blueboy199

Boreham Wood v Notts County (National League) Not a game I was planning on getting involved, but then originally the home side were 5/4 and now you can get 2/1 and bigger which for me is the wrong price. County did dominate last week against Maidenhead and fully deserved their comfortable win, but this game should be much tougher. As we know Wood are very hard to beat at home and they got off to a very good start when beating Southend 1-0 last week. They ended up with only 9 men on the pitch as well so to hold on was especially impressive. They did only have 4 shots the whole match, but it was a great move for the goal and they could allow Southend to have a lot of the ball because their xG of 0.67 from 11 shots highlights they created very little during the game despite having 68% of possession. You would imagine County will be capable of creating better chances, but then I would imagine Wood will also look to be on the front foot more at home. I'd probably make the away side slight favs, but nowhere near as heavy favs as they are so I am happy to play.   Maidstone v York (National League) I was very happy with the performance from York last week given we are on them ante-post albeit they did beat one of the other tips Woking who were very disappointing. York hadn't had a very good pre-season, but it just highlights that pre-season form is basically meaningless when it comes to the real action. Maidstone did better than I thought they would at Altrincham, but it could be I have overrated Alty and I certainly think York will finish above them this season. I'm surprised that the home side have been backed for this as I think York have the superior side and hopefully that can play out on Saturday.   Yeovil v Wrexham (National League) I really think Yeovil could be in a relegation battle this season and nothing I saw in the live game against Scunthorpe last week changed my mind. They were hardly in the game at all and were slightly fortunate to even score 1 given their xG was just 0.64. Scunthorpe's 2nd goal was a defensive disaster as Yeovil's defence and midfield just allowed Jacob Butterfield to run and run from just inside his own half as they backed off him until he reached the penalty box and he got a shot away and scored. It was literally as if they just let him have an open invitation to score a goal If they defend in a similar way against Wrexham then the Welsh side's attackers should have a field day. They surprisingly made hard work of beating Eastleigh last week, but Eastleigh's goal came via a bad goalkeeping error and after that it was pretty much all Wrexham. They had 20 shots for an xG of 2.14, they had 67.8% possession and most impressively they had an accuracy rate of 85% from the 481 passes they attempted during the game. Take out the keeping error and they win easily and they really ought to do the same on Saturday. Not surprisingly Wrexham have been backed, but they still look value to cover the -1 handicap.   Chorley v Darlington (National League North) The xG's in Chorley's opening game were 0.57 for Chorley and 0.34 for AFC Telford which pretty much sums up the quality of the game. Telford ended up winning it win 1-0 and the goal was pure route one coming from a kick out from the keeper with the ball flicked on for the striker to score. It was also helped by the fact a Chorley defender slipped and in reality, the game should have been goalless. I don't think Chorley look as strong as they did last season and Darlington do so, I think they are overpriced here. They beat my own side Gloucester on the opening day 3-1 and whilst a sending off just after Gloucester had equalised helped, I do think Darlington deserved their victory. I'd make Darlington slight favs to win this.   St Albans v Oxford City (National League South) I was a bit surprised Oxford were beaten 3-1 on the opening day at home to Eastbourne, but I think conceding a penalty after 4 minutes didn't help and then the 2nd goal came on 25 minutes which was a tap in almost on the line from a corner. To come from that in the first game of the season was always going to be tough and I think they are better than they were able to show. They travel to a St Albans side who got a point against Chelmsford in what was a poor game of football. I think Chelmsford will struggle this season so for St Albans to struggle against them doesn't exactly bode well. Oxford made the play-offs last season and I think they will be eyeing up the top 7 again so they will be looking to get their first victory on the board here.   Stourbridge v Tamworth (Southern Premier Central) Our main bets for the title Tamworth hosted the favourites Ilkeston on the opening day of the season and it ended in a 1-1 draw after the teams shared goals in the last 10 minutes. Perfectly satisfactory start to the season for them and I am hoping they can get their first win on the season on Saturday against Stourbridge. It was a heavy 3-0 defeat to Alvechurch on Saturday for their opening game and that suggests things aren't going to get any better for them after a tough season last time around. I'd make Tamworth clear favourites.   Boreham Wood 1pt @ 9/4 with SBK and Bet365 (take up to 7/4) York 1pt @ 2/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred and SBK (Bet365 are 9/4 and take up to 6/4) Wrexham -1 1pt @ 6/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Skybet (take up to 5/4) Darlington 1pt @ 7/4 with Skybet, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 11/8) Oxford City 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 6/4) Tamworth 1pt @ 29/20 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 5/4)

Not going to go mad on the first weekend as I don't pay much attention to friendlies and things are more based on how I feel teams are going to do during the season. It is just the 3 bets for me on day 1.   Torquay v Oldham Torquay may have missed out on their best chance of promotion when they finished 2nd to Sutton a couple of years ago and then lost in a dramatic play-off final to Hartlepool. That final took place in late June because of Covid and that meant Torquay had little time before the new season started and that certainly hindered Gary Johnson's preparations. They struggled for the first few months of the season and it wasn't really until the 2nd half of the season where they really got going, but by then it was way too late to make a play-off bid. They have lost some of the stars from last season's team, but Johnson is one of the best managers at this level and I trust him to have got a good team together especially having been able to have had a full pre-season. Fans of relegated Oldham will be delighted that a takeover was finalised last week, but that hasn't come soon enough for me and their squad looks short of what is required to be challenging at the right end of the table at the current stage. Manager John Sheridan didn't have a great time of things when he was last manager in this league at Chesterfield and the fact he is in charge doesn't exactly fill me with confidence about their chances for the season either. It could be some money will be spent at some stage, but the squad isn't good enough for me at the moment. Johnson knows this level like the back of his hand and I think he and his Torquay side can get off to the perfect start to the new season.   Hemel Hempstead v Farnborough The away side owe us after losing the title last season and I think they can get off to a winning start on their first season back at this level. They got their business out of the way quite early on and I was impressed with the quality of player they were signing. They might even be capable of sneaking into the play-offs. My feeling is they will be better prepared going into the start of the season than their hosts who had a very underwhelming season last time around. I'm not expecting a great deal of improvement, certainly to start with anyway, and I think it will be an away win here.   Taunton v Welling Given I think Welling are going to have a very good season they look way overpriced to me in this game. Granted Taunton come here on the back of winning the title and the amount of points they won in the final 30 games of the season was staggering. They became winning machines, but I'm not sure they have strengthened all that much in the close season and losing their loanee goalkeeper on the eve of the season is hardly ideal. They might not end up in a relegation battle, but they look a bottom half of the table side to me. I don't need to repeat my views on Welling here given I have covered them in the ante-post preview, but if I am right then they look great value and they are my Nap's on the opening day.   AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Needham Market I think Needham Market look value against Rushden. Rushden lost their manager to Tamworth last season and it looks to me like they could well struggle this time around. There has been a big turn around in players and their squad doesn't look good enough at the moment. Needham Market are a solid team and they are capable of winning this.   Torquay 1pt @ 11/8 with SBK (take up to 6/5) Farnborough 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 13/8) Welling 2.5pts @ 11/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 7/4) Needham Market 1pt @ 21/10 with Betfred, Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 6/4)

National League This season sees the shortest price favourites that I can remember for the National League in the shape of Wrexham and they clearly deserve to be at the head of the market as they have the best team in the division and one that wouldn't look out of place in League 1. They haven't been as busy in the transfer market as I thought they would be, but it wouldn't surprise me if more players did arrive before the end of August. At the time I thought they paid enough money for Ollie Palmer from AFC Wimbledon, but he managed to score 15 goals after he joined which was a staggering return from just 22 games. Alongside Mullin they had a great front two and if both stay fit you have to think they will be looking at the possibility of scoring 50 goals between them. I have little doubt they have the best squad in the division, but what they don't have in my view is the best manager. Phil Parkinson was found wanting last season for me and I do think if they win the title it will be despite his abilities as a manager. The hope for Wrexham fans is that either that happens or that Parkinson has learnt from his first season in charge. Early in the season they struggled at home and were superb away, but that switched towards the end of the season and they put in some poor performances on their travels which cost them the title. If they can iron those issues out then they probably walk away with the title, but things are rarely that easy in the National League. Ultimately though I do think they are the most likely team to win the title, but I just can't back them at 6/4 as I would ideally want 5/2 at least. What I wouldn't mind happening is them having a poorer than hoped for start to the season and then he gets the sack and they get someone better in as happened at Stockport last season. Then would be the time to back them, but really it's hard to see them ever getting to decent price. They are one for any multi's you are going to do, but as I a single I just think they are too short.   Notts County are next in the betting as they look to get out of the league at the third time of asking after losing in the play-offs the last couple of seasons. I was a bit surprised to see Ian Burchnall leave to go to Forest Green Rovers because I didn't think he did a great job at County. They were never really in title contention at any stage although at the end they were only 6 points behind Wrexham. I think they have taken a bit of a risk going with Luke Williams as manager (or head coach as they like to describe the role). As I say every season you need a manager who knows the league to win the league and Williams has no experience at all of Non-League football. It was suggested that County tried to get the Altrincham manager Phil Parkinson in, but he turned them down. I'm sure it will a manager with no Non-League experience will win the league at some point, but I certainly don't think it is factored into their odds. Signings wise it has been an interesting summer as they have started to look at Step 2 having snapped up two Gateshead strikers and a couple from Kidderminster. The scouting website Wyscout covered Step 2 for the first-time last season and it wouldn't surprise me if that information coming available has led to them looking downwards for players. If Macauley Langstaff and Cedwyn Scott can replicate the success they had at Gateshead last season then that will put County right in the mix, but whilst Gateshead were a step above their rivals last year, it was a weak division, and they will face much stronger defences this time around. They should be good for the play-offs again, but I think they will fall short of the title again with Williams being a big risk for me.   I better be careful what I say about what James Rowe did to get himself sacked from Chesterfield, but if that hadn't happened and Tshimanga doesn't get injured then I think they would have won the league last season because they were so far clear of Stockport and Wrexham. However Rowe left and not long after than Tshimanga had a season ending injury against Weymouth. Paul Cook proved to be a shocking choice of manager and as much as injuries didn't help his cause he looked clueless as manager. In the end they were lucky to even reach the play-offs and whilst he is manager of Chesterfield I couldn't possibly back them for the league. There has been a big turnover in playing staff and to be fair they have got a decent squad again. The key thing for them though is how well Tshimanga has recovered from his major injury and he hasn't featured in pre-season which suggests he won't be ready for the start of the season. He was looking good for 40 goals last season which would have been a staggering effort and clearly any team who have a striker scoring that many is going to go close. If he struggles though or if he leaves then I don't think they will get close to winning the title and it wouldn't surprise me if Cook isn't manager come the end of the season. What I will say though is there is no excuses now for Cook as he has the team he wants now and maybe he will prove me wrong.   The next team in the betting are Solihull who had a stunning season to finish 3rd under Neil Ardley. I wasn't sure he was the right man for the job when they hired him, but he did a better job than he had done with Notts County the previous season. At the time I thought they should choose Mark Yates who did very well as a temporary manager the season before, but Yates went back to Stourbridge and had a disastrous time of things and got sacked! Amazing how football works sometimes. I was really impressed with them last season and it should be remembered that they finished just 1 point behind Wrexham in the end. Now losing play-off finalists don't have a great record the following season and their can be a hangover for sure. I don't think that will happen here though and I think Solihull have done great business over the summer. First, keeping Joe Sbarra was a very pleasant surprise for them and then they picked Josh Kelly last week from Maidenhead which was a good move (he chose them over Southend). They might just be capable of over turning the losing play-off finalists stat.   Halifax overachieved again last season under Pete Wild and to get them to the play-offs was a superb effort. He's gone now though as has quite a few key players from that side and I just can't have them at all. They can't keep overachieving and I reckon they might even end up in a relegation battle. Dagenham & Redbridge had a great start to the season, but then flattered to deceive a bit and I'm just not sure McMahon is the man to kick them onto the next step and get them in the play-offs. It would surprise me if they finished just outside them again. Torquay could be interesting. Gary Johnson is one of the best managers in the league and they were hampered massively by the fact the play-off final was so close to the start of the season. They've lost some key players, but Johnson knows what it takes to build a good team at this level and whilst they look no more than fairly priced, they could well end up in the play-offs if Johnson has got it right again.   I don't fancy either of the relegated sides at this stage. Oldham look like they will be taken over which will help them, but Sheridan didn't exactly do much as Chesterfield manager so his experience at this level isn't great. They look under priced to me. Scunthorpe look in a right mess and if there was relegation betting available, I would be putting them up as a bet. Another team who I think would be final to go down is Yeovil. If your manager is leaving to go to Woking, then that doesn't say a great deal about the sort of budget that is available. I'm not sure about Chris Hargreaves as manager. He didn't do that well when he managed before and wen I listen to him on BT Sport's coverage of the league he doesn't strike me as someone who would make a great manager. I don't think they have done great business and I think they will struggle.   Boreham Wood suffered badly from injuries around the time they played Everton in the FA Cup and that hindered them badly in the final months of the season. They managed to go from title contenders to missing out on the play-offs. Luke Garrard is one of the best managers in the league and whilst he stays, I can see them always being in the mix for the play-offs.    I think Southend could be in for a very good season. I like the set-up behind the scenes and having John Still and Darren Currie involved is a big plus for me. Their involvement helped turn things around for them massively after the disaster that was Phil Brown. Still knows this level like the back of his hand and I think he's recruited well. You have to think that if the current set-up had been in place a year ago then they would have been play-off contenders so there should be improvement to come and with the new signings they look a much stronger side as well.   Those teams make up the top half of the betting and whilst Wrexham might well end up winning it like I say they are for multi bets only. For me, the value is with Solihull Moors. I would make them 2nd favourites based on the squad they have, and I just really liked the way they went about things last season. Given how strongly they finished the campaign you would hope that despite losing the play-off final they can kick on this season and at the very least finish in the top 3 again. I am also going to back Southend. I have a small doubt if they can make the step up to title contenders, but they have a strong squad and they are over priced for me.   There are two more teams I want to add from the bottom half of the betting. First of all I really don't get the price of Woking. Like I mention above they were able to get Darren Sarll from Yeovil last season and that more me said a lot about their ambition. I put them up last season as I thought they were way overpriced, and they got some huge victories early on. It sort of went wrong after that though and it cost Alan Dowson his job. I think Sarll was a good choice of manager and I think they have done some very good business over the summer. I just can't make them 50/1 shots and I would love a match bet with them at Yeovil at the very least! The other team I like at a big price is York. Now clearly going from National League North Play-Off winners to National League champions is going to be some feat, but they have been taken over and they seem to have a bit of money to spend based on their summer signings. It was a big surprise that Chesterfield let Alex Whittle go and the fact York managed to sign him up was a big sign to their chances. What I also like is the fact they have a league winner as their manager in the shape of John Askey. How on earth he got Macclesfield to win the title I will never know, but it is probably the best managerial performance at this level since I started betting on it in the 07/08 season. I could see them surprising a few people and am happy to have a small bet on them.   The top goalscorer market was especially painful last year given Tshimanga should have been a winning 40/1 bet. This season he is just 9/1 which probably isn't a bad price, but as I mention above it looks like he is missing the start of the season and it might take him a bit of time to get up to speed. He could be worth chancing at bigger odds once he returns to full strength. Last season's winner Paul Mullin heads the betting, but for me the value lies with his strike partner Ollie Palmer. As I point out above, he had an amazing scoring record after he moved to Wrexham from AFC Wimbledon and you have to think that if he had been there all season, he would have outscored Mullin. On that basis I am happy to have a small interest in Palmer e/w.   Solihull Moors 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with Bet365 Southend 0.75pts e/w 22/1 with Skybet Woking 0.25pts e/w @ 61/1 with Skybet and 50/1 everywhere else (sadly the 80/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair is win only) York 0.25pts e/w @ 40/1 with everyone Ollie Palmer to be top goalscorer 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

I'm looking forward to the 2.10 at Worcester this afternoon as for the first time a horse I have a share in looks set to be favourite for a race. You may remember Intrepide Sud ran in the point to point bumper at Aintree when ridden by Gina. The horse was very keen and she struggled to control him which takes some doing given how strong she is. It was actually a surprise that he was that keen and in the end she just had to let him stride on. I have seen a clip of Gina talking after the race and she said that he must be a good horse to run like that and not be beaten all that far. I know I said I didn't think the race was that strong, but he clearly has the potential to be much better than that run showed and in all honestly the race this afternoon looks even worse on paper. He has gone to Fergal O'Brien and he really likes the horse as does Paddy Brennan after he rode him in a piece of work. If he can translate his home work to the racecourse I do think he is the most likely winner of the race. Obviously the concern is he is too keen again and he might need a bit more time to learn to settle, but he wasn't keen in his point victory at Garthorpe and he's not keen on the gallops so hopefully it was just a one off at Aintree.   Western Safire was the other one at the head of the market but she is now a non-runner. Even so it does look like she's the main danger. Putalinthroughit makes is a newcomer but he was a cheap purchase so hard to think he is anything special, but clearly its a weak race so he might be able to run well. Milfolhas Has makes his debut for the Bowen's having run in a couple of points last year. First up he was 6th in a bumper and then he pulled up in a maiden over 3m. He did show a glimmer of promise there and clearly he's gone to a good yard, but I don't think he's shown as much Intrepide Sud so he needs to have improved in the last year to beat him in my view. Orange Gina has finished 4th at big prices in bumpers in 2020 and 2021. The first she was well beaten, but last time finished much closer having led. That was a bad race though and again the fact she led at a slow pace probably means she was flattered. Tampico Rocco was 6th in this race last on his only ever start and although well beaten he did show a little promise. For some reason Charlie My Boy was been backed from 200/1 into single figures. He's been stuffed in all 3 starts and has only beaten one horse home so god knows whose backing it as there is nothing to recommend him at all, but he has just become a non-runner which seems a bit suspicious to me.   So all in all it looks a terrible contest and I unless he's too keen for his own good again then I struggle to see how anything will be good enough to beat if he replicates his home work. Shame the price isn't bigger, but it is hardly a surprise given how bad the race is.   Intrepid Sud @ Evs with most bookies

