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keef75

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Posts posted by keef75

    Free Football Analysis Tool

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    I've been quiet on here over the past few days as I ended up spending all weekend creating a mobile game for the wife lol. Anyone play the old PopCap game, Alchemy?  Well I couldn't find it in the Play Store so I had to make my own.  That's all done now so it's back to the footy and horses.

    I think I've just cracked the 'multiplier on a loss' staking strategy so I'll be doing a bit more testing this evening to make sure everything is working as it should and then I'll copy it into the live version for everyone to have a play around with later. 

    I wanted it to increase the stake by a percentage on a loss but it had to have the same stake for each selection per day.  It was calculating the following day's stake based on the last selection of the day - if it was a winner the stake would revert to base stake, if it was a loser the stake would increase according to the multiplier regardless of if the day ended in profit or loss.

    However, I've now managed to group the days' bets so that any profit (or break even) will reset the stake for the following day.  I'll post another message later this evening after I've copied it into rdata.

    Free Football Analysis Tool

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    I've added all the data between 27th August and 8th September so we're up to date now.  You can use the orange 'Expand Date Range' button to quickly include the new data in a loaded set to see how it has performed over the last couple of weeks.

    Regarding the other thing I've been working on... it's a win/loss multiplier staking strategy, as can be seen on the horse racing part of the site, that can really boost the bank as long as the losing runs and the loss multiplier aren't too high.  However, with the horse racing version, because of the timing of the races and the need to follow it live, it's easy to control as it's on a per bet basis.  The football one has to be done on a per day basis because the outcome of one match might not be known before the next one starts (or multiple matches could start at the same time etc.) so you wouldn't know whether to multiply or reset to basic stake level.  The stake for each match in the day has to be the same.

    So with this in mind I set about writing something that does just that, however as it stands the stake for the next day's matches depends on the last result of the previous day.  If there are three matches in a day and the last one listed is a loser (and you have a loss multiplier set at greater than 1.00) then the stake for next day's matches will increase.  Alternatively, if the first two lose but the last one wins the stake will reset to the original base stake and start again.

    What are people's thoughts on this?  I've considered calculating the net win/loss per day and if it's positive reset but if it's negative keep multiplying until you reach the maximum stake amount.  I think this is the best way to do it but it's going to be an effort to code and I'm not looking forward to it! :eek

    I wanted to get the multiplier strategy copied into the live version on rdata today but I'm not happy with it as it stands so might hold off for a bit longer until we can decide what's best to do with it.

     

    Free Football Analysis Tool

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Xtc12 said:

    Thanks, great work by the way. :ok

    Thanks. 

    I've fixed that error.  There were only three saved sets that were affected and I've updated the number of bets and win rates in these to reflect the correction.  Much better win rates on them now! :)

    Please let me know if you spot anything else that isn't right.

    Free Football Analysis Tool

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Xtc12 said:

    @keef75 Sorry for being a bit trivial mate. In a few of the loaded sets I have come across an error for the accumulators. In the summary you have the years broken down into the number of bets each year, which is correct, but, in the stats above it your Total Bets is equal to the number of single bets not accumulator bets. 

    In a profitable system it will make the Win Rate and ROI better.

    Thanks for pointing that out, I'll take a look at it today and get it fixed.  I'm happy for people to let me know about errors like this as I want to ensure it's all working properly.  Accurate win rates and ROIs are very important!

    Free Football Analysis Tool

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    I've added the results for the weekend along with today's matches.  The data was only available this morning.  Tomorrow's match data isn't complete yet so I'll try and add that later if I can.  I won't be adding anything else until 4th Sept after today.

    It's nice to see that other people are saving sets, I enjoy looking through them so please keep it up!  It makes all the hard work worthwhile.

    See you all soon!

    Free Football Analysis Tool

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, pmxpo said:

    I checked your site and didn't quite understand the prediction. Are all the tips BTTS?

    No, If you click on the blue 'Filters' button just above the results you'll see all the options you can play around with.  In the first drop-down box you can choose the bet type: home wins, draws, double chance, etc..  Choose that first and then change the other filters.  The best thing to do is to load up one of the saved sets and you can see what's going on, make small changes to see if you can improve it.

    Free Football Analysis Tool

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Xtc12 said:

    @keef75 I get no returns from BTTS when filtered. You might look when you get back. Thanks.

    @Xtc12, unfortunately there isn't much in the way of BTTS prices in the data that I managed to get hold of and if there aren't any prices for a particular match then it's not included in the output.  I should review it at some point and, if necessary, remove the BTTS options.

    Free Football Analysis Tool

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted · Edited by keef75

    I've modified the 'DRAW BESTIAL' set that I mentioned earlier by using the new selection analysis to further filter out the worst performing leagues etc.  It's called 'DRAW BESTIAL MODIFIED' and now has a win rate of 42.95% and a ROI of 38.30.  Because it's based on draws, where the odds are higher, this win rate is perfect for giving consistent returns. 

    It's ok to keep filtering out leagues that haven't done well in the past but I think a good indicator of how well a parameter set is doing is to look at the annual summary.  If it's making a profit year-on-year then the chances are it will keep doing so.

    When I get a spare 4 or 5 hours (that's how long it took to process 2016/17 season for the 51 leagues I have data for!!!) I'll add the data for the 2015/16 season and we can run these sets against even more data.

    Free Football Analysis Tool

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted · Edited by keef75

    Thanks, Riv.  I'll try my best but can't promise as I have a busy few days coming up before I go.

    I have added something else though, it's a selection analysis (only for level-stakes at the moment) which will show at the bottom of the page.  It shows the list of leagues (that you have selected) and how many matches in each resulted in a win/loss based on your search criteria.  It also shows a breakdown by league position difference.

    Probably best just to have a look as it's self-explanatory when you see it.  It'll be good for additional filtering as you can see which leagues/position differences are the worst performing and you can tweak accordingly.

    Free Football Analysis Tool

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted · Edited by keef75

    Choose 'Accumulator' from the Staking Strategy options.  Once you return some results you'll see they look a little different.  You'll see a daily summary line in red or green depending on whether the bets in that day lost or won.  Use the blue 'All Results' button above the table to expand it out and see all matches.

    I had thought about limiting the number of selections in the accumulator and I knew you'd ask for it!  It's on the 'to do' list but it was an effort getting it working in the first place so I haven't given it much thought yet.

    Free Football Analysis Tool

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Accumulator bets are now available.  It was quite a challenge to write but I've tested it using many different filters and it all appears to be working fine.  Please let me know if you spot anything that doesn't look right.

    I'm going away for a few days next week so I won't be able to update the data.  I'll get as much as I can uploaded before I go regarding upcoming matches but there won't be any results posted while I'm away.  I'll catch up on it all when I get back as I'll be able to download the info I need.

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