yossa6133

It's the betting forecast from my data supplier that I use.

Day 4 returned £3.67 with a win and a place. Tronador might have won with a better ride.

1.5pts e/w-3.35  GW- MR WAGYU 20/1 bog  6places 4th 7.2pts Returned (R4 5p)
0.75pts e/w - 3.35 GW- HYPERFOCUS 40/1 not bog  6places  LOST
1pt e/w - 2.25 GW- TORCELLO 20 bog 4places- 4th 4.60pts returned (R4 10p)
1pt e/w-2.25 GW- EUCHEN GLEN 20/1 bog 4 places- 3rd 4.60pts Returned (R4 10p) 
2pts e/w- 5.20 GW- GREATGRAIDAIN 12/1 bog 4places VOID

Funny bet for me today .  A combination of @The Brigadier and @richard-westwood.  Richard's post came after the Brigadiers so they are more like saver bets
Lattam 5 pts win at 6.24, Tacarib 2 pt win at 8.7, Blue For You 1.50 w at 9.4, Awaal 1.50 w at 10.5 and Johan 1 pt w at 42 (um at 30.0 but as its an outsider I expect it to get matched during the day) = 11 points staked.
Out until after lunch time so don't know when I can have another look
Good luck to all
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Had 3.50 points the Gdwd Comp
Johan still not matched at  42.  I will let it cancel at inplay.  can't win from stall 18 anyway
poss 14.50 staked
 

300 good gold mile 
Awwaal   8.8 9/1 93 94 
Johan   8.6 36.0  70 70 89 
Blue for you   8.5 11/1  94 83 97 
Tough race and ground makes it more complicated .....Rhoscolyn  did me a favour the other day but I'm hoping this is too quick for him ...I'll die if he wins,again !! ...... this is only race I like today so let's go for it ...10pt wins top 3 and hope johan bursts back to form    cmon me beauty !!😜

1.5pts e/w 3.00 GW  - RHOSCOLYN 18/1 6places not bog
1.5pts e/w 3.00 GW  - JOHAN 28/1 6places not bog
1.5pts e/w 1.50 GW - THE GRAND VISIR 5 places not bog (oops 18//1)
9pts invested

Day 4 picks

Friday 

# Name Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Total 1 harry_rag £37.86 £0.00 £4.20     £42.06 2 Paperclip £0.00 £3.77 £21.97     £25.74 3 LeMale £0.00 £0.32 £23.80     £24.12 4 Zilzalian £6.60 £0.00 £0.42     £7.02 5 yossa6133 £0.00 £6.10 £0.75     £6.85 6 roger2256 £0.00 £2.60 £4.10     £6.70 7 Offramp £0.15 £0.23 £0.98     £1.36 8 MClarke £0.00 £0.60 £0.75     £1.35 9 Kroni £0.23 £0.21 £0.50     £0.94 10 BBBC £0.00 £0.60 £0.32     £0.92 11 Lee Grays £0.00 £0.30 £0.00     £0.30 12 Tedthewolf £0.20 £0.00 £0.00     £0.20 13 tonythepaint £0.00 £0.00 £0.00     £0.00 14 The Equaliser £0.00 £0.00 £0.00     £0.00 15 Villa Chris £0.00 £0.00 £0.00     £0.00 Well done to @LeMale for getting the best return of the day and to @Paperclip for not being far short. I retain my somewhat unlikely lead, for another day at least!

Stewards cup 
Apollo one  9.2 15.5 
Orazio     9.0 11/2 
Myms tipple  8.7 
Badri   8.7 
Kings Lynn  8.6 
Let's finish the week off with a bang ....10pt wins top 2 
 

