blueboy199

Winners so far
Road To Rome 1.5pts @ 13/8
Road To Rome 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1
Road To Rome 3pts @ 11/10
Asockastar 1pt @ 9/4
Risk A Fine 4pts @ 8/11
Road To Rome 2pts @ 7/4
Bally River Boy 1pt e/w 3rd @ 12/1
Wonderful Charm 3pts @ 10/11
Shantou Flyer 2pts @ evs
Seefood 0.5pts @ 6/1
Shimla Dawn 1pt @ 7/2
Arthur's Secret 2pts @ 4/1
Total staked so far I make 35.5pts and 10.5pts have been losers. The returns are 72.88pts so I make that 37.38pts of profit so far

Although I haven't written too much about the Racing Post Spotlight's and post race analysis since the season started but I have to make reference to what was said about the Ludlow race to show how clueless they are (with one or two exceptions) when it comes to Hunter Chases. Ben Hutton wrote today's Spotlight and he ended his view on Arthur's Secret saying that he isn't favoured by these weights. He tipped up Ridgeway Flyer by basically saying anything close to his best and he will win. Now the winner has a BHA rating of 110 and the Nicholls horse has a mark of 137. In a handicap Arthur's Secret would have been getting 27lbs instead of running of the same weight. The problem is Ben and most of the others fail to realise that handicap marks are a pointless when it comes to Hunter Chases. Ridgeway Flyer is running in one because he is viewed as being badly handicapped I suspect, whilst if Arthur's Secret ran in a handicap off 110 I would have a maximum bet on it. What it does mean though is that those of us who know our pointing form get a lovely price on horses up against the ex-rules runners. The winner was backed into favourite during the day, but then drifted like a barge before the off as the mug money came for the Nicholls horse and Queen Olivia no doubt because of the Road To Rome form. 
The only minor concern I had was in the very early stages as Now Ben and Garde Ville looked like they wanted to force the pace with the winner, but either their jockey's realised it was a pointless exercise or their horses just could keep up the pace. After that though there wasn't a moments doubt that Arthur's was going to win. He wasn't even keen today and he just ran at pretty sensible pace and just kept going like he does when in peak form. The Racing Post post race analysis said it was an ordinary Hunter Chase, but it wasn't you had good horses in this and the winner has made them look ordinary. He was 22L clear at the line and it could have been more. He got an entry at Aintree last season, but didn't go. The jockey would always be a concern, but if he went there this season he would have a huge chance. Nothing wrong with the runs from Now Ben, Queen Olivia and Garde Ville in 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Garde Ville not surprisingly was outpaced and then tired late on, but it was a good return. Ridgeway Flyer was beaten 49L by horses he would have been giving lumps of weight to in a handicap. Fair to say he is a long way from being a 137 horse!
I must admit I didn't back it, but how on earth Master Baker was allowed to go off 8/13 I will never know. The 1/3 he was last night was the right sort of price and it was no surprise that he bolted up by a huge margin. Bletchley Castle was miles clear of the rest and I guess he wont always bump into a horse as good as this, but I'm not sure he achieved a great deal here.
It has been a staggering start to the season with 12 of the 16 races I have tipped in being profitable. That sort of strike rate is impossible to keep up, but at least it means we have plenty in the bank should things go the other way. The next race isn't until Wednesday at Catterick.

A cracking weekend with some big prices landed and hopefully we can end February on a high as I have 2 bets for tonight and 1 for tomorrow.
Just the tips for now preview to follow later
East Thurrock v Torquay
This preview pretty much writes itself. East Thurrock are really bad and I will be amazed if they don't go down. The match report for their game against Hampton at the weekend made for some funny reading as the reporter tried to convey how poor and dull the game was. If Torquay turn up in the right frame of mind, and they should do given they are going for the title, this should be a comfortable win and they should cover the -1 handicap.
Hartley Wintney v Wimborne Town
Not a league I put up bets in too often, but the in form away side look a fair bet here. They have only lost once in their last 10 games and that has included getting a point against leaders Taunton and beating another title contender Met Police 3-0. The slight concern would be their away form, but otherwise it looks a solid bet. Their hosts have only won twice in their last 10 and they have been against poor sides in Walton Casuals (who have beaten them since as well) and on Saturday they beat Tiverton, but again they are a poor side. 
Lewes v Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge have had a very up and down season so far. They started of superbly and were top for a while. They then could hardly buy a win before coming out the other side and going 8 games unbeaten whilst wining 6 of them. They had their first lose on Saturday against Merstham, but they are flying themselves and put up a decent performance especially in the first half. Lewes have only won a couple in their last 10 matches and only picked up 2 points in their last 5 games. They just seem to be struggling at the moment and Angels look overpriced to bounce straight back from Saturday's defeat.
Torquay -1 2pts @ 6/5 with Unibet and 888
Wimborne Town 1pt @ 31/20 with Marathon
Tonbridge Angels 1pt @ 85/40 with BetVictor

