The Equaliser

Day 56
-£7 yesterday 
+£94
all @Carole-dawney French 🇫🇷 
 

Battle It Out 14:25 Naas -  15/2 bet 365 - 3 places
Good Time Jonny 15:55 Naas -  12/1 bet 365 - 5 places
2 x singles - each way double

Looking forward to the flat and the effects of the draw and going through all my results for 40 odd years. I have heard and read so much tosh over the years about "the Draw" I have concluded it puts you off more winners than losers when the "noise" suggest the draw is against "it".
I have 2 examples in 2 days I backed Al Muzn at 14/1 at Meydan against the advice of the "noise" it won, the same thing today at Ryadh I backed Anaf at 12/1 also against the advice of the draw. I had a tenner on both horses and if i had listened to "the experts" i would have missed out on £280 quid. That's the sort of stuff that affects your bottom line in betting so the point i am making is- If you know your horses go with your judgment and let no one and nothing put you off betting on it.

Well done Equaliser and many thanks to MC .

Many thanks for running this aspect of the Naps comp. It is my favourite.  This was a good battle for first prize.  I thought that Military Order was a shrewd selection on Roger's part as Lord North was seemingly having a prep race for his next international race

A very close finish, @The Equaliser winning by a nose. Congratulations and well done the runner up @roger2256

horn  cape 4.00

B/Fwd L15 YTD -33.86 & RC YTD -34.64 (incl L15's)   Each Way 4 Fold AccumulatorRef: 320028392 4 Selections
4. Tweed Skirt - 9/1Winner - 15:37 KemptonEach Way: 1/5 Odds 4 Places   2. Barenboim - 11/2Winner - 16:30 SouthwellEach Way: 1/5 Odds 4 Places   9. Plastic Paddy - 11/2Winner - 18:35 SouthwellEach Way: 1/5 Odds 4 Places   1. Reason To Pass - 9/1Winner - 19:50 ChelmsfordEach Way: 1/5 Odds 3 Places   Stake£1.00 Win Stake£0.50 Place Stake£0.50 Potential Returns£2,129.79 Lucky15Ref: 320028398 4 Selections
4. Tweed Skirt - 9/1Winner - 15:37 Kempton   2. Barenboim - 11/2Winner - 16:30 Southwell   9. Plastic Paddy - 11/2Winner - 18:35 Southwell   1. Reason To Pass - 9/1Winner - 19:50 Chelmsford   Stake£1.50 Potential Returns£680.52 Retain Selections Total Stake£2.50 Total Potential Returns£2,810.31

15.00 Kem Panjari ew 13/2
15.20 Sou Military Order 2/1
15.37 Kem Flegmatik ew 15/2 
Good luck Equaliser, whatever happens its been a great comp , thanks go to MC for all his good work. 

3.37 Km Tweed Skirt ew 11/1 with Bet365
4.53 Chp Midnight Venture ew 3/1 with Williamhill
7.20 Chlm Love De Vega ew at 11/4 with Williamhill
 
Res 1. 6.50 Chelm Little Rose win at 5/4 with Williamhill
Res 2. 6.35 Sou Plastic Paddy ew at 11/2 with Bet365
Res 3. 2.08 Nc Fenland Tiger ew 5/1 with Bet365
Good luck to Roger with his selections

AW selection
Chelmsford 6.20
KING CABO

Running total -£2
Bet 2
 

Tommie Beau 14/1 Coral - 14:08 Newcastle - 4 places
Sam Brown 16/1 bet 365 - 15:37 Kempton - 4 places
2 x singles - each way double

Six stats to help you beat the bookies on Saturday - 
Newcastle
Danny McMenamin has been riding at the top of his game in the past two weeks, enjoying five winners from 18 rides (28 per cent).
He has two rides at Newcastle, where he has had five winners from 26 rides this season. His best chance of the day is the Nicky Richards-trained Marown in the 2m4f handicap chase (3.27). 
The ten-year-old has not won since March 2021 but he has posted some decent efforts at Ayr in recent starts. McMenamin also rides Prince Des Fichaux in the feature, the 4m1½f Eider Chase (2.08)
 
