yossa6133

Mertens to beat Townsend - 1.61 with Betfair
Mertens is the gatekeeper to seeing if people are top 30 level or not. She beats who she should beat and loses to those she should lose to mostly. She shouldn't lose to Townsend who has only beaten mostly lower ranked players recently, and needed three sets to do it a few times as well. 

Go to War 2:25 Ludlow (1/2). Not a very exciting pick but this one has been well backed and the stable's runners usually deliver when the money is down. Looked good when winning over CD last time before a bit of a break and wind surgery.
1pt win 1/2.
 
won nicely enough 
 
P/L: -3.4pts

I've just done VETIVER 20/1eway bet365 ( 4 places ) 
It'll only be her 8th start with 3 wins over 7-8.5f on good to soft / soft & heavy , Balding / Probert good combo & she was 3rd in Group 3 fillies & mares over 7f here in September staying on , she's also already won a Listed , has had a 174 day break but won 1st time out last season & was placed on her debut run & i thought 20's was over priced ( probably be 50's now I've taken early price ) 
Slightly worried that @richard-westwoodhas picked Dutch Decoy as I used to have an eyelash in him but gave up on him when Johnston Snr would just run him on all weather but Johnston Jnr is doing a cracking job with him on turf .

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To be fair, I am into my 70s ........  the old brain is a bit too addled to start doing complicated things with computers, particularly as I never learned to use them apart from what I taught myself
I'm happy enough to study the form in the old fashioned way and just form the ratings and keep them on a Word document ....... I don't keep a record for each horse just jot down the winners rating then I can quickly look up a horses last 2 or 3 figures by reference to the race winner of the races he ran in
I've never really been attracted to systems or data analysis ........ I'm interested in the horses that are running today and I'm happy enough studying today's race without reference to what other horses have done in the past. I've got the form of today's runners and that's all I need !

I am fortunate in that my financial background meant I had to use computers for much of my work. I remember back in 1981 when I was a trainee accountant at British Steel there was a shiny new PC in the corner of the room that everybody was scared of but I took the plunge and started to use it. In those days it was a twin floppy disk set up with the system disk in one side and the work disk in the other (512kb capacity, I used to hate the disk full message). Lotus123 was the spreadsheet of choice, I used to love that (especially writing macros) and it took me till the mid 2000s to ween myself off it and move to Excel.
Before I retired a few years ago I just used to bet on Saturdays, typing data from the Racing Post into my spreadsheets (I was too tight to subscribe to a data service).
Since being retired I have had more time (too much according to my wife) to analyse and test data and I am reasonably happy with the returns from my AW systems.
I would hope to have all my inital work done in the next couple of weeks before the flat season starts to kick in properly. Where it leads me we will see.

This reads a bit like how i first started (we have read the same book) but it didn't take me long to find so many flaws ( you have already found 1 🙂) so i went fishing 3 days and nights and gave it a shit load of thought came back and totally simplified it and it worked pretty well now here is something that might interest you and @Trotter when i applied the methodology to the aw racing something quirky happened namely that it became less good at predicting the winner but very good at predicting the places my best guess on this, it is because back then AW racing was very low grade piss poor horses running on just 3 tracks all different. Southwell (fibresand), lingfield and then Wolves all three tracks have changed since then and it has now become pretty close to turf (equivalent to good to firm) believe it or not so you can at a pinch switch between the two for the majority of Runners. I would be quite happy to have a face to face chat with you on messenger or some such to discuss things  but i will not put it on here it would be pointless and take up to much time.

When i first did speed figures i had to use index cards, this was very time consuming, with the advent of computerisation it was 1000 x faster especially when sorting the data for each new race. I must admit i loved having all those index cards but they were a bugger to keep sorting and flipping through even though they were alphabetical to the name of the horse.

