The Equaliser

In 2020 when i first came on this site i posted as below, yes i am bragging but my point is this.
if you dont have a notebook then you are at a severe disadvantage or lets reverse that If you do use a notebook then you have a great advantage.
i have made about 10k out of alpinista over 2 years i even recommended it in a 180/1 forecast 2 races ago when i actually got an incredible 10/1 for alpinista  bog on that race.
i backed it for this arc at 16/1 and 20/1. Btw the horse to take out of this arc is vadeni 3yo ran an incredible race.
 

Aplinista won ...Great performance on ground and vadeni stayed after all for 2nd ......

A few  very small fun e/w bets for me at Longchamp.
1.50  GAN TEARAINN 40/1  bog  4P
2.25 TEEMA 12/1 bog 5p
3.05 TORQUATOR  TASSO 8/1 bog 5p
5.30 AMEDRAS 9/1 bog 5p

(A) 2.00 Kel Pavlik 10/3 @mickyftm32
(B) 1.25 Kel Onward Route @The Brigadier
(C) 2.35 Kel Haute Esteme11/10 @waggy@sporting sam
(D) 5.13 Uttx Gakice Macalo9/4 @The Brigadier
(E) 4.38 Uttx Diablo De Rouhet 6/1 @The Brigadier
AE, BC BD CD 4 x 1.50 dbles + BCD 1 x 1 pt win treble@ poss return 111.41
Singles and savers
1.25 Kel The Navigator 1.50 win at 4.40
2.35 Kel The Vollen 1.00 win at 4.4
The Arc 3.05 Longchamp Onesto 0.30 ew at 11/1 and Mishriff 0.15 ew at 28/1
Total stakes 10.40
 
I can't enthuse about other singles as the prices are a bot short.  I will come back later if I feel I need a rescue bet
Good luck to all
Awful start.  Will have 2 pts win on Galice Macalo at 4.1 in the 5.13 Uttx poss return 8.08
Total now 12.40 stakes
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4.38 Uttx Diablo De Rouhet 1.10 win at 7.4 poss return of 8.00
13.50 staked in total
5.13 Uttx Galice Macalo another 3 pts win = 5 at 3.86 = 14.01 profit if it wins
Total stakes = 16.50 today
RESULTS UPDATE
Awful day today with just one winner and that was saver bet.  Things can only get better
My loss was -12.17 which makes my MTD -7.32 and YTD -181.30
Several meetings tomorrow but mainly class 4 events on offer.  Let's hope for a change of fortune
 
 
 

Not one of my races but it looks as though the value has gone now.  Very best of luck

(A) 2.00 Kel Pavlik 10/3 @mickyftm32
(B) 1.25 Kel Onward Route @The Brigadier
(C) 2.35 Kel Haute Esteme11/10 @waggy@sporting sam
(D) 5.13 Uttx Gakice Macalo9/4 @The Brigadier
(E) 4.38 Uttx Diablo De Rouhet 6/1 @The Brigadier
AE, BC BD CD 4 x 1.50 dbles + BCD 1 x 1 pt win treble@ poss return 111.41
Singles and savers
1.25 Kel The Navigator 1.50 win at 4.40
2.35 Kel The Vollen 1.00 win at 4.4
The Arc 3.05 Longchamp Onesto 0.30 ew at 11/1 and Mishriff 0.15 ew at 28/1
Total stakes 10.40
 
I can't enthuse about other singles as the prices are a bot short.  I will come back later if I feel I need a rescue bet
Good luck to all
Awful start.  Will have 2 pts win on Galice Macalo at 4.1 in the 5.13 Uttx poss return 8.08
Total now 12.40 stakes
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.38 Uttx Diablo De Rouhet 1.10 win at 7.4 poss return of 8.00
13.50 staked in total
5.13 Uttx Galice Macalo another 3 pts win = 5 at 3.86 = 14.01 profit if it wins
Total stakes = 16.50 today
RESULTS UPDATE
Awful day today with just one winner and that was saver bet.  Things can only get better
My loss was -12.17 which makes my MTD -7.32 and YTD -181.30
Several meetings tomorrow but mainly class 4 events on offer.  Let's hope for a change of fortune
 
 
 

Its the one race of the year that calls for and falls into the lap of Alf Tupper...the tough of the track.
That's why we never saw Frankel
That's why Baaeed is going to Ascot. 
The posh horses who never had to do an honest's days hard graft in their careers. First time beaten they are finished.
By Gum....you are going to have to work your hooves off in the Arc de Triumph.
Baaeed has never had to sweat in his career. Not a great starter...normally 6th. In the Arc that's 18th. Lets see how good you are NOW posh horse!
Haggis and Cecil knew damn well. Frankel and Baaeed are not horses that "like it up em".
Youmzain....the ultimate Alf Tupper..."tough of the track" was three times second in the Arc and only the weight beat him twice. Plenty more great fighters in the History of the Arc...but no posh kids.
Unbeaten in a lucky career of beating up "bums"
So is the O'Brien's Luxembourg a "posh kid"? I don't know.
We will see. I like him. Injury...come back well. Got the makings.
But 20 horses?....is he that good he can get a front 6 position early as his style needs...?
Doubt it.
1st Vadeni   124  
2nd Torquator Tasso 121 (singing 'You were made for ME) all the way
3rd Luxembourg...
4th some Japanese horse at 100-1 who has run on fast ground all his career only to discover he's a flying machine in Paris Bog.
 
