The Equaliser

Annoying isn't it? All that number crunching just to find 2 non runners. 

Running total -£14
Bet 8&9
 

COUNTY HURDLE
 High rated horses have a poor record. Those with a BHB rating of 140 or above have 2 wins from 140 runs with a loss of 120 points. The remainder have 7 wins from 105 runs with a profit of 123 points.
 A decent rest is useful. Horses that have not had a run in the last 6 weeks have produced 5 wins from 51 runs with a profit of 59 points.
 This leaves just 2, GIN COCO (50/1) and AUCUNURISQUE (50/1), 6 places.

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
I have looked at the statistics over the last 10 years and these are my top 5 that should be considered.
It is not generally a race for big outsiders. The horse should be in the first 7 in the betting forecast. There have been 56 outside this range and they have all lost.
5 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown, 2 at Tramore, 2 at Newbury and 1 at Thurles. Those that ran at the other 11 tracks had 0 winners from 68 runners, including 21 that previously ran at Cheltenham and 16 at Kempton.
This leaves 3, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (11/10), FASTORSLOW (6/1) and GERRI COLOMBE (8/1).
Horses aged 7 or 8 perform best. These horses have won 9 times from 65 attempts with a level stakes profit of 18 points. The rest have just 1 win from 65 attempts with a loss of 62 points.
8 winners (from 38 runners) were sent off last time at odds of 2/1 or less. This removes FASTORSLOW.
There is an ideal rest period of 33 to 73 days with this producing 9 winners from 69 runners.
This leaves GALOPIN DES CHAMPS at 11/10. Not an imaginative selection but he ticks all the boxes.

Hi all, well Day 2 and Day 3 have been profitable for us.....soooo a few Day 4 selections so far we have gone for 🤞
 
Gordon Elliott To Train 2 Winners @ 5/1  WON  (return 120 pts )  👍  
Paul Townend To Finish In The Top 4 On All 5 Rides @ 11/1  😨...............Paul Townend To Ride 2 Winners @  7/4     WON  (return 110 pts )  👍
Storm Heart & Nurburgring to Finish In The Top 4 In The 13:30 @ 11/4  😨
Leau Du Sud & King Of Kingsfield to Finish In The Top 6 In The 14:10 @ 2/1 😨
 Readin Tommy Wrong & Dancing City to Finish In The Top 5 In The 14:50 @  13/8 😨
 
13.30    Storm Heart  7/2                       Bunting  7/1 EW
14.10   Leau du Sud  10/3                  Absurde  12/1  EW  WON  ( return 205 pts )  😘 to @TheBrigadier                 Zenta  9/1  EW    5 places   
14.50   Readin Tommy Wrong  2/1                Captain Teague   8/1  EW                          Search for Glory   22/1 EW                   4 places     
             
15.30     Galopin Des Champs    5/4 ( return 225 pts )   & 10/11  ( return 190 pts)     ( main bet )  WON                            Lhomme Presse    14/1  EW  
15.30    best placed Irish horse......Galopin Des Champs @ 8/15  WON  (return 153 pts )   
   🐎 🏆 💷. woop woop that has made our Cheltenham.... sooo cheers 🥂 to W Mullins / P Townend today .....
    and then G Elliott rounds off our day with his 2nd winner in last race of festival for another 120 pts 👌
 Sooo day 1 we drew a blank 😨 Then got better day 2 & 3 and then our best ever racing returns today to end Festival 🥂 💷 
 
 

Similar offer on BETMGM but £20 + £20 100% price boost

Martin pipe last race of festival 
Jay jay Reilly 8.3 30.0
Soningino. 8.3 18.0 
Quel de bourbon. 7.8 4.7 
Gotta try finish with bang ....10pt wins all 3 1pt forecasts 

1.30 KARGESE 11/2 SKY ( £ back if your horse loses ) only £5 but , daft not to take up the offer . 2nd , ran well but Magniers winner looked a good thing , cash back so no loss .