Right, I'm diving straight into the deep end !
Be gentle with me, I'm an absolute beginner at this.
I was going to concentrate on the all weather but as @Trotter says, we are now probably past the peak season for the AW.
After rereading some of Nick Mordin's work he does state that the racing post standard times are valuable but compiling your own average times would produce more accurate figures. So, in for a penny, in for a pound.
I will start with Ascot (purely based on the alphabet).
I have taken data for 2022 (I am going to use 2023 as test data). For each race I have listed the date, class, distance and winning time. Most of this data I have been able to download automatically.
 1. Convert the data into seconds per mile. This shows the the fastest time was in a 5 furlongs sprint and the slowest time in the Queen Alexandra Stakes over nearly 2 miles 6 furlongs. Logical so far.
2. Calculate the average time for each distance. 
2. Calculate the average winning time by distance and by class. So as an example for 6 furlongs there were 8 races at class 1 with an average time of 73.73 seconds, class 2 was 74.03 seconds and class 3 was 75.13 seconds. Convert these into seconds per mile.
3. For each race subtract the winning time from the average for that distance and class.
4. Calculate the average for that meeting. This is the going allowance for that meeting. The highest adjustment (1.53 secs / mile) was in June when the going was good to firm, the lowest adjustment (-2.85 secs / mile) was in October when the going was good to soft.
I disagree to a certain extent with Mr Mordin at this stage, he takes a subjective view of each meeting, in an example of a 6 race meeting he excludes one race because it was "probably won by an exceptional horse" and for 2 others he excludes them because he would "guess that they were slow-run affairs". That leaves him with just three races to calculate the going allowance.
5. Subtract the going allowance from the winning time.
6. Subtract the adjusted winning time from the average winning time for that distance. The highest figure was for Pyledriver in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth stakes. Intuitively this feels right. The winning time was 149.49 secs (100.00 secs / mile), the average winning time for that distance is 102.62 secs / mile. The going adjustment for that meeting was -0.10 secs / mile, giving Pyledriver a rating of +2.72. The lowest rating was Oh This Is Us in a class 3 classified stakes with a rating of -3.87.
7. Convert the ratings to a scale. Not strictly necessary but conceptually better. The top rated horse could be given a rating of 140 and the lowest 0, possibly as a comparative to the BHB official ratings.
8. Calculate the ratings for the remaining horses in each race. I will use Nick Mordin's assumption that every fifth of a second is counted as one length.
 
So there it is, my starter for ten. It seems logical but I may be missing something. The next step is to calculate these numbers going back a number of years for Ascot and also for all other courses. Time consuming but doable using Excel. Hopefully the effort will be worth it.
 
 
 

I will put this one out there before the flat gets going and it might interest @MCLARKE and anyone else that is thinking of Speed Rating races.
Unless you are prepared to put in over 30 hours per week you will never cover all the races so you need to pick your pool of horses carefully. So i will suggest a pool of horses that will serve you well all year round and be more efficient after the first year which will give you time to experiment and that is 2yo races on the all weather. If you do the figures for these races you will need to bear in mind a few things..
1. The type of all weather surface, Tapeta (Newcastle, Southwell, Wolves) the others inc Dundalk are all Polytrack.
2. Don't be in a hurry, collect the data and use it to small stakes or save it until you have a substantial database. Minimum of 9 months to a year.
3. Don't get too bogged down with draw bias the better AW Jockeys/trainers can overcome it.
4. Identify the better AW jockeys/trainers (that consistently overcome the draw, it is good information.
5. keep the data updated daily (don't put it of until weekend etc)
6. understand the difference between wet and dry sand (think of a beach)
7. check the results and the race comments of every race against your data.
8. bear in mind you only need to rate a race down to 6 and often 3 places at the most, this is because the figures below 5th or 6th are of very little use.

Good day for my horse racing tips yesterday - 
9 selections - 8 winners
Acca bet -
Excelero 4/11
Billytherealbigred 4/9
Night Raider 1/3
Daily tips -
Golden Maverick 4/6
Prairie Wolf 6/5
Theformismighty 11/8
Ascending Lark 85/40
Double Powerful 5/4
Nap -
Ayyab 2nd 3/1 (beaten neck  )

"I guess speed figures should be most useful over sprint trips on the flat" The most useful speed figures are not really in the sprints (usually all very similar) what you are looking for is outliers beyond 8F.  Just one Great example of this was Alpenista, go look back at its form, it came to my attention when it beat a horse i really fancied in a time that was exceptional for that day so it went into my notebook, go forward and Prescotts big mistake was not going for the arc the year before it won it, the arc, the one that torquato tasso won. (my big mistake was not backing Torquato to win the arc in the absence of Alpenista, 100/1 in places)  Alpenista had beaten that horse comfortably on two occasions in Germany. the point i am making here is that i made a lot of money off Alpenista just by noting the time anomaly (big speed figure) and following it thereafter.

6.30 Southwell - EAGLES REALM 11/2 William Hill , previous CD winner who'll benefit from drop back from 16-14f .

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....
Lincoln hcap scan 
Johan.  9.0 14/1
Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 
Blues emperor 8.8 20/1
Raadabarg.   8.4 
Awwaal.  8.4 
Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

Drop it back to 3 days because as proven this year there are just not enough horses and that will get worse with time. An analysis of doubly or more entered horses in races will tell any right minded person which graded races to drop there seems to be too many options for each horse. Even the handicaps had fewer entries this year.