I was pretty annoyed that Musselburgh lost their big Cheltenham trials meeting not because it meant we lost a Hunter Chase, but because I really fancied Wonderful Charm for the Edinburgh National. The race looked perfect for him and I think he is a well handicapped horse at the moment. That wasn't to be and he now turns his attention to Hunter Chases again and I think he should win this race fairly comfortably. Last season might look a bit disappointing at first glance as he was well beaten at Cheltenham and Aintree, but you can ignore those efforts because the ground was way too soft for him. Indeed Paul Nicholls in a question and answer session on Twitter tonight said he will only go to Cheltenham this year if it is good ground. The ground was over watered at Stratford and I think he showed in 2017 that Stratford isn't his track, but to be fair he ran pretty well in the circumstances to finish 3rd as he did in the race the year before. The Fontwell win in May came in a pretty weak race, but he won without coming out of first gear and it showed that when he gets his ground he still has plenty of ability. He will certainly get his ground here and you can be pretty certain that he will be fit given Nicholls was keen on his chances at Musselburgh before it got called off.
Most of the opposition is nothing to write home about. Upswing followed his 4th at Warwick up with a stinker of a run at Ludlow and clearly isn't a 127 horse at the moment. Boa Island has been 3rd in 3 Mens Opens this term but that is miles away from being good enough to beat Wonderful Charm and Flugzeug wouldn't win if he started now. That leaves the only serious rival as Forgotten Gold. He is actually rated 9lbs higher in the handicap and has to only carry 11-7 including his jockey's claim compared with Wonderful Charm's 12-4. On that of course he should be a good thing himself, but he is 13 now and hasn't run since October 2017. That day at Wincanton he was a good 2nd to Mr Mix who I saw win at Charing on Sunday. At the age of 13 though off such a long lay-off I struggle to believe he is going to be anywhere near up to running to that mark and for me I can't see him being good enough to beat Wonderful Charm.
If it did come up good at Cheltenham next month Wonderful Charm probably wouldn't be without a chance and I am not surprised he has been backed into 8/11 for this race. I actually think that is still value because he only has one other horse to beat and I am pretty confident he will do so.
Wonderful Charm 3pts @ 8/11 with Bet365 and most other bookies

