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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 8th March

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    This means the top 12% in any given race. So in a 10 runner race the top rated would be 1/10 = 10% andwould qualify, in a 11 runner race the top rated would be 1/11 = 9% and would qualify.

    So in larger fields there will be more than 1 qualifier, e.g. in a 28 runner handicap such as the Wokingham at Ascot the top rated would be 1/28 = 4%, the 2nd top rated will be 2/28 = 7% and the 3rd top rated will be 3/28 = 11%. All 3 will qualify.

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 8th March

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 3/8/2022 at 10:17 AM, Valiant Thor said:

    could give you some ideas

    Thanks for that VT, I always enjoyed SmartSig, often a lot of waffle in there but also a few golden nuggets.

    I was particularly interested in the article by Eric Bowers (he was 74 then in 2004), "Elimination Biases For Sprint Races".

    He had a thesis that he was going to pass on to his grandchildren but they didn't show any interest so he decided to pass it on to his fellow readers.

    The basic premise was to award points based on weight and forecast odds, the higher the weight and the shorter the odds the better.

    It took him 3 minutes 47 seconds to analyse 1 race. With the beauty of Excel I have been able to analyse 438 races in less than an hour.

    I was surprised how good the results were.

    The top 50% in each race generated 1,751 winners from 17,300 runners with a BSP profit of 1,393 points. The AE is 1.05.

    If I take the top 12% from each race the results are 467 winners fom 3,138 runners with a BSP of 1,264 points. The AE is a very impressive 1.28.

    Perhaps he had found the holy grail !

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