Quite how Bet365 made The Big Sting a 6/1 shot for the 1.30 at Worcester this afternoon I don't know. He's 6/8 in points the season just gone so that alone made me think he would be a fairly short priced favourite. Then when you look at the fact in his last one he stuffed Port O'Clock by 20L and that one landed an Exeter hunter chase in April and went very close to landing a handicap at Worcester a couple of weeks ago off 100. The Big Sting has a mark of 90 for this race so that form alone gives him a massive chance here. His other form is good and even the 2 2nds are very good pieces of form in the context of this race. One of the horses who beat him was Indirocco who we know ran well in a couple of hunter chases this year. He could have been found a weaker race to be fair as a few of these come here in good form and the main danger for me is probably Ballymilan who looks like there could well be more to come having won his last two. Basically though if The Big Sting shows his pointing form then he really ought to win and I still think the price is value.   The Big Sting @ 7/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor

A couple of winners last week including the Nap. We have action most Sunday's now between now and the end of August and there are 3 more races at Casterton in the early hours of the morning. Probably my favourite jumps track in Oz because I love the hedge fences they have their and well worth checking out the steeplechase race if you don't usually watch the tips and just look at the result.
Race 1
As usual we start with the maiden hurdle and I do like the look of Hakuna Matata. She was 2nd here on the first hurdles start this prep and the winner Onset has boosted the form since as has the 3rd Dubawi Prince. A couple of weeks after that she went to Hamilton and tried to make all, but wasn't able to see it out and was beaten by Fort Charles who ran well last week. They look two really solid 2nd places in the context of this race and I think she can get a deserved hurdles success. Cappellani has certainly improved for his first hurdles start in Australia when he was behind Hakuna Matata in 5th place over course and distance. He was then 3rd at Hamilton behind Dubawi Prince and then 3rd last week behind Mighty Oasis when he was doing his best work late and was only beaten a couple of lengths. That suggests stepping back up to this trip should suit and he is certainly a danger. Gravistas ran OK at Sale and has place claims on his 3rd at Hamilton the start before. The other one to mention is good old Zedstar who has had 10 starts over jumps now for 4 2nds and 4 3rds. He was disappointing on his debut over fences at Hamilton and wasn't great on the flat at Geelong last week. He will surely win a maiden hurdle at some point, but he's clearly a frustrating horse. I think the price on Hakuna Matata is too big and she makes plenty of appeal.
Hakuna Matata 2pts @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Ladbrokes
Race 2
Tamarack was 2nd in the Australian Hurdle last time, but I'm not sure the strength of that race is that good behind the very good winner Saunter Boy. He ran over course and distance before that and was beaten 7L into 3rd place. I certainly think he's a possible winner, but I am going to look elsewhere. Cheners was 2nd over fences last time and was just beaten by Runaway. He does tend to run his race, but he has won just twice in 27 jumps starts so as much as he has place claims in a race like this I'm not sure he is going to win. Onset has done us well this season having won twice when we have been on including last time at Sale. The other win was when she beat Hakuna Matata over course and distance. I was impressed with her win last time and although she wasn't quite as good in the two runs in between those two wins she can win a race like this. She beat Yulong Rising last time, but I can't see the form being reversed although it was that one's first jumps run so he could build on it. The most likely winner for me though is Tolemac who has done very well over hurdles this prep. He was just in front of Onset at Warrnambool when 2nd and he was 2nd over course and distance when just getting caught late on. Mighty Oasis was 2nd to him at Hamilton and obviously he franked the form last week. He goes into handicaps for the first time, but he has a good chance of making it a winning one. So Tolemac is the main bet, but I will have a saver on Onset as well.
Tolemac 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365
Onset 0.5pts @ 4/1 with everyone
Race 3
Elvison was so impressive when bolting up over course and distance last month that I have to be with him here. Historic was 25L back in 2nd and he reposes here having followed that run up with a win, but I can't see him reversing form if Elvison is in top form. Elvison ran on the 7 day back up in the Australian Chase, but his trainer said before the race that he was only running him there because it was a small field that wasn't very strong. He ran well enough to finish 2nd to his stablemate Britannicus and the month off will have done him good no doubt. He jumped so well over the hedge fences and that course form could well prove crucial here. Police Camp has come out which is a shame as it means Elvison is odds on now. Police Camp won a trial at Warrnambool on Tuesday and in that trial he beat Te Kahu who is going to be making his Australian debut here. In New Zealand he won 3 times over fences including over 6200m on his last start in October. Now he has won over 3500m, but when watching that trial he seemed to lack a bit of toe and even though this is 3800m I just wonder if he is going to come into his own when seeing a real test of stamina. He is with the right training team with Maher & Eustace so I certainly respect him, but I think Elvison can add to his course and distance win last month and even though he's odds on I think he still offers value at 8/11.
Elvison 3pts @ 8/11 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes

Cartmel's opener this afternoon sees Grageelagh Girl look to right the wrong of the last hunter chase of the season. I'm sure you all remember the weight cloth coming off after the last fence and thus she had to be disqualified. She would have won anyway and I did say in the race review that it wouldn't surprise me if her trainer decided to take advantage of the handicap mark. I also mentioned I didn't think the handicapper could touch the mark given the mark of the 2nd and that is exactly what has happened. She goes back over hurdles tomorrow and she has good hurdles form. She last ran over them at Bangor in 2020 and finished a close 3rd off 108 so even on that run the mark of 102 in a lower grade makes her look well handicapped. She's clearly in very good form at the moment and I think the drop in trip will help as I was worried she wouldn't stay in the final hunter chase of the season. She was entered at Newton Abbot earlier in the week, but I suspect Fergal has chosen this race as his daughter can take the ride against fellow amateur riders again. She's been entered over fences next week so a quick follow up wouldn't be a shock either. This is a very weak contest and I can only really make a case for the two horses who won the 2 divisions of a handicap hurdle over course and distance last month. Dan Gun has only gone up 3lbs but he wasn't quite as impressive as On We Go who has been in great form for her new yard. She's gone up 9lbs, but I still think there could be more to come and she is the biggest danger for me. I will probably end up having a saver on her given I think she might drift as I suspect Grageelagh Girl will be well backed. Sometimes you see something surprising in a race like this, but I'd be a bit surprised if that happened here given the strong claims of those two.   Grageelagh Girl @ 7/2 with Bet365   In the 2nd race I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Watch Law. Now the Irish horses at the head of the market might just be too good for him, but I have watched his last point run and I think he has a fair bit of ability. He jumped pretty terribly for most of the race and was still only just beaten. He clearly has an engine as they pulled a long way clear of the others. Hopefully he can jump hurdles better because if he does I think he might be capable of out running his odds at the very least.   Watch Law ew @ 20/1 with Bet365   In the 3.40 I think Post No Bills is worth backing e/w. His pointing form suggests that his handicap mark is one he could well win off and he makes his chasing debut in a pretty poor race this afternoon. He put his best run yet over hurdles last time at Fakenham and I think he can improve again for going over fences. Bookies are going 4 places and I would be a bit surprised if he didn't finish in the first 4 at least. Darius Des Sources is a danger as a wind op seems to have helped him based on his last two efforts and the Perth 3rd last time was his best run in ages. The main danger though is the favourite Mah Mate Bob who ran really well here last time when 2nd in a race he won last season. He's still 11lbs below that winning mark and down into Class 5 company he surely will go close again.   Post No Bills ew @ 13/2 with Bet365

3 jumps race at Sale tomorrow morning and here are my thoughts on them.   Race 1 Don't think this is a very strong contest. Twin Spinner is favourite at the time of writing and he has had two hurdle runs in New Zealand the 2nd of which he finished 2nd. He's had 3 flat runs here and a couple of trials and he hasn't shown a great deal it has to be said. Like I say its not a strong race and he might be good enough, but I am happy enough to look elsewhere. 5 of these ran in the maiden hurdle contests at Hamilton last week and I imagine one of those will get their head in front. I Arize was favourite last week when I wrote my preview, but was a huge drifter and he went off $11. He ran no sort of race though and I couldn't back him here. Heroic Fighter was well beaten in 5th and I didn't see too much promise in that run. Dr Dependable has had 6 goes over hurdles now and has only placed once although the two 4ths at Casterton and Hamilton were decent enough efforts. The issue is Gravistas (ex Mark Johnson) was 3L and a place in front of him last week and I think he will uphold that form. It was just his 2nd run over hurdles after finishing 5th at Warrnambool which was a fair enough debut. I thought he travelled well into the race last week and just couldn't live with the first 2 late on. I don't think there is anything as good as either of those two in this so he has a good chance here. I also have to have a saver on Chairman's List who looks overpriced. He had two flat runs before the 4th at Hamilton and I think he will be fitter again here. He was a bit keen and just faded late on into 4th place. If he builds on that here then he has a better chance of winning than his odds suggest.   Gravistas 1pt @ 16/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power Chairman's List 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power and William Hill   Race 2 Hey Happy is favourite for this at the time of writing which is a bit surprising as he was pulled up last week at Hamilton. His jockey reported to the stewards that he was under pressure from some way out and that he may have not backed up his recent jump starts at Casterton and Sandown. He also had a slower than normal recovery. Because of that I'm surprised that they are going again with him so soon and I am happy to take him on. Onset and Cernan were 3rd and 4th in that contest, which was won easily by Big Blue. They carried the same weight that day, but here Onset gets 1kg from Cernan and he was 4.5L in front of him at Hamilton. Onset had the better form for me going into that race and she should uphold that form. That could mean she wins the race, but the unknown runner is Yulong Rising who is easily the best of these on the flat and makes his hurdles debut. He's had a couple of trials and jumps well enough and he had a run on the flat last week at Sandown which was his first race since October. No doubt that was a prep for this and the fact they have decided to go the handicap route rather than the maiden route suggests they think he can win this. I'm happy to back both him and Onset as they look the two most likely winners to me and Hey Happy is helping make the market.   Yulong Rising 1pt @ 9/4 with everyone apart from Bet365 Onset 1pt @ 16/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair   Race 3 Some of these ran at Hamilton last week. Flying Pierro and Cheners were 3rd and 4th in the open steeplechase behind Historic. Flying Pierro didn't jump well so if he improved on that he wouldn't be out of this, whilst Cheners was a little disappointing. Looking Around was 3rd in the 0-114 chase which was a weak affair and he was beaten 28L. Joshua Reynolds failed to finish in one of the maiden hurdles and he has certainly becoming disappointing over hurdles having started off this year with a very promising 2nd at Hamilton in April. He trialled over fences 4 days after the run last week and I was impressed with his jumping so maybe the larger obstacles will spark him back to life. Ultimately though I want to see how he gets on in a race first so I suspect the race will be between Runaway and Valac. Runaway made his steeple debut at Warrnambool last month and he was running well enough until he got hampered at the last by a faller and he ended up basically pulling up. It's hard to know where he would have finished, but probably 3rd in front of Cheners. He then ran in a BM120 Hurdle at Sandown when 3rd behind Blandford Lad and Constantinople which was a fair effort.    Runaway just seems to have become a bit frustrating though and I think Valac can win this. He's never actually run on a heavy track before so that is an unknown, but if connections are happy to run him on it then I am happy to back him. This race is much weaker than the two chases he has run in. First of all he won a BM125 on his chasing debut at Pakenham and then he was running a huge race in the Brierly at Warrnambool when falling at 2 out. Again hard to know where he would have finished but he was travelling every bit as well as the winner. He had a trial last week where he finished last but it was clearly being used as a school round for him. He jumped well apart from one mistake. This looks a good race to get him back on track and I must admit I think he only has to jump round safely to collect.   Valac 2.5pts @ 7/4 with William Hill

Hexham used to have a hunter chase on Derby Day, but sadly that hasn't been around for a few years now. However we do have a potentially well handicapped pointer in the shape of Frankies Fire in action in the opener. Now she ran in this race last year and came last without really ever getting out of last place. Hopefully it can be the complete opposite this afternoon. She ran a few times last summer and showed very little, but she had a one off run over hurdles at Carlisle last March and she finished a good 3rd so it's not like she has never shown promise over hurdles. As I have mentioned in the previews for the 2 hunter chases that she has run in this year, she has looked a different horse this season in points. She's beaten 2 hunter chase winners and has finished 2nd twice to Senor Lombardy, who finished 5th in the Festival hunter chase and Kalabaloo who has won a hunter chase in the past and was 2nd at Cheltenham in April. Then came the 2 hunter chase runs where she finished lame in the first of them and then tried hard in the race won by Downtown Getaway, but found it too tough in the end and pulled up. I'm not surprised they are trying hurdles with her as I get the feeling she's not big enough for rules fences. Crucially she hacked up at Hexham's point to point track 10 days after the Kelso effort. That proves she can do it at a rules course and now she's just got to go and do it in a race run under rules. She does run from 3lbs out of the handicap here, but then her jockey takes 7lbs off and let's be fair on pointing form she has probably about 2st in hand so that doesn't worry me at all. Obviously there is going to be that question about her going and doing it in a handicap and she could disappoint again, but she could be so well handicapped that she has to be backed.    The favourite Bird On The Wire does look like the biggest danger as he's fairly consistent and ran well over course and distance a couple of weeks ago when 3rd. Frankie Fire's stablemate West Lawn won over course and distance in March, but has run poorly in two runs since. Fraterculus is another whose fairly consistent although he's never won and wasn't great last time, but his yard's horses are still running well and he has a good jockey on top. It's hard to say anything positive about the others so it isn't a strong race and Frankies Fire has the potential to have so much in hand over the handicapper that she should be pushing for favouritism.   Frankies Fire @ 6/1 with most bookies

With the maiden hurdle dividing 3 times we have 6 jumps races at Hamilton on Tuesday morning. Here are my thoughts on those races.
Race 1 I Arize is favourite on his hurdles debut which is based on the fact he is the best flat horse of these. He might prove good enough, but he's not even trialled since April 8th and his last two jumps trials were both over fences. I'm happy enough to take him on. Olmeto jumped well on his last hurdles trial and he ran well on the flat last week when 3rd at Mornington so he might prove to be the best of the hurdling newcomers. I'm going to go with one of those who has already been over hurdles in the shape of Hakuna Matata. I thought she ran very well at Casterton and she made a terrible blunder at 2 out which didn't help her cause. Onset came into the race with the best form so she was beaten by the right horse and the drop down in trip will help her as well. I think she can go one place better here.   Hakuna Matata 1pt @ 16/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair   Race 2 This looks a bit of a match to me between Mighty Oasis and Tolemac. I thought Mighty Oasis ran really well at Warrnambool as he was a close 2nd to Count Zero who has won since. They pulled well clear of the rest so the form looks strong. Tolemac was also 2nd at Warrnambool to Rider In The Snow and then was just denied by Hey Happy at Casterton last time. Again the front two pulled well clear. I think the drop down in trip will help him. I'm just going to side with Mighty Oasis. For a start he's a bigger price, but his Warrnambool race was won in a quicker time and had a faster last 600m sectional. Given the winner has gone in since I think he has the stronger form.   Mighty Oasis 1pt @ 11/4 with Coral and Ladbrokes   Race 3 I thought Killourney was disappointing at Warrnambool especially as he was backed into 1/2 to win and he could only finish a 10L 4th. His flat form is bar far the best in this and he could go and win, but he's odds on again and I can't say that appeals. I thought there was a bit of promise in Dubawi Prince's 3rd on hurdles debut at Casterton a couple of weeks ago which was behind Onset and Hakuna Matata so the form could get a boost in the first race. I think he's a fair price to possibly overturn the favourite. Hopefully Joshua Reynolds wont win having backed him all 4 starts this prep, but he just seems to have gone backwards from the course and distance 2nd in April.   Dubawi Prince 1pt @ 4/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair, Ladbrokes and Coral   Race 4 There is plenty of rain in the forecast and because of that I am going to side with Roland Garros. I thought Casterton was going to ride softer a couple of weeks ago, but it didn't and he was a big disappointment. It also didn't help that he didn't plenty of work in the early stages so he had little left late on. If we get a heavy track then I think he wins and at this stage that looks likely so I will put him up again.   Hey Happy is favourite and he ran OK on the 7 day back up last week, but it is only 9 days since that Sandown 4th. He has a chance but looks short enough. Big Blue ran no short of race on his come back at Warrnambool and I want to see more from him before thinking of backing him, but he certainly has the back class to win this. El Diez and Onset wouldn't be without claims either.   Roland Garros 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes   Race 5 This isn't a race I like very much unless the emergancy gets a run. Zedstar is favourite and he does deserve to get his head in front considering only once in 9 hurdle starts has he finished out of the frame, but he has yet to win one. He was 3rd in the Australian Hurdle last time which was a top effort and there is every chance he could finally win in his first steeplechase start. I just don't want to take a short price about him though and he will be even shorter if the emergency doesn't get a run. A few of the others have bits and pieces of form which would give them some sort of chance, but nothing that makes me want to back them. Yulong Prince has run well enough in his last two hurdles and trialled well over fences recently so if he won it wouldn't surprise.   I will be backing Under The Bridge though if he gets a run. He was running very well in the BM120 Chase at Warrnambool until falling at the 2nd last. A repeat of the effort, until the fall, might well be good enough to win this. He ran well enough back on the flat 12 days ago as well. So hopefully he gets a run otherwise it will be a no bet race.   Under The Bridge 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes   Race 6 Like the other steeplechase race on the card this looks trappy as well. This is a class drop for Magnanimous Man, but he was still poor in the Brierley. He could still be good enough on his New Zealand form though. Hierarchal, Coleridge and Flying Pierro don't make much appeal. I'm going to back both Historic and Cheners as I think one of the two will win. Historic tried to keep with Elvison at Casterton, but not surprisingly couldn't late on. He won 3 times last season and he looks like getting an easy lead if he wants it. Cheners won here over hurdles last month and it was a good 1st chase start in the BM120 at Warrnambool. He finished 3rd and was closer to Elvison that day than Historic was at Casterton although it was a shorter trip. I'd probably just favour Historic, but will be backing both.   Historic 1pt @ 5/2 with William Hill Cheners 1pt @ 17/5 with Bet365