Rarely will a race plan out just as you think it will and rarely will than happen in the biggest hunter chase of the season, but pretty much everything I thought would happen at Cheltenham did happen. Obviously it helped I backed her, but I am really pleased that Sine Nomine won as it is a great result for British pointing. I had a interesting discussion with Johnny Dineen on Twitter who reckoned British hunter chases were just full of crocs which quite frankly was a disgraceful thing to say and she helped prove him wrong. She did what she always does and cruised round for most of the way until things got very interesting coming to the last. Having seen the head on I personally think John had every right to go up the inside and it was a bit of a naughty move from Derek. I'm sure he would say it was just race riding, but if John hadn't switched the mare you do wonder what might have happened. The switch just before the fence meant she didn't actually jump it all that well and she didn't look the winner at that stage. She flew up the run-in though and certainly proved any doubts I had about her seeing out the trip wrong because she ate up the ground to catch and pass Its On The Line. She's a top class mare and given her age you have to think she has a good chance of coming back next year and winning again. She hasn't been entered at Aintree and Cheltenham and Stratford have been mentioned as remaining targets for the season.    Its On The Line did travel well for a fair way and it was going down the back for the last time that he started having to be niggled along, but that was hardly a surprise. It was also no surprise that he kept going and going because that is what he does. He ran his race and I think he was just beaten by a better horse on the day who would have won by further if she hadn't had to switch before the last. It was a very good ride, but I saw some say that only he could have got him to run so well, but as I said in the preview he didn't ride him to win at Down Royal and he was hard work that day so I don't buy that. Derek reckons the horse will prefer Aintree, but he fell at Bechers last year and he was quite a long way back at the time. I'm not going to say he can't win, but he's been put in as favourite and it will need a very good ride if he finds himself out the back again for most of the race. The heavier the ground the better his chance I suspect. If he stays hunter chasing then no doubt he will be a big player in this again next year.   You may remember that I was tossing up putting up Time Leader or Quintin's Man as the 3rd pick and the ground being testing put me off Time Leader. That was clearly a mistake and I did briefly wonder if it was going to be a serious error when he led turning for home. Fortunately for us the ground did mean he didn't see it out as well as the first 2 and I do think his jockey might have been right in saying that if the ground had been better he might well have won the race. He is going to be a big player at Aintree where a mistake at the chair put him on the back foot before he made up loads of ground to finish 5th.   The in running comment for D'Jango does not mention that he made any mistakes which is just daft because he made loads and whilst he didn't look like falling they cost him plenty of ground. The data says that he lost 16L on the field average through his jumping and the 2nd and 3rd gained between 12 and 15 lengths through their jumping so that's around a 30L swing. It was some effort for him to nab Billaway on the line for 4th. It backed up that his form has improved massively since going to his new yard. He didn't jump all that well at Warwick when he won so dropping back down in grade shouldn't be an issue if he still jumps poorly. I think he looks an ideal candidate for the 4m race on hunter chase night and the slower pace should mean his jumping isn't under so much pressure. He is a proven stayer as well.   Billaway has run his usual solid race and made a bad error at the last. He will be 13 next year, but he might be back if he's still showing something. I'd imagine Punchestown will be on his agenda this season. The even older Shantou Flyer was the last to finish and the stiff test of stamina probably wasn't ideal for him, but to be beaten 20L at his age was still a huge effort and it was great to see him run well.   Onto the non-finishers and lets start with Ferns Lock. He looked a bit on edge when he left the parade ring and was wearing the red hood. As soon as that came off at the start though he lost the plot and any chance of him staying disappeared. He ran as he usually does and was too free up front, but his jumping also let him down at time as not only did he make some bad mistakes he also occasionally jumped out to his right. I thought he was going to be a strong bet for Aintree, but on the back of this effort I have some doubts. It wont be as big a crowd at Aintree, but you still have to wonder if he is going to go mental again and. His jumping is now a concern and will he empty on the long run-in? He is clearly still mentally immature and he needs to grow up.   Last year's winner Premier Magic never really looked like he was going to get involved in the finish. I found it bizarre that a few in the media felt he was over priced and was a great e/w bet because there was no proof he was in the same form as last year on his pointing form. He might not have stayed in this deeper ground, but I just think he might have regressed at the age of 11.   Quintin's Man was disappointing for me and I was surprised that Darren said the horse was unsuited by the ground as I thought he need it testing. He never got involved anyway and maybe he just isn't up to it. Samcro pulled up as well which was no surprise.   So it was a smaller than usual field, but I think the quality was there and for me it was a classy renewal with the best two horses finishing 1st and 2nd. Ferns Lock is clearly good, but he needs to mature.

