cjsmith1972

As per last year there will be a Christmas Tipsters competition.
There is racing on terrestrial TV for 3 days from Boxing day onwards so I suggest we use these for the competition. At the moment this gives us 21 races.
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for any prizes Only bets on that day's thread will be included, bets posted eleswhere will not be included All welcome, good luck.

What a shame to log in and read this. Only started following your journey recently but you were putting up some fantastic selections and the forum will miss your fantastic input. Hopefully you reconsider but you need to do what's best for you.

1st       Returns £212
Bank  Dec. + £52

Trends for the Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Haydock.
Bred in IRE 3/77, elsewhere 5/42.
This reduces the field to 3, BASS ROCK, DANS LE VENT and GLADIATEUR ALLEN.
Not in the top 11 by weight 0/36.
This leaves DANS LE VENT, available at 14/1 with 5 places.

no changes to the selections for tonight 
1715 - 5 Appreciated    5/1 Bet365     2nd
1750 - 6 Locally Owned    10/1 Bet365  Unplaced
1825 - 3 Abscond     10/1 Bet365    4th
1905 - 4 Ce Ce     6/1 Willaim Hill  WON
1940 - 9 Kimari     10/1 William Hill   Unplaced
2019 - 3 Ginobili     5/1 Bet365    2nd
2059 - 8 Loves Only You      9/2 Bet365    WON
2138 - 9 Dr Schivel     5/1 Bet365. 2nd
2220 - 6 Mo Forza     6/1 Bet365  Unplaced
2300 - 2 Royal Flag     15/2 William Hill   Unplaced
2340 - 7 Walton Street    11/1 Bet365     Unplaced
0040 - 8 Medina Spirit      7/1 William Hill   2nd

im more confident about some more than others but hey ho,  good luck all whatever your on

Having gone through both the undercard and the main event itself here are my picks from each race

Friday Night
1855 - 11 Sumo      7/2 William Hill.        2nd 
1925 - 3 Degree Of Risk     7/2 Bet365.   3rd
1955 - 9 Vivacious Vanessa      7/1 Bet365  3rd
2030 - 9 Ambassador Luna     17/2 William Hill  Unplaced
2105 - 12 Finneus      11/2 Bet365.   WON
2150 - 7 Armor   10/1 Bet365  Unplaced
2230 - 3 Juju's Map   10/3 Bet365   2nd
2310 - 1 Pizza Bianca   17/2 William Hill  WON
2350 - 2 Jasper Great    25/1 Bet365  Unplaced
0030 - 14 Dubawi Legend    6/1 Bet365  Unplaced

will post Saturdays picks later,  good luck whatever your all on  be it for fun or real 

1st.      Returns  £520.            Second time lucky for me with this one.
Bank  Oct.  +£65

Hi guys
starting a place drip starting with a bank of £1000 and seeing where it will get to by new years day if i get there
max bet will be 10% of pot
 
1st bet today 3.00 Aintree
£100 Nuts well to place in first 3 @6/4
 
10 year old gelding who loves this trip and has run well here 2nd and a 1st
has a really decent record when ridden by Mcmenanin who has climbed the ranks quite nicely
Think its form is rock solid all over the places
 
 

Been a while since I wrote an Australian flat racing preview and I will cover the Everest and Caulfield Cup this week, but first of all I am going to take a look at race 1 at Kyneton which is due off at 3.30am. A maiden at a country track wouldn't usually catch my attention, but I have a share in one of the horses running in the contest called Beneficio. I will get to her chances at the end and will take a look at the main rivals first.
Rioyuki is favourite and it is easy to see why. She finished 2nd in the same maiden at Kilmore that Beneficio finished 4th in and she found herself too far back and then couldn't get the clearest of runs in the straight before finishing well for 2nd place. The winner looked very good and the time was quick as well. She had shown promise on her first start back in May and she will win races. The one possible chink is that she might need a bit further, but she does look the one to beat.
Gloved made her debut in a Listed race back in March and then was 2nd on the all-weather back in August. I don't think that was an overly strong race though so I am happy enough to pass her over.
There are a couple who are having their 2nd runs after being spelled after their first runs who could improve for the break, but they need to so the other main rival for me is Little Schnitty. She has had 7 runs already and has finished 2nd twice over 1200m before being well beaten at Flemington last time. She flew home and just missed in the first of the 2nds and was then beaten by a massive priced outsider in the 2nd of them. That Flemington race was only a BM64 and there were only 6 runners, but the winner won a G3 next time so as you expect it was a strong race. She will surely get her head in front eventually, but I don't think it will be here. NB has now been scratched.
So to Beneficio. She has plenty of speed from the gate as she showed last time and also in her two trials prior to that first run. She had to get across from a wide draw a couple of weeks ago so had to use a bit of speed up early and she ended up settling in behind the winner. She kept trying and was only just caught for 3rd right on the line. Kilmore is uphill all the way in the home straight so it was no real surprise that she just faded a little late on. As I mention above I think it is going to prove to be a strong form race because the winner looked impressive and the winning time was nearly 6.5L quicker than standard. The trainer has reported that she has come on for that run and is fitter. What I really like about her is that she is a real trier and she will keep going which she did really well when winning her last trial. With the run under her belt and on a flatter track I hope that she will see out the trip better. I'm still not sure if that will be enough to hold of Rioyuki who is obviously going to be chasing her down late, but at the very least I think she rates a cracking e/w bet as I would be a bit disappointed if she didn't hit the frame. Worth adding as well that the stable is in really good form as he had 3 winners at Cranbourne on Friday night and one on Thursday. I will be backing her win and place with Bet365 and staking more on the place part of the bet. I will also be backing Rioyuki to win the race.
Rioyuki @ 6/4 with Betfred
Beneficio @ 9/1 win and 1.85/1 place with Bet365
 

I think a big help in picking winners is an enthusiasm and passion for horse racing and finding winners, not to be confused with making money. I think there is no substitute for hard work if it was easy, we would all get rich and the bookies poor. The good thing is there are dozens of ways you could possibly get winners it is just a case of finding a way that suits and interests you and then putting in the work. data is everything you cant just guess (which many do), an old man once said to a younger foolish man "make sure you have a good reason to back a horse" seems obvious yes? he went on to say the more reasons you can come up with the better your chances of being right.

