Smiles Tennis

On holiday this week so my research is limited to a quick look when the kids are in bed before I hit the sack. 
Ostapenko to beat Stearns - 1.44 with Betfair
Pegula to beat Giorgi - 1.39 with Betfair
Pavlyuchenkova to beat Samsonova - 3.05 with Betfair
Kasatkina to beat Vondrousova - 3.2 with Betfair
 

Don’t like much tomorrow… I’ll bet on Stricker @3.5 vs. Paul, the courts are really slow and the American is not playing is best tennis lately
 
Edit: Also Seyboth Wild + 8.5 @1.80 vs. Medvedev, I like the Brazilian, he has nothing to lose and maybe will be able to take some games in this match

I make a profit though.  When I use opinion more than stats I make mistakes.  Results gets me profits for now but happy to change if it stops working. 

I make a profit though.  When I use opinion more than stats I make mistakes.  Results gets me profits for now but happy to change if it stops working. 

Shnaider to beat Marino - 1.58 with Betfair
As mentioned Marino doesn't play much on clay and she's worth opposing here imo. Shnaider is 67-21 on clay with Marino at 29-30, so Shnaider, who has just turned 19, has won more matches on clay in 3 years than Marino has played in her entire career spanning back to 2007. 
Putintseva to beat Zanevska - 1.54 with Betfair
Putintseva is levels above Zanevska. Her defeats on clay this year have been against Riera (probable tank after winning the first set), Gauff, Garcia and Alexandrova. Zanevska has lost 9 of her last 11 matches with her last three defeats coming against an out of form Teichmann, an unranked Strycova and Volynets who can't play on clay. 

Peyton Stearns (-3.5) to beat Katerina Siniakova at 1.79 with Unibet
As has already been pointed out, Siniakova hasn't played for quite a while now, while Stearns is an up-and-coming player that's made lots and lots of progress recently. She should be very hungry as well, and I can definitely see her running away with this one.
Dominic Thiem to beat Pedro Cachin at 1.80 with William Hill
The odds have now risen so much that I have to play Thiem over the three set format. He's improved at least somewhat recently, and he should have the fitness and experience edge if this goes on for a while.
Fabio Fognini to beat Felix Auger Aliassime at 3.20 with Unibet
With @four-leaf on this one!

Shnaider to beat Marino - 1.58 with Betfair
As mentioned Marino doesn't play much on clay and she's worth opposing here imo. Shnaider is 67-21 on clay with Marino at 29-30, so Shnaider, who has just turned 19, has won more matches on clay in 3 years than Marino has played in her entire career spanning back to 2007. 
Putintseva to beat Zanevska - 1.54 with Betfair
Putintseva is levels above Zanevska. Her defeats on clay this year have been against Riera (probable tank after winning the first set), Gauff, Garcia and Alexandrova. Zanevska has lost 9 of her last 11 matches with her last three defeats coming against an out of form Teichmann, an unranked Strycova and Volynets who can't play on clay. 

Masaraova to beat Gauff - 4.7 with Betfair
Some short price faves are going to be beaten. Gauff I think is a good contender for this. She's been off form this clay season, she's defending Final points so might feel the pressure and Masarova is no slouch on clay. Does Gauff win this match 80% of the time in her current form? I don't think so, so Masarova is worth a shot. 
Linette to beat Fernandez - 1.97 with Betfair
Fernandez is playing awful right now. She's attempting to change her serve motion and it's costing her, but she is determined to go with a lower throw and get more bend on it. She will revert to the high throw at times on break points but then carry on with the new style, and losing against anyone half decent. Linette should have this.
Cornet to beat Giorgi - 2.82 on Betfair
Giorgi doesn't prefer playing on clay. She pulled some good results out of the bag in Rome with the crowd behind her but here Cornet will have the crowd in what could be her last appearance here so will be all out to win and backing Giorgi at 1.52 on clay in France against a Frenchwoman who has played 220 matches on clay would make me feel uncomfortable. Giorgi has played just 76 matches on clay. 