The final day of five of the Goodwood Festival concludes with the feature race being the competitive Stewards Cup run at 15:35, one of four races shown by the ITV cameras who also take in a brace of races from Newmarket. The ground has dried up over the past two days at both courses but with plenty of rain around today I expect the tracks to be riding on the soft side again. Here’s my thoughts and selections on how to beat the bookmakers.   Goodwood 13:50 We start the days festivities off with the Coral Stewards’ Sprint Handicap run over 6F, a consolation race for those that didn’t make the cut for the Stewards Cup later on the card. Only fourteen are left here and to be honest it has a very modest look about it. The Harry & Roger Charlton trained Zaman Jemil has been chalked up the early favourite under Ryan Moore having won an eight runner handicap at Thirsk 31 days ago. He’s been raised 6lb for that run and as this is an early closing closing race he carries a 6lb penalty so is racing off of his correct mark. He’s lightly raced so could have improvement to come but he’s unproven on soft ground so at his current price can be left alone. Many A Star took this last year for the father and son team of Paul & Oliver Cole and returns here on a 2lb lower mark so is weighted to run well but were the ground to ride soft then that could be a major problem for him as he has no form on soft and has actually been pulled out before due to a soft surface. One horse who won’t mind any cut in the ground is Alice Hayne’s Live In The Moment whose soft ground form figures read 4116. He’s 3lb lower than his last winning mark and although he’s drawn on the outside I think he’s worth chancing to small stakes here each way with 7lb claimer Shariq Mohd on board who’s won five of his 69 career rides.   LIVE IN THE MOMENT 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345   Newmarket 14:05 The first of two races shown by Ed and the gang at ITV at the Headquarters of British racing is this 6F class 2 fillies nursery where we have four last time out winners amongst a field of ten. Say Hello looks the one to beat for trainer Ralph Beckett and jockey Rob Hornby having spread eagled her field on her handicap debut in first time blinkers over course and distance 8 days ago on good to soft ground. The handicapper has had his say by lumping her up 13lb for that victory but she looks the one to be with here. Alice Hayne’s Snafiya is chasing a hat trick following two wins on soft ground on her last starts at Doncaster and Thirsk since joining from George Boughey and will appreciate any further rain. Hugo Palmer’s Tierney was a 28/1 winner at Haydock on fast ground four weeks ago and has to cope with a 7lb rise and significantly different ground conditions today. Top weight Woodhay Wonder has a Group 2 Lowther Stakes entry for York and wasn’t totally disgraced in a four runner Group 2 contest over course and distance at the July meeting. She has claims but I’m sticking with last week’s impressive winner Say Hello despite the big rise in the weights.   SAY HELLO 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill   Goodwood 14:25 A cracking contest up next, The Coral Summer handicap, a class 2 handicap run over 1M 6F for three year olds and upwards. Fourteen have declared and we have a short enough favourite here in the John & Thady Gosden trained Sweet William who stepped forward at Newbury last time when winning a 2M handicap cosily by 3L. He’s been raised 7lb for that win and is dropping back 2F here. He must go well although he has yet to race on soft ground although his dam won listed races on soft and heavy so there must be every chance she’ll handle it well. Others with chances include Alan King’s top weight HMS President who ran so well at Royal Ascot (3rd won since) but is racing off of a career high mark today. Frankie Dettori’s mount Adjuvant was beaten a neck by HMS President at Newmarket in May on soft ground over this trip and is 3lb better off at these weights. Not disgraced in two starts since including when fifth in the Northumberland Plate he can run well and is the pick of these each way. Both the William Haggas trained Post Impressionist and Sir Mark Prescott trained Ominiscient are improvers but both have never raced on ground as soft as today’s whilst the same can be said about the bottom weight He’s A Latchio trained by Gary Moore. I backed the old boy Euchen Glen in this race last year when he was poorly ridden and flashed home to finish third beaten 1 1/4L looking unlucky and although he’s now 10 years old he will be 6lb lower here and it would certainly not be a shock were he to feature at the finish at a big price. The bet here though is Adjuvant for the Michael Bell team with a saver on favourite Sweet William who if coping with the ground could blow these away.   ADJUVANT 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 SWEET WILLIAM 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365   Newmarket 14:40 Eleven fillies and mares line up for this 1M 4F listed Chalice Stakes. It looks a weak listed contest with the highest rated being the Irish challenger Amusement trained by Donnacha O’Brien who is officially rated 7lb and upwards better than her ten rivals. She has won only one of her ten starts and that came in a six runner Leopardstown handicap on heavy ground back in May. She’s run well enough since in pattern company and under Gavin Ryan should be going very close here. John & Thady Gosden saddle two fillies looking for black type in Spring Fever who was disappointing last time in a Newbury handicap and Sweet Memories a Newbury novice stakes winner a fortnight ago. The Godolphin runner is Sunset Point trained by Charlie Appleby stepping out of handicap company and she also has claims. I wanted to take the favourite on but the more I looked at the race the more I came back to her so it’s Amusement to small stakes for me.   AMUSEMENT 1 point win @ 13/8 BetVictor   Goodwood 15:00 Eight have declared for the Group 2 1M 6F Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes for three year old and upwards fillies and mares. The warm favourite is the John & Thady Gosden trained Free Wind who on official ratings is 6lb and more superior to her seven rivals. She won the Lancashire Oaks last season on her only run on a soft surface so there shouldn’t be any problems on that score with the only negative being her flat run last time out when fifth (beaten 3L) in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. She’s stepping up a quarter of a mile and on softer ground today and can give Frankie Dettori a Group 1 winner on his final day riding at Glorious Goodwood. Roger Varian sprung a surprise in the big fillies Group 1 with Al Husn on Thursday here and saddles Peripatetic who has a good track record of two wins from three starts but has never run on a slow surface. The Charlton’s Time Lock has became a disappointing horse and even with Ryan Moore on top is overlooked whilst Ralph Beckett’s River Of Stars is maybe the biggest threat to the favourite. She ran second in a Group 2 at Longchamp over this trip last time which was a career best and under Rossa Ryan can chase Free Wind home.   FREE WIND 2 points win @ 6/5 William Hill   Goodwood 15:35 Today’s feature race is the class 2 6F Coral Stewards Cup for three year olds and upwards and is one of the trickiest sprint handicaps of the season. The draw is very much a talking point here and over recent year’s its paid to be with very high or very low although because of all the rain we’ve had this week its not set in stone. Top of any list has to be the Charlie Hills trained Orazio, a lightly raced four year old who is highly rated by his trainer who has already been on the score sheet this meeting. He may have found the ground a bit on the fast side in the Wokingham when finishing sixth (beaten 2 1/2L) and can turn the tables on the three that finished ahead of him that day - Apollo One, Juan Les Pins and Mums Tipple and looks sure to be thereabouts from stall 6 under Jim Crowley, fresh from winning two Group Ones in the last week on Hukum and Al Husn although he’s been well found in the market. Hills also saddles Tanmawwy who wont mind the conditions and drawn two away from his stable mate in stall 8 is capable of featuring. Rumstar was my ante post pick alongside Orazio but I feel that ease in the ground has gone against him I’m afraid. Of those drawn high on the near stands side Kevin Ryan’s Bielsa has the assistance of Ryan Moore and wont mind conditions from stall 26 and can go well alongside Julie Camacho’s Significantly (stall 28) who arrives in great form having won at Haydock prior to a good second at Ascot a week ago over 5F. She maybe best at that trip mind. As long as the ground is soft the selection however is the Kevin Ryan trained Aleezdancer whose form figures when the word soft appears in the going description reads 6135119611. He’s had excuses for his last few starts but on soft ground can run a big race in first time cheek pieces under Neill Callan. I’ll take him from stall 2 and Bielsa from stall 26 to have one on either side of the track at double figure odds although I must have a win only saver on the favourite Orazio as I don’t want to lose on the race. Here’s hoping Kevin Ryan strikes in the day’s big handicap.   ALEEZDANCER 1 point each way @ 20/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 123456 BIELSA 1 point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456 ORAZIO 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365   All odds were available at time of writing.  