 

Westover 3.05

As many have said, this is tough to call, but Alpinista should be able to handle the very soft ground. 2pt Win.

colonel harry 1.43 Stepney causeway 2.18

bobby Sox 1.08

The exact 2 I went with and same bet co, lol

No luck on the flat so let's have a go over the jumps.

Uttoxeter

3.28 Henri Le Bon 5/2

5.13 Katpoli 5/2

Singles & double

Good luck all CNBB.

Lost 
-£20 oct
-£20 1st oct

Double football & Sunday dinner so I'll record the racing & watch this evening .
150- HABANA 6/1 sky bet ( £ back if 2nd , 3rd or 4th ) one of the least exposed in the field , more rain the better after easy Group 3 win at Baden Baden , extra 1f in trip should see more progression . ?
305- ALPINISTA 5/1 ( free bet from bet365 ) fillies & mare have good record in this race , good draw in 6 , going a worry .
1st , cheers bet365 ?, she did it easy as well .
Other picks but no bets just ITV 7 .
115- TIGRAIS ?
225- HATTAL ?
350- MY ASTRA 4th 
425- COEUR DE PIERRE 3rd 
500- FANG ?

A case to be made.
Another angle, below is the race Alpinista won won at Saint-Cloud.
Most that seriously follow racing know Fabre is a genious, go back a couple of years, waldgeist beat enable, fabre brought waldgeist to the UK and twice got beat by enable, in an interview on arc day Fabre was asked about the race and whether Enable could get the hatrick  to which he replied with a knowing look that he would hate to spoil the party.
Now look at the race below, Baratti trained by Fabre was 33/1 in the morning and Alpinista beat it by 1,1/4L, Mare Australis was 5/1 beaten 10L (forget the going description on this race no horse can beat standard by over 4 seconds on good to soft ground, the ground must have been GF-G. Fabre leaves Baratti (his best 12F 3yo on my speed figures) out and puts in Mare Australis so i reckon fabre thinks he can beat alpinista. Mare australis if it wins will be the 3rd German bred horse to win the arc, 2020,2021 2022? Fancy the 50/1 with WH?
 

The other German horse for me Mendocino 22/1 e/w ?

Even though the thread title is Arc De Triomphe ( Sunday ) I'll post Saturday's here as well which I hope is ok .
133- SEA THE SKY ( 16/1 bet365 3 places) showed massive improvement stepping up & winning over CD last time out & the more rain the better . 4th 
325- PRINCESS ZOE ( 18/1 bet365 3 places ) back off the same mark as when winning this last year on very soft same as Saturday's . 4th 
435- THE REVENANT ( 11/4 bet365 ) I just like this horse , will absolutely relish the going but is giving the Aga Khan's horse 3Lb , will be flying late . 2nd 
rather they be last than one place from a pay out .
Marquand , Moore & trainer O'Brien reporting the ground nowhere near as bad as reported , more sticky than proper soft but plenty of rain forecast tomorrow morning .

Watch the race see what happens im predicting based on data that the horse will fade unless as i pointed out he has tried them at home, the data actually shows 2nd time blinkers work far better,  it ran quite well last year in the arc as a 3yo and is german bred so i reallly wanted to back it at 100/1 but have basically crossed it off my shortlist, might i suggest many trainers dont know the actual stats, what i am saying is that a horse first time blinkered that has to run around a bend (they panic) will only win once out of 100. Oddly enough it doesnt apply in jumps racing. Alenquers best chance is if it gets boxed in all the way round to stop it using all its energy up too soon.

