Racing Chat - Wednesday 1st of September

[Zilzalian]

Some people have been following the thread I have been putting on daily in August, namely the 40p fun lucky 15.

Thoughts and critiques welcome. I have a follow up later.

 

 

[MCLARKE]

What would the returns be at level stakes ?

[Zilzalian]

Think you may have twigged it.

 

[Zilzalian]

26 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Think you may have twigged it.

 

My intention was to show the less experienced, real betting examples, that its not what you do but how you do it, we are both @MCLARKEin agreement that most times it is not wise to expect to win very often betting in multiples, the only serious way to expect to make money from Horse race betting is the win single (I didn't bother working the ew aspect out because i very rarely do ew) Oddly enough the lucky 15 aspect to this demonstration has produced about the worst returns for 30 bets i have on my records, I often (at least 1 in 30) manage to find a treble which at the prices i bet at usually returns well, as do some of the doubles (also poor in this sample). but it has served its purpose in what it highlights. the other thing i wanted to highlight was that if you dont keep records and look at what you are ding on a regular basis then the chances are that you will miss something that can make a big difference.

 

Edited August 31, 2021 by Zilzalian
omission

[peanut peanut]

Singles look good with a nice return of 24 points plus and ROI 20%

Are you going again in September 

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, peanut peanut said:

Singles look good with a nice return of 24 points plus and ROI 20%

Are you going again in September 

No I am not going again on here in September, this was extra work on top of what i normally do and i don't like the idea of being obligated to post it every day.

[roger2256]

Sept 0

1pt level stakes win only 

13.50 Utt Kendelu 12/1 

16.10 Bat Zefferino 7/1

Prices as of now b365 

[yossa6133]

13 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

My intention was to show the less experienced, real betting examples, that its not what you do but how you do it, we are both @MCLARKEin agreement that most times it is not wise to expect to win very often betting in multiples, the only serious way to expect to make money from Horse race betting is the win single (I didn't bother working the ew aspect out because i very rarely do ew) Oddly enough the lucky 15 aspect to this demonstration has produced about the worst returns for 30 bets i have on my records, I often (at least 1 in 30) manage to find a treble which at the prices i bet at usually returns well, as do some of the doubles (also poor in this sample). but it has served its purpose in what it highlights. the other thing i wanted to highlight was that if you dont keep records and look at what you are ding on a regular basis then the chances are that you will miss something that can make a big difference.

 

Could have had a very good day if all 4 had won though. Would the make up of the lucky 15 be important? eg having a short priced banker? I've always done win singles on the horses, trebles and silly accumulators for the football ?

[The Equaliser]

BEST OF THE BEST

I didn't do this for all of August but for the period I did do it for these made a loss.  I will now put these up throughout September at one point per selections, time willing, and record a cumulative total throughout.  I will settle the bets at the prices quoted prices since favourites can be really shortened up at SP.  I am putting half a point on other selections at prices I could have got on either Bet365 or Betfair which I have accounts for.  I will just quote the saddle cloth number to save typing.  I have purposely spent less than 5 minutes on choosing these selections as I it has been said that our poor experts are under a time limit pressure to choose their selections and as such give out rubbish information.  I am doing this so as to even up the time taken to make selections.  This being so I will not be placing money on these selections but will use them to see if at the end of the month if I do better or worse than our illustrious tipsters.

With the Big 3, you can either back them, back against them or for the "bleeding obvious" of what is to be expected as quoted by @Valiant Thor why not "Lay" them.

4.45 Bath Vive La Danse 15/8         Alt (1) 11/4 & (3) 7/1 1/2 pt win on each = the same for all the following alternatives

