yossa6133

The big handicap at Goodwood on Friday is the Golden Mile. This heritage handicap is open to 3-year-olds or older and, as the name suggests, is run over exactly 1 mile. The off time is 15.00.
22 go to post and with some bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it a good betting proposition.
 
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
If you back a horse that is not drawn low you might as well tear your betting ticket up! There have been 103 horses drawn in stalls 8 or higher and they have all lost.
Shorter priced horses have a good record. Those with odds of 6/1 or less have 4 wins from 14 runs with a profit of 14 points.
Horses that did not finish in the 1st 11 last time have a record of 0 wins from 42 runs.
 
This leaves just 1 horse.
LATTAM 4/1
I suggest backing this each way with bookmakers offering 6 places.

Thursday return : £21.97

1 place so a whole 32p returned.
That's why @LeMale is the boss and I am merely his assistant ...

One winner and double the odds, so that answers that question! I suppose it was likely given that I’m still getting BOG with them. Time to start doing a daily L15?

2 winners = £23.80 

Day 3 returns 75 pence. 
Some pretty dreadful runs there.

Day 3 returns 75 pence. 
Some pretty dreadful runs there.

Couple of winners returned £6.10. 
La Isla was well backed and looked like she might win 2F out, but not quite. Almost went Magical Sunset and e/w which would have been nice.

Galway 2:45
Soulness
each way

Day 3 picks. 2 non runners, so reloaded. All shorties, so need them all to win.

Day 3 picks. 2 non runners, so reloaded. All shorties, so need them all to win.

