keef75
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Posts posted by keef75
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I know I've made it much more complicated than it is on the sheet but I'm loathe to change it now as it's a bit of a beast with all the different staking systems! But you can see how I messed up. Twice. Also having to put '13to8' in the cell because Excel so helpfully changes '13/8' to '13 Aug'!!
Anyway, I'm going to create a new thread in Betting Systems and Strategies to continue this as I seem to have hijacked this one - apologies xtc12.
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@harry_rag here are a few lines from my spreadsheet - I'd be grateful if you could have a quick look and make sure I'm on the right track here! You can see why I'm getting confused by the SP/BFSP (Betfair SP) columns!
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5 hours ago, Zemside said:
Any chance of sharing this system with us mere mortals in the future?
Possibly... Whenever I go public with these things they always take a sharp turn for the worse for some reason! This one is closer to the holy grail than I've ever been before. I know hindsight is a brilliant thing but I wish I'd started with real money in June like I had intended. I'd be over £350 up now from the starting bank of £1000 with only £40 risked before going into profit.
Working out the selections is easy, it takes just a couple of minutes a few times a week, but there's one criterion that needs you to be watching just before the off so I have to make a note of them and then ensure I'm able to check live. Maybe I'll start a new thread and post the selections sometime in the future.
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On 9/6/2019 at 4:12 PM, keef75 said:
I've been away from here for quite a while since stopping working on the rdata site but I've still been following a few things. I have a system that has, so far, produced 264 selections (horse racing). It has a strike rate of just under 46% with an average win SP of 1.77 (1.89 on Betfair).
To clarify (because I still mess up with decimal prices!) the average SP of the winning bets are 2.77 (roughly
11/47/4 as pointed out by my fellow punter below!!!) and 2.89, I'd already removed the 1 for the stake in my calculations which is why I foolishly quoted them in my original post. I wanted to clarify because there's no way a 46% SR at 1.77 is going to produce a profit to level stakes! ? -
Here's a chart showing 6 of the 9 plans, top to bottom:
Ratchet Square Root using Betfair SP
Ratchet Square Root using Standard SP
Square Root
1-3-2-6
Ratchet
Level StakesIt's clear that the bigger the risks the bigger the rises and falls. This is the bit I'm most uncertain of - which one to use when I start putting money on?
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1 hour ago, Xtc12 said:
@keef75 how did you calculate this please.
There are a few websites you can get this from, if you search for 'losing run based on strike rate'.
These are the figures I have:
Strike Rate Max Losing Run per 1000 bets 5 135 10 66 15 43 20 31 25 24 30 19 35 16 40 14 45 12 50 10 55 9 60 8 65 7 70 6 75 5 80 4 85 4 90 3 95 2 -
I've been away from here for quite a while since stopping working on the rdata site but I've still been following a few things. I have a system that has, so far, produced 264 selections (horse racing). It has a strike rate of just under 46% with an average win SP of 1.77 (1.89 on Betfair). Longest losing run is 9 and the longest winning run is 6. Calculated potential longest losing run is 13 per 1000 bets based on the strike rate. I've played with many staking plans and, as I know the system makes good profit to level stakes, I'd like to know which plan would work best in this situation in the long run.
I have the following (all from a starting bank of £1000):
Level stakes (£10)
26.84% ROI - Current Profit £708 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £2640
32.23% ROI - Current Profit £850 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £2640Multiplier on loss (x1.2 previous stake)
25.21% ROI - Current Profit £858 - Total Staked £3405Percentage bank (1% of bank always)
25.79% ROI - Current Profit £969 - Total Staked £3758Square root (base stake of £10 plus the square root of the current bank minus start bank)
23.79% ROI - Current Profit £3052 - Total Staked £128311-3-2-6 Staking (based on a 1% stake)
27.36% ROI - Current Profit £2803 - Total Staked £10246Ratchet (1% of current bank increasing over time but never reducing)
26.02% ROI - Current Profit £1017 - Total Staked £3909Ratchet square root (combination of two above methods)
24.88% ROI - Current Profit £4028 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £16193
27.39% ROI - Current Profit £4873 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £17794The plans that end up the highest obviously have more risk as some stakes reached £200+, especially in the 1-3-2-6 plan. On the Ratchet Square Root plans the current stakes are £115 and £130 for Normal SP and Betfair SP respectively. Betfair figures stated above include a 5% commission deduction.