1.30 Lin Beholding 4/7 DTR            Alt (2) 9/4 & (3) 7/1

2.30 Lin Kimngrace 13/8 DTR         Alt  (9) 10/3 & (5) 4/1

3.30 Lin Clegane 7/2                      Alt (1) 3/1 & (4) 5/1

2.20 Uttx Du De Bourban 10/11 DTR  Alt (3) 13/2 & (6) 15/2

3.50 Uttx Richie Valentine  7/2 DTR  Alt (2) 4/1 & (1) 8/1

2.05 Gow Mother Country 10/3        Alt (1) 7/2 & (7) 11/2

2.35 Gow Fly Girl 5/4 DTR              Alt (4) 9/2 & (3) 6/1

4.05 Gow Rekero 3/1 DTR             Alt (9) 9/4 & (3) 9/1

4.30 Worc Mix Of Clover 15/8         Alt (5) 9/4 & (4) 6/1

5.00 Worc Quyartz Du Rhea 6/4 DTR   Alt (1) 7/2 &  (5) 4/1

7.05 Worc Galata Bridge 6/5        Alt (3) 6/1 & (2) 13/2

4.50 Ham Edward Cornelius 5/4 DTR  Alt (2) 4/1 & (3) 6/1

6.50 Ham Forza Orta 8/11                  Alt (4) 10/3 & (2) 8/1

7.50 Ham Temper Trap  2/1 DTR      Alt (2) 15/2 & (6) 8/1

[LEE-GRAYS]

a few outsiders 50p e/w

Gowran park

1.35 Common practise 40/1

3.35 red heel 9/2 

Linfield 

4.35 Global acclamation 5/1 winner

Uttoxeter

1.50 Uno mas 14/1 winner  25/1 bog

2.20 seeborough 12/1 placed 

4.20 Le pogues storm 20/1 placed 25/1 bog 

Bath

3.40 Horsefly 10/1 

4.10 zest of zambia 7/1 

Worcester 

7.35 Our rockstar 7/1 

Hamilton 

5.20 Mutawaffer 20/1

g/l all lee bet365

Edited September 1, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, yossa6133 said:

Could have had a very good day if all 4 had won though. Would the make up of the lucky 15 be important? eg having a short priced banker? I've always done win singles on the horses, trebles and silly accumulators for the football ?

Well the biggest mistake with lucky 15's is people tend to lump 4 favs or short priced horses on them so when they do win the returns are really poor so in my opinion not worth the time or effort. So in answer to your question, win singles should be your priority, the lucky 15's are a bit like a side bet, something to watch on tv or your stream feed, so the cheapest option you have is a 10p lucky 15 for £1.50 i quite like 40p L15  for £6, dont know why its just something i settled on maybe because you can do 3 of them for under £20. i put on any price that i think is a good price for that race, handicaps for example often produce prices of 10/1, 16/1 20/1 and so on. as long as you have at least 2 selections around 10/1 or greater and avoid favs if you can then you have a good chance of a half decent return even if you get a treble, all 4 winning is a major bonus and does not happen very often. but for me the entertainment value/buzz you get from these bets especially if you kick off with a decent price winner is well worth the risk/money. lets bob in an example, lets say all 4 horses win at 8/1 your returns from a 10p lucky 15 will be about a grand, 3 winners about a hundred, 2 winners a tenner not bad for £1.50 stake. one thing i will say is never cash out, ever, because that's what the bookies want you to do. they usually offer cash out at the price of a non runner which is ridiculous. just imagine cashing out on the bet of a lifetime, you would be distraught if it then won. If you dont cash cash out and your selection loses take it on the chin and accept what you won. There will always be another time.

[Bang on]

I have been watching and occasionally posting on here, as of today I intend to post regularly.

The bets I will be posting are from something I have been working on/ using , for some time with decent results. 

During AUGUST it produced 89 selections, of which 43 won (around 48%). This was at an average price (B.O.G.) of around 9/4, making a profit of 54.77 pts in August. Losing run was 6 , winning run 4. I would suggest following for a while to see if it continues. *** Also, I don't do Sundays *** It is quite time consuming and I take Sunday off to rest and do something different. The selection process is logical IMO and different.

Todays selections with B365 B.O.G. prices

3.40 Bath - Nellie Moon (11/4) ... lost 3rd 4/1

5.20 Ham - Kilconquhar (5/1) ... WON

5.35 Worc - Rebel Roxy (4/6) ... lost 2nd 8/11

6.50 Ham - Forza Orta (4/5) ... WON

7.20 Ham - Iris Dancer (13/8) ... lost 2nd 

7.50 Ham - Temper Trap (13/8) ... WON

Mixed day, 3 winners and 3 losers 

+4.42 pts

Edited September 1, 2021 by Bang on

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Lingfield 3.30

EPSOM FAITHFUL 5/2

[azzybear]

amalfi Bay 2.00

[yossa6133]

I wasn't thinking of 4 shorties, more like having 1 banker (say in the even money to 6/4 range), that way you should be getting some doubles and trebles from it.