I personally think the draw angle is a bit of a red herring in the arc, 4 winners from 20 renewals thats actually 20% . the ground is most significant factor for me if it is Heavy
apparently it is soft at the moment with lots of rain forecast, Alpinista is a horse i have highly rated since its first run and i have made plenty of money out of it.
Going to give my tips based on soft/heavy going which excludes all the 3year olds, this race is gruelling and the soft/heavy ground means they will be floundering in the last furlong they are just not strong enough at 3yo.
The fav on all known form should be Alpinista. Torquator tasso 4yo has been there and done it, is this year stronger than last? No chance. Just look at the result from last year 2nd tarnawa 5yo 3rd hurricane lane 4th adayar 5th sealiway 6th snowfall, broome 11th
I wanted to recomend Alenquer ew at 100/1 but Haggis has chosen to experiment by fitting first time blinkers, anyone doing an in depth study on fto blinkers will know that they actually scare/panic a horse into running faster which means they will burn out sooner than they would without them, this is exagerated if they have to run around a bend. so unless Haggis has seriously tried the blinkers at home it is around a 100/1 chance it will win despite any other considerations. ( going to cover this with just a £2 ew just in case foolish bet) The Japanese runners seem to hate heavy ground as they have little or no experience of it so its safe enough to rule those out.
So i am left with 6 runners
Alpinista              11/2                       dr6                                                                                           likely winner
Torquator Tasso   15/2                      dr18          Ger                                                                          likely 2nd/3rd
Mendocino           33/1                      dr1           Ger                                                                          likely 2nd/3rd
Mare Australis      20/1                     dr19          Ger                                                   Fabre had many options  also Murzabeyev booking seems significant.
Sealiway                33/1                     dr15           beaten 4,1/2/ last year as a 3yo
Bubble Gift            66/1                     dr 13          beaten 5,1/2L last year (finishing well) as a 3yo
Conclusion.
Already backed Alpinista at 20/1 & 16/1
going to cross first 4 in forecasts and Tricasts
best ew is probably mendocino (beat torquasor lto and it didnt look a fluke to me)

Hopefully, I have done these right this time @Bang on
(A) 1.31 Nmj I'll Be There 13/2
(B) 2.25 Asc Hamish 11/8
(C) 2.47 Red I'm A Gambler 5/2
(D) 4.27 Nm Mellow Yellow 5/4
(E) 3.00 Asc Rohaan 10/3
AE, BC, BD, CD 4 x 1.50 win doubles and BCD 1 x 1 win Treble = poss return of 98.13
Singles and savers
1.51 Asc Came From The Dark 0.30 ew at 10/1
2.25 Asc Candleford 0.15 ew at 22/1
3.00 Asc Flaming RIb 0.60 ew at 8/1
3.36 Asc Simbolised 0.60 ew at 13/2 and Escobar 0.30 ew at 18/1
2.06 Nm Safari Dream 0.30 ew at 10/1
4.22 Nm Winter Wyldes 060 ew at 8/1
2.47 Red Dubai Poet 2.10 win at 3.45
3.57 Red Spirit Catcher 0.60 ew at 13/2
No time to list PL contributors but will do so if any win
Total stakes 16.00
Good luck you all
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Pity that Mellow Yellow didn't fire, it would have got me off to a great start for the month.  Instead I had to settle for a won double of 11.58.  Funnily enough my bet in the 3.36 at Ascot helped me make a profit.  It wasn't rocket science.  David O'Meara had 4 runners in the race and Andrea Atzini was on Escobar.  I felt that I had to have a bit on that despite all the work that other members had done to put up various selections.  My net profit was 4.85 on the day, so at least a positive start for the new month. My YTD is -169.13
I may be tempted to have a small bet in the Arc tomorrow but will focus on the jumps at Uttoxeter and Kelso if I get the time.  I don't like betting outside the UK.  Good luck to all brave punters who do though
 
 
 

Usually a filly or mare ,last year's winner being drawn on the car park is a plus for alpinista who has won on soft before love her to win for Luke Morris 

Only 4 winners from the last 20 renewals have came from a double figure draw two from stall 14 & two from 15 , I'd fancy a home bred winner but bit of a dart job .

What a difficult race to rate .....I've taken the bottom 8 draws of which 11 of the past 15 placed horses qualified and rated then thus .....
Luxembourg    9.0  4/1 
Vadeni          8.9  10/1 
Alpinista     8.9   11/2 
Westover    8.3 
Do deuce    8.2 
Deep bond   8.0 
Mendocini    8.0 
Al hakeen   7.9 
Luxembourg beat vadeni last time although there's a,possibility that vadeni could do better over further but pedigree doesn't suggest that but ew possibility......Luxembourg ran on strong that day and last ran leop which is a plus  and home reports are he's training well so worthy fav .....
Alpinista is unknown quantity ....ground might be against him as currently heavy ish.....but doesn't know how to lose so if there 2f out then will be tough to pass ....overall ....there are soft ground d specialists like last year's winner ....but he's drawn in car park  ....so I'll try 10pt wins Luxembourg and alpinista at 4/1 and 11/2 and 1pt rev forecast.....vadeni could be a danger if stays this time 
 

Ralph Becketts runner in France, let's see if his jockey gets elbowed off this runner. 
Longchamp. 
1.50. Dandy Alys.        28/1.    ew.. trouble free run.. unpl. 
Good luck all.