The Equaliser

Sandown. 
Single 
8.02. D D Ottette       4/1
stk 5.00     25/1
Double. 
4.10. Goodw.  Tropic Island     3/1       unpl
2.35. Redc. Salamanda            11/4       unpl
stk 6.00   rtn 41.00.
Good luck all.

Have backed him from my Tracker, has dropped 15lbs in the weights, backed him LTO and jockey was slow to remove hood in stalls (racing post comment blindfold off late), kept changing inside, outside all the time, and cost him the race IMO. I'm in again as he will surely win soon.

Monitoring weather forecast for Tomorrow & looking good at moment for Ladies Day.......
'' Cloud will break in Aft, Lengthy sunny spells, remaining dry, easing winds'' 😎 🤞
 
Free £5 multi EW  WON  Tony Montana  4th  &   Breege   2nd......
O Murphy & W Buick both have winners @ 10/3   /    R Moore 2 wins @ 3/1...... ( both these bets cant win to late NR's )
Good 1.50      Struth  8/1 EW            &     Tony Montana    17/2 EW     4th    &         Alumnus  28/1 EW  NR                          4 places
Good 2.25      Jumbly   9/2   NR              &      White Moonlight   6/1            &           Fast Response 9/2         &      Breege     7/1 EW     2nd         4 places
Good 3.00      Big Evs   5/2     WON            &        Kylian  11/4............ Hackman 14/1    &      Shagraan  10/1  
Good 3.35      Paddington / Aldaary   R/FC    &          Inspiral / Aldaary   R/FC  ( in case this 1 race too much for Fav )   &  Facteur Cheval   12/1  
Good 4.10      Indispensable     7/1 EW       3rd           &            Dapperling    10/1 EW    4th     &     Ziggys Dream  12/1 EW                 4 places
Good 4.45        There's the Door  5/1   WON  6/1      &      Sirona   10/1 EW   NR          &      Chips & Rice  14/1 EW        4 places   ( 3 places with late NRs )
               
2 wins 🏆 🏆 .......an EW double and 4 EW places, so happy on a day of NRs / crap ground so came out ahead just 😎
 

I've done ASH TREE MEADOW 11/1 ( 5 places ) only 1Lb higher than when finishing 5th in race last year negated by claimer taking 7Lb off . 1st 👍
5.02 Perth - AL KALIA 10/3 Sky bet , up against the odds on favourite but S.Crawfords yard are in form . 👎
Flat : 
445 Goodwood - SIRONA 10/1 Bet365 ( 4 places ) I've done well last couple of seasons with German bred horses in the UK with cut in the ground from 8-12f though this a little high in the weights . non runner , surprisingly , ah well , still a winner , kind of 😆

It didn’t seem too bad yesterday but obviously the rain arrived overnight . Galway got off lightly I think and the going has gone from Yielding to Good/Yielding which favours my selection and the likes of Hewick. Hewick will have to run to 170+ to win this I’d have thought which is an almighty ask. 

https://www.racingpost.com/news/previews/going-change-at-goodwood-as-ground-softens-following-6.8mm-of-rain-overnight-live-updates-aKGt45f3bPwY

Leicester. 
Single 
6.32. Deep Blue        4/1
stk 5.00    rtn 25.00 
Good luck all. 

Lucky 15  (x30)    Internationalangel 20/1 PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 Win or Each Way / 14:25 Goodwood Each Way Odds 1/5 Places 1-2-3-4   EXTRA PLACE BEST ODDS GUARANTEED   Isla Kai 14/1 PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4 Win or Each Way / 17:20 Goodwood Each Way Odds 1/5 Places 1-2-3-4-5   EXTRA PLACE BEST ODDS GUARANTEED   Highwaygrey 6/1   Win or Each Way / 15:45 Redcar Each Way Odds 1/5 Places 1-2-3   BEST ODDS GUARANTEED   Gabbys Cross 16/1 PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4 Win or Each Way / 18:40 Galway Each Way Odds 1/5 Places 1-2-3-4-5   EXTRA PLACE BEST ODDS GUARANTEED   0.1pts e/w L15 bog coral = 3pts invested

ĶI've got a tenner free bet on Galway plate so might as well rate it and have a go !!
The goffer  9.0 11/1
Visionary   8.9 12/1
Lifetime ambition  8.8 16/1
Hewick     8.5 
Fury Road   8.5 
Kilcruit   8.3 
Hard race ....the goffer has trainer and is in right weight zone and is top 3 on villa Chris's above  so I think I have him as my free tenner .. as good as any 
I'll have a fiver on 2nd and 3rd rated for cover  bets  .....cmon the beauty's!!

