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keef75

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    Keef's Horsey Holy Grail

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    POSSIBLE SELECTIONS - Friday, 20th September 2019

    3:25 Newbury - IT'S GOOD TO LAUGH or TRITONIC
    They're way longer odds than the favourite so I doubt either of them will start favourite.  Obviously if one of them does it'll be a pick but it's highly unlikely. 

    3:55 Newbury - SALUTE THE SOLDIER or DIRTY RASCAL
    Neither is favourite but there's a chance for Salute the Soldier.

    Keef's Horsey Holy Grail

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    I was just looking through the last couple of day's worth of results and happened to come across the 2:45 Yarmouth yesterday... because of a non-runner it became a selection and won at 6/5.  I have to be more thorough when looking for the possible selections!

    For the purposes of this thread I won't be including it in the results but it's going on my full spreadsheet for the sake of completeness.

    Keef's Horsey Holy Grail

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    POSSIBLE SELECTIONS - Sunday, 15th September 2019

    1:55 Curragh - GODDESS or LADY WANNABE or LOVEISTHEHIGHERLAW or WAITINGFORTHEDAY
    Currently 4/1 2nd fav (fav is 9/4), 9/1, 14/1 and 16/1 respectively.  Possibility for Goddess but she's going to need a lot of support.

    3:35 Curragh - PINATUBO or ARMORY
    Currently 9/4 fav and 10/3 respectively.  Pinatubo was a winning selection at Goodwood in July.

    Keef's Horsey Holy Grail

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    RESULTS - Saturday, 14th September 2019

    1:55 Leopardstown - RAVEN'S CRY or BLISSFUL 
    Raven's Cry started 3/1 favourite but failed to deliver finishing 8th of 9. BET and LOSER.

    2:25 Doncaster - SHINE SO BRIGHT 
    Started 10/11 clear favourite but, again, a poor run finishing 4th of 5. BET and LOSER.

    2:45 Chelmsford City - WAR GLORY 
    Not close to starting favourite. NO-BET.

    3:00 Doncaster - THREAT 
    Started 6/5 favourite, not a convincing win but we'll take that. BET and WINNER.

    3:05 Leopardstown - MOGUL 
    Started 1/2 favourite. BET and WINNER.

    3:40 Leopardstown - BUCKHURST 
    Started joint favourite, it was clear this wasn't going to be a selection on the run up to the start. NO-BET.

    4:10 Doncaster - INCINERATOR 
    Didn't start favourite. NO-BET.

    4:15 Leopardstown - HEADMAN or MADHMOON 
    Neither started as favourite. NO-BET.

    4:50 Leopardstown - LANCASTER HOUSE 
    Disappointing run in this step-up. BET and LOSER.

    Keef's Horsey Holy Grail

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    STAKES - Saturday, 14th September 2019

    The first bet of the day will be:

    Level Stakes: £10.00
    Square Root: £13.26
    1-3-2-6: £30.30
    Ratchet Sq Root: £13.26

    It's going to be too hard to keep up with the individual stakes for the races tomorrow as there are so many possibilities.  I'll give a summary after each day's racing.

    Keef's Horsey Holy Grail

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    I'm going to struggle to keep up with all these tomorrow so here's a little more information about the staking plans.

    Base stake is always £10 and the base percentage is always 1%.

    Level Stakes
    This is the easiest one.  Simply £10 per bet.

    Square Root
    This is the base percentage of the current bank (1%) plus the square root of the difference between the current bank and the start bank (£1000) but only when the current bank is in profit.  For example if the current bank is £960 then the stake is £9.60 (1% of the current bank).  If the current bank is £1250 the stake is £12.50 + £15.81 (SQRT of 250)  = £28.31.  Stakes will increase and decrease as the bank goes up and down.

    1-3-2-6
    Again, using the base percentage of the current bank (1%) but a negative balance doesn't affect the progression through the multipliers. The first stake is 1% of the current bank. If the first selection loses we remain on 1%. After the first winning bet the stake becomes 3% of the current bank.  If this second selection loses we revert back to 1%.  If the second selection wins we then put 2% of the current bank on the third selection.  If the third selection loses we revert back to 1% but if it wins we reach our final step, 6% of the current bank.  If the fourth selection wins or loses we revert back to 1%.  This plan is aggressive and can only really be profitable where there are several winning runs of 4+ bets.

    Ratchet Square Root
    This is almost exactly the same as the Square Root plan above but with the exception that the stake does not decrease with the current balance (hence the 'ratchet').  For example, the first bet is 1% of the start bank (£10 from a bank of £1000).  If this wins at 4/1 the bank now stands at £1040.  The stake for the next selection will be £10.40 (1%) + £6.32 (SQRT 40) = £16.72.  If this loses the bank is down to £1023.28 but the stake remains at £16.72.

    Keef's Horsey Holy Grail

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Saturday, 14th September 2019

    1:55 Leopardstown - RAVEN'S CRY or BLISSFUL 
    Currently 5/2 fav and 7/2 respectively. Only if no non-runners.

    2:25 Doncaster - SHINE SO BRIGHT 
    Currently 11/8 fav.

    2:45 Chelmsford City - WAR GLORY 
    Currently 5/1 2nd fav (fav is 9/2).  Only if starts as favourite.

    3:00 Doncaster - THREAT 
    Currently EVS fav. Only if no non-runners.

    3:05 Leopardstown - MOGUL 
    Currently 4/11 fav.

    3:40 Leopardstown - BUCKHURST 
    Currently 9/4 2nd fav (fav is 15/8).  Only if starts as favourite.

    4:10 Doncaster - INCINERATOR 
    Currently 15/8 fav. Only if no non-runners.

    4:15 Leopardstown - HEADMAN or MADHMOON 
    Currently 7/2 joint 2nd fav and 6/1 respectively (fav is 15/8).  Only if starts as favourite.

    4:50 Leopardstown - LANCASTER HOUSE 
    Currently 15/8 fav.

    Keef's Horsey Holy Grail

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    It's very tight at the top of the 6:50 at Chelmsford City with IBRAZ currently just clear favourite on Betfair (5.3) but the next three (all at 6.0) are all within touching distance.  It's not the best race to start with as it could go any way but it's a pick and if it meets the criteria then I'm going with it (although, for the sake of transparency, I'm still not using real money yet). Again, if there's no clear favourite it'll be a no-bet anyway.

    Staking:
    Level stakes: £10
    Square root: £10
    1-3-2-6: £10
    Ratchet square root: £10

    As this is the first race all four plans are at the base level of £10.  Stakes will change for some plans on the next bet.  
     

    Keef's Horsey Holy Grail

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Friday, 13th September 2019

    2:10 Doncaster - FARZEEN 

    Currently 7/2 fav.


    4:20 Doncaster - MOLATHAM 

    Currently 9/4 2nd fav to the 2/1 fav (Visinari) - don't forget it has to start CLEAR FAVOURITE to be included.  Also 5 runners is the lower limit for a selection.  There are 5 runners in this race so if there are any non-runners this will not be a selection.
     

    For info I use the Sporting Life website to get the selections so I use their odds when selecting (The price doesn't have any bearing on the selections although I did run a filter on price and found a very small improvement to some staking plans when capping the SP but others didn't perform as well).

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