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Racing Chat - Tuesday 28th September


MCLARKE
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My girlfriend sometimes likes to pick out horses in running she thinks gonna win for a bit of a laugh, she picked no day never last time it ran at Chelmsford, it didn’t end up getting a clear run and jockey couldn’t get stuck in, please watch.

Anyways I said there and then that he would have saffie back on next time , also it’s back to the c and d of its novice run this time last year, please also take a look at that as first and fourth are now rated 90 plus. The handicapper must have been having a great day last time as it’s been dropped a pound plus saffies claim compared to last time, the horse that finished one place behind him has since come out and won a fillies handicap.

13/2 was opening price was clipped into 11/2 but now available at 6s, still got slight reservation whether it’s a monkey or not as races lazily and hangs left (shouldn’t be a problem at wolves) and a maiden but I reckon this is a cracking each way bet at 6s !!! Come on sexy saffie

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My girlfriend sometimes likes to pick out horses in running she thinks gonna win for a bit of a laugh, she picked no day never last time it ran at Chelmsford, it didn’t end up getting a clear run and jockey couldn’t get stuck in, please watch.

Anyways I said there and then that he would have saffie back on next time , also it’s back to the c and d of its novice run this time last year, please also take a look at that as first and fourth are now rated 90 plus. The handicapper must have been having a great day last time as it’s been dropped a pound plus saffies claim compared to last time, the horse that finished one place behind him has since come out and won a fillies handicap.

13/2 was opening price was clipped into 11/2 but now available at 6s, still got slight reservation whether it’s a monkey or not as races lazily and hangs left (shouldn’t be a problem at wolves) and a maiden but I reckon this is a cracking each way bet at 6s !!! Come on sexy saffie

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BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS TODAY

B/FWD SEP -10.73

These are not tips they are just a trial of the media online giant's selections

2.10 Ayr Capital Theory 2/1 DTR (13/8 LN)                                                       Alt (5) 7/4 steady

3.50 Ayr Casillie 3/1 (2/1 LN)                                                                            Alt (2) 11/4 (2/1 LN)

1.15 Cork Pirate Jenny 6/5 DTR (11/8 LN)                                                        Alt (8) 9/2 ( 7/2 LN)

1.50 Cork Clara's Approach 11/4 DTR (7/4 LN)                                                 Alt (9) 9/2 steady

4.35 Cork River Derwent 7/2 (10/3)                                                                 Alt (10) 5/1 steady

3.28 Worc Blue Sans 9/4 (2/1 LN)                                                                    Alt (1) 4/1 (11/2 LN)

2.00 Sed Ramure 5/4 DTR (11/8 LN)                                                                Alt (6) 10/3 (11/4 LN)

2.35 Sed Mr Caplan 10/11 DTR steady                                                            Alt (3) 4/1 (7/2 LN)

3.10 Sed Brother Pat 5/2 DTR (6/4 Early morn)                                               Alt (2) 4/1 (9/2 Early morn)

9 Selections out of 36 races = 25%

 

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September running total = + 18.16 pts

Seem to be struggling to get over the line this last week or so. Long term is what counts.

Todays selections - bet365 B.O.G.

2.10 Ayr - Mr Alan - 11/8 ... WON

3.50 Ayr - Noble Crusade - 7/2 ... lost 2nd 4/1

A small profit today, September now = + 18.53 pts

Edited by Bang on
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4 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

1410 Ayr Mr Alan 5/4 1.5pt win

1418 Worcester Wagner 5/1 1/2pt e/w (1pt total)

2000 Wolverhampton Pretty Sweet 2/1 1pt win

1410 Ayr Mr Alan & 2000 Wolverhampton Pretty Sweet 6/1 (with price boost) 1pt win

4.5pts staked total.

Few more up in a bit.

Mr Alan wins!

I messed up and actually had 2pts on him on the single so that returned 4.5pts giving me a 2.5pt profit.

Double also still alive.

Edited by Barnes1882
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  • MCLARKE changed the title to Racing Chat - Tuesday 28th September
1 hour ago, Barnes1882 said:

Just had a winner with Kats Bob 7/2 1pt. Of course I didn't get that one up in time. 

Been told No More Porter 1635 is decent but they're worried about the fav. Been told to back to place 3 places at 5/4. I've had 1.5pts on it to place. 

No More Porter 3rd so the place bet wins returning 3.5pts and a profit of 2pts.

Things are starting to come together the past few days.

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9 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

1410 Ayr Mr Alan 5/4 1.5pt win

1418 Worcester Wagner 5/1 1/2pt e/w (1pt total)

2000 Wolverhampton Pretty Sweet 2/1 1pt win

1410 Ayr Mr Alan & 2000 Wolverhampton Pretty Sweet 6/1 (with price boost) 1pt win

4.5pts staked total.