Nurburgring                                                     1 30 Chl/                   1/40th of a pt ew  12/1
Bravemansgame                                             3 30 Chl/                   1/40th of a pt ew   20/1
Teddy Blue                                      N/R                 
J J Riley                                                                5 30 Chl/                  1/40th of a pt ew  40/1
Hansard                                           N/R               
Afadil                                                                  2 10 Chl/                  1/40th of a pt ew   70/1         - 5th
Nassalam                                                           3 30 chl/                   1/40th of a pt ew  50/1

Gold cup 
Galipin des champs 9.0 11/10 
Bravemansgame. 8.9 14/1 
These two are well clear of rest ...bravesman needs to recapture form but this is the gold cup ...so who knows .....20 PT galipin ...5pt braveman 
 

County hurdle 
Leau du sud  8.9 9/2 
Faivoir.   8.7 16/1 
Pied piper 8.5 12/1 
5pt wins all 3 and forecasts 

Triumph hurdle 
Sir Gino. 9.2 5/2 
Mighty bandit. 8.7 50/1 
Sir Gino is miles ahead ....if it wasn't for his stable form I think he'd be evs ...as a result you can get 5/2 or better ......still got to take a chance at that value ......mighty bandit is an interesting horse ....ran a stinker last time but something looked amiss (virus)...was bought for 420000 euros so at 50/1 I'll have an interesting Ew bet on that too 

Cheltenham 1.30 The JCB Triumph Hurdle may not be the numerical race of old but is still a good test of a four year old and this 2m 1F Grade 1 contest has attracted a field of fourteen. Nicky Henderson has had a wretched week, with several of his stars scratched as well as those that have run running shockers. His Sir Gino is the latest scratching from Seven Barrows which means this is a wide open contest. The Willie Mullins stable is running seven with five of them all running close to each other in the Spring juvenile hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival and it must be significant that stable jockey is on Storm Heart. It may be worth chancing Gary Moore’s Salver for whom the ground can not be soft enough. He’s unbeaten in four races and although he’ll need to step up again is worth a small each way interest with conditions to suit in what appears to be a wide open renewal.   SALVER 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 Coral 1/5th 1234   Cheltenham 2.10 The traditional cavalry charge that is the BetMGM County Handicap Hurdle is run over 2M 1F and has attracted a near maximum field of twenty three. One piece of form that is pivotal to the outcome of this race is the Grade 1 Leopardstown novice hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. That race was won by Ballyburn who beat Slade Steel by 7L which is obviously top grade form now with the pair winning well this week in the Supreme and Gallagher Novice Hurdles. 7L further back in third was Gordon Elliott’s Gigginstown owned King Of Kingsfield with Willie Mullins’s Absurde just 3 1/4L behind in fourth. The latter is now 4lb better off and has claims of turning the tables but seems a better horse on better ground. Plenty of others can be given chances including the Dan Skelton pair Faivoir, who won this last year and arrives following an unlucky silver medal at Sandown last weekend and Betfair Hurdle runner up L’Eau Du Sud. Last year’s runner up Pied Piper heads the weights today but is only 2lb higher than that run when, but for hitting the last (not Davy Russell’s finest ride) would have won. He’s part of the staking plan but the main bet has to be King Of Kingsfield who’s form has been so well advertised this week.   KING OF KINGSFIELD 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456 PIED PIPER 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 123456   Cheltenham 2.50 Fifteen staying novice hurdlers face the judge for the 3M Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle. Willie Mullins saddles a third of the field in with his best arrow probably Reading Tommy Wrong who is the pick of stable jockey Paul Townend (even if it is for Messrs Souede & Munir) although he does have stamina to prove here stepping up half a mile. Harry Fry has always rated his Gidleigh Park highly and this unbeaten six year old, ridden today by J J Burke could be the value pick for the home team. Unbeaten in a bumper and three novice hurdles, including a Grade 2 here in January where he was made to work hard to beat Nicky Henderson’s Lucky Place (ran well in Coral Cup earlier this week) by half a length showing a great battling attitude. He too is now stepping up to three miles for the first time and can take an open looking Albert Bartlett.   GIDLEIGH PARK 1 point each way @ 7/1 Coral 1/5th 1234   Cheltenham 3.30 The blue riband of of chasing is here with the Gold Cup run over a trip of 3M 2F and 70 yards with a final field of a dozen of the best staying chasers around. We have a a warm favourite in the shape of the Willie Mullins trained Galopin Des Champs who’s back to defend his title having led over the last and putting 7L between himself and the re-opposing Bravemansgame who must have place credentials once more. He’s done little wrong this season, probably needing his seasonal re-appearance before easy victories at Leopardstown over Christmas and at the Dublin Racing Festival. He looks the best horse in the race and can give Willie Mullins and Paul Townend yet another winner at the meeting. Martin Brassil’s Fastorslow chased home the pick last time and having had a wind operation since may be the one again to follow him home with the afore mentioned Bravemansgame a possible for the frame.   GALOPINS DES CHAMPS 2 points win @ 11/10 bet365   Cheltenham 4.10 A surprisingly small field for the St James’s Place Hunters’ Chase with last year’s one two Premier Magic and It’s On The Line back to renew rivalry. The former came out 1 3/4L to the good last year but It’s On The Line who was only a six year old then and can turn the tables on his rival today. Brought by J P McManus since winning at Naas in a remarkable race where the old timer Billaway came from the clouds to nearly run down the favourite on the run in, going down by just a head. Emmet Mullins will have the seven year old at his peak and can grab his second winner of the week following Tuesday’s success with Corbetts Cross for the same jockey, the excellent Derek O’Connor. Fellow Irish seven year old Ferns Lock may be his biggest danger having finished just half a length behind him in a Hunter chase at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Best of the outsiders may be Fiona Needham’s grey mare Sine Nomine who can out run her odds.   ITS ON THE LINE 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365   Cheltenham 4.50 Willie Mullins is having a predictable phenomenal week and can take the 2M 4 1/2F Mares Chase with his seven year old Dinoblue. She’s won four of her last five starts following a decent runner up spot in last year’s Grand Annual Handicap Chase won by Maskada with her defeat coming when a highly creditable 8 1/2L second to El Fabiolo in the Grade 1 Dublin Chase at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival in February. The one negative is the fact that the only time she tackled today’s trip she finished fourth of 15 back in April 2022. She’s been kept to the minimum trip since but the way the Mullins battalion have gone this week its quite possible she’ll just win. Last years runner up Allegorie De Vassy, also in the care of Mullins, can chase her home and finish in silver position once again.   DINOBLUE 1 point win @ 11/10 BetVictor   Cheltenham 5.30 The final race, of twenty seven, at this year’s meeting is the 2M 4 1/2F Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle for which we have a near maximum field of twenty three. Seven of the last ten winners have been novices and the front two in the market are in that bracket, Willie Mullins’s Quai De Bourbon and Henry De Bromhead’s Waterford Whispers. They take a big chunk of the betting market here and are worth taking on. Willie Mullins may end the meeting with how he started mind with his Munir & Souede owned Oscar Des Mottes. He made his British/Mullins debut when a well backed 7/2 favourite in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury when finishing eighth. He was there with a chance at the last however until weakening with maybe the 238 day absence counting against him. He was also re-shod before the race which is maybe another excuse. Kieran Callaghan takes the ride with his season tally being eleven winners from 88 rides. A tough handicap to conclude what has been a memorable four days of top class National Hunt racing.   OCASTLE DES MOTTES 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 12345  