I haven't put any real money on this yet, I've just been following it closely. The last 2.5 months have been good producing ROIs in excess of 50% for level stakes and a couple of others plans.
Hopefully OP can take something from this but I'd be interested in reading others' comments too. Cheers.
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Results and fixtures have been added up to Sunday 24th Feb. I'm not around for the next week so I'll update the site next on Monday, 4th March. Happy punting!
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Results data for 11th to 17th February has been uploaded.
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Results data has been added for the last week (I'm still waiting for yesterday's results to be published on the Cybet site). I try to upload the upcoming matches to the site each day as that's the time-consuming bit taken care of if you're following a system - it saves having to manually trawl through the matches etc. Once we know which matches are included then it's not too much of a problem not seeing the results on the site for a few days, I hope.
It is becoming a bit of a chore keeping the site updated but I will continue and don't have any plans to stop in the near future. I am going away again at the end of February so there will be no updates to the site then but I will process the data when I return at the beginning of March.
Mexico issue is still not fixed as I just haven't had time to work on it recently - too many other projects on the go!
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I still haven't managed to fix the Mexico issue but I'll try and work on it this week.
All data is now up to date.
- Xtc12 and Rivilearner
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Hi, this looks really interesting. Can i ask where you get your historical data from? Have you been recording just since the new seasons started? I have a load of historical stuff, not sure if correct score is on there without digging it all out but I know I have it in the data I've been collecting since Aug 18. I've been updating my own website since then with data going back a few years. We've found some interesting data sets. I'll be following your journey here with interest.
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While I was looking at the data today I've spotted an issue with the way the number of matches is calculated. There's no problem with the past data but the new seasons are starting for some countries (South America, Japan and Scandinavia) and the system is throwing out false matches, particularly for Mexico at the moment who have just started the new 2019 season as it's still looking at the previous season dates. I can't just change these dates as it will no longer pull through those old matches and results so I'm looking at other options to fix it.
The same issue is going to cascade through the leagues as the year progresses but I've caught it early and can hopefully remedy it. I'm not sure of a solution at present so this post is more of a 'beware of false eligible matches' notice.
Some of the affected countries are:
Mexico - new season just started
Japan - will start in February
Norway - will start in March etc.Hopefully a solution will be in place long before the new Japanese season starts but please ignore any Mexico matches for now.
I'll update again once I've sorted this.
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Results up to yesterday have been added and tomorrow's matches have been uploaded too.
Hope you all have a very Happy and Profitable New Year!
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@Betmakavely that's excellent news - great start! What was the price for your winning treble?
I've uploaded results for 26th and matches for today, there are only a few matches today. There are no matches in our leagues for tomorrow.
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Hi @Betmakavely. I've had a quick look at your email, it's a busy time for me (and most people I'd imagine) at the moment so when my feet touch the ground I'll get back to you properly and make any necessary adjustments to the site.
Good luck with your live testing - I've just uploaded the Boxing Day fixtures which will show up in the eligible matches section tomorrow. There are no matches of interest today or tomorrow so I haven't uploaded anything for them.
I'd like to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Thanks for all your kind words of encouragement over the past few months.
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On 18/12/2018 at 12:37 AM, darksidersfk said:
Can u pls explain a little better than OP how u did this ?
It might be a good strat....I second that, @footysystems - if you're around and have the time it'd be good to have a better understanding of how this works. If I can see some value in it I could possibly include it on my rdata site to check past performance. Cheers.
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Thanks for replying, @Rivilearner. The one I've been following hasn't done too well recently either, no huge losses but just kind of stagnating. I'm going to keep following it on paper for the time being though. I'll keep updating the site.
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Just checking that some people are still using the data on the site?
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1 hour ago, liero1 said:
About your comment - I always set filters to level stakes. If a system doesn't look decent with flat stakes I wouldn't touch it with any other staking strategy.
