South_African_Punter

DELRAY BEACH ATP
Ugo Humbert to beat Frances Tiafoe at 1,80 Bet365
 
Humbert had a great match against Kecmanovic winning in straight sets. The frenchman started this year as good as he wanted winning the Auckland ATP by beating Shapovalov Isner and Benoit Paire in the final. So he is in a great form and playing really well, and thats what you cant say about Tiafoe. Unfortunately He won yesterday but it wasnt a miracle because Tommy Paul wasnt playing well. I dont think that Frances can lower the amount of his unforced errors and that could end his tournament here. Tiafoe is not as good as Humbert at the moment. If the american cant improve his game this could be an easy match for Humbert. I like the odds here and i have to go with him. 
 
So Ugo Humbert to win @ 1,80

Elena Rybakina to beat Petra Martic at 1.71 with Parions Sport
It will be the 1st meeting between these 2 players. Despite the fact that Martic is playing pretty well in this tournament, I don't see how she can beat Rybakina here. Indeed, the Kazakh is on fire since the beginning of the year and could already reach her 4th final of 2020. Neither the defeat against Bertens for the title in Saint Petersburg, nor the accumulated tiredness seem to disturb the young prodigy in Dubai . She eliminated Kenin, Siniakova then Pliskova by losing only 1 set against the American during her 1st match. I watched her match against the Czech 2nd seed, she seemed very serene and sure of her tennis despite her young age. I was very pleased with the composure she showed to save 9 break points. She is solid in difficult moments and knows how to show her best moves to get by, thanks in particular to her powerful serve which continues to improve over the tournament, 80% of success on her 1st serve and 11 aces against Pliskova.

Kwon Won Soon to beat Adrian Mannarino at 1.75 with SportingBet
Kwon Won Soon has impressed me with his recent form, going deep(ish) in both Pune and New York, unluckily losing to Edmund (the eventual winner) in a third-set TB. Mannarino is not in good form at the moment, having won only one match in 2020, against the Australian Al Popyrin, ranked 100th. My only concern would be that Kwon Won Soon last Friday against Edmund, however, he is young and should have enough energy to get past Mannarino.

Kwon Won Soon to beat Adrian Mannarino at 1.75 with SportingBet
Kwon Won Soon has impressed me with his recent form, going deep(ish) in both Pune and New York, unluckily losing to Edmund (the eventual winner) in a third-set TB. Mannarino is not in good form at the moment, having won only one match in 2020, against the Australian Al Popyrin, ranked 100th. My only concern would be that Kwon Won Soon last Friday against Edmund, however, he is young and should have enough energy to get past Mannarino.

Kwon Won Soon to beat Adrian Mannarino at 1.75 with SportingBet
Kwon Won Soon has impressed me with his recent form, going deep(ish) in both Pune and New York, unluckily losing to Edmund (the eventual winner) in a third-set TB. Mannarino is not in good form at the moment, having won only one match in 2020, against the Australian Al Popyrin, ranked 100th. My only concern would be that Kwon Won Soon last Friday against Edmund, however, he is young and should have enough energy to get past Mannarino.

Jiri Vesely to beat Brandon Nakashima at 1.75 with Parions Sport
It will be the 1st time between these two players. You have to go back to 2014 to see Vesely participate this ATP 250 in Delray Beach. The Czech failed to pass the 1st round (3-set loss to Baghdatis). Nakashima will play this tournament for the 1st time in his career.
Nakashima, 295th in the world, received an invitation from the organizers. This 18-year-old American is starting to be talked about in the Challengers. He notably managed to beat Harrison and Tomic in Dallas earlier this month, and take a set from Tiafoe in the same tournament. Well, they are indeed 3 players far from their best level, but still. Vesely is the logical favorite to win this meeting. It must be said that he came out of an excellent tournament in Pune (he lifted the trophy) which allowed him to build up confidence.
However, it is important not to underestimate his opponent of the day. Nakashima seems to be very receptive to public support. Playing at home should therefore allow him to play transcended. The guy has a good 1st ball and an aggressive forehand that could tickle Vesely's sometimes feverish backhand when he plays it crossed (Vesely is left-handed). We must also highlight the fact that the American knows how to be regular in trade, which could well crack the Czech more than once (Vesely is indeed led to make a lot of mistakes when he is not in a good day). Now, I think Vesely will manage to make the necessary efforts to get out of this trap. His power will no doubt have a role to play in this meeting. Nakashima can have difficulties when the balls are fast, and the current 72nd should be able to play on that to gain many points. Experience should do the rest.