Each Way Lucky15   Stake£ 3.00 Win Stake£ 1.50 Place Stake£ 1.50 Returns£ 11.96  

"ace" claims the prize    { iv'e had a "tenner" on 'Git Maker' in the last 🙂 }

Shake wins and forecast .....5pt forecasts returns 176.00 ....returns +231.00 ....prob about +380.00 after losses with one race to come 

Couple of absentees today so i wont brag. 🤣

Here's the thing if you really fancy a couple of horses yes back them as singles especially if they are decent prices which is what i do but i also pinch a bit of my stake money and find 2 more horses and add a lucky15.

£24.16 back for me

Running total -£110.50
Bet 107

Day 77 
+£136

Each Way Lucky15Ref: 334039304 4 Selections
20. Judicial Law - 40/1Winner - 14:10 CheltenhamEach Way: 1/5 Odds 6 Places   12. Sir Gerhard - 6/1Winner - 15:30 CheltenhamEach Way: 1/5 Odds 4 Places   5. Grey Dawning - 9/4Winner - 13:30 CheltenhamEach Way: 1/5 Odds 3 Places   7. Shakem Up'Arry - 10/1Winner - 16:10 CheltenhamEach Way: 1/5 Odds 5 Places   Stake£ 3.00 Win Stake£ 1.50 Place Stake£ 1.50 Potential Returns£ 1,744.76   Wanted to include City Chief but Betfred not showing the race

I think we've had this debate before
You could also argue that long shots shouldn't be allowed because the occasional winner could win you the monthly naps competition
A lot of people find the most winners comp very interesting, you obviously don't

Just a couple of points to make here.  If you think that there is no skill in selecting odds on shots try winning the "most winners" aspect of the Naps comp.  You will not find it El Fabiola or easy.
Also, you should make a note that you need to select a horse at odds of 11/2 or greater for it to be counted as a winner in the Naps comp should it be placed and not win.
I hope this helps you
 

one winning double ...... today + 77.50
month +367.94