Last time I think you wanted us to write nothing if our bets lost to save on admin.  So I'm saying nothing 👍

Galway Plate Chase 
Easy Game 9.32 18/1
Fury Road 8.97 12/1
The Goffer 8.91 14/1
Kilcruit 8.9 13/2
A Wave Of The Sea 8.76 40/1
Super competitive race 22 runners.  This race is usually won by unexposed novice types carrying less than 11 stone but the last two renewals of been won by classy types Hewick last year and Royal Rendezvous the year before carrying big weights . Hewick returns along with some other big names. Hewick scores low on going and his current mark hence why not in the picture for me but he’s a real class act.   I hope conditions don’t get too testing for Easy Game although he has won on soft ground before but wouldn’t want it too bad. Finished second in this race two years ago and 10th last year off a pound higher but was hampered twice which killed momentum near the end. 11,4 isn’t the end of the world because he’s has lots of class about him . 
 
I’ll be brave and go 5 points on the nose 

well likewise  i bet with a blackmarket bookmaker who gets on in the far east and mines not the first bet he's taken on it he tells  me

Chindit     { N/R }                                                    3 35 Gwd/              1/40th of a pt win   60/1
Magical Sunset                                        2 25 Gwd/              1/40th of a pt ew    28/1         -   WON
Rousay                                                      4 45 Gwd/              1/40th of a pt ew    40/1
Dapperling                                               4 10 Gwd/              1/40th of a pt ew    14/1
En Or                                                         6 10 Gal/                1/40 th of a pt ew   18/1
Young Lucy                                               5 40 Gal/                1/40th of a pt ew    50/1
Gabby's Cross                                          6 40 Gal/                1/40th of a pt ew    20/1
 
 
 
P/L  +165.70pt

Big jumps race in Ireland worth 270k euros, The Galway Plate. Will look forward to going through it on a bit. Any thoughts ?

520 good 
Rhoscolyn  8.8  81 80 36  5.6 betf
Darkness   8.6   67  68  58    10.5 betfair
Classic   8.4 62 44 44 
My idea of the winner is Rhoscolyn ....his class fig dropped lto but that was heavy ground so we'll say that was a blip ...other than that he looks,a class above these....danger looks darkness who has performed well in this class previously and conditions  look suitable ....let's trust ratings and go for it 
*edit ...I don't think he'd want ground heavy .....go sft maybe soft woukd be OK....
Rhoscolyn 13.04 win 
Darkness  6.96 win 
20pt outlay  56.00 profit any winner 🏆 
 
 