I didn't do too badly with picking out games that would be on last week, but sadly Stockport were the only winners although at least they kept losses down given the big price they were. Dorking came good in mid-week which pretty much covered Saturday's losses. No weather issues this weekend so unlike the horse racing everything should be on.
Aldershot v Eastleigh
Aldershot holding Dagenham to a draw was costly a couple of weeks ago, but I think there is value in opposing them again here. I wrote in that preview that Dagenham should only need 1 goal and it wasn't quite enough in the end, but the fact remains that Aldershot aren't heavy scorers and there is every chance Eastleigh again will only need 1 goal. Eastleigh's away form had been strong and then they only got 1 point in 4 away league games, but they bounced back a couple of weeks ago when winning at Bromley. They are in play-off contention and I'm still not sure that Waddock is going to be able to keep Aldershot up.
Chesterfield v Halifax
I shouldn't have given up on backing the draw in Chesterfield games as in the league they have drawn 4 of their 7 games since they beat Salford which was the last time I backed the draw in their matches. Those 4 have come in their last 5 and the win was only against Aldershot. They were poor in the FA Trophy last weekend and although it might not have been a priority it was still concerning they lost to Brackley so easily. Halifax have drawn their last 5 games and you can add another two if looking at their last 9 league matches. The stats clearly tell you that the draw is value here and it has to be worth a play.
Wrexham v Dagenham & Redbridge
God knows what is going on at Wrexham as yet again losing their manager to the Football League looks set to derail their efforts to get into the Football League. Last season they imploded when Keates left and this season things have gone downhill after Sam Ricketts move. To be fair that's not entirely true as they continued in good form to start with, but since the turn of the year they have been desperate losing 4 on the bounce and managing to only beat a Maidenhead side who managed 1 shot the whole game, 1-0. Another managerial change has happened and inexperience Bryan Hughes has come in. Apparently he is looking to improve their attacking which goes without saying given they struggle for goals. All the upheaval can't be good though and Dagenham have the potential to punish them. I really do have a love/hate relationship with Dagenham this season, but 19/5 really is too big a price to not back them here.
Nuneaton v Boston (National League North)
Pretty safe to say that Nuneaton will be playing Step 3 football next season and despite being taken over things still don't seem great off the pitch. On the pitch they have won just once at home all season and they have picked up just 2 points in their last 8 games. Boston are on the edge of the play-offs and they are pretty solid away from home this season and only lost 1-0 at Spennymoor in their last away game. That is their only defeat in their last 5 matches as well and an odds against quote looks too big for me here.
Hyde United v Matlock (Evo-Stik Northern Premier)
Not only have Matlock won just 4 games on the road this season they are in poor form overall. They have picked up just two points in their last 6 games and although they are only just behind their hosts in the table they are clearly struggling of late. Hyde have been in good form of late and take out the loss to Bamber Bridge their last 9 league matches have seen good performances even in the other two games they have lost which have come against good sides. They look a bet at 6/5.
Spennymoor v Bradford Park Avenue & North Ferriby v Workington
The BPA game got called off last week, but they are worth opposing here against a bang in form Spennymoor side who have won their last 4 league matches and have lost just two of their last 10. BPA have only 2 points in their last 6 games and as I pointed out last week they have let players go as it looks like the club don't really want promotion. The home side have gone odds on now, but I think they are worth doubling up with Workington. Now Workington are 1 from bottom and North Ferriby are bottom in the Evo-Stik Northern Premier, but it really should be an away win. North Ferriby have won 2 lost 22 and have a goal difference of -51. Workington are showing signs of possibly being able to stay up and they do have games in hand to help as well. North Ferriby have lost 9 on the bounce and have conceded at least twice in all of them. Workington have won their last 2 and only lost on of their last 4. This is a must win game for them if they are going to stay up whereas North Ferriby know their fate already. The double pays 257/100 with Marathon.
Eastleigh 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon & William Hill
Chesterfield v Halifax draw 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 19/5 with Betfred
Boston 2pts @ 53/50 with Marathon
Hyde United 2pts @ 6/5 with BetVictor
Spennymoor/Workington 1pt double @ 257/100 with Marathon
 
 