Pera to beat Kontaveit - 1.94 with Betfair
I'm going with Pera here mainly because Kontaveit hasn't played much tennis. She's played three matches since 8th February and her only win came on clay against Parks which isn't hard. You need fitness and consistency to win on clay and Kontaveit will be rusty. 6-2  Kontaveit leads on tour level titles but none on clay, with Pera getting both her titles on clay. H2H is 1-1 with Pera getting her win last year, on clay as well. 
Burel to beat Sorribes Tormo - 3.5 with Betfair
Burel might be a bit tired after her run to the SF in Strasbourg where she played well before losing to a resurgent Svitolina but she shouldn't be this high. Sorribes Tormo does lead the h2h with the win coming on clay last year but SST was ranked in the #40s then (#132 now). SST reached the final of the 100K Madrid last week but no outstanding wins, Fernandez is so poor right now that it's not hard to beat her and Danilovic smashed SST in the final with SST being a strong fave (1.28). Burel will have the home crowd, she's reached the third round previously (SST best is 2R in 2019) and I really can't see how Burel is 3.5 here.
 

Masaraova to beat Gauff - 4.7 with Betfair
Some short price faves are going to be beaten. Gauff I think is a good contender for this. She's been off form this clay season, she's defending Final points so might feel the pressure and Masarova is no slouch on clay. Does Gauff win this match 80% of the time in her current form? I don't think so, so Masarova is worth a shot. 
Linette to beat Fernandez - 1.97 with Betfair
Fernandez is playing awful right now. She's attempting to change her serve motion and it's costing her, but she is determined to go with a lower throw and get more bend on it. She will revert to the high throw at times on break points but then carry on with the new style, and losing against anyone half decent. Linette should have this.
Cornet to beat Giorgi - 2.82 on Betfair
Giorgi doesn't prefer playing on clay. She pulled some good results out of the bag in Rome with the crowd behind her but here Cornet will have the crowd in what could be her last appearance here so will be all out to win and backing Giorgi at 1.52 on clay in France against a Frenchwoman who has played 220 matches on clay would make me feel uncomfortable. Giorgi has played just 76 matches on clay. 

Pera to beat Kontaveit - 1.94 with Betfair
I'm going with Pera here mainly because Kontaveit hasn't played much tennis. She's played three matches since 8th February and her only win came on clay against Parks which isn't hard. You need fitness and consistency to win on clay and Kontaveit will be rusty. 6-2  Kontaveit leads on tour level titles but none on clay, with Pera getting both her titles on clay. H2H is 1-1 with Pera getting her win last year, on clay as well. 
Burel to beat Sorribes Tormo - 3.5 with Betfair
Burel might be a bit tired after her run to the SF in Strasbourg where she played well before losing to a resurgent Svitolina but she shouldn't be this high. Sorribes Tormo does lead the h2h with the win coming on clay last year but SST was ranked in the #40s then (#132 now). SST reached the final of the 100K Madrid last week but no outstanding wins, Fernandez is so poor right now that it's not hard to beat her and Danilovic smashed SST in the final with SST being a strong fave (1.28). Burel will have the home crowd, she's reached the third round previously (SST best is 2R in 2019) and I really can't see how Burel is 3.5 here.
 

Rabat Final - Grabher to beat Bronzetti - 2.38 with Betfair
Both on good runs to the final, both had a tanker opponent (Trevisan and Stephens), Bronzetti was in terrible form until the last two weeks but now playing well. When we look at clay only ranking it's Grabher #15 v #49 for Bronzetti. Bronzetti does have 2 WTA tour level finals but she lost them both. When we look at overall finals at all levels, Grabher is 12-13, winning her last five. Bronzetti is 5-7 and has lost 7 of her last 8 so mentally she might struggle in finals. 
Overall titles at all levels Grabher 12 (11 on clay) v Bronzetti 5 (3 on clay). I make this a bit closer than the odds suggest and Grabher at 2.38 is value for me. 

Pera to beat Kontaveit - 1.94 with Betfair
I'm going with Pera here mainly because Kontaveit hasn't played much tennis. She's played three matches since 8th February and her only win came on clay against Parks which isn't hard. You need fitness and consistency to win on clay and Kontaveit will be rusty. 6-2  Kontaveit leads on tour level titles but none on clay, with Pera getting both her titles on clay. H2H is 1-1 with Pera getting her win last year, on clay as well. 
Burel to beat Sorribes Tormo - 3.5 with Betfair
Burel might be a bit tired after her run to the SF in Strasbourg where she played well before losing to a resurgent Svitolina but she shouldn't be this high. Sorribes Tormo does lead the h2h with the win coming on clay last year but SST was ranked in the #40s then (#132 now). SST reached the final of the 100K Madrid last week but no outstanding wins, Fernandez is so poor right now that it's not hard to beat her and Danilovic smashed SST in the final with SST being a strong fave (1.28). Burel will have the home crowd, she's reached the third round previously (SST best is 2R in 2019) and I really can't see how Burel is 3.5 here.
 