As usual we will be seeing horses that are well handicapped based on their pointing exploits (and possibly hunter chase as well) over the summer. This can often be more profitable than the hunter chases.    The first runs this afternoon at Cartmel in the 4.29. Oscar Wilde has already won off a mark off 109 when he was trained by Sue Smith, but he had lost his way which is why he ended up on today's mark of 91. He has been revitalised for a change of yard and going pointing though. He's had 3 runs this year and all of them make me think he is well ahead of his current mark. First of all he beat Takethepunishment by 5L who is a hunter chase winner and ran well when 3rd at Perth earlier in the month. He was then beaten 5L by Blazing Tom and I obviously don't need to tell you what he's done. His last start saw him just beat a horse who has won every other start he has completed this season (he missed a marker once) so that form also looks rock solid. Obviously, there is a slight concern he might underperform back under rules, but on his pointing form he's got at least a stone in hand of the handicapper.    It doesn't look a strong, but there are a couple of dangers. James Moffatt trains very close to the course and not surprisingly targets the track so you have to respect Rapid Flight who he got from Nicky Henderson. He didn't show much over fences for him, but there was promise in his first start for Moffatt over hurdles at Ayr earlier in the month and no doubt that was a pipe opener for running here. It's hard to think he has as much in hand as Oscar Wilde though.   Tico Times is trained by another trainer who does well here and he ran his best race for a long time when 2nd at Perth earlier this month so he could easily build on that, whilst last year's winner Mah Mate Bob won this off a mark of 101 last year and is off just 88 now. He's not run too badly the last twice so could go well again.   Ultimately though I struggle to think that any horse in this race has as much in hand over the handicapper as Oscar Wilde does and if he brings his pointing form to Cartmel then I don't see how he doesn't win this.    Oscar Wilde @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 13/8)

Good card at Stratford tonight and the feature looks a cracking contest. Here are my thoughts on the card.   5.35 Across The Line - Ran his best race since winning at Southwell in November off 120 at Cheltenham last time on his first start for Syd Hosie. He finished 3rd behind Solomon Grey that night when not really seeing out the trip and it was in a good form race in my view with Stratagem who won at Southwell on Tuesday behind him in 4th. The drop back in trip is going to suit and if he can repeat that effort then he's a contender here. Trainers horses seem to be in good form as well.   Capitaine - Passed the post in front last year only for his jockey to weigh in light with no explanation as to how it happened. I don't think the weight made any difference as he was always holding Creative Inerta and he would have won anyway. I think this is a stronger race this year, but then he did win a harder race at Leicester back in March which is the only other 2m hunter chase he can run in. Not surprisingly he didn't stay 2m4f at Kempton last time where he didn't help his cause by being very keen. He has a great chance of making up for last year's disappointment and no doubt this race has been the target.   Rewritetherules - Did finish well in front of Capitaine at Kempton, but that's not a big surprise as he stays better than that one and I think the form can be reversed over this trip. He was 3rd at Cheltenham behind Envoye Special last time, but was quite well beaten in the end.   Azzuri - Landed a Listed Race at Ayr over 2m back in April 2019 which was his high point. He had a couple of good place runs when jump racing returned in summer 2020, but after that he lost his way and dropped massively down the handicap and he eventually finished 2nd a couple off times just over a year ago off marks of 116 and 118. He has thrived for going pointing though winning 4 times including a couple over 3m which wouldn't be his best trip. He's been clocking good time figures and I expect him to make the running which tends to be a plus round here. The problem here though is Longhouse Sale and Capitaine also like to make the running so we could see a hot pace here and that might just set it up for a closer. Tristan Durrell takes over from the novice riders who have been riding him in points and as much as he will have to improve on what he showed under rules the last time he ran, he clearly has regained his confidence.   Demain Des L'aube - A really interesting runner as he has been running in races where has hasn't been staying all season, but he's been running in really good races. He ran really well behind Latenightpass at Charm Park in March until his stamina gave out and he then travelled really well into contention at Carlisle until he again failed to see out the trip. I put him up at a massive price at Aintree where I thought he ran which great credit until fading back into 11th late on. I'm slightly concerned that this might be too sharp a test for him, but I think he has shown there is still an engine inside and this test is certainly going to be more suitable than any he has faced so far this season and he's a contender for me.   Frankie Rapper - Not run since January 2019 and even his form from then wouldn't be good enough to win this. It also all came over further.   Longhouse Sale - Clearly doesn't stay 3m in points and he won his only race over 2m4f at Kimble on Easter Saturday. He was only beaten a neck when 3rd off 137 at Uttoxeter last June over 2m so that run would give him a chance here. He certainly has a chance, but I prefer others.   Sparkleandshine - Not shown a great deal in either hunter chase this year and not for me.   Verdict - I always thought I would be backing Capitaine for this to make amends for what happened last year, but for me the make up of the race doesn't really suit him. He's unlikely to get an easy lead like he did at Leicester and this race, on paper at least, looks much stronger than last year's race. So as much as he is a possible winner I am opposing. Azzuri and Longhouse Sale should be suited to this trip back under rules and are possible winners although I'm happy to look elsewhere especially as they could help set things up for a closer along with Capitaine. I'm not sure what is going on with Syd Hosie's horses, but clearly Cheltenham sure a massive improvement from them and then he had the winner at Newton Abbot on Wednesday. I think if Across The Line repeats the 3rd from Cheltenham then he is the most likely winner as that was a cracking run and the step down in trip looks set to suit. The other one I have to back is Demain Des L'aube. I hoped he would be the sort of price he is as for me his form figures mask the ability he does have. He could have a strong pace to aim at and I am hoping that he will be capable of picking up the pieces at a big price.   Across The Line 2pts @ 100/30 with everyone apart from William Hill who are 7/2 (take up to 9/4) Demain Des L'aube 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 8/1)   6.05  Caid Du Berlais - Had a great 2nd career as a pointer/hunter chaser including winning the big one at Punchestown twice. Looked good in two hunter chase wins last year before finding a 3rd Punchestown bid too much for him. This season he has kept to pointing and he clearly still has a lot of ability even at the age of 13 having won all 3. His best win was probably at Ston Easton in March when Dandy Dan would have finished 2nd to him if he hadn't unseated at 2 out.    Fumet D'oudairies - 2nd in the John Corbet Cup to Vaucelet last season where he didn't really stay and this trip looks ideal for him. This season he's 3/3 in points including beating hunter chase winner Normofthenorth in January. That means he is now 7/8 in points. He ran in the big one at Cheltenham in March and just found things happening way too quickly for him and he never threatened, but he proved his well being when winning at Kimble on Easter Saturday last time.   Igor - Another one to win on Easter Saturday as he landed the Lady Dudley Cup in good style at Chaddesley Corbett. That wasn't much of a contest though this year and for me he has a little bit to find with the other two.   Verdict - I think Caid Du Berlais is the most likely winner, but for me the price is short enough as Fumet D'oudairies is a good horse and will make it tough for him so its a no bet race.   6.35 Ask D'man - Clearly got to respect anything David Christie sends over and he landed this race last year with Vaucelet. He won a maiden hunter chase at Clonmel back in January over 2m4f and he jumped out to his left so going this way round looks the way to go with him, but he just outclassed them there. He then went to Naas in the race Billaway won and he stopped very quickly that day after making the running. He was then beaten a neck over 2m4f at Down Royal, before a well beaten 3rd at Tramore behind Good Bye Sam when stepping back up in trip. A month ago he won a point cosily. The big issue to me is he doesn't look like he's going to stay this far as any time he's tried over 2m4f under rules he hasn't looked like he stays. Hopefully he will help bring the pace to the race though.   Blazing Tom - Had really found his form in points and after not jumping or travelling well he got going late on to win the Heart Of All England at Hexham. That suggests he will stay this trip, but this is a much harder contest and if he travels and jumps as badly as he did for most of the way at Hexham then he's really going to be on the back foot here. I'm also not sure he is good enough to win this anyway.   Getting Closer - A winning machine in points as he's won 8 from 15 and is 4 from 5 this season. He does have a fair bit to find on form though as they aren't strong contests he's been winning. He ran in 2 hunter chases last season finishing a well beaten 2nd to Dubai Quest at Fakenham and then a well beaten 3rd in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham where he looked a non-stayer so I'm not sure about the trip for him either.   Go Go Geronimo - Ran a huge personal best when finishing 2nd to Latnightfumble at Cheltenham especially as he helped set a fast pace. The fact that he fought all way after doing that meant he come out with huge credit. He has to have some sort of chance here and he should at least help set the pace, but his jockey could claim 7lbs at Cheltenham and he can't here which will have a negative impact on his chances.   Its On The Line - Looks a cracking but at just £8k as he's done really well for his new connections. He was 5th and 4th in his first two starts and then went straight into hunter chase company where he finished just behind Ask D'man at Tramore. He was given a bit of an educational ride and stayed on nicely to nearly get 3rd. Since then he has won a maiden hunter chase at Cork and a novice hunter chase at Tipperary 3 weeks ago. He just got up to lead late on in both and I certainly think the slow pace in the Tipperary contest didn't help as he is a horse who looks all about stamina and his pedigree backs that up. He's jumping still needs improvement , but then he's only had 5 starts so that should come. Last year in this race they went no pace, but there are 2 or 3 front runners here so hopefully it is run at a decent pace as that will help his chances and clearly stepping up in trip should bring about improvement as well.    Rebel Dawn Rising - A horse I like and I think the Leicester win is a strong piece of form. He then didn't run for nearly two months when pulling up in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham. Like Go Go Geronimo he helped set the pace, but for me he looked a non stayer. Maybe he needed the race after a bit of a break and his trainer does do well at this meeting, but I'm just not sure he's going to stay well enough to win this as much as I do think he has the ability.   Latenightfumble - Gina got off her at Cheltenham and said that she could be even better than Latenightpass which is some statement. She looked like she would win easily than she did that night as she cruised into contention, but the 2nd really made her pull out all the stops. That is clearly the best form in the race and she must have a great chance of following up especially as she clearly stays well.   Verdict - A fascinating John Corbet Cup. They are joint favs and to be honest I do think one of Latenightfumble or Its On The Line will win. I was hoping I might be able to back them both, but that clearly isn't possible at the prices they are so I am going to side with the Irish horse. He's clearly progressing very nicely and should really relish the step up in trip. His trainer is one of the shrewdest around and he wouldn't be sending him over if he didn't think he could win. I just wonder if that Cheltenham run might have left a mark where Latenightfumble is concerned and he's been on the go all season so in the back of my mind it could be a race too much for him and that's why I'm going with Its On The Line. If Rebel Dawn Rising stays then he would be the main danger to those two.   Its On The Line 2pts @ 9/4 with Skybet, William Hill, Coral and BetVictor (take up to 15/8)   7.05 Bob And Co - It was mentioned that he was going to go to France for the big meeting at Auteuil last weekend, but instead he is bidding to go one better than he did in this race last year. He certainly comes here a fresher horse this time around as he's only been seen finishing 2nd to Cousin Pascal at Haydock and then falling at the 9th at Cheltenham. He's only been entered once since when put in the same race he won at Hexham last year so its hard to know if he had a setback or they have just decided to wait for this. There wasn't much wrong with his run in this last year and he had a really tough race at Punchestown so I do get a feeling he was a bit flat after that. Law Of Gold beat him by just 5½L, but I think he will reverse the form this time around. There was so much confidence about him going into Cheltenham that there is no reason to think that he isn't still good enough to win this.   Dandy Dan - He gave the impression that he was getting better with every start in points this season as he gave his young jockey Lauren Keen-Hawkins experience. You may remember that I was wondering about her ability as it was a very soft unseat behind Caid Du Berlais at Ston Easton, but she didn't half prove me wrong at Cheltenham as I thought she gave him a fantastic ride to beat Caryto Des Brosses. There certainly wasn't any fluke about the performance either as he jumped and travelled well and really powered away from the 2nd up the hill. After the race I said that he was good enough to come here and whilst I wasn't necessarily thinking the likes of Bob And Co and Vaucelet would turn up I still think he has a fantastic chance of following up.   Dieu Vivant - Just can't see how he gets involved at all as his form is a league below the best of these.   Downtown Getaway - Has beaten Just Cause easily at Kelso and last week ay Huntingdon, but Just Cause would get lapped by a few of these if running in this and the rest of his form wouldn't be good enough to win either. I'd also have him as a doubtful stayer, but he does have James King on top and obviously he does come here full of confidence.   Law Of Gold - A good winner of this race last year and given he also won the John Corbet Cup I did think he had the potential to be a multiple winner of this race, but on everything he has done this year I just can't back him. Maybe coming back to Stratford will perk him up, but he has looked really lazy all season and has barely travelled or jumped well. That was especially true at Cheltenham last time in the 4m race and yet he still came to the last looking like he was going to win. The fact he didn't said plenty about his attitude for me as I think he just didn't want to go past. If he travels and jumps like he has done the rest of the season then I just don't see how he is going to be able to get himself involved in the business end of the race. I have watched last year's race back and it was like watching a completely different horse. If that Law Of Gold turns up he's a player, but if the one we have seen this season turns up I just can't see how he wins this. The cheekpieces that went on at Cheltenham come off here.   Le Breuil - Got a deserved hunter chase success at Huntingdon over just under 4m 3 weeks ago and that came on the back of a good 4th at Aintree in the Foxhunters' where he was shafted by the standing start and then just plugged on over a trip that would have been short enough for him. I can see him running a solid race here because he has done that all season, but I'm not sure I can see him actually winning it.   Not That Fuisse - Deservedly beat Law Of Gold at Fakenham last time and that was him landing a hat-trick after beating Peacocks Secret over the same course and distance on Gold Cup day and in between just getting up to beat Stratagem at Warwick. He's had a good season and he's been beating hunter chase winners, but there is a big question mark over his stamina for me and I'm not sure he wants to go this far. If he does stay though then he could well be involved in the finish.   Solomon Grey - Has got better with every start this season and was impressive in his wins at Ludlow and Cheltenham the last twice. I think the form of that Cheltenham race is strong and gives him a chance of being placed, but he's unproven over this far and I just wonder if the trip in this class of race is going to be too much for him. He might have been better off in the handicap race, but I can see why connections are rolling the dice.   Vaucelet - Did well to win the John Corbet Cup last year so we know this course and distance suits although it was a funny race where they went no gallop. He was a potential Cheltenham runner though after winning his first two races of the season in good style, but he then disappointed at Down Royal on Boxing Day. They gave him a break after that and he returned a couple of months ago to land a point easily and then was especially impressive over Easter at Fairyhouse when bolting up from the useful Aloneamongmillions. He then went to Punchestown and pushed Billaway close, but made a bad mistake at the last which cost him any chance of winning the race. It's hard to be certain about who would have won if he didn't make the error, but I thought Billaway still would have won. Clearly a big player on those efforts.   West Approach - Going to be outclassed in this.   Verdict - It looks a strong renewal of the Stratford Foxhunters and it is easy to see why Vaucelet is favourite as he still looks to be progressing nicely and we know course and distance isn't an issue. He does look on the short side to me though and I'm going to look elsewhere. It is no surprise that Law Of Gold has been backed as the pointing experts love the horse, but whilst a return to Stratford might perk him up I just can't have him on how he's been running this year. I want Bob And Co onside because on last year's form he's arguably a better horse than Vaucelet, but clearly there is the unknown about if he is still up to that sort of ability. For me that is factored into the price though. The other one I am keen to be with is Dandy Dan who I thought ran a huge race at Cheltenham under a very good ride. We know he stays and the Cheltenham win gave him every right to target this and I think he could well be good enough to win.   Bob And Co 1pt @ 9/2 with everyone apart from William Hill who are 5/1 (take up to 3/1) Dandy Dan 1.5pts e/w @ 13/2 with William Hill (Bet365 are 7/1 and take up to 5/1)   7.35 Cat Tiger - For the 2nd year running ran a cracker in the Aintree Foxhunters' when finishing 2nd to Latenightpass having been 3rd last year. That was his first hunter chase of the season as he had been running in handicaps and did win off 136 at Ascot in January. He was beaten at 8/15 at Southwell a year ago after he ran at Aintree which has to be in the back of your mind and 12-9 is obviously a huge weight to carry. With jockey's claims he is giving over a stone to all which is some task although he clearly could be up to it as we know he has won off this sort of mark in a handicap.   Marracudja - Thought he ran very well on hunter chase debut at Hereford when 3rd to Wagner in January and then he won Leicester's big hunter chase at the start of March in easy style. Never got involved at Aintree where he was always out the back, but he is better than that so whilst in theory he can't beat Cat Tiger on that run this is a very different race. Tristan Durrell's 3lbs off is a plus as well.   Clondaw Westie - Looked set to win this race last year until he ran down the last and gave Izzie no chance of staying in the saddle. It was a strange race as Monsieur Gibraltar and Alcala decided to set a blistering gallop for pretty much the final circuit and Izzie sat off them and was in the perfect place to pick up the pieces when those two ran out of steam. That effort came on the back of a great 4th in the Aintree Foxhunters' and a good 2nd in a strong race at Cheltenham. This year he was running another cracking race at Aintree until unseating Izzie at the Canal Turn and although he was only 5th at Cheltenham this year I still think that was a good run because I think it was a better race this year. The handicapper has actually dropped him 5lbs for that effort so he gets to run from a 5lbs lower mark this year compared to last.   Peacocks Secret - Took full advantage of Zamparelli setting a strong pace over course and distance last month and being the only one to run his race as the two market leaders both disappointed. He was 15L behind Marracudja at Leicester and even on these terms shouldn't reverse the form. At Cheltenham he was 9L behind Clondaw Westie when giving him 10lbs and including jockey claims he only has to give him a lb so in theory that does give him a chance of reversing the form, but he never really got involved in that race and does need to bounce back.   Zamparelli - Found things happening way too quickly for him in this race last year, but nearly took advantage of the stupid pace and Clondaw Westie's error as he finished 2nd to Keltus. Had a bit of a frustrating season this time around with 3 2nds on the bounce in a point at Larkhill and two hunter chases including the race here as mentioned above. It certainly took me by surprise that he set such a fast pace, but was essentially a sitting duck for Peacocks Secret. He then ran at Cheltenham and given he wouldn't have stayed I thought he ran a pretty good race despite ending up 55L behind Dandy Dan in 5th. He's 4lb lower than last year and his jockey is claiming 7lbs compared to 3lbs last year so you certainly couldn't rule him out.   I'm Wiser Now - Not sure how the handicapper hasn't dropped him more than just 2lbs in the handicap because he has been shocking in both hunter chases he has run in this season. Won twice here last season and a return to this venue is the only glimmer of hope you can give him as you couldn't possibly fancy him on what he's done this term.   Verdict - Cat Tiger could be up to this, but 12-9 is a big ask and this race has good horses in it so I'm going to take him on. Clondaw Westie is well handicapped compared to Cat Tiger based on last year's Aintree Foxhunters' and it wouldn't have been a big shock if he had got round this year that he would have been well handicapped with him again. The Cheltenham run was decent and a 5lb lower mark compared to last year means he could well make up for his wayward jump at the last. I can see why Zamparelli and Peacocks Secret have their fans, but I think Marracudja is overpriced now. He looked good at Herford and Leicester and you can always forgive a poor run over the National fences. On Leicester form he has the beating of Peacocks Secret and yet is a bigger price.   Clondaw Westie 1.5pts @ 4/1 with everyone  (take up to 3/1) Marracudja 0.5pt @ 11/2 with everyone apart from William Hill who are 6/1 (take up to 9/2)   8.05 Waking up to see that Fier Jaguen and Feuille De Lune have both come out is hardly ideal and obviously I have had to rewrite the preview this morning. I thought Luke Harvey's Spanish Jump was going to be a bet without the front two in the betting and so without them in the race he obviously becomes the bet. He has run 4 times this season and won his maiden and restricted very impressively on his 2nd and 4th starts. He was 2nd to a horse at Charing who went on to win 4 more times this season and his 2nd last time at Chaddesley Corbett on Easter Saturday was behind a good horse who has won 7 of his last 8 starts. Oval Street looks to be his main rival and he's had a good season winning 3 times from 5 starts, but to me they have come in weaker races so his form doesn't look as strong. Both can front run so hopefully it won't be a tactical affair and Spanish Jump does have James King on top   Spanish Jump 2pts @ 11/10 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 10/11)   8.40 Mystic Man - Pulled up on his debut over here at Charing in December and then had a long break before winning at Barbury over 2m3f last month. It wasn't much of a contest and he was left clear at 3 out when the horse just in front of him fell. He then weakened very quickly over 3m when pulling up last time. Suspect this test will suit.   Tufton Avenue - Didn't have the pace to go with the front 4 at Aintree, but if anything this looks a weaker contest so he certainly has a chance.   Churchman - Got tapped for toe when making his debut in a point bumper at Sandon over Easter, but then stayed on to finish 2nd to Good Boy. The winner and the 3rd both ran at Aintree and both were well beaten so did nothing whatsoever for the form.   Patanita - Looked very impressive when winning a point bumper at Maisemore on debut. They seemed to go a solid enough pace as well so the form should be reliable. He won by a couple of lengths but pretty much did it on the bridle so was value for more than the winning margin.   Presenting Miranda - Landed a point bumper on debut at Larkhill in December, but the form doesn't look that strong and the winning time was slower than the other division. Things haven't really gone right over fences since as she pulled up in heavy ground over 3m on her next run. Last month she ran twice first of all she got cannoned into by a loose horse just before the 9th fence and Alice was forced out of the saddle in a very unfortunate incident. Easter Saturday she went to Dingley and finished 2nd in a very weak maiden over 2m4f.   Verdict - I have had some rotten luck in this race over the years with horses slipping up and getting hampered so I am due a result and to me if Patanita repeats his Maisemore performance then he ought to win this. It was an impressive performance and he was well fancied beforehand. Presenting Miranda and Mystic Man look the two dangers.   Patanita 2pts @ 5/4 with everyone apart from Bet365 (take up to 10/11) 