[azzybear]

conflated 4.40

[LEE-GRAYS]

a couple of big outsiders

6.35 worcester free degrees 80/1 4 places e/w/e lost ?

7.05 worcester alioski 60/1 5places e/w/e placed ??

50p e/w bet365

Edited September 1, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS

[Wildgarden]

6 hours ago, Bang on said:

I have been watching and occasionally posting on here, as of today I intend to post regularly.

The bets I will be posting are from something I have been working on/ using , for some time with decent results. 

During AUGUST it produced 89 selections, of which 43 won (around 48%). This was at an average price (B.O.G.) of around 9/4, making a profit of 54.77 pts in August. Losing run was 6 , winning run 4. I would suggest following for a while to see if it continues. *** Also, I don't do Sundays *** It is quite time consuming and I take Sunday off to rest and do something different. The selection process is logical IMO and different.

Todays selections with B365 B.O.G. prices

3.40 Bath - Nellie Moon (11/4) ... lost 3rd 4/1

5.20 Ham - Kilconquhar (5/1)

5.35 Worc - Rebel Roxy (4/6)

6.50 Ham - Forza Orta (4/5)

7.20 Ham - Iris Dancer (13/8)

7.50 Ham - Temper Trap (13/8)

got kilconquer (was due well handicapped imo) forza iris in my picks....

[LEE-GRAYS]

2 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

a couple of big outsiders

6.35 worcester free degrees 80/1 4 places e/w/e lost ?

7.05 worcester alioski 60/1 5places e/w/e placed ??

50p e/w bet365

Out £2 in £6.50 +£4.50 ?

[fd1972uk]

6 hours ago, azzybear said:

amalfi Bay 2.00

Tried a silly double double and had Amalfi Bay and the 3rd favourite at the time, was trying something off a first race with only a few horses that came up, but the favourite at the time on 200 drifted out to 4/1 and ended up winning at better odds than the other 2 which came in, lol. Not the wisest plan. 

Did a last minute bet at Worcester using a free bet, bet 2 horses against Galata Bridge (had chose that on paddy power beat the drop and was halfway to jackpot). Winner came in at 5/1.

[LEE-GRAYS]

8 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

a few outsiders 50p e/w

Gowran park

1.35 Common practise 40/1

3.35 red heel 9/2 

Linfield 

4.35 Global acclamation 5/1 winner

Uttoxeter

1.50 Uno mas 14/1 winner  25/1 bog

2.20 seeborough 12/1 placed 

4.20 Le pogues storm 20/1 placed 25/1 bog 

Bath

3.40 Horsefly 10/1 

4.10 zest of zambia 7/1 

Worcester 

7.35 Our rockstar 7/1 

Hamilton 

5.20 Mutawaffer 20/1

g/l all lee bet365

Good day Out £10 In £26.53

 

[MCLARKE]

7 hours ago, Bang on said:

Mixed day, 3 winners and 3 losers 

A 70%+ return is an excellent day (unless you are @Wildgardenwho achieves 127% !).

[MCLARKE]

7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Lingfield 3.30

EPSOM FAITHFUL 5/2

Won BSP 3.09.

38 / 109, lsp + £27.25.

[Zilzalian]

8 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

I wasn't thinking of 4 shorties, more like having 1 banker (say in the even money to 6/4 range), that way you should be getting some doubles and trebles from it.

I am assuming this is addressed to me, (you need to either quote my post or tag me) or i may miss it, each to their own, personally i spit on bankers they usually lose, beaten by a 33/1 shot ?

[Wildgarden]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

A 70%+ return is an excellent day (unless you are @Wildgardenwho achieves 127% !).

£100 to £127 a day i count as 127% maybe i got it wrong 27%

[Wildgarden]

11 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

a few outsiders 50p e/w

Gowran park

1.35 Common practise 40/1

3.35 red heel 9/2 

Linfield 

4.35 Global acclamation 5/1 winner

Uttoxeter

1.50 Uno mas 14/1 winner  25/1 bog

2.20 seeborough 12/1 placed 

4.20 Le pogues storm 20/1 placed 25/1 bog 

Bath

3.40 Horsefly 10/1 

4.10 zest of zambia 7/1 

Worcester 

7.35 Our rockstar 7/1 

Hamilton 

5.20 Mutawaffer 20/1

g/l all lee bet365

had global acclamation 12-1 last night from my shortlist... i know manumission didnt race but was 30p reduction so early still value...might be worth considering some early prices if available and u get bog still early. 