Jason Jung to beat Cameron Norrie at 2.00 with Sportingbet
Although I didn't see the Jung v Anderson game, I was still impressed that he won against Anderson, even if Anderson is clearly not at his best right now. Norrie is a bit of mess currently, having only won 3 matches so far this year, all to players outside the Top 400. Jung has also come through qualifiers, so this should help him.

Jason Jung to beat Cameron Norrie at 2.00 with Sportingbet
Although I didn't see the Jung v Anderson game, I was still impressed that he won against Anderson, even if Anderson is clearly not at his best right now. Norrie is a bit of mess currently, having only won 3 matches so far this year, all to players outside the Top 400. Jung has also come through qualifiers, so this should help him.

Jason Jung to beat Cameron Norrie at 2.00 with Sportingbet
Although I didn't see the Jung v Anderson game, I was still impressed that he won against Anderson, even if Anderson is clearly not at his best right now. Norrie is a bit of mess currently, having only won 3 matches so far this year, all to players outside the Top 400. Jung has also come through qualifiers, so this should help him.

Jason Jung to beat Cameron Norrie at 2.00 with Sportingbet
Although I didn't see the Jung v Anderson game, I was still impressed that he won against Anderson, even if Anderson is clearly not at his best right now. Norrie is a bit of mess currently, having only won 3 matches so far this year, all to players outside the Top 400. Jung has also come through qualifiers, so this should help him.

WTA St. Petersburg
Alize Cornet - Maria Sakkari  [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

Bad decission to wait with this bet till morning, but still some value left. Sakkari is really dangerous player right now on all surfaces. Great serv and forhand and good movement. Her bad run at the end of last year was caused by her wrist injury, but now she is fully fit and won very dg indoors player Diatchenko in first round.

Cornet is 22-27 career indoors and thats really poor for longterm top30 player. She won Ivakhnenko and Zvonareva in the qualies, and amazingly bad Ostapenko in the 1st round. This win is overrated by to books now, giving us some nice value.

Maria has better serv and better form I would say, after great AO. Also last two hardcourt h2h matches she won over Cornet, and inddors she might have even little better edge. GL

10pts Oceane Dodin to beat Johanna Konta (WTA St. Petersburg) @ 2.50 Betway
Not much to say about this one - Konta has been struggling with injury and is still to get a win this season, whilst Dodin has picked up three wins without dropping a set in qualifying. It's fair to say that question marks over Konta's fitness have been factored into her price, but even so I think it's worth taking her on as if any signs of injury appear I'm not sure how hard she'll push for a win.

Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Anastasia Potapova at 1.72 with bet365
Tomljanovic has played really well today against Vondrousova. Potapova has won 3 matches here without dropping a single set but considering the players she has faced I’m not surprised (Di Giuseppe, Parmentier and Samsonova). If Tomjlanovic plays similar as she did today against the Czech she should win this match.
I'm not predicting well the matches. Mladenovic and Vondrousova have lost (this last one has shocked me). Alexandrova could have lost against Daria and Cecchinato has been a mess again (bye-bye top 100). I have some bets pending. Ostapenko, Monteiro, Molteni/Mayer and this one. If I lose more than one I will take a break..
 