For quite a while I thought Wrexham would win the play-offs given how good they were looking and that they were unlikely to beat Stockport and if they had the final at the Racecourse then I would probably back them even though they are odds on. I do think they can beat Notts County or Grimsby at home although it does look to be the harder side of the draw, but away from the Racecourse they look vulnerable. I was waiting to write the preview until after the FA Trophy Final today to see how they would get on at Wembley and they were OK, but no more than that. Maybe the disappointment of losing this will drive them on to make sure they get something out of the season, but on consecutive weekends they have now lost the title whilst being well beaten by Dagenham and lost the FA Trophy Final. Clearly they have the best squad and they deserve to be favourites, but they are too short for me and so I will be looking to the other half of the draw for the winners.
  As I mention below I think Halifax will win on Tuesday, but even if Chesterfield do get through I think Solihull can beat either of them at home and thus Solihull are the bets for me at 3/1. I wasn't sure about Ardley coming as manager at the start of the season because I thought he under performed at Notts County, but fair play to him as he has managed to finish above his old club in the table. Almost unnoticed they sneaked into 3rd place and they were only 1 point behind Wrexham at the end. If we just used the last 15 games they would have finished top of the table 1 point in front of Wrexham and Stockport. They also played both those sides over Easter away and got a deserved point at Wrexham whilst only going down to a 90th minute goal at Stockport. They have been really good in the last few games of the season and I think they have it in them to beat whoever they end up facing (likely Wrexham) at the Olympic Stadium in a couple of weeks time.    Halifax v Chesterfield As mentioned above I don't have an opinion on tomorrow's game, but I certainly do in Tuesday night's match as Halifax do look a fantastic bet. They won 17 out of 22 games at the Shay during the season and took an impressive 53 points in the process. They aren't prolific in front of goal, but they find a way to win games especially at home. Chesterfield have been woeful since Paul Cook took over as manager as they have gone from title contenders to barely making the play-offs. I know injuries have played a part especially to Tshimanga, but even so Cook has looked clueless and they don't even deserve to be in the play-offs. Tshimanga has already been ruled out of playing a part in them so he can't even rescue them. The one thing I will say is when they played this fixture on Easter Monday and Halifax won 2-0 I did think Chesterfield played quite well, but that is the only game that I have seen them play well since Rowe left. It has become a bit of a free hit for Chesterfield so maybe they might perform better, but on everything we have seen Halifax look a great bet at 6/4 as they really ought to be shorter.   Solihull to win promotion 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365, Betfred and BetVictor (take up to 9/4) Halifax 3pts @ 6/4 with Bet365 (take up to 11/10)

A very good Sunday last week with Onset and Elvision both winning for a decent profit and both run tomorrow morning at Sandown where we have the Australian Steeplechase and Australian Hurdle. We also have the hurdling debut of Constantinople.    Race 1 We start with the Australian Steeplechase and the Wilde pair of Brittanicus and Elvison head the betting. Elvison obviously did us a great turn last week at Casterton and what a jumping performance he put in over the hedges. He never looked in any danger of getting beaten and given the small field I'm not really surprised connections have decided to run him again on the 7 day back up. His stablemate ran a hell of a race in the Brieley to just be beaten by another one from the yard in Vanguard. I have concerns about both of them though. This is a much better race than the one Elvision won last week and although he's clearly improving he was beaten by Once Were Lost at Warrnambool. I also wonder if the two of them might end up cutting each others throats up front. I guess they will try not to do that, but Elvison clearly likes front running and Brittanicus can be keen and although he hasn't always front run he did at Warrnambool. I'm also not sure Brittanicus will stay the trip so as much as either winning wouldn't surprise I do think there could be value in looking elsewhere.   Bit Of Lad won this 2 years ago, but he didn't run great in the Brierly even allowing for the fact that he blew the start. Pateman told the stewards he needs a softer surface which he wont get here. Once Were Lost got the better of Elvison at Warrnambool and maybe this extra trip will help, but he carried 66kg compared to the 2nd carrying 71kg and here Elvison only has to give him 1kg so really the form ought to be reversed. Quite why Coleridge is as short as he is I don't know because he was miles behind Elvison last week.   I put up Getting Leggie in the Grand Annual and I am going to put him up again here because he just shouldn't be the outsider. I thought he ran a cracking race at Warrnambool as he wasn't beaten far in 4th and I think the trip in the very testing ground 2nd up was just a bit too much for him. 1st up he was 1 place in front of Britannicus at Pakenham when they were 3rd and 4th and I think this trip will suit Getting Leggie better than Britannicus. He has never won on a heavy track so this better ground should be ideal and he's got a really solid chance for me. He's been nibbled in the betting which doesn't surprise me.   Getting Leggie 1pt @ 9/1 with everyone   Race 4 Constantinople doesn't need too many introductions I am sure given his high profile form for Aiden O'Brien. He went off favourite for a Caulfield Cup and was well fancied for a Melbourne Cup. That was back in 2019 where you also have to go back to for his last win which came in a Group 3 at the Curragh in May that year. His only other win was a Thurles maiden win the year before. He's been running in good races and has run some good races especially of late where he has been 2nd in the Terang Cup last month and then 3rd in the Warrnambool Cup where he overraced. I've watched his two hurdle trials and he isn't a great jumper it has to be said. He has also looked keen in them. He could well outclass his rivals here and the fact he's likely to make mistakes might not stop him, but on the other side I do wonder if he is keen again that he might not stay the trip. Runaway was behind him in 3rd in the trial last time, he's likely to make the running and they might take each other on.   So can anything beat Constantinople? I thought Blandford Lad did very well in the Champion Novice at Warrnambool to finish 2nd and although he came wide the better ground was certainly on the outside so it helped the first 4 home that day. He's certainly a chance here though as he won his maiden well at Pakenham as well. I thought Hey Happy did it well at Casterton last week as he beat the other market leader and they pulled well clear of everything else. This is tougher, but he should go well. Pueblo was disappointing in the Champion Novice, but if he returns to the Pakenham maiden win form then he has claims. Onset won at a double figure price for us last week and she bolted up. As I mentioned ahead of that she was on the wrong part of the track in the Champion Novice and ran a hell of a race to finish so close. She has clearly improved, but is it enough to beat Constantinople only getting 0.5kg from him?   All the other leading fancies have to give Constantinople weight as he has 66.5kg to carry whereas Runaway has 71kg, Blandford Lad 69, Hey Happy 68.5 and Pueblo 68. So as much as his jumping doesn't impress me and there are stamina doubts, I actually think he will get away with it against this field at these weights as he just has a class edge on the rest of them so I actually do think he offers a bit of value. Onset might be the one to chase him home.   Constantinople 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365   Race 5 No horse has won back-to-back Australian Hurdles' since The Shu in 95 and 96 and only 3 others have done it in the history of the race which was first run in 1892. Saunter Boy carried 66.5kg last year to win this and has to carry 71kg this time around, but I think he can do it. He's already picked up 2 decent pots this season at Pakenham and Warrnambool and although Out And Dreaming has a chance of reversing form at the weights I don't think he will although he does look the main danger to me. Saunter Boy is just so tough and really has that will to win. Saunter Boy's high rating means the whole field aren't carrying the true weights that they should which helps his chances. El Diez won the Champion Novice and had Brungle Bertie and Devon Miss in behind and I think Brungle Bertie can do the best of that trio, but Saunter Boy can make history and land back-to-back victories in this historic race.   Saunter Boy 2pts @ 13/10 @ Bet365

The last at Aintree tonight is a point to point bumper. Like the Exeter one last month this race is specifically for horses who have run in a point this season. On paper it doesn't look a strong contest.   Broomfields Cave - Didn't show too much in Ireland, but won both starts since coming over here. Was very well backed on his first start where he was spooked at the first by a loose dog (sadly no video footage) and he nearly unseated. He beat 2 horses there and had 3 in the race he won by 30L at Chilfrome last time. He beat nothing there though and I'm pretty neutral about his chances as he might be good enough, but at the same time I prefer others in the race.   Just Four Fame - Found himself outpaced at Chaddesley Corbett last month over just over 2m3f and on debut he probably would have been 4th if the horse who was going to win didn't have their saddle slip on the run in and if My Virtue hadn't slipped round the bend. Good jockey, but not sure he has the pace for this.   Santos Blue - Was put in at some fancy prices last night which not surprisingly were taken. On debut he won a 3 runner point to point bumper and he then went to Larkhill over 2m4f where he was closing when falling at 2 out. The winner of that race has been sold for £30k since. He went back to Larkhill for his next start but unseated at the 3rd when badly hampered. A week later he went to Horseheath where he was a well beaten 2nd, but the winner was very impressive and has been sold for £30k. There were only 3 finishers and he was 30L in front of the other one who has won twice since. James King rode him in hist first 3 starts and does so again tonight.   Tufton Avenue - Won a match at Paxford where not surprisingly the time was very slow. Quickened away well but the other one was a well beaten 5th on debut so I doubt he achieved much. Off course on the flipside we don't know how good he might be, but under priced at the moment for me. Has already tried to be sold but didn't reach his reserve of £50k although that seemed staggering high for a horse winning a match.   Fascinating Rhythm - Would have been in front of Macavity at Charm Park on his 2nd start but for unseating 2 out and he was still in with a chance of winning. Found himself outpaced in a point to point bumper on his debut when a 3L 3rd although the winner is now with Gordon Elliott. Was beaten a short head over 3m and then won by 17L over the same course and distance. To me he looks more of a stayer and he might find this test too sharp, but I do like his form certainly compared to most of these.   Good Boy - He was an easy winner of a point to point bumper at Sandon a month ago on debut where he had Sugar Pi 17L back in 3rd. Not sure the form is overly strong, but he looked green and there should be more to come. The bigger concern is Gina chooses to rides the stablemate.   Intrepide Sud - And here is said stablemate who finished alone at Garthorpe in a 2m4f maiden although he would have won anyway. He jumped novicey and was clearly still green as he flashed his tail on the run in. On the face of it I was more impressed with Good Boy, but Gina would know better than me and so you have to say he is the most likely winner out of the two. Has already been tried to be sold and went through the ring at £24k unsold.    Macavity - Recorded a slow time last time especially given he got the 14lbs allowance for his age. A couple of weeks before he won a weak race where the favourite pulled up after the rider lost their irons and the 2nd has been beaten since. On debut he was beaten over 40L and as mentioned above would have been beaten by Fascinating Rhythm. I think backers have to hope that a 2m1f bumper suits him better than Fascinating Rhythm otherwise I can't see that form being reversed.   Sugar Pi - Stuffed in his first two point bumpers and can't see any reason why he would reverse form with Good Boy from last time.   My Virtue - Was last and well beaten in a point bumper on debut at Bangor in March, but that did come on very testing ground and she ran much better on her next two starts. She was bang in contention at Maisemore when clipping heels coming round the bend and she would have likely been well clear of Just Four Fame. Had an easy task to shed her maiden tag at Eyton last time in a match and if the ground was to blame for the Bangor run then I think her chance is better than the odds suggest.   Verdict - I don't think this is a particular strong renewal of this race on paper and it looks fairly wide open. Part of the problem is a few of these have been running and winning in small fields so it's hard to judge how much ability they actually have. I thought Good Boy won well on debut, but Gina has chosen Intrepide Sud over him and it would be surprising if she got it wrong, but they both look to have a chance. I think Fascinating Rhythm has the best form in the race, but it is a worry that he was outpaced in a bumper on debut and he looks more of a stayer. The one I like the most is Santos Blue who has managed to win a 2m flat race (albeit only had 2 rivals) and I think he has come up against good horses in the 2 maidens he got the furthest in. There is a good chance that at Horseheath he just didn't stay up the hill as well as the winner which is why he was beaten so far, so this test should be more suitable.    To be honest apart from Sugar Pi and Just Four Fame you could understand why one of the others could win or more have enough ability to win, but I do think the complete outsider My Virtue is overpriced at 50/1. She has a good jockey claiming 3lbs and if she hadn't run at Bangor or had completed at Maisemore then there is no way she would be priced up anywhere near those odds. I have to have a small bet on her as well.   Santos Blue 1pt @ 7/1 with most bookies (take up to 5/1) My Virtue 0.25pts e/w @ 50/1 with everyone (take up to 20/1)