Day four of not so Glorious Goodwood with conditions, as predicted, taking a turn for the worse on Wednesday and the ground will still be quite testing for racing this afternoon despite the forecast of a dry sunny day. Once again ITV are showing the first four on the card with the feature race being the Group 2 King George Qatar Stakes run over 5F with the fastest mare around Highfield Princess in attendance at 15:35. Here are my thoughts and selections for that quartet to help beat the bookies.   Goodwood 13:50 A big field of eighteen line up for this class 2 Coral Goodwood Handicap run over 2m 4F 97 yards which will started by a flag rather than stalls. The 2021 winner Calling The Wind arrives in excellent shape having won the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle when last seen and can be involved in the finish although 9-12 in the mud will be quite a steadier. Ian Williams saddles a trio with the best of his three possibly Law Of The Sea who ran a good fourth (beaten 1 3/4L) in the Chester Cup on his only run on soft ground. He has each way chances along with the likes of the the light weight Robert Johnson who’s won five of his last 6 starts all be it in lower grade. Syd Hosie is better known as a jumps trainer but he seems to have improved Temporize who improved for a step up in trip at Ascot a week ago when runner up to Blazeon Five and is officially 2lb well in today. He does have to prove he stays this longer trip however. The Irish challenger Tronador has to be given plenty of respect as well, trained by Gordon Elliot he gets weight from most and comes here on the back of a handicap hurdle victory at Bellewstown. This is a minefield of a race and stakes should be kept to a minimum with many holding claims. I’ll take my chances with Phil Kirby’s Robert Johnson, who’s on a real run at present and handles soft ground well. This extreme trip may bring about further improvement so to small stakes is worth backing each way alongside the top weight Calling The Wind who has won this race before and arrives in fine form.   CALLING THE WIND 1/2 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345 ROBERT JOHNSON 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345   Goodwood 14:25 Seven have declared for this intriguing 1M Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes, a Group 3 contest won by the great Baaeed in 2021. The race is for three year olds only and features a warm favourite in the Sir Michael Stoute trained Nostrum. He could quite easily outclass these having impressed on his re-appearance when a very impressive winner of a listed race at Newmarket in July. A Group 3 winner at two as well as finishing third to Chaldean in the Group 1 Dewhurst he has a bright future but has only run on good fast ground and will have never seen conditions like these today. It would be no shock were he to be pulled out and as a warm favourite offers no value. The two Irish challengers Bold Discovery and Montesilvano may be inconvenienced by the easy ground and are easily ruled out. Docklands will handle the ground well (6 1/2L Ascot handicap winner on soft) and this may well be his last run on these shores as he’s been sold to race in Australia. He’s smart and could be the value bet here. The ground wont be a problem for soft ground Horris Hill winner Knight whilst the Charlie Hills trained Galeron takes a drop in class having contested Group 1 contests on his last three starts. The value play here is Harry Eustace’s Docklands who is ridden by his partner Hayley Turner.   DOCKLANDS 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365   Goodwood 15:00 The day’s big handicap is the 1M Coral Golden Mile Handicap for three year old’s and upwards and we have a maximum field of twenty. This is one of the big draw races of the season with the last ten year’s winners draw positions reading 2, 5, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 9, 5, 13. That said on Wednesday in the 7F Oak Tree Stakes the field swung over to the stands side and that seemed to be the place to be all afternoon. There is a near 90 degree right hand turn after a furlong which favours the low drawn numbers and as along as that still holds with all the rain this week I’ve narrowed the field down to two. Favourite Lattam, trained by William Haggas is (hopefully) well berthed in stall 3 and loves the mud having won the Irish Lincoln at The Curragh in March on heavy ground. With Tom Marquand on top he has plenty in his favour and has to be the one they all have to beat (as long as the usual draw bias plays out). The other one I like is the Richard Hannon trained Tacarib Bay, ridden by Sean Levey who ran a blinder at Ascot last Saturday when leading home his far side group but only finishing 7th overall. He’s back on a winning mark, loves the mud and is drawn in stall 4. Last year’s first four home are all back to have another go with the David O’Meara pair Orbaan and Blue For You renewing rivalry with third Revich and fourth Ouzo. The Simon and Ed Crisford trained Awaal has good form in the mud and in first time cheek pieces can be competitive along with Charlie Hills’s Racingbreaks Ryder who probably didn’t enjoy the fast ground at Royal Ascot last time. A tricky race with some doubt as to wether the normal draw bias holds up. If it does I’ll dutch Lattam and Tacarib Bay.   LATTAM 1 point win 4/1 bet365 TACARIB BAY 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Goodwood 15:35 Eleven speedsters go to post for this Group 2 5F King George Qatar Stakes. The warm favourite is the likely winner John Quinn trained Highfield Princess who is a top sprinter having won three group 1 sprints last season on fast and soft ground. She ran well at Royal Ascot in the two Group one sprints finishing runner up to Bradsells in the Kings Stand and third in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes to Khaadem. She wont mind the prevailing ground unlike many of her rivals and it will be a shock were she not to take this. The two Charlie Hills runners Equality ridden by Ryan Moore and Equilateral ridden by Frankie Dettori may be inconvenienced by soft ground and can be ruled out whilst last year’s runners up Raasel is not in much form currently. Andrew Balding’s Nymphadora won’t mind wet conditions and might be the one to chase the favourite home.   HIGHFIELD PRINCESS 2 points win @ 10/11   All odds were available at time of writing  

Couple of winners returned £6.10. 
La Isla was well backed and looked like she might win 2F out, but not quite. Almost went Magical Sunset and e/w which would have been nice.

Perfect example of ratings and class working hand in hand ...hopefully will throw up a few more winners in the future .....put the non runner stake on Rhoscolyn so returns 99.12 +79.12 ...that covers recent losses and a nice chunk profit .....onwards and upwards 

Day 2 picks

Paddington (3:35 Goodwood). Boosted to evens on Bet365.
 
 
What Bet365 curse! Did that very nicely.

Paddington (3:35 Goodwood). Boosted to evens on Bet365.
 
 
What Bet365 curse! Did that very nicely.

Paddington (3:35 Goodwood). Boosted to evens on Bet365.
 
 
What Bet365 curse! Did that very nicely.

Paddington (3:35 Goodwood). Boosted to evens on Bet365.
 