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

BEST OF THE BEST

I didn't do this for all of August but for the period I did do it for these made a loss.  I will now put these up throughout September at one point per selections, time willing, and record a cumulative total throughout.  I will settle the bets at the prices quoted prices since favourites can be really shortened up at SP.  I am putting half a point on other selections at prices I could have got on either Bet365 or Betfair which I have accounts for.  I will just quote the saddle cloth number to save typing.  I have purposely spent less than 5 minutes on choosing these selections as I it has been said that our poor experts are under a time limit pressure to choose their selections and as such give out rubbish information.  I am doing this so as to even up the time taken to make selections.  This being so I will not be placing money on these selections but will use them to see if at the end of the month if I do better or worse than our illustrious tipsters.

With the Big 3, you can either back them, back against them or for the "bleeding obvious" of what is to be expected as quoted by @Valiant Thor why not "Lay" them.

4.45 Bath Vive La Danse 15/8         Alt (1) 11/4 & (3) 7/1 1/2 pt win on each = the same for all the following alternatives

1.30 Lin Beholding 4/7 DTR            Alt (2) 9/4 & (3) 7/1

2.30 Lin Kimngrace 13/8 DTR         Alt  (9) 10/3 & (5) 4/1

3.30 Lin Clegane 7/2                      Alt (1) 3/1 & (4) 5/1

2.20 Uttx Du De Bourban 10/11 DTR  Alt (3) 13/2 & (6) 15/2

3.50 Uttx Richie Valentine  7/2 DTR  Alt (2) 4/1 & (1) 8/1

2.05 Gow Mother Country 10/3        Alt (1) 7/2 & (7) 11/2

2.35 Gow Fly Girl 5/4 DTR              Alt (4) 9/2 & (3) 6/1

4.05 Gow Rekero 3/1 DTR             Alt (9) 9/4 & (3) 9/1

4.30 Worc Mix Of Clover 15/8         Alt (5) 9/4 & (4) 6/1

5.00 Worc Quyartz Du Rhea 6/4 DTR   Alt (1) 7/2 &  (5) 4/1

7.05 Worc Galata Bridge 6/5        Alt (3) 6/1 & (2) 13/2

4.50 Ham Edward Cornelius 5/4 DTR  Alt (2) 4/1 & (3) 6/1

6.50 Ham Forza Orta 8/11                  Alt (4) 10/3 & (2) 8/1

7.50 Ham Temper Trap  2/1 DTR      Alt (2) 15/2 & (6) 8/1

RESULTS UPDATE

The Big 3 got 5 winners and 10 losers = -1.88 C/Fwd

Equaliser got 5 winners and 10 losers  = -4.23 C/Fwd

The Big 3 were very very lucky in the 5.00 at Worcester.  My horse Shoal Bay was 5 lengths in front 110 yards out and was full of running when the jockey's saddle slipped and unseated Brenden Powell.  I should have finished ahead of the Big 3.  But, hey that's racing

I hope that there are not as many qualifiers tomorrow

 

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

£100 to £127 a day i count as 127% maybe i got it wrong 27%

The ROI is 27%, still very impressive.

[LEE-GRAYS]

5 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

had global acclamation 12-1 last night from my shortlist... i know manumission didnt race but was 30p reduction so early still value...might be worth considering some early prices if available and u get bog still early. 

Yes that is true but I have a routine now of picking my horses at the same time each day which works for me I like to see market moves . Also it is swings and roundabouts I backed a horse yesterday 14/1 won at 25/1 so it evens it self out in the long run I hope ? cheers lee

[Wildgarden]

2 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Yes that is true but I have a routine now of picking my horses at the same time each day which works for me I like to see market moves . Also it is swings and roundabouts I backed a horse yesterday 14/1 won at 25/1 so it evens it self out in the long run I hope ? cheers lee

yeah with bog u would have 25-1 if using bog day before like bet 365 or ladbrokes before they may restrict from winning.