Few more up in a bit.

????

Beaten on the nod by a nose! An extra couple of yards and it would have won. Single and double would have returned 10pts total and made it a very good day. Very very annoying and frustrating! In fact it would have returned more as it went off 9/4 ?

Edited by Barnes1882
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10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS TODAY

B/FWD SEP -10.73

These are not tips they are just a trial of the media online giant's selections

2.10 Ayr Capital Theory 2/1 DTR (13/8 LN)                                                       Alt (5) 7/4 steady

3.50 Ayr Casillie 3/1 (2/1 LN)                                                                            Alt (2) 11/4 (2/1 LN)

1.15 Cork Pirate Jenny 6/5 DTR (11/8 LN)                                                        Alt (8) 9/2 ( 7/2 LN)

1.50 Cork Clara's Approach 11/4 DTR (7/4 LN)                                                 Alt (9) 9/2 steady

4.35 Cork River Derwent 7/2 (10/3)                                                                 Alt (10) 5/1 steady

3.28 Worc Blue Sans 9/4 (2/1 LN)                                                                    Alt (1) 4/1 (11/2 LN)

2.00 Sed Ramure 5/4 DTR (11/8 LN)                                                                Alt (6) 10/3 (11/4 LN)

2.35 Sed Mr Caplan 10/11 DTR steady                                                            Alt (3) 4/1 (7/2 LN)

3.10 Sed Brother Pat 5/2 DTR (6/4 Early morn)                                               Alt (2) 4/1 (9/2 Early morn)

9 Selections out of 36 races = 25%

 

RESULTS UPDATE

The Big 3 only got one winner from 8 selections today and therefore suffered a 5.8 point loss.  This gives them a carry fwd of -16.53 points

My alternative bets produced two winners and a small loss of -1.25 points.  The carry forward on this is -86.95 points

There are 39 races tomorrow for the Big 3 to redeem themselves so let's see what happens.

 

 

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16 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

Beaten on the nod by a nose! An extra couple of yards and it would have won. Single and double would have returned 10pts total and made it a very good day. Very very annoying and frustrating! In fact it would have returned more as it went off 9/4 ?

It happens all the time. We never say how lucky we are when we win in similar circumstances !

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46 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

What is the ROI / AE of the big 3 selections ?

I'm pretty sure that you will say that a month's worth of figures is not enough results to come to any definitive conclusions about the performance of the big 3 selections.  My calculations are based on one point per selection where all three agree on the same horse.  The return on investment is therefore negative.  Don't forget on 30th August there were 13 losers out of 15 selections, 11 of them were double top rated.  This was what encouraged me to have a closer look and run the selections for a month to see how they fared.

I am not sure about the AE.  This seems to be something that can be applied to a multiple of different factors, sometimes they are applied to trainers/ jockey and of course horses.  I would think that if the selections consistently lose money then the end result would always be less than one so that wouldn't be a recommendation either.

 

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17 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

RESULTS UPDATE

The Big 3 only got one winner from 8 selections today and therefore suffered a 5.8 point loss.  This gives them a carry fwd of -16.53 points

My alternative bets produced two winners and a small loss of -1.25 points.  The carry forward on this is -86.95 points

There are 39 races tomorrow for the Big 3 to redeem themselves so let's see what happens.

 

 

It seems we have much better tipsters on this forum.

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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I would think that if the selections consistently lose money then the end result would always be less than one

It is quite possible that the AE can be positive but levels stakes show a loss, especially if a lot of the shorter odds win and the longer odds lose.

Most of my systems start off showing a loss but by applying certain criteria these can be transformed in to a profit. There may be mileage in following the big 3 but not by backing everty selection.

I used to have a very successful system following the Racing Post selection box when a horse was tipped by most of the tipsters but it did have 5 additional criteria.

 

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6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I'm pretty sure that you will say that a month's worth of figures is not enough results to come to any definitive conclusions about the performance of the big 3 selections.  My calculations are based on one point per selection where all three agree on the same horse.  The return on investment is therefore negative.  Don't forget on 30th August there were 13 losers out of 15 selections, 11 of them were double top rated.  This was what encouraged me to have a closer look and run the selections for a month to see how they fared.

I am not sure about the AE.  This seems to be something that can be applied to a multiple of different factors, sometimes they are applied to trainers/ jockey and of course horses.  I would think that if the selections consistently lose money then the end result would always be less than one so that wouldn't be a recommendation either.

 

Excuse me if I missed it but who are the           ' big three ' ? 

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