My Australian horse Beneficio is back out tomorrow morning at Sandown in Race 4 (5.10am) and I have had a good look at the race. I think there are 5 including her who have a winning chance.
Sniper Legend - A course and distance winner in January who was then spelled for a few weeks and he returned with a fast finishing 2nd at Cranbourne last time. Should go well if building on that here.
Super Thief - Won at Swan Hill and then landed a BM64 (same level as this) at Sale in the September and October last year. He then went to Flemington on Melbourne Cup day and ran well enough to finish 5th of 8. He then went to Moonee Valley when disappointing, but suffered a small laceration so you could ignore that effort for me. He jumps quite well so should be fairly handy and he has had a couple of jump outs in preparation for this.
Tycoon Humma - Course and Distance winner at this level in February and ran well at Moonee Valley in March when she had a poor draw when finishing 4th. She was disappointing at Flemington last time, but that was at BM78 level and I wonder if she didn't truly stay the 1100m. If she bounces back from that then she can go well here.
Burnum - Looked good when winning at Mornington a year ago but then picked up an injury. Has had a couple of jump outs in preparation for this and could be anything although the fact she is favourite is more on potential for me.
Beneficio - Ran a huge race at Caulfield to finish 2nd when getting run down late on by the winner who had very useful form. Beneficio wasn't running from out of the handicap and she was only getting 0.5kg from the winner when it should have been 4kg. As usual she was so fast away from the start and having looked at the field I think she will lead them up quite easily here. Teluici has front run the last twice, but she doesn't look to have as much speed from the gate as Beneficio has. She's drawn in the middle so should be able to get across to the rail OK. The 3rd at Caulfield has finished 3rd in a Listed Race since so that is a boost to the form. To me it looks like the drop down to 1000m should be ideal for her given how much speed she has and she has handled a bit of cut in the ground before so the Soft track shouldn't be an issue. It was an open handicap she ran in at Caulfield so this BM64 should be easier for her and although I don't know much about the jockey she comes highly recommended and she claims 2kg. The trainer reports that she has done extremely well since the run and he expects her to be super competitive in this race. I think she will be hard to run down and has a great chance of winning although at 5/1 I think she is a great e/w bet because I really would be surprised if she is out of the first 3.
As for the others I do think Tycoon Humma is over the odds and take out the Flemington run she would be shorter in the betting so I will have a little on her e/w. I think the other main danger is Super Thief given the good run at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day.
Beneficio e/w @ 5/1 with William Hill and Betfred
Tycoon Humma e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill and Bet365

Really looking forward to the next 3 days as it is the Warrnambool Carnival which sees some cracking jumping action and probably the biggest race in the jumps calendar, the Grand Annual on Thursday. Day 1 sees the maiden hurdle divided 3 times and the Brierly Steeplechase which will see some of the horses run in it and then back up in the Grand Annual on Thursday.
Race 1 Those that have been over hurdles already don't set that tough a standard for the newcomers to overcome. Zouy's Comet ran well from the front at Pakenham last month on debut and kept trying although they finished in a bit of a heap so not sure about the strength on the form. I liked the way Lord Pierro trialled over hurdles last week as he jumped well on the whole so he could go well, but I do think the favourite Portland Jimmy will be hard to beat. He is the best on the flat out of these and landed the Donald Cup last year. I like the fact he's had plenty of hurdle practice having had 5 trials and he looked an experienced jumper in his trial here last week. This race has no doubt been the target and he's the one for me here.   Portland Jimmy 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365   Race 2 Count Zero is the favourite here which is down to the fact he's been in good form on the flat having won a couple of starts ago. I watched his last hurdles trial and although I wouldn't read much into the fact he was well beaten I wasn't overly impressed with it. Gravistas is an ex Mark Johnson who won at Newmarket on his last start over here which is his only win. I think he has a chance here as he seems to jump well and it could be that hurdles bring out some improvement from what he's been doing on the level of late. There was very little between Zedstar and Joshua Reynolds at Pakenham last month, but I was a bit disappointed with the latter who didn't seem to progress from his first up 2nd. Zedstar meanwhile is frustrating, but surely a maiden is going to come his way at some point and with Pateman on top here it could well be this one. Mighty Oasis was 2nd in a maiden hurdle last year and he's been doing OK on the flat of late so might also run well.   Zedstar 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 Gravistas 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365   Race 3 The former Irish trained Killourney is the favourite here on his hurdling debut and he does look the most likely winner. He's been running well in good races on the flat and his recent hurdle trail was decent. Rider In The Snow has also been running well on the flat, but I wasn't so impressed with his hurdle trial last time. This is probably the weakest of the 3 hurdles, but I just can't understand the price of Lady Fiorente. She didn't show a great deal on hurdles debut at Hamilton at huge odds and not surprisingly was a big price at Pakenham last time, but she ran really well to finish 2nd and was well clear of Zedstar and Joshua Reynolds. Maybe she wont repeat that effort, but if she does she has cracking place claims at the very least here and quite simply she shouldn't be the price she is.   Killourney 3pts @ 5/6 with Betfred, Paddy Power and Betfair Lady Fiorente 0.5pts e/w @ 50/1 with Betfred and Ladbrokes   Race 6 The feature race on Day 1 and as much I wouldn't rule out last year's 2nd Bit Of A Lad completely I do think the winner will come from either Vanguard or Valac. Both horses were impressive last time with Vanguard winning at Hamilton and Valac at Pakenham on his first start over fences and Valac is the one I am going to go with. I thought it was just about as good a jumps debut as you would wish to see at Pakenham and there was more depth to that race in my view. The winning margin was 0.2L, but his jockey eased up on him late on and he was value for much more than the winning margin. Britannicus did win here two starts back, but he was disappointing at Pakenham last time especially as he looked the winner at one stage.   Valac 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365   

Stockport v Boreham Wood This game is on BT Sport at 5.20pm and I think the home side can cover the handicap. The top 3 all lost last week and clearly nerves are creeping in, but I think back at home Stockport can get back to winning ways. I know Boreham Wood beat Bromley when I opposed them last week, but Bromley are in a bad way at the moment themselves and Wood went and lost to Southend on Tuesday night. Stockport have a big class edge for me at the moment and they appeal on the -1 handicap.   Bath City v Tonbridge Angels Bath have had a disappointing season, but they are ending it quite strongly and the only teams to have beaten them at home in the last 9 home games are Dorking and Ebbsfleet. Tonbridge haven't won in 7 away games now and the home side look value.   Gloucester v Chorley It didn't really happen for Gloucester last week although going down to 10 men didn't help. They do seem to be playing much better at home at the moment and there are quite a few players who will be looking to be offered deals at the end of the season. What will also be playing on some of the players minds is the fact Chorley won the reverse game 9-0 and I think they will be wanting to right that wrong. Chorley aren't convincing at the moment and I think the home side look value here.   Spennymoor v Hereford Two sides who still have an outside chance of reaching the play-offs but I certainly think the home side are playing the better at the moment. Hereford have really struggled on the road of late and weren't great at Gloucester on Easter Monday so the home side look a big price to me.   Stockport -1 @ 1pt @ 13/10 with Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power and BetVictor Bath City 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill and Coral (take up to 11/10) Gloucester City 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Spennymoor 1pt @ 6/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 11/10)