January was very up and down to say the least, but it was good to end it with a winner on Tuesday night especially as it got one over the Asian markets which is always pleasing especially after the last couple of bets I had opposed them on had been losers. No doubt the weather is going to get in the way this weekend so I won't go into too much detail as I doubt all these will go ahead, but there are 7 teams I like. 
Dover v Gateshead
Gateshead lost their leading striker to Chesterfield this week and they weren't happy as they are currently under a transfer embargo so they can't sign a replacement. They haven't won in 6 league games now and they travel to a Dover side who have lost just once in their last 10. Hopefully this game has a better chance than most of beating the weather given the location and Marathon's 6/4 looks a decent price on a home win.
Maidenhead v Dagenham & Redbridge
It is a bit of a love hate relationship with Dagenham at the moment as they cost us last week when conceding against a goal shy Aldershot. Even so they look overpriced at 9/5 with Bet365 to beat a Maidenhead who are going to struggle to stay up. Granted they were a bit unlucky to not get a point against Solihull in their last home game, but they then went to a Wrexham side on a poor run of form and managed just 1 shot in the whole game. Granted they will probably be a bit more attacking minded here, but the away side are value to pick up the 3 points.
Bradford Park Avenue v Leamington 
The only game BPA have not lost in their last 5 was when I tipped Blyth against them at a big price and Blyth missed an injury time penalty to win the game. Although the board claimed they do want promotion their actions spoke louder than words as they have let 3 of their best players leave and it seems they know they can't really sustain a club at National League level. They obviously wouldn't turn promotion down should they win it, but they would obviously prefer it if they stayed at this level. Granted Leamington were winning their first game in 10 on Saturday when they beat Altrincham 3-0, but that was a hell of a performance and they have drawn 6 of their last 10 games so it isn't like they are losing all the time. 11/4 with Bet365 on the away win looks more than fair.
Brightlingsea Regent v Whitehawk (Bostik Premier)
Backing Whitehawk didn't quite pay off last week as they had to come from 2 down, but they conceded after 3 minutes and that obviously always changes things when a team scores that earlier. The fact they fought back proves they are improving and although Brightlingsea have been on a strong run of form I think the away side are worth a small bet at a big price.
Bishops Stortford v Merstham (Bostik Premier)
The away side are now unbeaten in 10 league games after beating Worthing on Wednesday night. It isn't as if they have had an easy run of fixtures either as they have played plenty of the teams around them at the top of the table including the top 2 teams. The home team have lost 6 of their last 8 and the two wins were against teams in the bottom 4. 6/4 looks a big price on an away win.
Hartley Wintney v Wimborne Town (Evo-Stik Southern Prem South)
The away side are on an impressive run of form losing just once in their last 9 league games including drawing with top of the table Taunton last Saturday and beating 3rd place Met Police 3-0 on Tuesday night. The home side have won just once in their last 7 games and an away win is attractively priced.
Harrogate v Stockport (FA Trophy)
This game is almost certain to go ahead as Harrogate play on a 3G pitch and I fancy there could be an upset. Both are going well in their respective leagues, but I think Stockport are more than capable of winning this. I don't think there is as much between these two sides as the prices suggest and at nearly 4/1 Stockport are a value play.
Dover 2pts @ 6/4 with Marathon
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365
Leamington 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365
Whitehawk 1pt @ 103/20 with Marathon
Merstham 2pts @ 6/4 with Marathon
Wimborne Town 2.5pts @ 83/50 with Marathon
Stockport 1pt @ 39/10 with Marathon