Kempton
Christian Williams is operating at a massive 19 per cent strike-rate in 3m+ handicap chases since 2017, having won 47 times with 252 runners, at a profit of +78.98 to a £1 level stake.
In today's £150,000 Coral Trophy (3.37) he sends out Cap Du Nord who needs to find his form again having not won for nine starts. 
He has plummeted down the handicap as a result and runs here out of the handicap off 126, 8lb higher than his current mark, but it is worth remembering he went off 7-2 favourite for this race last season off a mark of 132 so he is not without a chance.
Chepstow
Stuart Edmunds is the most in-form trainer in Britain right now, operating at a strike-rate of 80 per cent, having sent out four winners from his last five runners.
He has two runners on the seven-race card, including the consistent Bubble Dai, who has finished third or better in seven of his 11 career starts. The seven-year-old bids for a second win in the 2m handicap hurdle (1.58).
Edmunds also sends out Gentleman At Arms, who attempts to cause an upset in the 2m7½f handicap hurdle (3.08). The field also includes Walking On Air and Grade 1 winner Monmiral.
 
Fairyhouse
Grand National-winning trainer Emmet Mullins is no stranger to success at this venue. He has sent out four winners from seven runners here this campaign and is operating at a 57 per cent strike-rate.
Mullins' sole runner of the day comes in the 2m handicap hurdle (2.03), with Toll Stone bidding to add to his course-and-distance success last time out.
The four-year-old has showed massive progress since joining the yard by improving his Racing Post Rating on each of his first three starts. Donagh Meyler takes the ride and the pair have a big chance.
Southwell
John and Thady Gosden are operating at a 21 per cent strike-rate at the Nottinghamshire track in the past five seasons, with seven winners from 33 runners in that period.
Group 1 winner Lord North makes his long-awaited return in the Group 3 BetUK Winter Derby (3.20), a race he won last year, and he provides the yard with their best chance of a winner. Robert Havlin takes the ride and he has won twice in three starts (67 per cent) when teaming up with the joint-trainers this year.
Forest Of Dean, winner of this race in 2021, also represents the Gosdens in this contest.
 
Chelmsford
Trainer Amy Murphy has enjoyed most of her success this year at the Essex track, sending out three winners from seven runners and operating at a 43 per cent strike-rate.
Her sole runner of the day is Tremblant in the 7f handicap (7.20). The four-year-old is making his fourth start for the yard and made significant improvement when fifth at Newcastle last time out.
The son of Shamardal will once again be equipped with a tongue-tie, and the addition of cheekpieces should help him settle more quickly and get into a rhythm.

Coral trophy 
Flegmatik. 8.9 7/1 4 places 
Tweed skirt 8.7 15/2 5 places 
These two are a little clear of rest so I'll try 5 PT Ew both 😁

Lost
-£263 feb
-£622 10/07/23

2.15 auteuil apaulstar 40/1 £10 e/w bet365

minus 57.37
Sou 3.20 - Lord North - £20 win - 7/5 PP

Saudi Cup,  Riyadh 540
Senor Buscador 16/1
£10 ew  4pl.      bet365.

Day 55
+£101
@Carole-dawney bottom one

Running total -£97
Bet 102
 

Givemefive 1:50 Kempton (4/1 Bet365 boost). I'll probably regret taking on The Brigadier's 2pt selection 😁 but this one was hugely impressive at Warwick and I was expecting it to be long odds on next time out. The form hasn't really worked out with the 2nd and 3rd running only ok next time but for me he was even more visually impressive than the fav.
Gets a handy 5lb from the fav here, clearly loves the soft, was slick over the hurdles and just looked pretty relentless. 
 
1pt win Bet365 (4/1 on boost).
 
No complaints, just not as good as the winner.
 
P/L: +0.1pt