Some strong fancies on the card so let's hope a profit is made. Every horse has been covered.   4.40 Rewritetherules - Ran his best race for his new owner/trainer/rider last time at Kempton when a 6L 2nd to Gesskille, but he didn't exactly look in need of a horse that wanted dropping back down in trip to 2m. That run last time though did suggest he still had the ability to win a race like this.   Envious Editor - Had done most of his running over 2m when trained in Ireland so no real surprise that he has looked a bit of a non stayer in points. He's been a bit unlucky to bump into some good horses in the early part of the season as well because he would have finished 2nd to Feuille De Lune at Charing in December had he not unseated at the last and he was always going to struggle in deep ground at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas given the pace Fier Jaguen set that day. He then went to Ludlow and ran in the first hunter chase of the season and he's travelled really well into the race before running out of steam after a mistake at the 3rd last. After that run he had a wind op which I think has probably also helped him as there is every chance that is also why he wasn't finishing his races off. His first run after that was at Brafield where he actually found himself outpaced over 3m before staying on into 3rd. A couple of weeks later he finally won a restricted where it took the 2 runners over 8 minutes to finish. Easter Saturday saw him put in a very impressive performance at Sandon where he bolted up by 15L. That was over 2m5f and it wasn't a strong race by any means, but crucially for me he saw his race out really well which is why I think the wind op has helped him. I imagine this race will have been the target and he's a big player.   Envoye Special - Amazing how he's managed to win over 3m in points a couple of times this season as he looks a complete non-stayer in hunter chases. He even beat Sixteen Letters over 3m in December at Larkhill which is good form. His two hunter chase runs saw him go off way too quick in soft ground in the Welsh Foxhunter at Ffos Las and he duly failed to see out the trip. He took a keen hold at Stratford a month later, but was held up although the result was the same as he failed to stay again. After that he has bolted up in a Mixed Open at Trebuddon which is clearly a short track based on the winning time of 5.44. He was a really good 2nd in this last year to Fumet D'oudairies and he should be involved again. Not sure if James King has chosen to ride Envious Editor over him or not as Envious Editor is also owned by Cousin Pascal's owner.   Famoso - I thought there was a bit of promise in the Southwell run where he just didn't stay and he was exhausted at Wincanton last time when falling at the last where his jockey should have pulled him up before the fence. Drop to 2m should suit, but I'd be surprised if he was good enough to beat at least a couple of this.   Fan Club Aulmes - Apart from when pulling up at Charm Park last month he has had a very good season winning twice and finishing a close 2nd to Molineaux at Larkhill in February and that horse has won plenty this season. There is definitely some substance to his form and he won over 2m4f last season to give some hope the 2m trip should be fine. Has the very good Alice Stevens in the saddle and he certainly isn't out of this.   Sparkleandshine - His only win under rules came back in 2018 over 2m so this drop down in trip could well suit, but the bigger issue could be if he is good enough. He was a good 2nd off 112 over 2m3f at Stratford last June, but back there in a hunter chase last month he never really got involved. He had been leading in his two points this season before not staying over 3m so maybe not being able to front run didn't help. He might not get the chance to do it here either and he was 18L behind Envoye Special that day. He wouldn't be a shock winner, but at the same time he doesn't make much appeal from a betting point of view.   Kostantina - Wasn't very good on the flat and was struggling to get competitive when going pointing until she suddenly went and won at Dingley over Easter. Made all that day and will find it much harder to make the running against this quality of opposition.   Verdict - Fan Club Aulmes certainly has a chance, but I think the winner will either be Envoye Special or Envious Editor. I have had to change this bit again as the prices this morning are very different to what they were last night. I was hoping to out up Envious Editor, but he went too short then this morning he has drifted out and it means he has become value again so he is the bet. Envoye Special who was the value last night has been backed this morning. For multi purposes I have permed the two of them up although the prices they are we can only really back one so it is Envious Editor.   Envious Editor 1pt @ 15/8 with William Hill and Betvictor (take up to 11/8)   5.15 Castle Trump - Jumping was an issue when he first ran over here in 2020 as he failed to get round in 3 runs. He missed last season, but has been making up for lost time this season having won 5 of his 6 starts. He's been winning impressively and the only disappointing run was when he was 3rd at Horseheath in January, but he then went on to beat the winner of that race in a match last month. He's clearly useful and progressing, but I'm not sure there is too much depth to what he has been beating.   Famous Clermont - Has shown quirks in the past having run out over hurdles last year and then idling badly when beaten by Marcle Ridge at Barbury in December and when Virak nearly caught him at Charlton Horethorne two starts back. He then went into a hunter chase at Exeter and he was really impressive and certainly wasn't stopping that day. Indirocco is a solid yardstick so to beat that horse by 8L in a canter was seriously impressive stuff. I do have a slight concern about the trip and you do have to worry slightly about him getting up the hill given his tendency to idle, but he has the best form in the race and sets a high standard.   Go Go Geronimo - Took a while to win a maiden, but has looked fairly progressive since winning one at Duncombe Park in February. The only time he's been beaten since he won was in heavy ground and whilst he has a bit to find on bare form at least he's heading in the right direction.   How To Get Away - Looked very good earlier in the season when beating Mammoth by 17L and then Clondaw Westie by 3L. The problem is he was beaten by Castle Trump (reversing form as mentioned above) and then Fier Jaguen last time. Clearly that is still good form, but with Rebel Dawn Rising also beating him last season he does look like the stables 2nd string.   Minimalistic - Was miles behind Famous Clermont in January and although he has progressed since then winning his last two, it does look like he might struggle to stay this trip let alone be good enough to reverse the form.   Rebel Dawn Rising - Was clearly progressing fast at the back end of last season when winning impressively at Garthorpe twice and then he bolted up on his seasonal return at Horsheath in February. He then made his hunter chase debut at Leicester and I think that race was a strong contest. He made the running at a fairly slow pace, but he stayed on really well to beat a good horse in Benefaktor and Sixteen Letters was back in 3rd so the form is rock solid for me. That was over 2m4f, but he has shown that he stays well also so I don't have to many concerns about the step up to this trip. I thought he jumped really well at Leicester which will also stand him in good stead here and he has to go on any shortlist.   Steel Express - Only got a BHA rating of 94 and although he has won a point this season he was 7L behind Minimalistic last time and shouldn't be good enough.   The Whistle Blower - Started the season with a couple of 3rd in maidens where he stayed on well in the first of them and finished tired in the 2nd of them. Then he went and won 3 on the bounce going through his grades in good style. He beat Every Minute who is a good horse two starts back at Brafield and then hacked up by 18L last time. Clearly progressing nicely although Every Minute is trained by Tom Ellis and they run Latenightfumble here which makes me think she is better than Every Minute so The Whistle Blower might well have to find more improvement to land this.   Voie Dans Voie - Been well beaten by How To Get Away and Castle Trump this season so shouldn't be good enough to land this.   Latenightfumble - As you might have guessed she is related to Latenightpass who actually won this race in 2019. She ran in a couple of point to point bumpers last season finishing 3rd at Aintree and then 2nd at Stratford where she looked every inch a stayer. This season she started of with a 2nd to Fier Jaguen at Chaddesley Corbett which was respectable return. She's then won 3 on the bounce in really good style although in the 2nd of those wins Fier Jaguen didn't run his race which is a shame as it would have given us something to rate the form on. She's clearly progressive and although on bare form she has a bit to find she has a leading chance.   Luscious Lilly - Looks to have little chance.   Sine Nomine - Another horse who looks very progressive and once she lost her maiden tag at Alnwick in January she has landed 4 on the bounce going through her grades. She didn't jump as well as she can last time, but her jumping has looked good before that and she hasn't really had to come off the bridle in any of her wins. She has to find more improvement again to land this, but she's certainly going the right way.   Verdict - There are plenty of 1s in the form of these horses and it can be tricky trying to work out who brings the strongest form to the race. It has to be said though that Famous Clermont sets a very high benchmark and I'm not sure any of these will match what he has shown he is capable of. I do worry about what he might find off the bridle up the hill, but he might well just have too much class for them. The problem is his price and at the moment he is around the right price so it is hard to put him up as a single bet. Rebel Dawn Rising looks the biggest danger as I loved the way he jumped at Leicester and I think he will stay this far. Out of those that have yet to run in a hunter chase I think Sine Nomine could be the main one so at this stage I will have small win bets on those two and see if we get a drift on Famous Clermont, but he will be the one I put in the multi bets.   Rebel Dawn Rising 0.5pts @ 9/2 with most bookies (take up to 7/2) Sine Nomine 0.5pts e/w @ 8/1 with Skybet, William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 6/1)   5.50 Fix Le Kap - Was a surprise 2nd in this last year given he wasn't coming into the contest in great form so to only lose by a neck to Trio For Rio was some effort especially as he came there looking like he was going to win on the run-in. He was then disappointing again in two runs pointing after that. This season he's finished a close 2nd a couple of times in small field points. If he runs like he did last year then he has a chance, but that run really does stick out like a sore thumb.   Hidden Charmer - He has won over 3m pointing including last time over Easter at Chaddesley Corbett, but he's never really struck me as a horse who really stays 3m and he has nearly 2f further to travel here. He was 3rd at Ludlow behind Pont Aven in February, but again he just looked like a non stayer.   I'm Wiser Now - 3rd in this race last year beaten 7L and he came into the race in much better form that he has so far this season as he had won a couple of hunter chases at Stratford. This year he was 3rd at Charing and then a very disappointing well beaten 5th at Leicester. He didn't jump well in this race last year as he jumped left handed and he may not have been in love with the track which is another worry.   Knockaderry Flyer - Was a shock winner of this back in 2017 after which he became one of the worst handicapped horses in training as he was rated 125 for winning a bad race. He's been kept busy this season having run 8 times already and has actually won 3 including his last two. He was a well beaten 5th in this last year though and I couldn't have him repeating his 2017 success.   Majestic Touch - Had 558 days off before making his debut for Alan Hill in March where he took a very keen hold before pulling up which wasn't a surprise as he'd never been 3m before. Last time at Kimble he finished last of 3 over 2m4f when looking outpaced. When he was running under rules before he also looked like he needed more of a stamina test so maybe now he's got the freshness out of the way he might stay better. If he was able to run up to his old rules form he wouldn't be out of this.   Moratorium - Had a really good start to the season when winning 3 on the bounce including beating Tel'Art by 1/2L at Larkhill. His trainer rode him in a hunter chase at Warwick when he ran well to finish 2nd to Reikers Island and he looked like he could do with a bit of stiffer test of stamina. He was given a bit of a break after that and finished 4th at Didmarton when again looking like it was a bit sharp for him. Last time he just got up to win a 3 runner race. His trainer could easily have ridden him or he could have used Nathan Green again, but Myles clearly wants the horse to have the best chance possible so he has gone and booked Will Biddick for the ride. I'd imagine they have been training him for this as well and he looks to have an obvious chance.   Over The Bridge - Still a maiden and only rated 50.   Tel'Art - I fancied him at Stratford last time because I thought he hadn't been given a great ride at Bangor in soft ground and then he tried to keep tabs with Famous Clermont at Exeter and paid for it late on so he was overtaken for 2nd place. He ended up going off favourite at Stratford, but I think he just found things happening all a bit too quick for him given the pace Zamparelli set. Also the over watering of the ground didn't help and that is another concern here, but given he got so close to Moratorium at Larkhill in January I think he has to be a leading contender and just maybe he will finally get his ideal conditions.   Trio For Rio - Last year's winner and he just held on despite jumping out to his left throughout which is something I expect him to do again here. He won a 3 runner race at the start of the season and then was 3rd at Larkhill behind Maitree Express, but it was probably disappointing he didn't beat Envoye Special for 2nd place. He then went to Kingston Blount where he pulled up. That was two months ago so I am guessing that he had an issue that day given we haven't seen him since and the run was too bad to be true. Clearly got obvious claims to land this contest again.   Verdict - If Trio For Rio bounces back from his poor run last time then he has a chance of winning this for the 2nd year running, but the fact he jumps to his left isn't going to help him and although he could uphold form with those he beat in this race last year I think two that didn't run in the contest are good enough to land this. Moratorium looks like he's been lined up for this race and the fact his trainer has booked Will Biddick for the ride instead of riding him himself tells you they want him to have the best possible chance of winning. I am also going to cover Tel'Art who was just behind him earlier in the season and on his Exeter run I think he's got a very good chance here. He looks way over priced at 14/1.   Moratorium 2pts @ 2/1 with William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 6/4) Tel'Art 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)   6.25 Cheltenham De Vaige - Won a Newton Abbot handicap off 112 in August and has run OK in 4 points this season and won the first of them beating Capitaine over 2m4f. Solid enough runs since, but would be a surprise winner of this.   Dandy Dan - Ended up being pretty useful for Kim Bailey getting up to a mark in the 140s. He has given Laureen Keen-Hawkins some good experience this season in 5 points which have been her only ever rides. He nearly beat Sixteen Letters first up and was a staying on 3rd behind Captain Buck's after that. He was giving Caid Du Berlais a good race at Ston Easton until she suffered a pretty soft unseat at 2 out. He won well at Howick and then had no issues winning a match at Andoversford earlier in the month. Clearly the jockey's experience is a concern, but I think he still has a fair level of ability and if he gets round safely I can see him finishing strongly up the hill.   Fifty Shades - Landed the Lord Ashton of Hydes Cup at Cocklebarrow in January over 3m6f and given his stamina I'm a little surprised he hasn't run in the 4m race. He beat Sumkindofking that day and beat the same horse at Didmarton which to be fair is a pretty sharp track. He wouldn't have been suited by a match at Maisemore last time so I wouldn't read too much into the fact he was beaten at 8/13 that day. He was 3rd in this race last year and this year's renewal looks a bit stronger on paper, but he's in good heart and can run well.   Mighty Stowaway - Ran a huge race at the Festival when Jamie Codd kicked for home with Winged Leader plenty early enough which did for both their chances. Even so it was a new personal best for me to finish 3rd behind Billaway (who runs 10 minutes after this race starts). He was privately sold after that and the Sutton's purchased him and have sent him to Lawney Hill. He was due to run at Aintree but was taken out on the day of the race. He's been a solid horse over the years and clearly if he can repeat the Cheltenham 3rd then he has a leading chance.   Salvatore - If they do over water than that will increase Salvatore's chances as he can be very good when there is cut in the ground. He got no luck in the Intermediate Final in 2019 when finishing 3rd which was a good run, but he ran no sort of race at the Festival last year. This season he's been very in and out. Obviously he won at Bangor two starts back, but I wouldn't read too much into that form as Porlock Bay wasn't at his best that day and Dieu Vivant is a serial loser. Having said that he did manage to reverse form with him at Southwell the next time, but Salvatore ran below par again and it left Dieu Vivant with a very easy task. He probably does have the ability to win this, but chances are he will have needed them to really over water to do so.   Sumkindofking - Beat Cheltenham De Vaige last time, but was 2nd to Fifty Shades on this previous two starts. Obviously a good jockey booking, but he doesn't seem a likely winner to me.   Zamparelli - Fell early on in the final race on this card last year and has had 4 2nds since he won at Ludlow last March. I thought his jockey left it a bit late to go after Bletchley Castle at Ludlow 2 starts back and then bizarrely he set a blistering gallop on his next start at Stratford. Not surprisingly he got tired and ended up finishing 2nd. My thinking was he is better over shorter distances than this, but perhaps he stays better now given he has looked a bit outpaced over shorter apart from last time where like I say he went too fast. I'm sure he will be ridden with more restraint here and could be capable of going well.   Caryto Des Brosses - A horse who has been blighted with injury issues which is a shame because I think he had the potential to be a Foxhunters horse and to be fair he still could be given he is only 10. He won the Restricted race at Stratford's hunter chase night in 2018 and after that I had him down as a potential top notcher as I was very impressed with him that night. The next year he was just denied by Hazel Hill in this contest and then he was headed right on the line in the big race at Stratford by Wonderful Charm. He was only seen once in 2020 when he pulled up and then he only made it back in June last year for one win at Garthorpe. This year he has only beaten 4 rivals for two wins, but he couldn't have done it any easier and to me he still has the ability he had back in 2018 and 2019. I think he could easily go one place better this year.   Geordie B - Thought he ran pretty well behind Dolphin Square at Lingfield in February and I think he is better than he was able to show at Carlisle last time where he only just got up to beat Shanroe Street. That one clearly did nothing for the form when beaten at Hexham last time although again I wouldn't use that as a guide as I think he should have won with a better ride. I think he will be better in a better race so I wouldn't rule him out totally, but he will have to find some more improvement I think.   Story Of Friends - Stuff at Wincanton last time and has no chance here.   Trappist Monk - Won a match at Aldington 11 days ago, but this is much tougher.   Verdict - This is all about Caryto Des Brosses for me as I think he is the best horse in the race. It was no surprise the 9/2 that he opened up at was very quickly taken and he's much shorter now, but I just think he wins so I still think the price is value. If Mighty Stowaway repeats the Festival run then clearly he is likely to be the main danger and if the jockey can get Dandy Dan round then he might be capable of hitting the frame, but there really is little depth to this race for me.   Caryto Des Brosses 4pts @ 13/8 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to Evs)   7.00 Wind Tor - Ran well enough when 3rd at Wadebridge in January and then went handicapping winning a couple at Exeter over 3m off 86 and 94. Last time though she finished last at Warwick although the trainer said the ground was too quick for her. Would need the front two in the betting to disappoint and for the ground to be over watered.   Cashmoll - Won her last two, but one was a walkover and the other basically a match. I think her chance is highlighted by the fact she was 51L behind Mammoth at Horseheath on New Years Eve and Feuille De Lune beat that horse by 30L last time.   Feuille De Lune - One of the most impressive pointers to have run this season. She really is some tool having won 4/4. The first win in November she finished alone and then the winning margins for her other wins are 25L, 25L and 30L. At the first of those at Charing Envious Editor would have finished 2nd but for unseating at the last and she had easily despatched him. Last time at Charm Park she was so good that every other horse but the 2nd pulled up in the race. The trainer has described her as the best horse she has trained and considering she trained Top Wood who was placed twice in the Foxhunter here and won the Aintree Foxhunters' that proves how good she is. The one thing about her though is she jumps to the right which is clearly a concern round here. Still I think she will be too good anyway and really only has one other horse to beat.   Kalabaloo - That other horse is this one and she won the race in 2019 in really good style. In 2020 she was 9th at the Festival and then last year she suffered an injury in her only start at Kelso causing her to miss the rest of the season. This season she won her first 3 starts in really good fashion, but then at the start of this month was very disappointing a Edgcote finishing a well beaten last. She needs to bounce back from that, but she obviously must be well at home otherwise she wouldn't be running. Looks the only danger to Feuille De Lune.   Tb Broke Her - Hasn't run too badly in her last couple of points, but has plenty to find with the principles.   Verdict - As long as she doesn't blow her chance by jumping out to the right then I don't see how Feuille De Lune doesn't win this. She has looked so good in her 4 pointing wins this season and has a serious engine. It is no surprise she has been backed into favouritism, but there is still some value in the price for me in what should be a match. Kalabaloo won this in 2019 and looks the only one good enough to take advantage should the jumping prove to be Feuille De Lune's downfall.   Feuille De Lune 4pts @ Evs with most bookies (take up to 4/6)   7.35 Captain Drake - New connections paid £21k at the sales for him last month after he had pulled up in the Midlands National. The positives are that he stays really well and was 4th in last season's Welsh National as well as finishing 2nd in the 2020 Midlands National. He had looked on the downgrade this season until he won the Devon National at Exeter in February off 127. He is a horse who has already had two wind ops and has worn a tongue tie on his last 8 starts, but the vet reported after the Uttoxeter run last time that he had a breathing problem. That has to be a concern although if he runs up to his Exeter run then he clearly is a big player.   Coup De Pinceau - Well behind Give Me A Copper at Newbury last time and looks an unlikely winner.   Dawson City - We know he stays really well and finished 3rd behind Captain Drake at Exeter two starts back. He was beaten just under 10L that day when they carried the same weight and with jockey's claims here he gets 4lbs tonight. He ran OK over hurdles last time when finding it a bit sharp for him round Taunton. This test should be ideal for him and hard not to see him running well.   Gran Paradiso - Won a handicap at Sedgefield off 104 just over a year ago and managed to win a Mixed Open at Cothelstone over 3m4f last month. Was beaten at 1/2 at Barbury next time though. Stamina should be fine, but hard to see him having the class to win this.   Law Of Gold - I was rather surprised to see him entered in this as I thought they would look for a lesser race before heading back to Stratford for Stratford Foxhunters. He was very good that night in beating Bob And Co and prior to that he had got the better of Shantou Flyer at Fontwell. The big issue is his 3 runs this season. He ran no sort of race at Wetherby and then at Ascot although he won his only other rival Adrian Du Pont burst a blood vessel. I thought he looked a bit lazy that day and he certainly did at Fakenham last week when he never really travelled well at all and certainly never really looked like winning. I guess it could have been a sharp enough test for him, but even so he made heavy weather of getting past the 3rd. This is clearly a very different test though and although he's never been this far he ought to stay. They have also put the cheekpieces on to try and wake him up. What also has to be a concern is that connections have said they weren't going to run him in the Festival Hunter Chase anymore because he doesn't like the water jump. Both times he ran in the race he's made a mistake at the water jump and although in 2020 he ran OK to finish 7th he ended up pulling up last year. Obviously he's at a lesser level here, but he arrives with a few question marks over him.   Shantou Flyer - He loves Cheltenham having won twice, finished 2nd 4 times and 3rd twice in 10 starts here. He's pulled up a couple of times in the Grand National, but you would imagine he will stay fine in a race like this. He's just been seen once this season when beating Jett at Fontwell although given how that horse ran at Aintree and the fact he looked like he dogged it a bit at Fontwell I'm not sure he achieved a huge amount. Even so he should be capable of running a big race at his favourite track.   Give Me A Copper - He has looked an ideal candidate for this race all season and it wouldn't surprise me if this has been the target. He ran as if he found 3m round Warwick on the sharp side when 3rd in January on his debut for new connections. Last month he then went to Ludlow in race which turned into a match and I thought Will didn't use enough of his stamina which allowed Gesskille to beat him with his pace. That was still a good effort though because the winner looked very good when winning at Kempton next time out. Then at the start of the month he went to Newbury over just short of 3m and it was no surprise to see him get outpaced before staying on really well to finish 2nd to Ami Desbois. I think that is a really strong piece of form and Solomon Grey who was 3rd that day bolted up at Ludlow last week. He's got the cheekpieces on for the first time to help him as well, but 4m round here looks right up his street. The race is probably a little stronger than I thought it might be, but I think he's got better with every run this season and as I say that 2nd at Newbury is rock solid, so I think he has a fantastic chance.   Mr Snuffles - Looks like he will be outclassed here.   Optimised - Won a hunter chase at Bangor in 2019 and was 1L 2nd to Southfield Theatre in this race in 2019. He also ran well enough in this last year when 6th, but he hasn't looked in any sort of form this season and whilst coming back to this race might perk him up it is hard to see him hitting the frame in the form he is in.   Popelys Gull - Shouldn't be anywhere near good enough to land a blow here.   Roc D'Apsis - Well beaten in the Grand Military Gold Cup last month and although he won a point a couple of months later he was well beaten at Kimble over Easter and shouldn't be good enough.   Sam Red - Regardless of the rest of his form he seems to love this race as he was 3rd (albeit 27L behind the winner) in 2019 and then last year he was 2nd beaten a length by Captain Cattistock. There is nothing remotely in the rest of his form to suggest he should be a player in this and he was 62L behind Shantou Flyer at Fontwell. Even so given his record in the race if you want to take a chance e/w I could hardly blame you.   Smoke Man - Comes here on the back of landing a hat-trick in points and he looks like he will stay this sort of trip and would be in better form than he was when he tried 3m5f last year. I really respect his trainer, but the form of those wins are someway below what some of these have managed and he will need to improve a fair bit to win this.   Verdict - Must admit that this race is a little stronger than I had hoped when I earmarked Give Me A Copper out for the race, but I still think he rates a fantastic bet at the prices. He has been running well all season especially at Newbury last time and he has been crying out for a stamina test which he finally gets. Shantou Flyer has a great record here and if he wins it wouldn't surprise, but his price is shocking as I don't think he achieved a great deal at Fontwell. If the stamina test and cheekpieces turn out to be what Law Of Gold needs then he rates the main danger to Give Me A Copper. Dawson City and Captain Drake need the ground to be overwatered in my view as both seem at their best with cut in the ground, but at least both will stay.   Give Me A Copper 3pts @ 5/1 with most bookies and 11/2 in a place (take up to 3/1)   8.10  Across The Line - Syd Hosie has paid £28k for him at the sales a month ago and he looks a solid 120 horse, but you are going to need to be better than that to win this.   Cousin Pascal - Gave it a good go from the front in the Foxhunters', but faded into 5th late on. I can't help but feel that he left his race behind him when running at the Festival where he didn't really have a great experience. He's good enough to win this, but I'm not sure he's going to be at his best after two tough races.   Peacocks Secret - Was 3rd in this last year when he travelled really well into the race but didn't quite see it out as well as the two in front of him. Has been running consistently again this year and was suited by hold up tactics at Stratford when beating Zamparelli who went too fast that day. He then walked over at Dingley last time. He's got a place chance again, but this looks quite a hot race.   Stratagem - Was pulled up at Hereford on his hunter chase debut when Paul Nicholls' horses were running poorly so it wasn't a huge surprise when he put that performance behind him when bolting up at Ludlow beating Solomon Grey by 16L. That was hugely impressive and it was disappointing he got beat at Warwick a few days later. I did think that if Maxwell had kicked for home earlier though then Not That Fuisse wouldn't have caught him. Also it might have come soon enough after the Ludlow win. He looks a top class horse and should go close.   Wagner - Beat Cousin Pascal at Hereford and then benefitted from Adrian Du Pont falling when in total command at Wincanton. Still it was a good effort as he didn't jump as well as he had at Hereford in ground he would have found soft enough. I thought he gave Bletchley Castle too much rope at Ludlow last time and he could never reel him in. Stepping back up in trip will probably suit and he has place claims here.   Ami Desbois - As I've already mentioned elsewhere he won a really hot form race at Newbury when beating Give Me A Copper who will hopefully have given the form a boost in the previous race. I actually think the slight drop down in trip might suit him as he looks to have plenty of pace based on the fact he's made the running on all 3 starts this season. There is no better trainer than Fergal O'Brien at knowing what horses to send hunter chasing and he proved it again with this horse. I thought his jockey gave him a good ride at Newbury and the 7lbs is going to come in handy as it means Stratagem has to give him 11lbs. A leading contender to make all.   Solomon Grey - He helped frank the Newbury form by bolting up at Ludlow last week and although he had little to beat in the end the time was decent and it was a good performance. He does have ground to make up on Stratagem and Ami Desbois having been 16L and 6L behind them at Ludlow and Newbury, but he looked like he might have come forward again last week. I'm still not sure he can reverse the form, but he clearly is one of the leading contenders.   Clondaw Westie - Ran really well to finish 2nd in this last year and that came on the back of running a huge race to finish 4th in the Aintree Foxhunters' and he was unlucky to lose at Stratford as he unseated Izzie at the last when looking the likely winner. Clearly trained for Aintree again this year he was in 2nd when again unseating Izzie this time at the Canal Turn. This looks a stronger race than last year, but he could easily run well again.   Eeze A Saint - A bit of a dark horse as he came over from France where he fell on his last start in March last year. He then bolted up in a point at Bitterley at the beginning of the month where beat Master Sunrise by 22L. We can at least going back to his pointing form in 2019 where easily won an Intermediate to break his maiden tag. Chances are he is going to have to be very good to win a race like this, but he clearly has ability.   Midnight Cowboy - Ran pretty well at Fakenham last week when 3rd to Not That Fuisse and whilst that gives him a form chance through that horse this is likely to be a very different type of race and he shouldn't be good enough.   Point And Sharp - Was awful at Kempton last time and will do well to get round here.   Verdict - This is a good race, but I really do think Stratagem has a class edge on his rivals. That Ludlow performance was one of the best of the season and he really ought to have won at Warwick, but even so if Not That Fuisse was running in this he would be one of the fancied horses. I do want Ami Desbois on side as well as that Newbury run was very good. This is the race with the most depth in it though as the next few in the betting all have some sort of chance as well, but I am going to have a small e/w bet on Eeze A Saint. I wasn't originally going to back him, but he clearly has ability and he's a much bigger price than I thought he would be so he can be added to the bets.   Stratgem 1.5pts @ 2/1 with William Hill and BetVictor 9/4 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4) Ami Desbois 1pt @ 4/1 with pretty much everyone (take up to 11/4) Eeze A Saint 0.25pts e/w @ 33/1 with everyone (take up to 20/1)