Another big field for Hereford's Hunter Chase and another fascinating race. This race produced plenty of winners last season and there is a chance it might well turn out to be a race to follow closely again. I have done a rundown of the runners in racecard order.   Flaming Charmer - Ex Colin Tizzard trained 11yo who was sold for £18k last month. Was a lucky winner at Chepstow in November off a mark of 121 and it was the 2nd year running he was winning that race. His wins have been over shorter, but he stays this trip and the conditions will be fine for him. Not sure he will be good enough to win this though.   Full Trottle - A bit of a favourite of mine because he is a really solid horse who nearly always gives his running. He looked the winner of this race last year until not quite seeing the distance out as well as Shotavodka. He had a run prior to that race last season although it was in early December so there was still a fair old break before this race. After this race last year he ran at Larkhill and didn't see the race out so was given a breathing op and it seems to have done the trick because he won on his next start at Ludlow and followed that up with a really good 2nd to Mr Mercurial at Cheltenham where he reversed form with Shotavodka. If he is fit and ready he has a fair chance of going one better.   Rouge Et Blanc - Was 6th in this race last year running pretty well before going to Lingfield and winning a fairly weak contest. He was then 2nd at Leicester over 2m before pulling up in the Aintree Foxhunter. Will imagine that he will run well again, but every chance he will come on for the run as he did last year.   Shotavodka - A good winner of this race last year and looked like he was going to win the Walrus at Haydock before he tired badly on the run in. He was stuffed in the Foxhunters', beaten by Galway Jack at Southwell and then finished weakly again behind Full Trottle at Cheltenham. He has had two runs this season and his finishing effort has not been great in either. Now he did win first up at Barbury, but he flagged in the closing stages and it was a race he ought to have won anyway. Earlier this month he was 3rd at Larkhill and the in running comment says he finished very weakly. I have watched the video of the race and he has caught up the first two nicely coming to the last, but in the end there wasn't a great deal there. His finishing effort worried me going into this race last year and he proved me wrong, but he could be that he beat a horse who had breathing issues and I can't help thinking at least one horse is going to be too strong in the finish.   Special Wells - Last win came two years ago off 117 and showed very little after that. Made his pointing debut at Chaddesley Corbett last month in a Ladies Open and didn't show a great deal when pulling up so is hard to fancy here.   Always On The Run - There was a fair bit to like about his run behind Hazel Hill last month at Chaddesley Corbett. He made the running and was still in contention until fairly late on which was no mean feat given what the winner did on Monday. This slight drop in trip will help as well. The slight concern has to be the going. He has mainly kept to good and was a non runner because of soft ground once, but then he was 2nd at Leicester on heavy ground on his next start and has won on soft in the past. I would imagine if connections felt the ground wasn't suitable they wouldn't run him and I actually think he holds a solid e/w chance at double figure odds on the back of his run last time.   Full Print - Looks likely to be outclassed in this line up   O Ceallaigh - Strange how this quite often happens in a Hunter Chase that you go back and a couple of horses have run against each other in a random race and he was 5th behind Vedettariat in a Novice Hurdle at Navan in 2015. Always used to make the running although they tried to hold him up more in his final few starts in Ireland. Made the running on his first start for new connections at Clifton, but faded and was well beaten in the end. Every chance he will come on for that effort, but I just wonder about how strong a stayer he is and this race is stronger than that one. Wouldn't surprise me if he hit the frame though with Biddick on top.   O Maonlai - Flattered by his two 2nds in Hunter Chases at Exeter and Newton Abbot last April although he did run pretty well at Buckfastleigh on his seasonal return in November. That was 66 days ago now though so the benefit of that run maybe lost. Will appreciate the shorter trip though and has an outside chance of hitting the frame.   Richmond - Been fairly consistent in Hunter Chases in the last couple of years, but he hasn't won one yet and highly unlikely to break his duck here as the trip looks on the short side for him nowadays.   Tinker Time - Didn't really show a great deal when he was last seen in 2017 and looks pretty hard to fancy.   Toowoomba - Impossible to give a chance to based on his previous rules form and his pointing exploits.   Vedettariat - Has been the main early gamble of the race so far despite not having seen the racecourse in 675 days. I saw him run in his first two points and I can't say I was overly impressed. He won at Chaddesley Corbett in December 2016, but he didn't jump great and I don't think he beat a great deal. Sybarite did what he always does to finish 2nd and the favourite Kyber Kim was given the usual terrible ride by his jockey and never got involved. Next up he went to Horseheath and again didn't jump well and finished 2nd to a pretty useful horse to be fair. His next win was at Charing and that was a pretty poor affair and he then won at Kingston Blount where Full Trottle also won on the card. They both won pretty easily and Vedettariat was a second quicker, but he also carried a stone less. He then was well beaten on his final start and had too miss the whole of last season. I greatly respect trainer and jockey and the yards horses are bang in form so he will be pretty fit I am sure, but he will have to jump a hell of a lot better than in his points and you can pick all sorts of holes in his form. I wouldn't be surprised if he did go and win, but at the same time I don't really fancy him.   Village Vic - Another one of Maxwell's buy's, but this time he only has a share of it and it is still running in the colours of his long term owner. Goes without saying if he runs to anywhere near his old form he wins this, but he showed nothing last season and he is surely nowhere near a 145 horse at the moment. What I will say is that the trainer's horses were not in good form last season and plenty have returned to do well this year so perhaps we will see an improved showing, but for me the percentage call has to be to oppose.   Summary - Village Vic obviously is the best horse in the race on previous form, but he has to be taken on for me. I'm sure Shotavodka will give it a good go to win this race for the 2nd year running, but his finishing effort is always a concern and I am not sure Vedettariat is good enough on his first run for so long. I like the chances of Full Trottle as he is so consistent and if fit and ready first time out then he has a great chance of winning this so he is one bet. The other bet is going to be Always On The Run as I thought it was a promising seasonal return behind Hazel Hill and this shorter trip should help him. He might get taken on for the lead with O Cellaigh, but I thought Always On The Run is capable of seeing him off. O Maonlai might be capable of running well at big odds.   Full Trottle 1pt @ 9/2 with Betfair, Betfred and Paddy Power Always On The Run 0.75pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, Betfair and BetVictor