Mini Magna 6:30 Bath (10/3 PP, Betfair, Betvictor). Put in the tracker after a very close 2nd last time out. This doesn't seem any better so no reason he can't go close again.
Bet365 have boosted to 4/1 so I cashed out and reloaded.
 
He's on the right side of the head bob this time to pay for the takeaway 😋

Mini Magna 6:30 Bath (10/3 PP, Betfair, Betvictor). Put in the tracker after a very close 2nd last time out. This doesn't seem any better so no reason he can't go close again.
Bet365 have boosted to 4/1 so I cashed out and reloaded.
 
He's on the right side of the head bob this time to pay for the takeaway 😋

Mini Magna 6:30 Bath (10/3 PP, Betfair, Betvictor). Put in the tracker after a very close 2nd last time out. This doesn't seem any better so no reason he can't go close again.
Bet365 have boosted to 4/1 so I cashed out and reloaded.
 
He's on the right side of the head bob this time to pay for the takeaway 😋

Mini Magna 6:30 Bath (10/3 PP, Betfair, Betvictor). Put in the tracker after a very close 2nd last time out. This doesn't seem any better so no reason he can't go close again.
Bet365 have boosted to 4/1 so I cashed out and reloaded.
 
He's on the right side of the head bob this time to pay for the takeaway 😋

The big handicap at Goodwood on Friday is the Golden Mile. This heritage handicap is open to 3-year-olds or older and, as the name suggests, is run over exactly 1 mile. The off time is 15.00.
22 go to post and with some bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it a good betting proposition.
 
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
If you back a horse that is not drawn low you might as well tear your betting ticket up! There have been 103 horses drawn in stalls 8 or higher and they have all lost.
Shorter priced horses have a good record. Those with odds of 6/1 or less have 4 wins from 14 runs with a profit of 14 points.
Horses that did not finish in the 1st 11 last time have a record of 0 wins from 42 runs.
 
This leaves just 1 horse.
LATTAM 4/1
I suggest backing this each way with bookmakers offering 6 places.

Thursday return : £21.97

1 place so a whole 32p returned.
That's why @LeMale is the boss and I am merely his assistant ...

One winner and double the odds, so that answers that question! I suppose it was likely given that I’m still getting BOG with them. Time to start doing a daily L15?

2 winners = £23.80 

Day 3 returns 75 pence. 
Some pretty dreadful runs there.

Day 3 returns 75 pence. 
Some pretty dreadful runs there.

Couple of winners returned £6.10. 
La Isla was well backed and looked like she might win 2F out, but not quite. Almost went Magical Sunset and e/w which would have been nice.

Galway 2:45
Soulness
each way