Boreham Wood v Bromley We have to thank Boreham Wood as a lot of the profit side of things has come from opposing them lately. I am more than happy to oppose them again. We have two sides who were bang in contention for the play-offs, but both sides have seen poor form mean they won't now make them. Bromley's issue has been scoring goals and they missed some good chances against Maidenhead on Monday. That obviously is a concern here, but at least they have won recently whereas Boreham Wood haven't and the price difference between the two sides is way too big.   Chippenham v Dulwich Hamlet I thought Mike Cook leaving Chippenham might see them suffer a loss of form, but that hasn't really happened and I think they can pick up 3 points here. Dulwich have really struggled for weeks now and no wins in 9 games has seen them more than likely blow a play-off place. Chippenham are still in the play-off hunt and they had a good win over Oxford City last time. They look in better nick at the moment and are worth backing.   Chorley v AFC Telford Chorley are struggling of late as I highlighted recently when I opposed them with Alfreton. I thought Telford would pull away from the relegation zone, but they haven't done quite as well as I thought they would. Even so they have been picking up points and they are capable of getting something out of this so look a decent price.   Southport v Spennymoor Happy to oppose Southport again as they are really struggling on the whole. Spennymoor are one of the form sides at the moment and I think they can pick up another 3 points here as they try and claim a play-off spot.   York v Gloucester York are pretty inconsistent at the moment and lost 3-0 to Alfreton on Monday and Gloucester have been doing pretty well of late apart from a poor performance at Kettering on Good Friday. Their only other 2 losses in the last 10 games though were a harsh defeat at Telford and against Gateshead who not surprisingly outclassed them. They look over priced to get 3 more points here.   Grantham v South Shields South Shields' away from has stopped them from winning the league. When they beat FCUM on Saturday that was their first away win in 9 matches and even that wasn't a deserved win. I don't think they will chase the title now as the goal difference is too big really and they can't finish lower than 2nd so I think they might rest some players in this with the play-offs in mind. Grantham are already relegated, but have had a couple of decent results in their last two games and if South Shields do ease of then they could win this.   Merstham v Carshalton Merstham have lost 10 on the bounce and have scored 5 and conceded 27 in that time. That means they are bottom of the table, but they still have a chance of beating in the drop and this could be the perfect game for them. Carshalton have shown themselves to be on the beach already and with nothing to play for the home side might just be able to get the result they need.   Bromley 1pt @ 9/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Bet365 (11/4 with Skybet and take up to 7/4) Chippenham 1pt @ 7/5 with William Hill (take up to 5/4) AFC Telford 1pt @ 15/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (4/1 with William Hill and take up to 11/4) Spennymoor 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred (15/8 with William Hill and take up to 11/8) Gloucester 1pt @ 14/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (bigger with William Hill and take up to 2/1) Grantham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 13/8) Merstham 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 7/4)

Great to land a massive number with Dover on Good Friday especially as we haven't had a great deal of luck with any of the real big prices that I have put up this season. It was a deserved win as well by the sounds of it. Alfreton were also winners on Good Friday. Onto Easter Monday and just time for the tips of which there are 8.   Wealdstone to beat Boreham Wood 1pt @ 14/5 with Skybet, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 2/1) Alfreton to beat York 1pt @ 11/5 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfai (take up to 15/8) Farsley Celtic to beat Southport 1pt @ 21/10 with Skybet, BetVictor and William Hill (take up to 7/4) Corinthian Casuals to beat Carshalton 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365,  Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 2/1) Bishops Stortford to beat Cheshunt 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4) Leatherhead to beat Kingstonian 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 2/1) Bromsgrove to beat Stratford 1pt @ 6/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Bet365 (take up to Evs) Coalville to beat Rushall Olympic 1pt @ 6/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Bet365 (take up to Evs)

The one downside to betting on Australian racing is we don't get BOG and also I'm asleep when the races happen. James Reynolds drifted to over 20/1 which was made, but at least he hit the frame. What was even more annoying though was I really fancied Vanguard and he drifted so much he didn't even go off favourite for the race! Still these things can't be helped.
Easter Monday sees an all jumps card at Pakenham and we have some really good action to look forward to with two feature races over hurdles and fences as horses are looking to build up fitness for the Warrnambool Festival at the start of May.
Race 1 Zedstar seems the obvious place to start as he managed to finish 2nd on his first 4 hurdle starts last season and then 3rd on his following 2. He got really close to breaking his duck in a couple of those 2nds and it would be surprising if he doesn't find a race sooner rather than later. He ran well on the flat last month which is a good sign. Pueblo is the other main contender to come from last year's hurdle races and although he was well beaten in all 3 starts he did finish 3rd once and 2nd twice and he was beaten by good horses so although the margins were big enough in the context of this race I think they are strong runs. He won on the flat last month and was beaten less than 3L despite finishing last earlier this month. I think he's a good chance here. Johnny Buccaneer and Dr Dependable were 4th and 2nd at Warrnambool and there wasn't much between them that day. Dr Dependable was then 4th at Hamilton last time behind Blenheim Palace which was another decent effort.   However he was 3L behind Joshua Reynolds and I think the form will be upheld here. I put Joshua Reynolds up e/w at Hamilton and I can't believe he drifted to such a big price as it was way too big based on his 2019 hurdles form where he had finished a close 2nd twice. As I mentioned last time he missed 2020 and only had the 1 flat start in February 21. I thought it was cracking run as he'd only had 3 flat starts and a couple of trials to get him ready. He will surely strip fitter here and he's got a big chance.   I'm really surprised by the betting here and I can't understand why Joshua Reynolds is as big as he is and why Dr Dependable is favourite so he is the main bet. I am also covering Zedstar as I thought he was likely to be the market leader so he's over priced as well. Before seeing the prices I thought Pueblo might be the one who was over priced, but as it stands I think he's about right at 3/1.   Joshua Reynolds 1pt @ 11/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred Zedstar 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes   Race 2 I don't think this is a strong race on paper. Annoyingly neither hurdle trial of Blandford Lad is available to view, but he is the best flat horse of these and won a decent handicap at Flemington last month. Nothing in this could get anywhere near that level on the flat. Some of these showed useful enough form over hurdles last season. Not Usual Dream didn't have a great start over hurdles last year, but then finished 2nd twice and 3rd twice. Has had flat runs and 2 hurdles trials for fitness and he can go well. Once Were Lost showed ability over hurdles last year, but I thought his 2 steeplechase runs were better. He's had 3 trials and a flat run for fitness. Onset has run over hurdles 9 times for 2 2nds and 3 3rds. I thought her best effort was over course and distance so that bodes well. Should be fit enough after 4 flat runs and 3 trials.   Of the other hurdle newcomers Zouy's Comet and Runaway Train look the most likely contenders. Again no video footage of either's hurdle trials but the former did win his latest one. What was interesting was that after his flat run last week the trainer reported to the stewards that he'd trailed well over hurdles which bodes well. He was essentially pulled up in that run, but his jockey thought there was something amiss although he was fine after the race. His previous start saw him finish a close 2nd. Runaway Trian has been running pretty well at a low level on the flat of late and has had a couple of hurdle trials leading into this.   If Blandford Lad transfers his flat class to hurdles then he ought to be winning this and understandably he's pretty short so for me it is a race just to watch.   Race 3 I think this winner of 1 Hurdle race could be a very hot form race and I think it looks tricky. We have Hush Writer and Blenheim Palace who have both looked good in winning maiden hurdles this season and are classy horses coming from the flat. We then have horses who have won maiden hurdles last season. Brungle Bertie wouldn't have the other two's flat class, but he did it well when winning his only hurdle start to date. Rolland Garros was poor on his hurdling debut, but he looked good on his next start and then went to Ballarat at the end of the season and was a very good 2nd. He's good enough to win this, but it was interesting that his jockey's reported he needs a heavy track after his two defeats so the ground is unlikely to be soft enough for him. My guess is that this run is being used to get his eye in ahead of Warrnambool. Sir Edwin Landseer looks the other one to have a chance of winning. He's really lost his way badly on the flat, but showed he liked hurdling last year with his first two runs over hurdles the peak of his efforts. He's trialled well over hurdles ahead of this and he should run well. I've really fancied Annunciate on both starts this season, but I can't have him winning a race like this on the back of those 2 efforts.   I think there is some value in backing Blenheim Palace whose 2nd in the betting behind Hush Writer. I thought both did it well enough on debut and I wouldn't have as much between them as the betting does. It is no surprise that the opening 6/1 about him was taken. I'm also going to cover Sir Edwin Landseer as he's a huge price based on his hurdling form. I can only think they have him priced up on his flat form.   Blenheim Palace 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 Sir Edwin Landseer 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral   Race 4 Gobstopper - Very good hurdler in 2020 winning 4 times including the Australian Hurdle at Sandown. Missed last year and has had 7 starts on the flat and had some trials this year. Not been showing a great deal on the flat and I'd rather watch for now.   Saunter Boy - Won the winner of 1 hurdle on this card last year and then bolted up in the Australian Hurdle. He then continued in good for with another win over hurdles and two very good runs on the flat before disappointing in the Grand National Hurdle. He bounced back though to take the JJ Hurdle at Ballarat at the end of the season. He's had a couple starts on the flat ahead of this and has run OK in both as he looks to be building his fitness. Going to be a big player here.   Eckhart - Won a couple of times last year over hurdles, but not at the same level of some of these. Been building up his fitness on the flat this year, but would need to have improved to win this.   Runaway - Was well beaten in this last year and would have to step up again to do better this time around. Ran OK on the flat last month which was his first start since July.   Out And Dreaming - Was 2nd in the maiden on this card last year and then went and won 3 on the bounce. He was then 20L behind Saunter Boy at Warrnambool, but the ground was very testing that day and the fact he wasn't seen again suggests there may have been an issue. Not as good as some of these on the flat, but he won a couple of races back in February. He's won a couple of hurdle trials that will have got his eye in and he has a good chance here.   Tamarack - Won his first two starts over hurdles within 7 days of each other at Sale and Sandown last year, but then only beat 1 home in the JJ Hurdle. Not shown much on the flat this year, but clearly going to apricate going back over hurdles. Could be a possible improver this season.   St Arnicca - This is certainly stronger than the race he won Warrnambool last month, but he did it nicely and at least has a recent run over hurdles in his favour.   A good race for the feature hurdle on the card, but I do think Saunter Boy is the most likely winner so he is the main bet. I'm also going to cover Out And Dreaming who on this better ground can at least get closer to Saunter Boy.   Saunter Boy 1.5pts @ 8/5 with Bet365 Out And Dreaming 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Betfred   Race 5 Cracking race this and I think it will be won by one of the 3 chasing newcomers. Heberite is 2/2 over hurdles having won the last maiden hurdle of last year at Ballarat and then winning on the opening card of this season at Terang where he beat a weak field with ease. There is only video footage of his first chase trial and he jumped OK when finishing 3rd of 3. He won his last one though so his jumping could well have improved in that trial.   Valac won his first two hurdles and then seemed to not stay 3900m at Sandown in the Australian Hurdle. He was spelled after that and then ran on the flat 4 times in the Autumn. He's had two steeple trails and again there is only footage of the first one, but he jumped really well in it when finishing 2nd. He won the 2nd one in a 3 second quicker time than Heberite and although its been a while since he ran in a race proper he looks like he will be fit enough for this.   Budd Fox just had the two starts over hurdles last year and he won the maiden hurdle on this card in the first of them before disappointing a little when 4th at Sandown the following month. He then went back to the flat for the rest of the year running well on the whole. He's had three flat starts this year and he won a BM78 at Sandown last month and then on April 6th was 2nd in similar contest. He's clearly flying and in between those two efforts he had a steeple trial where I was really impressed with his jumping.   I'm really keen on Budd Fox here as he comes here in great form and I loved his jumping in his trial. I will also have a cover bet on Valac who I would have as 2nd favourite over Heberite. It would be surprising if one of those 3 doesn't win.   Budd Fox 2.5pts @ 11/8 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes Valac 0.5pts @ 14/5 with Bet365   Race 6 The feature steeplechase on the card features one of the best chasers in Zed Em. He was 2nd in the Grand Annual last year having run in the two big chases at Oakbank (sadly no more) finishing 2nd both times. He's had 3 flat starts in New Zealand and one in Australia prior to a couple of steeple trials. He clearly has a chance of taking this on his way to the Grand Annual, but I think he might find this a sharp enough test and clearly he is being trained to peak next month.   Riding High landed last year's Australian Chase at Sandown so he is certainly capable enough of winning a race like this. This is a very different test though and although he's been running OK on the flat this year I do think he might be better in a couple of starts time.   Getting Leggie was 2nd in this 2 years ago and then went on to win the Brierly at Warrnambool although he disappointed on his other two starts that year. Last year his only run was in the Von Doussa at Oakbank and he must have picked up an injury as he only beat one home and then wasn't seen again. He's had a steeple trial and a hurdle this year but not shown a great deal and as much as he does have the ability to win this my thinking is he will need it fitness wise.   This is a step up from the two races Britannicus has run in so far this season, but I thought he was pretty impressive at Warrnambool and I think this further step up in trip will suit him as well. We know he's fit and I just wonder if connections will have eyed up this race as a suitable early season target for him, because to me the others either shouldn't be good enough or are likely to have targets in the future like Zed Em for example. So for me Britannicus is a pretty confident selection.   Britannicus 2.5pts @ 13/10 with Bet365