Good to be back to form on Boxing Day as it can be a tricky day with some surprising results and although there were some across the divisions at least I found 4 winners out of 6 and finally I land a 4pt selection with Woking. I have 7 bets for Saturday.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Barnet
I must admit after they got lucky against Hartlepool when I put Dagenham up and then only drew against a ten man Halifax at home when I put them up as a 4pt tip I wondered if Dagenham were as good as their form suggested. Of course after that Halifax effort they have now beaten Ebbsfleet in the Trophy and then Salford and Leyton Orient in the space of a few days. Not only that but they came from a goal down against both of them. I just hope that I am not putting them up too late, but there is no way they should be as big as there to beat Barnet at home and I would have them no bigger than 5/4 at the very least. Barnet have lost 4 of their last 6 league games including to Boreham Wood on Boxing Day and Dagenham should win this if they can back up the last two wins.
Ebbsfleet v Eastleigh
Eastleigh blew a 2 goal lead on Boxing Day when I put them up against Havant, but they did go down to 10 men which wouldn't have helped late on. They should have seen the game out still and will be disappointed in that point. Even so as I highlighted in the Boxing Day preview Eastleigh's away form is strong and I think they are over priced to beat Ebbsfleet. Granted Ebbsfleet have only lost one of their last 10 games, but they lost to Fylde last Saturday and they haven't been playing the strongest sides in the division. This will be tougher than most of those 10 games and Eastleigh look a sporting play at the prices.
Havant & Waterlooville v Bromley
As mentioned above Havant got a point against Eastleigh and they might just be capable of getting all 3 points against a badly out of form Bromley side. They have lost 6 of their last 9 league games and have won only 2 of those against Hartlepool and Maidstone last Saturday. They have won just twice away in the league all season and lost again on Boxing Day at Sutton. Havant's only two defeats in their last 9 games have come against Dagenham and Salford and they have been pretty solid at home this season. They should be favs for this game in my view.
East Thurrock v Dartford
East Thurrock have won just 4 games all season and scored 17 goals in the process. They are clearly a bad side and lost again to Concord (whose away form has not been good) on Boxing Day. Dartford will fancy their chances of bouncing back from a 2-0 at Welling. Their only other defeat in their last 7 league games came against Torquay and they played well in that game before going down 2-0. They are beating the lesser sides in the division and hopefully they can do so again here.
Weston-Super-Mare v Bath
I had the great pleasure of watching Weston v Gloucester on Saturday and that is said with tongue firmly in cheek. It was a dire game played between two terrible sides. It is no surprise that Weston are bottom of the table as they are a poor team who really struggled to do anything great with the ball in the final 3rd of the pitch. It has been so long since Gloucester won a game in the league I have forgotten what it feels like and the fact Weston couldn't do anything much with the possession we gave them says plenty about how good they are. Bath are unbeaten in 6 away games now and did well to come back from 2 down on Boxing Day against Chippenham to draw 2-2 and then hold on with 10 men. Bath really should be beating them on Saturday and I struggle to see how they can be odds against. 
Southport v Alfreton
Southport continued their flying form on Boxing Day beating Chester 3-0. As I have written recently they are finally showing why I put them up to win the league and they are easily one of the best sides in the division at the moment. Alfreton did finally get a win after a long time on Boxing Day winning at Boston, but this will be tougher and Southport should probably be odds on to take this so the 5/4 is value for me.
Stockport v Kidderminster
Amazing that Kidderminster's only win in the league in their last 6 matches was when I took them on the other day against Brackley. I then backed them against Curzon last Saturday as I thought that win showed they were back in decent form, but they clearly aren't as a point against Curzon wasn't great and then they lost to Hereford on Boxing Day. Stockport's only loss in their last 10 league games came against Blyth, who themselves have only lost once in their last 10 league games. They had a cracking win against Altricham on Boxing Day and they look a good price to win again on Saturday in this game against two former league clubs.
Dagenham 3pts @ 15/8 with Marathon and Bet365
Eastleigh 1pt @ 43/20 with Marathon
Havant 1pt @ 179/100 with Marathon
Dartford 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor
Bath 3pts @ 57/50 with Marathon
Southport 2pts @ 5/4 with BetVictor and Betfred
Stockport 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor

The last two Saturday's have been poor and hopefully we can get some Christmas money on Saturday especially as I fancy some of the bets strongly. The Wrexham price has not surprisingly shortened although they have for some reason drifted back out slightly. I still think the price is value at the current odds if you haven't got involved. It doesn't seem that Aldershot are going to sign anyone although they are hoping they will have 11 fit players. Team news will be very interesting that is for sure. There are 6 other bets.   Alfreton v Stockport (National League North)
I really don't get the price of Stockport here as they should be firm favourites for me. Stockport are flying at the moment and have only lost one league game in their last 10. They thumped Ashton 6-0 on Tuesday night and prior to that the beat bang in form Spennymoor away from home. In between those two games they also won in the FA Trophy in a big local derby against Altrincham. On the other hand Alfreton are looking in shocking form at the moment. The only two teams they have beaten in their last 10 league games have been the bottom two sides in the division Ashton and Nuneaton. Last time out Spennymoor put 7 past them and they are looking a poor side at the moment. 2/1 is available if you can get it, but even the next best of 7/4 with Betfred looks a cracking price.   Ashton v Southport (National League North) As mentioned above Ashton are in the bottom 2 at the moment and have only won 1 and drawn 1 in their last 9 league games and that 6-0 thumping by Stockport on Tuesday was their 4th loss on the bounce. I was a little surprised by the strength of Southport's team on Wednesday in a County Cup game given they played the Tranmere match on Monday, but I guess it beats training and of course none of them played in the FA Trophy game last Saturday. As I have mentioned plenty in recent weeks they have shown massive improvement and this looks a great game for them to pick up another 3 points in. 21/20 with BetVictor is the best price.   Kidderminster v Curzon Ashton (National League North) I took Kiddie on a couple of weeks ago as they had been out of form, but they bounced back in good fashion to beat Brackley 2-0. That is their only game so far in December so as much as they will be fresh they might also be rusty, but they had two weeks off before the Brackley so hopefully that won't get in the way. Freshness over this busy period could be crucial and they start off with a very winnable game. Curzon haven't won in 6 league games now and their last 2 league games have both been away losses as well. I think the home side should be odds on here is 103/100 with Marathon is the right side of value for me.   Concord Rangers v Chippenham (National League South) I mentioned the other week about Concord's superb home form ahead of their game against Hampton and they duly won 4-0 which took their home league record to won 8 drawn 1 and lost 1.They are worth backing at odds against in this match as Chippenham's form has taken a dip having lost their last two league games to Weston and Hungerford. On their day they are capable of beating most in the division, but they look of their game at the moment. Their away form has seen them win only 3 as well so it is all about the home team for me here.   Truro City v Wealdstone (National League South) Take out a shocker when losing 4-0 to Oxford City and Truro are one of the most improved sides in the division. That is their only defeat in their last 7 league games and they thumped Weston in the FA Trophy last weekend. I would make them favourites to beat a Wealdstone side who are struggling for victories at the moment. They have only won 2 of their last 8 games and one of those was against Gloucester City a game I was at. It was a pretty poor game played out by two fairly poor sides so I am not hugely surprised they have struggled for wins since then. They were dumped out of the Trophy by lower league opposition last week and Truro look in better nick right now.    Marine v Farsley Celtic (Evo-Stik Northern Premier) Farsley certainly preformed with credit against Telford last week in the Trophy and they showed they could match teams in the league above. They sit in 3rd in position and given the games they have in hand over the teams above they are in prime position for the top spot. They have won 7 of their last 9 league games and drawn the other two. It should be another 3 points here and I can't believe that Farsley are odds against. It has been 11 league games since Marine last picked up 3 points and they blew a 2-1 lead last week. I have only seen Bet365 price this game up so better than 11/10 might appear, but that looks a good price.   Stockport 4pts @ 7/4 with Betfred Southport 2pts @ 21/20 with BetVictor Kidderminster 3pts @ 103/100 with  Marathon Concord 2pts @ 117/100 with Marathon Truro 2pts @ 23/10 with BetVictor Farsley Celtic 3pts @ 11/10 with Bet365