I've done the rest of the players who are priced in system range. Martial is the only other potential bet for this system (spreads 20-35) and he would be a bet at 13/5 which is a massive standout. He'd be a bet at anything over 2/1 and is shorter than that everywhere else. Shame it's not with 365 who offer "void if not starting" as I've been burnt a few times lately backing players who end up coming on as sub.
Weghorst, Antony and Fernandes are all potential "B" system bets (spreads 15-19) but are shorter than I'd be willing to back them at unless I could get my target price on the exchange.

Cheers, her and Blinkova so far today so it's going well so far. 

Strasbourg - Blinkova to beat Davis - 2.13 with Pinnacle
Similar records on clay at tour level, Davis 23-36, Blinkova 12-16 but the extra matches won't give Davis an extra edge at that number. I think Blinkova is the value here as she is in better form this week with a great win against an in form Navarro. Davis was a bit lucky with Pavlyuchenkova lacking the fitness for three setters on clay after her injury because she would have lost otherwise, despite playing some great shots. 
 

Nice one, had my eyes on Bronzetti and placed some good bets in-play..

Rabat - Bronzetti to beat Stephens - 2.9 with Betfair
Sloane isn't reliable enough on clay still to be this price. She's the better player but almost lost today and played the #237 ranked Babos and unranked Zvonareva in previous rounds. 
Bronzetti isn't as experienced but has reached the SF here last year and has reached a clay final at Palermo before so hopefully nerves don't hit her too much. Worth a shot at 2.9 with Sloane being in the form she's in. 

Yes, Svitolina played well yesterday. Her shots were flying and I can't see Burel having the weapons to trouble her. But I don't like backing less than about 1.7 now as I see to get them wrong whenever I do! lol

Nao Hibino to beat Ylena In-Albon at 1.58 with Unibet
Hibino has been one of the most pleasant surprises for me in recent times, she's really played herself into quite some form ahead of the qualifiers, and she looked very prepared in the previous round, completely out-playing a semi-competent opponent without wasting much energy. I think she's two levels ahead of In-Albon form-wise, and I like the odds for her to win.

Both bets came in yesterday, and I'm going for this today:
Lucas Pouille to beat Hsin Chun Tseng at 1.86 with Unibet
I watched Pouille a bit against Machac, and he really wants to be back it seemed to me. The crowd was supporting him a lot, as well, and Tseng is perhaps a worse opponent than Machac, really, so I'd have Pouille somewhat lower here.

WTA Rabat - Rakhimova to beat Parks - 1.67 with Betfair
Parks is only half decent indoors and it was a close second set for her to beat Tikhonova ranked #236. Parks has lost 10 of her last 13 on clay when an underdog. Rakhimova on the other hand has won her last five matches as favourite on clay and all in straight sets. She's had a positive clay record for five of the last six years and should get past Parks today. 
 
 

WTA Strasbourg - Davis to beat Tomova - 1.94 with Betfair
Davis beat Tomova a few weeks ago on clay. Tomova did win an 80K on clay last month but since then results have been mixed with losses to Burel and Grabher. Davis lost her first match on clay this year to Sebov but after that has lost to Cirstea twice and Cocciaretto. 
I think this is a case of higher level player Davis against the one with the clay court experience. Davis is in slightly better form in the last few weeks including already beating Tomova where she was 1.71 at the start of the match. 
 

WTA Strasbourg - Davis to beat Tomova - 1.94 with Betfair
Davis beat Tomova a few weeks ago on clay. Tomova did win an 80K on clay last month but since then results have been mixed with losses to Burel and Grabher. Davis lost her first match on clay this year to Sebov but after that has lost to Cirstea twice and Cocciaretto. 
I think this is a case of higher level player Davis against the one with the clay court experience. Davis is in slightly better form in the last few weeks including already beating Tomova where she was 1.71 at the start of the match. 
 

WTA Rabat - Rakhimova to beat Parks - 1.67 with Betfair
Parks is only half decent indoors and it was a close second set for her to beat Tikhonova ranked #236. Parks has lost 10 of her last 13 on clay when an underdog. Rakhimova on the other hand has won her last five matches as favourite on clay and all in straight sets. She's had a positive clay record for five of the last six years and should get past Parks today.