 

Supreme novice hurdle 
Appreciate It 8.25 won 
Metier 8
Ballyadam 8 second 
Blue Lord 6.25 fell 
Appreciate it doesn’t fit some strong trends but neither do the others . It’s been a bit of a stop start season for novices which has produced a weak supreme IMO and I think Appreciate It is an above average supreme horse.  Bob Olinger will be going Ballymore I should think .  I’ve got Appreciate It covered well and have Ballyadam 12/1 ew. The safest thing to do is use my money back if loses bet on Metier but I’ll wait for him to drift a bit more as he’s now 9/2. 

Yes, some cracking posters on here for selecting horses . Brigadier is doing a fine job though . 

I was looking through some of my placepots returns and below is an example of a winning placepot . I did this for a 10p ( 72 lines ) ''total stake £7.20  and managed to double up so got the dividend for 20p worth .
The placepot was at southwell on the 4th aug 2020 and it paid £4,732.90...' so giving me back £946.58 for my 20p winning share.
 

Thats the thing with placepots . Prices are irrelevant ....the placepot is a pool bet ...so it depends on how many tickets / units are running on that placed horse.
However you want to try and get the favourite unplaced this is because lots of players just select the fav for each race. So if these are placed obviously more tickets / units will remain .
Indeed you can have 5 winners and the last leg let you down .
Always best to have at least 2 selections in the last race.
This is a story that I will never forget for the rest of my life and one that nearly made my life different. ................I did the jackpot once at ascot and I had 1st 5 winners .....and there was only 2 tickets remaining ....I had the fav and so did other ticket .
We were going to share the pool £602,000 ..... £301,000 each !!!
I put down Fav because it was 2-5 on in the paper .
To be honest I didnt expect to get to last race but when placing the bet I thought if I do get to last leg I want to be on one with a real chance.
Bearing in mind I had a 33-1 winner of the 1st leg and the 5th leg was a 25-1 of a 20 or so runner handicap.
Anyway I went in my local bookies to watch the race ....and everyone congratulated me because this horse couldnt apparently lose.
Before the race the 2nd fav was backed and on the off I was cheering my horse because it when 5 lengths clear and we were all cheering in the bookies because my horse won !!!!
Everyone was patting me on the back ....I had tears ...thinking I was going to buy a new house car ...also my son was only a few months old ...so going to get him everything he wanted ....all this excitement lasted 1 minute !!!
They returned the s.p .....the winner returned Joint Favourite !!!! and it was the highest cloth number of the two so I didnt win !!! Makes me sick now even typing it .....that changed my betting forever and I was in a trance for a week and just felt physically more so mentally ill ....I just kept on asking why ...why ...I couldnt believe it .
If I only had ticked the horse number instead of fav .....if only that initial 2nd fav wasnt backed ....gutted to this day .....but the only thing that I can say is ......its gambling and maybe one day I will hit big ....we all think that ....but thats the closest ...u cant get no closer to winning the jackpot.
So now you know why I dont tick fav even for placepot

Hi this how to calculate your placepot selections and the reason you may pick more than one selection per race :
The thing is like EW betting terms the placepot has the same terms :
1 - 4 runners  ( you must pick the winner )
5 - 7 runners ( your selection must finish in top 2 )
8 runners or more ( top 3 places )
16 runners (handicap) or more (top 4 places )
Reasons to pick more than 1 selection each race :
So considering you need to get the winner of a 4 horse race then it would be wise to pick at least 2 but personally I do all 4 to guarantee to get through that particular race.
5 runner races ...again at least 2 selections is wise . The reason being they might withdrawal one at the start meaning you have to get the winner of the race .
Big field races. Goes without saying that you can pick 3 or 4 in a race with 16 or so runners and still not one of then finish in the frame . So again wise to at least pick 2 in big fields.
Heres how you calculate your perms :
multiply selections race by race for instance :
race 1 ....4 selections
race 2 ....3 selections 
race 3 ...'2 selections
race 4....2 selections 
race 5 ...''3 selections
race 6 ...'2 selections
so 4x3x2x2x3x2 = 288 bets ( so 5p would be 14.40 stake )
so if you pick 2 sekections per race this would be 2x2x2x2x2x2 = 64 bets
you calculate your returns same way so for example :
race 1 ....2 of your sekections place
race 2 ....'1 of your sekections place
race 3....'1 of your selections place
race 4 ....2 of your sekections place
race 5 ....2 of your selections place 
race 6.....'2 of your selections place
2x1x1x2x2x2 = 16 ( so you have got the placepot up 16 x your unit stake ....so for 5p stake ...you would have it up for 80p )...'..'so if the placepot dividend was say 10,000 '.....'then you would get 8,000.
Hope this helps