Two poor Saturday's on the trot which is disappointing, but hopefully like last Tuesday we can get some of it back again.
Havant & Waterlooville v Dover
I was surprised by the team Dover put out on Saturday as they rested quite a few players and they were lucky to get a replay scoring a 2nd very late on. I put Dover up as a bet for the Trophy, but clearly it doesn't seem a priority. They might play a stronger team here as it might be viewed as playing 90 minutes is better than training, but I think Havant are worth backing as they should win this if Dover put out the same side they did on Saturday and at least it covers the outright bet. 
Maidenhead v Oxford City
This game might not go ahead as the pitch was clearly in a right mess for the game to be called off after 75 minutes. City were 1 up and looking like being my only winner of the day on Saturday and they are only a little shorter than the best price available on Saturday so it seems worth backing them again as the reasons from Saturday are obviously the same as for Tuesday night.
Dorchester v Swindon Supermarine and Stratford v Coalville
Swindon do come into the game against Dorchester on the back of a 5-2 win over Basingstoke, but Dorchester continued their superb recent form by beating Eastbourne 4-0 in the FA Trophy on Saturday. That is a hell of a performance and things are really clicking for them right now as I pointed out last week. Swindon's away form is not great as they have lost 4 of their last 5 away league games and the only thing stopping Dorchester winning this is if their is a hangover from Saturday's win, but I think it will mean confidence is high and they will want to carry on their superb form. Stratford are another team in great form and they have lost just one league game in their last 10 and they have won 7 of those. Granted they were stuffed by Fylde in the Trophy on Saturday, but Fylde put out a strong side so their is nothing to be ashamed of with that result. Coalville had a tough game as well as they went to now top of the table Stourbridge and lost 4-2. That made it 3 away league defeats out of 4 games for them and it will be tough for them to get anything out of a bang in form Stratford. Both these sides are around even money so it makes sense to do the double which pays around 3/1 with Marathon.
Havant & Waterlooville 1pt @ 59/50 with Marathon
Oxford City 1pt @ 5/2 with BetVictor
Dorchester/Stratford 1pt double at 2.98/1 with Marathon

No you aren't seeing things this is the thread for Saturday (there maybe mid-week bets to follow in addition to the FA Cup one once more prices go up), but I have a rare early bet as I think the price is going to go by the time I do the rest of my bets.
Aldershot v Wrexham
Having opposed Aldershot yesterday it was annoying that it ended up a 3-3 draw as Bedford got very close to landing the 10/1 bet on them. They now replay on Tuesday night which isn't going to help ahead of this game, but as I mentioned in Saturday's preview the home side have a lot of injuries at the moment and things are so bad that they could only name 2 subs! It seems manager Gary Waddock might be on his way to Bristol Rovers, but he made a suggestion earlier in the season that there were issues off the pitch and it seems they have no money to get anymore players in. As mentioned on Saturday they are on a shocking run of form and have even lost their last two home league games having been so strong at home earlier in the season. They face a Wrexham side who have only lost to Leyton Orient in the league in their last 10 games and saw off a useful Boston side easily in the FA Trophy on Saturday. For me Wrexham should be odds on and the 5/4 with Skybet (if you can get on) is a big price in my view. I would have them about 4/6 for this before the possibility of things getting worse for them in the Bedford match on Tuesday night and the fact Waddock might be on his way. The one slight concern is that Wrexham have drawn 4 of their last 5 away league games, but this is just the type of game they have to win if they are going to keep tabs with Orient and Salford and Aldershot look there for the taking at the moment.
Wrexham 4pts @ 5/4 with Skybet

Very good point Darran, there's a sizeable minority out there that would call someone's tipping 'unrealistic' if they could 'only' get 11/5 on what was put up as 9/4 This also happens with the PL Horse Racing Tips, some have shortened by a point or two by the time I back them, some drift and end up winning. These 'terribly misleading' prices have ended up making us over £27k, shocking stuff by these so called tipsters that cost us nothing
Darran's tips have made roughly +27pts of profit since the first week of November, amazing knowledge of the lower leagues !

Cheers Darran...just for info, you mean Met Police in the bet summary, not H&R the second time

to PL @10lengthsclear and @blueboy199