Kerching!

event_date time course selection betfair position 2021-09-26 15:00 Curragh Ruling 1.66 1 2021-09-26 16:25 Epsom Downs Danville 1.77 1 2021-09-26 17:50 Ffos Las Chepchik 2.52 1                         Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit     Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 94.93 74.93      

Month bets outlay return profit 8 31 620 703.98 83.98 9 26 520 573.37 53.37

1st.      Returns. £236
Bank.  Sep  +£328

Final speed figures I will be publishing this flat season.
150 newmarket
1 royal patronage               122                 won           7/2
2 one for the gutter            121
3 coroebus                         118++            2nd           85/40
FC £10.39        EX £12.60
225 newmarket
1 sacred bridge                  125      flopped
2 zain cludette                     124      flopped
3 Sandrine                           124-     3rd                  3/1
Weird race Sandrine upheld the form but what happened? Looks like that rail is very fast but....
300 newmarket
1 armor                                128         3rd          9/1
2 perfect power                 127        won         11/4
2 caturra                              127
 
Cambridgeshire (already published elsewhere)
1 breath caught                   135           40/1            NR
2 chichester                        134           9/1
2 anmaat                             134           12/1             2nd
2 power of darkness          134           80/1 ew
Not really acceptable that group races and heritage H/caps (all day/week) are draw dependant at the UK's premier track. the ground was GF (as proofed by the race times) so you would expect it to have no variation unlike say soft ground where rain can get into the ground due to race traffic. Once again i think that watering has had an adverse effect. We should be talking about Horses not draw bias.
 
worth a look
450 newmarket   zabelle              20/1         lost
630 chelm           persian royal      2/1         crap
310 chest            flaming rib          3/1         won
 
 

I'll have a look at the trends for the Ayr Gold Cup. Quite a simple one today.
Drawn 1 to 7, 0 from 42.
1st 4 in the forecast betting, 4 from 24, others 3 from 121.
This leaves 2, POPMASTER (15/2) and BIELSA (11/1). 6 places available.

Won. BSP 4.60.
45 / 120, LSP + £37.96.

Won. BSP 6.13.
Monthly profit £273.36.

I have been watching and occasionally posting on here, as of today I intend to post regularly.
The bets I will be posting are from something I have been working on/ using , for some time with decent results. 
During AUGUST it produced 89 selections, of which 43 won (around 48%). This was at an average price (B.O.G.) of around 9/4, making a profit of 54.77 pts in August. Losing run was 6 , winning run 4. I would suggest following for a while to see if it continues. *** Also, I don't do Sundays *** It is quite time consuming and I take Sunday off to rest and do something different. The selection process is logical IMO and different.
Todays selections with B365 B.O.G. prices
3.40 Bath - Nellie Moon (11/4) ... lost 3rd 4/1
5.20 Ham - Kilconquhar (5/1) ... WON
5.35 Worc - Rebel Roxy (4/6) ... lost 2nd 8/11
6.50 Ham - Forza Orta (4/5) ... WON
7.20 Ham - Iris Dancer (13/8) ... lost 2nd 
7.50 Ham - Temper Trap (13/8) ... WON
Mixed day, 3 winners and 3 losers 
+4.42 pts

Hope you dont mind me saying but if all your horses are placed but didnt win you would only win £1.34 I am assuming this is 16pew L15 whereas if they all won you would win £66.71 for the win part and still only 1.34 for the place part. At 32p win lucky 15 if all won you would win £133.42. 1 Loser and you would win £32.64 just for the best 3 prices and £15.88 for your worst 3.  (Profit) what i am saying is you will only be risking £1.34 to possibly gain £66.71. (if say the prices of your horses were say all 5/1 or more then the EW is feasible).
Free Bet Calculator - Calculate Your Sports Bet Returns Online (free-bet-calculator.co.uk) you might find this a very handy tool

1:50 Zain Claudette
2:25 Symphony Perfect
3:00 Baashir
3:35 Loving Dream
4:10 Alflaila
4:45 Forbearance
5:20 Star Of Emaraaty
 

1.50  Mountain Peak
2.25  Noble Truth
3.00  Youth Spirit
3.35  Alcohol Free
4.10  Bodyline
4.45  Tenaya Canyon
5.20  Wonderful World
Good luck everybody!

1.50  Mountain Peak
2.25  Noble Truth
3.00  Youth Spirit
3.35  Alcohol Free
4.10  Bodyline
4.45  Tenaya Canyon
5.20  Wonderful World
Good luck everybody!

1.50  Mountain Peak
2.25  Noble Truth
3.00  Youth Spirit
3.35  Alcohol Free
4.10  Bodyline
4.45  Tenaya Canyon
5.20  Wonderful World
Good luck everybody!

Aye! Really impressive Great results by @cjsmith72

Congrats @cjsmith1972!  Your tips were great.
 
Thanks for running the contest @MCLARKE, it must have been a task keeping track of everything.

Well done cjsmith72 for winning the competition and thanks to MClarke for running it!