Here is my Aintree Foxhunters' preview. As I explain at the end we are getting some tremendous e/w value so am attacking the race strongly in the hope the winner is covered and a couple more hit the frame. Ultimately though place the bets you feel comfortable placing on the race, but I felt it fair to put up exactly how I have placed my bets on the race.    Actival - No doubt will give his jockey a nice spin round, but his form this season is nowhere near good enough to get involved at the business end of the race.   Another Venture - Thought his 2nd in the opening hunter chase of the season was a solid effort and then at Bangor he probably didn't enjoy being ridden so prominently. Even so he looks another one that should give his jockey a nice spin round without being good enough to trouble the judge.   Cat Tiger - All the talk had been that Bob And Co was going to be the chosen Maxwell runner but he has had a late change of heart. He was in front jumping the last in this last year, but then he faded to finish 3rd. I was a bit surprised that after the Grand Sefton Maxwell said that the horse didn't handle the track given he ran so well last year. I just thought he didn't get a great ride in the Grand Sefton which was the reason he was a well beaten 5th. After that he was 2nd at Doncaster and then won at Ascot in January. He ran in the Kim Muir last month but never got competitive which is a concern, but he has to be one for the shortlist based on his previous form this season and last year's 3rd.   Clondaw Westie - Ran a hell of a race in this last year to finish 4th at 200/1 and he backed that up with a good 2nd at Cheltenham and he would likely have won at Stratford if he hadn't unseated his jockey at the last. He has had 4 starts this season in points and has failed to complete twice and finished 2nd twice. He didn't exactly come into this race last year in very good form and arguably he's run better this time around. No doubt he has been trained for this race and as much as it's hard to see him being good enough to win you couldn't rule out another good showing and possibly hitting the frame at big odds again.   Complete Sizing - Won a maiden hunter chase at Clonmel last year for his former connections, but followed that up with a fairly well beaten 2nd to Some Man. He's now trained by Phil Rowley and was a well beaten 3rd behind Premier Magic and Porlock Bay at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. He did follow that up with a win at Bangor's point to point course, but that level of form would need to be improved on by a fair bit to get seriously involved here.   Cousin Pascal - As I mentioned in my Cheltenham preview he has a history of running poorly when facing a long trip in the horse box. Maybe that was to blame for his Cheltenham performance, but he ran no sort of race that day and if anything I'm surprised James didn't pull him up sooner with this race in mind. James gave him a peach of a ride last year and I certainly think his ride won him the race as he gave him the perfect Aintree ride. He is a horse that has bounced back after poor efforts so the Cheltenham run wouldn't put me off as such and I think he has to go on anyone's shortlist.   Dashing Perk - Trainer has won this before and this horse only got as far as the first last year when he was bumped into and came down. Has run twice this season in veterans' races pulling up at Haydock and then finishing a well beaten 4th in the final at Sandown. I thought he was short enough last year at 12/1, but obviously impossible to know how he would have got on. It wouldn't be a total shock if he was able to be involved, but for me there is a lot of guesswork involved about what form he is in and the percentage call for me is to oppose.   Demain Des L'aube - Has run like a non-stayer in points this season and he backed up that view at Carlisle in a hunter chase last time. He travelled well enough into the race, but then didn't see out the trip. I just wonder if he ran there to qualify for this and the drop back in trip will certainly suit. Connections have had a big price placed horse in this in the recent pass and although he would be a surprise winner I wouldn't be overly surprised if he finished in the top half of the field.   Down The Highway - Only managed to win 1 point in Ireland from 5 starts and then was a well beaten 3rd in a hunter chase at Gowran Park last time. Looks an unlikely winner to me.   Drumconnor Lad - Thought he ran well enough on his hunter chase debut in the Walrus at Haydock although might have been a bit flattered to finish as close as he did as they went no pace. Dropped down to 2m last time at Leicester where he stayed on well to be beaten less than a length having been outpaced. I think this trip will suit and can see him running well enough, but I'd be a bit surprised if he ended up in the frame.   Ferocious - Ought to be massively outclassed here.   Golden Tobouggan - A rather quirky horse who has plenty of ability but doesn't win as many races as he should. Ran well for a long way in this last year before weakening at 3 out and then pulling up before 2 out. If he settled better this year then I can see him getting round, but that could be easier said than done with him.   Jett - Gave a real bold sight out in front in last year's National and was only headed as they turned for home. He jumped really well and clearly enjoyed the experience of jumping these fences. His seasonal return came in a handicap at Doncaster and he ran a cracking race to finish 3rd off 152 in a race that has worked out really well. Connections then made a late decision to try and qualify him for Cheltenham. He had a simple task at Kelso and then went to Fontwell where he was 2nd to Shantou Flyer. I thought it was telling that connections decided to skip Cheltenham after that because he seemed to not really go through with his effort after taken the lead. I can't have it that Kelso took anything out of him because he would have had harder gallops than what he had to do that day. Possibly Fontwell didn't suit him and we know that Aintree does and if he runs to his Doncaster effort then he has a big chance. I just worry though that he won't repeat that and he might find it tougher to make the running over this shorter trip where they will be going quicker. If he won it wouldn't surprise me and his jockey has a great record over these fences, but I think his price is short enough at the moment.   Latenightpass - Ran a huge race to finish 2nd in this last year especially as he had been to Cheltenham first and finished 4th their. I actually thought him going very wide at the Canal Turn was the difference between him winning and losing last year as Cousin Pascal must have saved at least the distance he beat him by. This year connections have decided to bypass Cheltenham which was a sensible decision and have kept him to pointing. He has won 2, but in between he did fall at the last when looking the winner. It was an uncharacteristic fall so I'm not worried about his jumping and he has a huge chance.   Le Breuil - Has finished 3rd in a Becher Chase before although he pulled up in this season's renewal. Was a fair 3rd at Ascot in a handicap behind Cat Tiger in January and then ran well enough in hunter chases at Wetherby and Doncaster. He actually looked the winner for a long way at Doncaster, but emptied quite quickly after a peck on landing at 4 out. His last win was in the National Hunt Chase so he ought to have stayed better than he did that day and he looks an unlikely winner for me.   Marrcudja - Plenty to like about his two hunter chase performances so far with a good 3rd at Hereford just behind Cousin Pascal and then he bolted up at Leicester. I think he is one of the possible winners here and I'm a big fan of his jockey although he can't use his claim.   Michael's Pick - Landed a maiden hunter chase at Downpatrick last month, but that form is way below what is needed here as is the rest of his form.   Mighty Stowaway - Ran a huge race at Cheltenham to finish 3rd where he didn't quite see out the race as well as the first 2 having kicked for home with Winged Leader. He was put up for sale on Twitter last week and he has now moved to Lawney Hill's yard. Clearly they won't have had him for very long. The big concern for me though is he looked like he hated it last year when he finished 10th and the Cheltenham effort was for me by far a personal best. If he does back that up and he takes to the fences then he clearly has a chance, but they are big enough ifs for me to not want to get involved.   Myth Buster - It was a bad hunter chase he won at Musselburgh and he's been beaten in 3 points so far this season so he would be a surprising winner for me.   Pont Aven - You have to give him some credit for actually getting round at Cheltenham given so few did, but I was right about him not being able to bully that field in the same way he had lesser fields in points and at Ludlow. I think this test has every chance of suiting him better than Cheltenham, but his jumping has been an issue in the past and the worry is he might make one mistake too many round here and that would cost him. Also has the Cheltenham experience left a mark? I'd probably be keener on his chances if he had come straight here.    Porlock Bay - I always thought Aintree would suit him more than Cheltenham and as much as I thought he had the quality to win at Cheltenham I wasn't sure he had the stamina needed. He proved me wrong though as him and Billaway pulled a long way clear of the rest. Connections then decided to put him away and he reappeared with a 2nd at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas to Premier Magic which I thought was a really good effort as Porlock Bay probably wasn't as fit as the winner that day. Although he was 2nd at Bangor he took a backwards step for me and it was no surprise to hear after the race that he had an issue which meant he would skip Cheltenham. In an ideal world you would have liked to have seen him get a little prep run in somewhere, but if he is back to the level he showed at Cheltenham last season then he will go very close here as I think this test promises to suit him even more.   Reikers Island - Bolted up in the final hunter chase of last season at Cartmel and then won the 2nd one of this season at Warwick. Neither were especially strong heats but he did it well enough. He was well beaten in a point last month although the heavy ground might have been to blame. Can give his jockey a good spin round, but hard for me to see him playing a part in the finish.   Stand Up And Fight - On his day he's capable of good form, but he's not really shown a great deal so far this season, especially in 2 hunter chases including when he was a well beaten 4th behind Winged Leader.   The Dellercheckout - Won a couple of points on his first two runs of the season, but was 25L behind Pont Aven at Ludlow and was then beaten in a point last month. Can see him getting round, but a top 10 finish at most for me.   Verdict - With the extra places we have on offer we are getting some incredible value especially with Bet365 and Skybet who are going 6 places which is staggering because there are so many horses that have no chance. Most of the others are going 5 places. I am going to base the bets around Bet365 and Skybet's offer because it is so generous and because of that I am going to stake more on race than I usually would. What I will say is that I do think these horses have a great chance of a top 5 finish as well, but I would maybe reduce the stakes a little. The main bet is going to be Latenightpass. I really do think if he hadn't lost so much ground at the Canal Turn last year he would have won and with him skipping Cheltenham he is going to be primed for this and I just can't see him not at least landing the e/w part of the bet. Given I thought Porlock Bay would have a better chance at Aintree than Cheltenham he is next on the list. There was nothing wrong with his seasonal return and as much as he was disappointing at Bangor there was an excuse that day so we can forgive him that. If he can run anywhere near his Cheltenham effort from last year then he's a massive chance of winning this. I think Pont Aven is overpriced even though I'm concerned about his jumping and the fact he had a hard race at Cheltenham. Again I thought Aintree would suit him more and I think the concerns are more than factored into his current price at the time of writing of 16/1. I have to have some coverage on Cousin Pascal because if he had skipped Cheltenham he would be half the price he is now. Given he has bounced back from poor runs before I don't have too many concerns about his poor effort at Cheltenham. I think other possible winners are Jett, Cat Tiger, Mighty Stowaway and Marracudja and I'd be a little surprised if one of those 7 didn't win.   I am going to have a couple of small bets at some bigger prices though as no doubt there will be something at a big price who will finish placed. Drumconnor Lad will like this trip and I think he has the ability to outrun his odds and Demain Des L'aube is a massive price, but this trip is going to be much more suitable than what he has been running over this season and he's shown he still has a fair bit of ability. Hopefully the winner is amongst the 6 bets and we can get a couple more hitting the frame as well to make a nice profit on the race.   Latenightpass 2.5pts e/w @ 11/2 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 5/1 e/w and then have 2.5pts win up to 4/1) Porlock Bay 1pt e/w @ 7/1 with Bet365 (take up to 11/2) Pont Aven 0.75pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 10/10) Cousin Pascal 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 (take up to 7/1) Drumconnor Lad 0.25pts e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 25/1) Demain Des L'aube 0.25pts e/w @ 100/1 with Skybet (take up to 50/1)

Boreham Wood v Woking Just the one bet in the National League and this is the live game. I know Boreham Wood are hard to beat at home, but they just aren't playing as well in recent weeks as they had been and it really does seem like the long season has caught up with them. Woking have shown some decent form since sacking their manager and this is new boss Darren Sarll's first game in charge after he left Yeovil to join them. The home side should be favourites, but there is some juice in the price of an away win.   Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor I know Curzon have played 2 of the best teams in the division the last twice, but they have conceded 9 goals against Gateshead and Kidderminster. They have only won 2 of their last 10 games and I don't think they have been playing that well of late. Granted Spennymoor haven't won in 4, but they have had good draws against Kidderminster and Brackley last Saturday where they had a higher xG (albeit a missed penalty was part of that) and they created plenty of chances in the 2nd half before scoring an equaliser late on. They look in better shape than their hosts at the moment and look a decent price.   Billericay v Chippenham Chippenham are still just about in the play-off hunt, but they are very in and out and away from home they are mainly out having picked up just 1 point in their last 5 games on the road. Meanwhile Billericay are in rude health at the moment with just one defeat in 7 and a creditable draw against Havant & Waterlooville last week. I think they can get back to winning ways here.   Braintree v Hampton & Richmond Staying in Essex and I have to back Braintree again. A couple of months ago you would never have thought that Braintree would end up above Hampton in the table come April, but that is what has happened. Hampton didn't muster a single shot on goal against Dartford last week and Braintree ought to be stronger favourites for me in this.   Hemel Hempstead v Chelmsford I'm more than happy to keep on opposing Chelmsford after they lost yet again last week. Hemel are on a great run of form at home having won 5 of their last 6 at home. Again it's hard to understand why they aren't shorter price favourites to win this.   Maidstone v Havant & Waterlooville I know Maidstone are top and keep getting results, but I just can't make Havant as big a price as they are for this. They are unbeaten in 7 games themselves and they have been better away from home for most of the season. They look the value play here.   East Thurrock v Merstham 3 bets in the Isthmian League to round of the tips. East Thurrock are giving themselves a right chance of staying up at the moment and Merstham are on a bad run of form so I like the home win here.   Kingstonian v Carshalton I went to watch Carshalton v Hornchurch last week and it was a very comfortable afternoon for the away side as they won 5-0 and they weren't extended at all. Recent results had suggested that Carshalton had all but given up for the season and that is very much how they played last week. Kingstonian were in title contention and then went on such a bad run of form they wont even finish in the play-offs, but they coming out of the other end of it now and they really ought to be too strong here.   Leatherhead v Cray A big game down at the bottom here and I'm not sure why Leatherhead aren't favourites for it. They have won 3 out of their last 4 and although Neil Smith has come in as Cray boss I'm not sure how much he is actually going to be able to improve them at this late stage of the season. The home side look a big price for me.   Woking 1pt @ 29/10 with William Hill and Skybet (take up to 9/4) Spennymoor 1pt @ 7/4 with William Hill (take up to 11/8) Billericay 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill (take up to 11/10) Braintree 2pts @ 29/20 with William Hill (take up to 11/10) Hemel Hempstead 3pts @ 6/4 with Bet365 (take up to Evs) Havant & Waterlooville 1pt @ 100/30 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/5) East Thurrock 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 11/10) Kingstonian 2.5pts @ Evs with everyone apart from 365 (take up to 4/6) Leatherhead 1.5pts @ 19/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/8)

Some of you might remember that I have a share in a filly in Australia and she has the first start of her 2nd prep on Thursday morning at Kyneton (R3 4.30am). I think she has a decent chance at a double figure price and here are my thoughts on the leading contenders.
Belle Et Riche - 3rd on debut at Moe last August wasn't a bad race with the winner winning at Moonee Valley since and the 4th won on its next start. That was on a Heavy 9 but seems to handle quicker ground based on her jump outs.   Kashmere Star - Good 3rd on debut at Mornington in November behind an impressive winner who had been running in Group races.    Let Fly - Was 2nd on her debut last April, but then not so good in her next two starts. Returned this prep with a fast finishing 2nd over course and distance 2 weeks ago. If she can repeat that effort then has a big chance here.   Whywhywhydeliah - Was sent off fav on debut, but was disappointing. Stepped up on that on her 2nd start when 3rd 3 weeks later.    Beneficio - She has progressed well since her last prep and was impressive when winning a jumpout recently. Usually she would have had a trial after that, but she's in such good form that the trainer has decided to send her straight to a race instead. The downside is she has drawn the outside stall, but she has so much speed from the gates that I think she will be able to track across without using too much energy up. The only other speed in the race from what I can see will come from Excela Bella who is actually drawn inside her so they might be able to come over together. She was a bit disappointing at Ballarat on the final start of her first prep, but she didn't seem to let herself down on the ground that day and the close 2nd over course and distance was a top class effort. On that effort she has a great e/w chance here.   Verdict - I think the winner will come from the above 5 and I do think Beneficio is over priced at 10/1. The question will be if she can hold off the finishers in the final furlong, but at the very least I think she can finish in the first 3. I can see why Belle Et Riche is favourite, but I think Let Fly is the one who can take this out. He has the benefit from a recent race and clearly course and distance suits well based on that 2nd a couple of weeks ago. Obviously I hope Beneficio will be able to hold on, but if Let Fly repeats her finishing effort from a couple of weeks ago then she might just lose her maiden tag.   Let Fly @ 11/4 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Coral Beneficio e/w @ 10/1 with everyone apart from William Hill