I watched Bublik's matches in Montpellier and he comes across as a total nut-case. Guy definitely has the talent, but has the tendency to lose his cool and spray errors all over. Worse, goes big on second serves and double faults and how can I even forget the cheek to go for underarm serves during the most crucial junctures during a match. I find him to be very inconsistent, but that's me. Barrere looked pretty solid against Dimitrov, didn't have to do much because Dimitrov was hell bent on losing that match on his own. I think this match is a bit of a toss-up, would give a slight edge to Barrere because of his consistent strokes. Good luck with your bet!

I will post the first bet for this week 
Karen Khachanov to beat Fabio Fognini at 1.55 with 888
Fognini has never been a good indoor court player (he has achieved some good results in Moscow and St Petersburg a few years ago but nothing else) and this is the first time he will play in Rotterdam. Khachanov has never won a match in Rotterdam but the three times he has played here he was very close. In 2017 he lost in 2 close TB against Coric. In 2018 he lost in a 3 set match against Kohlschreiber (6-3, 6-7, 6-7). In 2018 he lost in a 3 set match against Griekspoor (6-3, 3-6, 2-6). As I said, Khachanov style fits more with this kind of courts. Khachanov best results have been on indoor courts. In 2018 he won the Paris Master (the best title of his career, by far) and he also won the ATP of Marseille and the Kremlin Cup in the same year so 3 of his 4 ATP titles have been on indoor tournaments.
 

Thanks for the pick with Schwartzman. Weirdly he drifted to 4.0 before start of tournament so I got slight better odds. 

Each to their own, but I never go anywhere near exhibitions. It's hard enough in normal tournament play to gauge things like motivation, and it's even harder to do in exhibition play where the result really doesn't matter. Who knows if a player is using an exhibition to try out a new shot or a new strategy - if I was a player, exhibitions would be where I would take chances with my game and try out new things to see how they work.

I wouldn't put my money on a exhibition match between this two. this is a flip coin

@money44 - I will agree with @darko08's analysis re Moutet. Beating Pella is no mean feat and he has already beaten Martin (albeit on hard) so he at least has the knowledge of how to beat him.

@money44 - I will agree with @darko08's analysis re Moutet. Beating Pella is no mean feat and he has already beaten Martin (albeit on hard) so he at least has the knowledge of how to beat him.

@money44 I dont know what to expect from the Martin-Moutet match. I think Moutet is the right favorite but maybe Martin is a little bit underrated. I just have checked the h2h and Moutet has won the 2 matches they have played in 2019 (Martin won against him in 2018). Despite this day of rest for Martin if someone has to be tired this will be Martin (he played 4 matches in Punta del Este including a 3 set match against Cecchinato in the SF). He has won his 2 matches here in straights sets (against Coria and Taberner) but both have been tight. I know it was on another surface but Moutet was impressive in Doha. He won there against Sandgren, Raonic, Verdasco and Wawrinka (and he also won against Popyrin and Martin in the qually). This final he reached in Doha (his best career result, by far) can be a turning point for him. After Doha he lost in the first round against Cilic in the AO (nothing strange) but now he has won against Monteiro and Pella in his 2 first matches here (his opponents were more dangerous than the players Martin has faced). As I said, Moutet is the right favorite to me.

@money
It's not in my place to say but I think you make too many bets...
Much love ?

Luckily I didn't bet on that looking at the first set. ?

Ugo Humbert (-2.5) v Feliciano Lopez @ 1.83

Well @darko08 has basically laid out the reasoning. I'm increasing the odds here by using the game handicap. Although it is likely there will be a TB in this match, this will still cover if there's only one break (assuming Humbert win the TB), which should be possible given Lopez's poor form on indoor hard.

Luckily I didn't bet on that looking at the first set. ?

Ugo Humbert (-2.5) v Feliciano Lopez @ 1.83

Well @darko08 has basically laid out the reasoning. I'm increasing the odds here by using the game handicap. Although it is likely there will be a TB in this match, this will still cover if there's only one break (assuming Humbert win the TB), which should be possible given Lopez's poor form on indoor hard.

10/10... 0/4 sets xD next time try to be less arrogant, maybe you'll catch one.