2pt e/w  5.20 GW- ISLA KAI 12/1 NOT BOG 5places = 4pts Invested

Day two of Glorious Goodwood and the ITV team are giving us the first four races from the picturesque Sussex course. The official ground is good to soft (soft in places) with a wet forecast, so once again it’s horses that like to get their hooves in that we are looking for. Here are my thoughts on how to beat the bookies today.   Goodwood 13:50 We kick off the day with the 1M 4F class 2 Coral Handicap for three year olds only, with a dozen having declared. Amleto, trained by William Haggas has been installed the favourite in his first handicap. He was last seen twelve weeks ago when running away with a Chester maiden on soft ground from a horse that won on Monday and is stepping up to a mile and a half today. A mark of 89 looks reasonable and he should be thereabouts. Sir Michael Stoute runs Fox Journey, owned by King Power who’s won handicaps at Newmarket and Newbury from four starts this season. A 5lb rise for his win at the latter track twelve days ago will not help and he has yet to prove he handles soft ground. John & Thady Gosden saddle a pair of runners in handicap debutant Tony Montana (yet to encounter easy ground) and Inquiring Minds, who bombed out last time and is another one who has yet to encounter cut in the ground. The Johnston stable have won three of the last nine runnings of this race and Charlie Johnstone saddles four in an attempt to better that record. The one of the quartet who we know handles soft ground well is the Joe Fanning ridden Struth. A soft ground winner at Chester in May he’s run consistently well since including when third in an Ascot handicap. He can form part of the staking plan. Dual purpose trainer Alan King saddles Westerton, who is another who can play a hand in the finish. Stepping up in trip here he has form on all types of ground and maybe most importantly has the assistance of Ryan Moore. In an open race I’ll play Struth each way and Amleto win only.   STRUTH 1 point each way 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 AMLETO 1 point win 7/2 bet365   Goodwood 14:25 A tough looking renewal of the Group 3 Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes with a bumper turnout of sixteen for three year old and upwards fillies and mares. The draw will be important here with seven of the last 8 winners drawn 6 or lower. Irish challenger Jumbly, trained by Joseph O’Brien is arguably the best horse in the field and this represents a drop in grade for him although stall 12 is not ideal and Ryan Moore will have to have a plan from out that wide which he might well have but at the price I don’t really want to pay to find out. Saedd Bin Suroor’s White Moonlight comes here in top form having won his last two starts at Musselburgh and Chelmsford in listed company and this represents a step up in grade. He’s not run on soft ground but was a winner as a juvenile on good to soft so maybe he will handle the likely underfoot conditions. A stall of seven looks favourable as well. John Quinn trains Breege who is drawn low in stall three and holds a definite chance on ground hopefully that she will handle. She was runner up in the Group 2 Prestige Stakes as a two year old over course and distance and also got the silver medal in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot when chasing home Coppice. She drops a furlong here and in a tough contest is a tentative each way selection. She’s one of nine three year old fillies in this race with Irish trainer Kieran Cotter’s Matilda Picotte, who finished an 8L third in the 1000 Guineas, an interesting contender but has the widest draw of all in 16 so is overlooked for that reason alone. The highest rated in the field is the Roger Varian trained Olivia Maralda who ran fifth in the Jersey Stakes last time when giving plenty to do by Kevin Stott. She can run well here but was pulled out on her stable debut due to soft ground and the only other time she encountered softish ground was in the 1000 Guineas when 3 1/2L behind Matilda Picotte. A minefield of a race with draw and ground so important but I’ll chance Breege under Jason Hart each way with additional places.   BREEGE 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Goodwood 15:00 Just the eight runners line up for the Jaeger-Lecoultre Molecomb Stakes, a Group 3 contest for two year olds run over the minimum trip of 5F. The only runner in the race who has shown any form on soft ground is Hugo Palmer’s Hackman who won a Chester maiden in May on soft ground but was 6L behind favourite Kylian last time. Kylian looks the one to beat having improved to win a brace of races at Newcastle by (4L) and a listed contest at Sandown (by 6L from Hackman). He looks a smart performer but was pulled out on his debut at Newmarket in May due to soft ground and at the price I’ll leave him be. Royal Ascot winner Big Evs stepped up on his debut run to win the listed Windsor Castle Stakes by a comfortable 3L in June and has to be considered although once again, as with all of these, both his runs came on good to firm ground. With him and Kylian taking a big chunk out of the market here with no evidence that they will handle ease in the ground it’s worth looking for an alternative. Both Purosangue and Barnwell Boy flopped last time so maybe the Richard Hannon trained Baheer is the value each way play (hoping all eight run obviously). Well backed on his debut at Newbury when finishing runner up to Zulu Chief, he stepped forward 18 days later when taking a novice stakes at the same track again over 6F by 2 1/2L from Aljezur. He drops to the minimum trip today and with the Hannon two year olds amongst the winners in the last week he looks the value especially with the words used by Hannon after his win at Newbury where he stated that “there have been times when he’s worked at home and I thought he could be the best two-year-old we’ve trained but he came here and showed nothing like it first time. He’s always been a hooligan but he’s got a frightening amount of talent and that didn’t surprise me at all”. High praise indeed.   BAHEER 1 point each way @ 11/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123   Goodwood 15:35 The feature race of the day (and meeting) is the 1M Qatar Sussex Stakes with £1,000,000 guaranteed. A small but select field of six go to post with the very warm favourite being the Aiden O’Brien trained Paddington. He’s been a revelation this season starting off winning a Naas handicap on heavy ground and progressing through the ranks to score in listed company at The Curragh followed by the Irish 2000 Guineas, St James Palace Stakes and Coral -Eclipse when stepped up in distance. He’s dropping back to a mile here which wont be an issue and as he acts on any ground will be very hard to beat. Roger Varian’s Charyn was 4L behind him at Ascot and it’ll be a major shock were he to turn the tables whilst Richard Hannon’s Chindit and French challenger Facteur Cheval have 10lb and 12lb respectively to find with Paddington. If there is to be one to turn the favourite over then its maybe John & Thady Gosden’s smart filly Inspiral who made a pleasing re-appearance when coming from some way back to finish second (beaten a neck) by Triple Time in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes. That was a fine effort and she can push Paddington all the way but with Ryan Moore in the saddle this can go to Paddington who will be at prohibitive odds and is one for the daily acca bet.   All odds quoted were available at time of writing.  

Get ready for a worked example of regression to the mean! I was briefly disappointed that the last one won as I thought I’d get to find out whether I get double the odds for one winner or not?

That's generous of you, I would have happily allowed it. 

5.05 Stormy Sea 2.50 pts win at 6.6 for a poss 13.72 profit (last leg of L15)
= 20.10 staked today
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No luck in my betting today but a lot went right in other ways so I'm happy.
Bad start to the month on - 20.10 and YTD is now -6.74.  30 days left to turn it around 🙂
 
 
 

They dont learn do they? not the first time quickthorn has done that

Nice one Ted, I had to follow you in when it drifted to a crazy price 🤑 

yeah ha had a bit of soppy seconds at 9's

Regarding Lord Riddifords previous form you can ignore that because every time he’s won at Goodwood he’s had poor form . He loves the course , connections target this race so anything previous or after just put a line through because this is his target. Also helped he was on a lower mark than his previous festival win. Well done winners. 
 
Existent was my top rated for this race which finished 2nd. Lord Riddiford and the favourite were joint top rated in the RPR/Weight experiment I’m doing 

Have done a L25 and acca on the fun L15  = 3.50 points
1.40 Gdwd Raasel 7 points win at 5.2 = 23.81p, Vintage Clarets 4 pts at 8.6 = 21.85 and a cover bet on Dream Composer of 1.10 at 12.0 = 1.08 p if it wins
= 15.60 staked so far.
Tied up a bit today, but hopefully back later
3.35 Yar Spit Spot 2 pts win at 8.8 = poss p 15.29
17.60 staked so far