 
What Bet365 curse! Did that very nicely.

Monitoring weather forecast for Tomorrow & looking good at moment for Ladies Day.......
'' Cloud will break in Aft, Lengthy sunny spells, remaining dry, easing winds'' 😎 🤞
 
Free £5 multi EW  WON  Tony Montana  4th  &   Breege   2nd......
O Murphy & W Buick both have winners @ 10/3   /    R Moore 2 wins @ 3/1...... ( both these bets cant win to late NR's )
Good 1.50      Struth  8/1 EW            &     Tony Montana    17/2 EW     4th    &         Alumnus  28/1 EW  NR                          4 places
Good 2.25      Jumbly   9/2   NR              &      White Moonlight   6/1            &           Fast Response 9/2         &      Breege     7/1 EW     2nd         4 places
Good 3.00      Big Evs   5/2     WON            &        Kylian  11/4............ Hackman 14/1    &      Shagraan  10/1  
Good 3.35      Paddington / Aldaary   R/FC    &          Inspiral / Aldaary   R/FC  ( in case this 1 race too much for Fav )   &  Facteur Cheval   12/1  
Good 4.10      Indispensable     7/1 EW       3rd           &            Dapperling    10/1 EW    4th     &     Ziggys Dream  12/1 EW                 4 places
Good 4.45        There's the Door  5/1   WON  6/1      &      Sirona   10/1 EW   NR          &      Chips & Rice  14/1 EW        4 places   ( 3 places with late NRs )
               
2 wins 🏆 🏆 .......an EW double and 4 EW places, so happy on a day of NRs / crap ground so came out ahead just 😎
 

Day 2 picks

Galway Plate Chase 
Easy Game 9.32 18/1
Fury Road 8.97 12/1
The Goffer 8.91 14/1
Kilcruit 8.9 13/2
A Wave Of The Sea 8.76 40/1
Super competitive race 22 runners.  This race is usually won by unexposed novice types carrying less than 11 stone but the last two renewals of been won by classy types Hewick last year and Royal Rendezvous the year before carrying big weights . Hewick returns along with some other big names. Hewick scores low on going and his current mark hence why not in the picture for me but he’s a real class act.   I hope conditions don’t get too testing for Easy Game although he has won on soft ground before but wouldn’t want it too bad. Finished second in this race two years ago and 10th last year off a pound higher but was hampered twice which killed momentum near the end. 11,4 isn’t the end of the world because he’s has lots of class about him . 
 