Iconic Muddle 2nd for the 4th time in a row and 9th time (out of 21 starts) in career! Nice horse but doesn't seem bothered about winning 😂

Whoshotthesheffif 3:15 Wetherby (10/1 Bet365 boost, 8/1 general). Seemed to be running into a bit of form last time at Kelso on 3rd run after 425 day absence. Dropped to 119 from a peak of 142 (RRP of 116 lto). Likes this time of year (2 wins in March) and good weight carrier (won carrying 11-12 x2 and 11-10). Down another 5lb from last run allows him into this class 4 and he's a CD winner. The odds on fav here was beaten fair and square last time off the same mark.
1pt win 10/1.
 
Ran a shocker, never traveling. Maybe just no good anymore or maybe improve for the application of money at some point.
 
P/L: -3.9pts

Diger Daudaie very interesting in the 2.00 at Exeter - would previously have picked these up and carried them but had problems and was off for 2 years. Slowly seems to be getting back to something like a bit of form and this track and trip look spot on with soft ground in favour. Better ground hasn't suited since returning and although won't be as good as he once was, given he's 11 now, his handicap mark reflects that. Appeals at 11/1 to me. 

I do find 'problems' with every attempt to find a sub-set of the horse population to concentrate on
For grade races you'll always find runners that have been running in maidens, handicaps, conditions & listed races, in Ireland, in France ....... horses that you have no ratings for unless you rate every meeting which I'd find impossible
My main focus has always been the Winter AW ...... say October to March. The horses that run there are not running anywhere else so you can be pretty confident of having the full picture for those 6 months
(My usual practice is to rate the meetings day by day and store the winners rating which I can refer back to and take lengths off for the beaten horses ratings. I don't start to rate the race I'm looking 'today' from scratch)
this is how I store my ratings on a text document - 
24/10 Wolv (hcap par 85, F7) - Vespasian 100 (6f c4), Triggered 97 (7f c5), Intoxicata 89 (7f c6), Bankrupt 89 (5f c6), Hannah's Return 88 (7f c6), Master of Combat 88 (9f c5), Elliott 87 (5f c5 2yo), Winterfair 78 (8f c5 2yo), Serengeti Sunrise 70 (7f c5 2yo)
Hcap par figure is the expected average figure that should be run in the meeting's handicaps according to the class of horse. I only use handicaps for compiling allowances which I then apply to the other races on the card.
F7 ------- this is my going allowance. In this case I reckon the track is riding Fast and on average the horses are running 7 lengths per mile faster than expected for horses of this class. So I take 7 points off the raw rating.
Horses name and rating ...... then in brackets the distance, class of race and if it's a 2yo
 
 
 

Thought the blinkers could be a good move again for Wide To West at 8/1 in the 1.55 at Southwell. Lazy type but stays well when concentrating so if he doesn't sulk with the headgear applied for the second time, can make the frame and hopefully win. 

A decent finish to the festival with Majborough winning at 7/1
Total profit to send to the charity £ 473.83, more than double last years £233.66

B/fwd L15's -46.6 and Racing Chat (RC) -52.64 (incl L15's)
Had 2.50 on the daily L15's
1.32 Hunt Flamelco 2 pts win at 5.1 for a 6.08 profit. 1 pt win saver bets on Yellow Jacket (Trotter's selection) and 1 pt win on Dumeomeno each to recover 0.39 pts if my nap fails to fire.
I think that @Trotteris doing very well on the £20 challenge and all his selections should be checked out daily by forum members
Total stakes today = 6.50
 

Some brief thoughts for today.   Eastleigh v Rochdale I think we were a bit unlucky with Woking on Tuesday night and I am happy to take Rochdale on again with Eastleigh who I think can get back to winning ways here.   York v Aldershot As we know Aldershot aren't always trustworthy away from home, but they are better than York who were hammered 5-1 on Tuesday night at Altrincham. Their fans already want the new manager to go and hopefully it is an away win.   Darlington v Peterborough Sports Happy to go with Darlington again at a shade of odds on as they continue to look a much better side than their league position suggests.   Kings Lynn v Rushall Olympic I'm surprised the home side aren't odds on here to be honest and they rate a confident selection.   Dartford v Maidstone A local derby which always adds a hint of caution, but Dartford continue to be in dreadful form and Maidstone are much better than them. They should be odds on for me.   Hemel Hempstead v Hampton & Richmond Hemel have got Dartford's old manager in, but they continue to be poor and Hampton have found their form again.   Prices from 9am Saturday   Eastleigh 1pt @ 8/5 with SKybet and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 13/10 with most bookies (take up to 11/10) Darlington 2pts @ 10/11 with wiyth most bookies (take up to 4/5) Kings Lynn 4pts @ 13/10 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 5/6)  Maidstone 2.5pts @ 23/20 with Bet365, Betfred, Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 10/11) Hampton & Richmond 2pts @ 11/8 with most bookies (take up to 11/10)

Not too shabby that 😲