MCLARKE

No it's not a selection mate. If r/p forecast price is 1/4 or less it's not a selection. 

CATTERICK 3.15
LUCKY LUCKY MAN 10/1
£20 WIN BET365
 
 

Tuesday 27/10/2020
Catterick 02:45 MAIN FACT
f/c. 2/7
Stake =  10 pts. WIN

CATTERICK 3.15
LUCKY LUCKY MAN 10/1
£20 WIN BET365
 
 

2.15- Joie de vivre 
Mastercraftsman mare looks of interest on soft going. Only time she encountered it on the flat, won easily. Showed promise on handicap debut at Sedgefield, she slipped coming around the final bend losing momentum, but rallied for second, turned out too quickly few days later over extra distance & unsuitable ground, given a rest now back in trip & getting soft & getting capable claimer up taking 7lb off I think a big run is in order. Slightly put off at the drift, I've had a few shekels on at 4/1.
 
 

this month + 471.75
Having another go at getting a short priced double .....
Gal 3.00 - Beacon Edge 5/4
Gal 3.35 - Lieutenant Command 11/8
prices bet365 bog
£20 double

Sunday 25/10/2020
Wincanton 03:27 OSCARS MOONSHINE
f/c. 11/10
Stake =  10 pts. WIN

I don't normally bet on NH until November but with Cheltenham being on ITV I'll have a small punt.
2.10 Not a lot of data to go on but horses with forecast odds of 5/2 - 7/1 have an AE of 1.53. This leaves :-
BOTOX HAS 6/1 BET365
STRATAGEM 8/1 BET365
 
 

that’ll do 

Apologies, thought I was looking at the table for the 21st, not the 20th.

returns 121.88, profit 101.88
this month + 471.75

2 winners and an unlucky 3rd at 25/1 .....finished +51 pts on a dull rainy day ...I'll take that anytime 

2nd @ 11/1
1st @ 13/2
Nowhere
2nd @ 20/1
2nd @ 15/2
5th @ 25/1
 
Bit frustrating but can't complain. 

I don't normally bet on NH until November but with Cheltenham being on ITV I'll have a small punt.
2.10 Not a lot of data to go on but horses with forecast odds of 5/2 - 7/1 have an AE of 1.53. This leaves :-
BOTOX HAS 6/1 BET365
STRATAGEM 8/1 BET365
 
 

Cheltenham 2.40
4 runner novice chase. Analysis suggests top or joint top weight and to exclude CD winners. This gives an AE of 1.28. It eliminates 2 of the runners and leaves :
NOT THAT FUISSE 7/2 BET365
SOUTHFIELD STONE 15/8 UNIBET

I don't normally bet on NH until November but with Cheltenham being on ITV I'll have a small punt.
2.10 Not a lot of data to go on but horses with forecast odds of 5/2 - 7/1 have an AE of 1.53. This leaves :-
BOTOX HAS 6/1 BET365
STRATAGEM 8/1 BET365
 
 

There are a couple of decent class 2 handicaps at Doncaster over 10 and 12 furlongs. There have been 126 such races over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-
Draw = 1. AE = 1.59. A very strong statistic with a strike rate of 21%.
Weight < 9st 1lb. AE = 1.15. As the going becomes heavier towards the end of the season then higher weights struggle.
Horse bred in UK. AE = 1.13. I don't have a great deal of knowledge of breeding but the country of breeding is quite influential in some instances. I suspect it is not used by many people in the selection process so it may provide a betting edge.
Age = 3 or 4. AE = 1.10. As the season progresses the younger horses tend to mature and perform better.
Forecast odds > 7/2. Again as the season progresses the weather and going becomes more variable and form becomes less reliable which impacts on the profitability of favourites.
Top rated in the 1.10 is CEPHEUS 1.15 - 13/2 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the weight, although it is heavily influenced by being drawn 1.
There are 3 joint 2nd with a rating of 1.08.
ICONIC CHOICE 9/1 BET365
FISHABLE 4/1 BET365
TULIP FIELDS 9/1 BET365
In the 2.20 the top rated is ISHVARA 1.08 - 8/1 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the draw.
Rated 2nd is ABEL HANDY 1.05- 22/1 BET365. This horse is drawn 1 but is a 5yo bred in Ireland.
 

Cheltenham 2.40
4 runner novice chase. Analysis suggests top or joint top weight and to exclude CD winners. This gives an AE of 1.28. It eliminates 2 of the runners and leaves :
NOT THAT FUISSE 7/2 BET365
SOUTHFIELD STONE 15/8 UNIBET

I don't normally bet on NH until November but with Cheltenham being on ITV I'll have a small punt.
2.10 Not a lot of data to go on but horses with forecast odds of 5/2 - 7/1 have an AE of 1.53. This leaves :-
BOTOX HAS 6/1 BET365
STRATAGEM 8/1 BET365
 
 

There are a couple of decent class 2 handicaps at Doncaster over 10 and 12 furlongs. There have been 126 such races over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-
Draw = 1. AE = 1.59. A very strong statistic with a strike rate of 21%.
Weight < 9st 1lb. AE = 1.15. As the going becomes heavier towards the end of the season then higher weights struggle.
Horse bred in UK. AE = 1.13. I don't have a great deal of knowledge of breeding but the country of breeding is quite influential in some instances. I suspect it is not used by many people in the selection process so it may provide a betting edge.
Age = 3 or 4. AE = 1.10. As the season progresses the younger horses tend to mature and perform better.
Forecast odds > 7/2. Again as the season progresses the weather and going becomes more variable and form becomes less reliable which impacts on the profitability of favourites.
Top rated in the 1.10 is CEPHEUS 1.15 - 13/2 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the weight, although it is heavily influenced by being drawn 1.
There are 3 joint 2nd with a rating of 1.08.
ICONIC CHOICE 9/1 BET365
FISHABLE 4/1 BET365
TULIP FIELDS 9/1 BET365
In the 2.20 the top rated is ISHVARA 1.08 - 8/1 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the draw.
Rated 2nd is ABEL HANDY 1.05- 22/1 BET365. This horse is drawn 1 but is a 5yo bred in Ireland.
 

Apologies, thought I was looking at the table for the 21st, not the 20th.

Won.            Returned £90
Bank £435

returns 86.67, profit 66.67
this month +389.57

Result
Navan 03:05 EARLS..... Non-Runner
Wolverhampton 05:10 FROW..... 1st..4/7
Todays Profit =  + 5.71 pts
Current Years Profit 2020 =  - 10.00 pts 
 
(Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.)
(Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.)
(Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.)
(Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.)
(Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.)
(Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) 
(Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.)
(Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.)
(Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)   
(Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) 
Bank = + 2787.25 pts. 
Profit = + 2687.25 pts.   
Current Winning Run =  1

Result
Yarmouth 02:35 BOLLIN NEIL..... 3rd..3/1
Newcastle 04:10 TRAVELLER..... 1st..6/1
Fairyhouse 04:45 THEFAITHFULINDIAN..... 4th..11/10
Todays Profit =  + 40.00 pts
Current Years Profit 2020 =  - 15.71 pts 
 
(Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.)
(Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.)
(Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.)
(Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.)
(Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.)
(Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) 
(Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.)
(Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.)
(Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)   
(Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) 
Bank = + 2781. 54 pts. 
Profit = + 2681. 54 pts.   
Current Losing Run =  1