I’ll be brave and go 5 points on the nose 

Day Three of Glorious Goodwood although with the weather forecast it hardly looks Glorious! Today’s feature race is the Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes over 10F for fillies and mares and is run at 15:35. ITV are again showing the first four races from the meeting and here are my thoughts and selections to help us beat the bookies again today.   Goodwood 13:50 A cracking eighteen runner class 2 three year old’s only handicap kicks us off today which will be run over 10F. Current favourite is the Sir Michael Stoute trained Perfuse who has already shown his liking for very soft ground when winning his maiden at Nottingham on officially heavy ground. He was better than his finishing position of fifth when beaten 6L by Desert Hero in the King George V Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot and will appreciate dropping back to 10F here. With Ryan Moore on board, a favourable draw in stall seven and the ground in his favour he’s the main bet. Its double figure prices all the others with soft ground loving Royal Rhyme likely to run a big race. Kevin Ryan’s Lope De Vega colt is two from two on soft ground including when running out a 5L winner at Newmarket in May. Back on soft ground he can be competitive from stall 2 and appeals each way with additional places. The Richard Fahey trained Have Secret is another with winning soft ground form and at a nice price could be involved in the finish having finished fourth in two of the summers better 3-year-old middle distance handicaps. Others worth a mention are the handicap debutant of William Haggas’s Garden Route but he’s untested on a soft surface whilst the same can be said about Andrew Balding’s Alsakib who’s won his last two races. Andrew Balding also saddles Goldsborough who’s already won here and on heavy ground so on this handicap debutant is an interesting runner at a very big price especially if the ground rides very soft. Perfuse is a strong fancy and is the main play here although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Have Secret from stall one.   PERFUSE 3 points win @ 3/1 William Hill HAVE SECRET 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Goodwood 14:25 With the defection of a couple here we have ten two year olds going to post here for this 6F Group 2 Richmond Stakes where there is very little previous soft ground form.
Simon & Ed Crisford's runner Vandeek made a remarkable winning debut at Nottingham a fortnight ago when falling out of the stalls, losing some 10 lengths but ran on like a smart horse to win going away by 3/4L at the end. That was on good to soft ground so he may well be less inconvenienced by the ground conditions than most. He looks the one to beat with the Irish runner Unquestionable now a non runner.
The other runner at the head of the market is Clive Cox’s Jasour who ran out a 2L winner of the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket three weeks ago at the July Meeting but has to shoulder a 3lb penalty here and has only run on fast ground (he was pulled out on his debut run at Newmarket in May due to soft ground) so may well struggle on the prevailing ground.
Sketch looked good on his debut twelve days when winning by 5L at Newbury and is another who could be prominent if handing the ground.
It’s Vandeek for me to prove his debut win was no flash in the pan.
VANDEEK 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor
  Goodwood 15:00 Just the six have declared for this St Leger trial, the John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes, a Group 3 contest run over 12F for three year olds only. Four of the sextet are proven on soft ground with the duo who which aren’t being Burdett Road who also has plenty on and Canberra Legend and that pair are first two to be dismissed. Chesspiece looked good up at Hamilton a fortnight ago winning the Glasgow Stakes when making all and could well attempt similar tactics here today for father and son duo Simon & Ed Crisford. William Haggas’s Desert Hero is taking a step up in class having won a valuable handicap at Royal Ascot and has won on soft and heavy ground so will handle conditions better than most whilst Ralph Beckett’s Artistic Star was a two year old maiden winner on soft ground and having finished 7th in the Derby ran third to King Of Steel at Royal Ascot. The one i like though is the Aiden O’Brien runner Espionage who is the highest rated of the sextet and has the services of Ryan Moore. A runner up (beaten a head) on heavy ground in a Group 1 as a juvenile he made a winning re-appearance in listed company at Roscommon a month ago and can take this en route to a tilt at the St Leger which he is currently a top priced 8/1 chance. I’ll be backing him for today’s race and is also worth chancing ante-post for the St Leger run at Doncaster in September.   ESPIONAGE 2 points win @ 15/8 bet365 ESPIONAGE (St Leger) 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5 123   Goodwood 15:35 Just the six line up here for the day’s feature race, the 10f Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes for three year olds and upwards fillies and mares. It’s a fascinating match up with the top French three year old against the best of her elders of her own sex. Blue Rose Cen is a very smart filly trained by Christopher Head who trains in France. She has won the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks this season in good style, winning the latter by 4L under Aurelian Lemaire who is in the saddle today. She has plenty of form on soft and even heavy ground so conditions will hold no fears for the French challenger. She is however rated 2lb inferior to last year’s winner, the John & Thady Gosden trained Nashwa who found her form in no uncertain manner when bolting up in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting last month coming home 5L to the good from Remarquee. She too has form on very soft ground so conditions shouldn’t hinder her too much. It’s a fascinating match up and I fully expect them to fight out the finish. At the respective prices I’ll have to go with Hollie Doyle and Nashwa but it will be no shock if the French filly wins. Roger Varian’s Al Husn actually beat Nashwa at Newcastle on the all-weather track back in June but she’s not certain to be as suited by wet turf and I expect Nashwa to turn the tables here today. Aiden O’Brien’s Never Ending Story is held by Nashwa on Newmarket form and this is a race to watch and savour with my selection being Nashwa.   NASHWA 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365   All odds were available at time of writing  

Zero return 🤮.

returned £6.60 (quickthorn 16/1 BOG)