Absolutely, that's what I'm looking at too. The multiplier will boost profits as long as the losing streaks aren't too long.
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I'm still watching at the moment. The main system I'm looking at is the 'K1 MULTI DRAWS V2 MODIFIED 2'.
The historical data produced some good results but that was because I used the filters to produce a decent return. What I'm watching for now is a continuing trend. Since I've been adding the daily data (around the middle of August) the profits have been quite small on this system - you can see its performance for this period here - https://bit.ly/2Da7P1c
Because of the increasing stake on a losing day it is showing a profit of £92 (based on an initial £10 stake) and a ROI of 10.75%. To level stakes it's still in profit, albeit much smaller, but only 4.5% ROI. Nothing really to write home about at the moment.
The number of bets on 27th October put the balance down to around £770 from £1000, as all bets are ideally placed at the same time due to kick-off times, which is a potentially steep loss at such an early stage in the system. Fortunately there were two winners which limited the losses although it would've been a test for the old sphincter!!
I'd be interested to hear if anyone else has used the data for live betting.
I've added matches for the weekend and Monday so the eligible upcoming matches will be available for the next few days. Results will be published daily as per usual.
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Data is now up to date with upcoming matches added until Thursday.
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We're all up to date now with the exception of Tuesday's results which aren't available yet. Hopefully I'll be back to updating the data every day now.
Keef's Horsey Holy Grail
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
After feeling bad about hijacking someone else's thread in this part of the forum I thought it would be best to start afresh. I have something that I have been following for a while - a horse racing selection system. I know, if you've seen one you've seen them all blah blah blah. Well, prepare to be amazed haha!
So far there have been 265 selections between January 2017 and today, mainly around the weekends and big festivals etc.. Here are some stats:
Strike rate: 46%
Longest losing run: 9
Longest winning run: 6
Average WIN SP: 2.76 (Betfair: 2.88)
Point profit to level stakes: +71.76 (Betfair: +86.00)
I'm not going to say too much about the selection process - there are 8 base rules - but I will post the selections here. The only rule you need to know is that the selection MUST START CLEAR FAVOURITE so having access to Betfair or whatever is essential to be able to watch the prices just before the off. There will be cases where it's too close to call - in these situations I scrap the selection.
As for staking plans, this is where the aforementioned hijacked thread comes into play. I am currently looking at some quite aggressive plans.
I have the following figures for the first 264 selections (all from a starting bank of £1000):
Level stakes (£10)
26.84% ROI - Current Profit £708 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £2640
32.23% ROI - Current Profit £850 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £2640
Multiplier on loss (x1.2 previous stake)
25.21% ROI - Current Profit £858 - Total Staked £3405
Percentage bank (1% of bank always)
25.79% ROI - Current Profit £969 - Total Staked £3758
Square root (base stake of £10 plus the square root of the current bank minus start bank)
23.79% ROI - Current Profit £3052 - Total Staked £12831
1-3-2-6 Staking (based on a 1% stake)
27.36% ROI - Current Profit £2803 - Total Staked £10246
Ratchet (1% of current bank increasing over time but never reducing)
26.02% ROI - Current Profit £1017 - Total Staked £3909
Ratchet square root (combination of two above methods)
24.88% ROI - Current Profit £4028 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £16193
27.39% ROI - Current Profit £4873 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £17794
Incidentally, selection 265 also won but I can't be bothered updating all those figures!
The plans I will be following on here are:
Level stakes (for control purposes)
Square root
1-3-2-6
Ratchet square root
I'll be posting the selections below as I find them and also running totals. I'll keep the above totals going but I'll also start from £1000 again for the purposes of this thread so we can all follow it together. Sometimes there will be conditions for the bet such as 'only qualifies if there are at least 5 runners' or 'only qualifies if xxx is a NR' etc. Finally I've attached a graph showing how some of the plans have performed. Hopefully things will continue in a similar manner.
Last thing to say... I'm posting these selections for information only and I can't take any responsibility for losses that might occur from errors or otherwise. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance for any system! Let's go!