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Heisenberg68

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Posts posted by Heisenberg68

    Last Man Standing 2 - Week 4 (Deadline Mon 3pm)

    in Last Man Standing Competition

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Fader said:

    It's abit too close to get the thread out and everybody to answer. I gave everybody a heads up for Boxing Day but I wouldn't be able to get the thread up until tomorrow and then everybody would have to choose a team in the space of those couple days after. I'm also mindful that there was alot of no-shows over Boxing Day picks. Gives everybody a couple days extra. 

    So , i can choose Newcastle ( v Leeds )

    Anytime Goalscorer System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    1 minute ago, harry_rag said:

    @Torque asked me a similar question back in May and the gist of the reply was that it's harder to find prices that appear to offer value in the "multi scorer" markets than it is in the straight anytime markets, possibly because the casual punter might think a price (say 33/1 for a hat trick) is "big" and worth backing when it should be more like 40s or 50s. I'll review the numbers I posted then to see if the position has changed at all in terms of what I'd expect to see.

    From 1487 players, 562 scored one or more goals (37.97%). My actual bet strike rate lags that at 32.96%.

    Now 2209 players with 828 scoring at least once (37.48%) and actual bet strike rate 32.37% so fairly consistent in terms of those headline numbers.

    469 scored exactly 1 goal, 77 scored twice, 13 managed a hat trick and 3 have scored 4 or more goals.

    Now 688, 118, 18 and 4

    My average fair odds are 2.67. If they were accurate then you'd have expected 37.45% of the players to have scored one or more, or 557 so we're certainly in the right ballpark on that basis.

    Still 2.67 suggesting 827 players should have scored one or more (compared to 828 in reality) so the sample appears to be even more accurate now.

    Taking poisson as a guide, the expectations for 2 or more or a hat trick look like this:

    Brace: 8.12% or 120 versus actual number of 93 - now it's 179 expected versus 140 actual

    Hat trick: 1.22% or 18 versus actual number of 16 - 27 expected versus 22 actual

    Given how popular those players tend to be with punters it's quite hard to get them at an attractive price to score anytime; my feeling is that their price to score 2 or more is usually poor value. (There was a time when weekly singles and doubles on the Messi and Ronnie hat trick was a bit of a cash cow but the bookies cottoned on a while back.)

    Out of curiosity, I just totted up how much I've won or lost selling the goal minutes of the 5 players you mentioned (essentially betting on them NOT to score). It's 275 points profit from 144 bets with Salah at a remarkable +455 points (33 bets) and Lew and Mbappe costing me a combined 297 points (51 bets). 

    (Not sure you wanted such a detailed response but I was interested to revisit the figures a few months on!)

    it's clear ! thank you

    💠🕵️‍♂️ Heisenberg's Trade 🍁☕️🍂 2k23

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted · Edited by Heisenberg68

    Hi everyone ?


    This is Walter Write , aka Heisenberg ?️‍♂️ . I'm going to stop selling ? methamphetamine ? and I'm opening this topic to make some money.

    heisenberg.jpg.f3b92209be730ec230fd64ee4be6249a.jpg


    ? Let's be serious ?

    ? I'm starting this topic to register all my bets until December 31st 2023.

    After switching to trade offplay, I will continue in this direction, because I feel that the possibilities of making money are there.  I will rarely play on classic bets.

    Why am I switching to trade offplay?

    I have to admit that despite the good years at the beginning, betting has made me lose money for the last 3-4 years.
    I can't control my bets anymore, and I play everything and anything.
    The trade offplay could help me to be more patient, and to spend more time searching for the right information instead of playing stupidly 50% of my bank on a match between two unknowns in tennis ?

    How I will bet ?

    After a week of watching the horse racing markets, despite the huge amounts matched, the market is far too volatile and difficult to analyze, so I'm going to abandon this idea.

    Personally, I'm much better at sports, especially football.

    As long as the event is popular and the matched amounts are high, the possibility of a successful trade offplay is there.

    The World Cup is a very good time to start.

    I will not completely divulge my selection criteria.

    To tell the truth, I was interested in trade offplay a few years ago, but my bank would not allow me.


    The bank :

    For me, the offplay trade with a £500 bank is not interesting. You need a big bank.

    Because of the inflation of everyday life, i am not able to deposit much money.

    I will deposit £200 per month, and aim to earn 3% per month.

     

      Start of the month Bank +£200 Win 3 %
    01/23 £0 £200 £206
    02/23 £206 £406 £418
    03/23 £418 £618 £637
    04/23 £637 £837 £862
    05/23 £862 £1 062 £1 094
    06/23 £1 094 £1 294 £1 332
    07/23 £1 332 £1 532 £1 578
    08/23 £1 578 £1 778 £1 832
    09/23 £1 832 £2 032 £2 093
    10/23 £2 093 £2 293 £2 362
    11/23 £2 362 £2 562 £2 638
    12/23 £2 638 £2638 + £300 £3 025

     


    The goal:

    Continue to learn the trade offplay while preparing for 2024 with an adequate bank

     

     

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     

    Update : New Bussiness Plan after the february - march break

     

      Start of the month Bank +£200 Win 3 %
    01/23 £0 £200 £206
    02/23 £206 £406 £406
    03/23 £406 £406 £406
    04/23 £406 £406 £418
    05/23 £418 £618 £637
    06/23 £637 £837 £862
    07/23 £862 £1 062 £1 094
    08/23 £1 094 £1 294 £1 332
    09/23 £1 332 £1 532 £1 578
    10/23 £1 578 £1 778 £1 832
    11/23 £1 832 £2 032 £2 093
    12/23 £2 093 £2093 + £300 £2 465

     

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