Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **

MCLARKE

Administrators
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,722

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    455

 Content Type 

Posts posted by MCLARKE

    Racing Chat -Saturday 4th February

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    The big betting race this Saturday is the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown. This premier handicap is run over 2 miles 7 furlongs and 98 yards and is open to horses aged 4 years or older.

    15 go to post and the off time is 2.55.

    Topofthegame won this in 2018 before going on to win at that year’s Cheltenham festival.

    Some bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race a good betting proposition.

    The race was abandoned in 2012, 2013 and 2014 due to the weather and there was no race in 2021 so there is a smaller size of data than the ideal but I'll have a bash anyway.

     

    I have looked at the statistics for this race and these are my key conclusions.

    1.       Those horses carrying lighter loads have a good record. Horses carrying less than 10st 11lbs have won 6 times from 50 attempts with a level stakes profit of £15. Their heavier opposition have a record of 1 win from 52 attempts with a loss of £46.

    2.       It is better to side with experienced horses. Those horses that have had more than 13 runs have produced 4 wins from 24 runs and a profit of £24. Their less experienced competitors have 3 wins from 78 runs and a loss of £55.

    3.       Outsiders have a poor record in this race. There have been 52 horses with forecast odds higher than 11/1 and all have lost.

    4.       It is best to sidestep those horses with obvious from. Horses that have had more than 3 wins in their last 10 runs have produced 0 wins from 7 runs. Having said that, there should be some evidence that a horse has winning form, there have been 11 horses with 0 wins in their last 10 runs and they have all lost.

     

    There are 2 horses that match these criteria.

    COQUELICOT – available at 10/1 with William Hill, 5 places.

    GREEN BOOK – available at 8/1 with BET365, 4 places. Green Book won this last year under the same jockey.

    Racing Chat-Thursday 2nd February.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

    The only thing i disapprove of in racing is losing, each to their own but there is a saying that there is no such thing as a gambling problem only a losing problem and like @Bang on says you keep doing the same things over and over resulting in losing over and over again. said previously you really do need to start again from scratch and at least lose your money on something new but with a chance of winning.

    Remember that it is a zero sum game.

    For those of us who manage to scrape a profit we need an awful lot of people to make losses.

    That is why I always tend to go against the crowd because the crowd must lose.

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    58 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

    i am sure you will do the ew if you want to i just tack a 5 bob ew acca on just in case. and for accounting purposes the ew could be calculated along side the win and if it shows it is viable then fair enough but my 25/1 winner dble odds must have negated a few of those ew pennys if you are going to stick to 3 quid a day. big error on my part today i should have gone with "with respect" looks like Gumball was not even trying 10/1 out to 33/1 tells the tale.

    We'll stick with win but I would imagine that overall the profits would be higher (or losses lower) if we went each way but only in races where extra places were on offer.

    Racing Chat-Friday 18th November.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 11/19/2022 at 1:05 AM, MCLARKE said:

    The optimum period is 184 days to 265 days. For this period the AE is 1.07. They have made a profit in each of the last 9 years. The sample size is smaller but still over 14,000.

    In the race you mention this would reduce the field from 9 to 5 !

    I will keep a check on these over the next few weeks, as you would expect most of the runners are in November. There will be a lot of selections, over 30 per day. 

    The only additional criteria is that those with odds of over 50/1 will be excluded.

    Again this continues to be profitable with an AE of 1.06 up to the end of January.

    Lovely Christmas dinner but.......is it Boxing Day yet?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 1/1/2023 at 2:18 PM, MCLARKE said:

    I've had a quick look at trainers based on last 6 years January data.

    I've sorted by number of runners and then looked at those trainers with an AE greater than 1.02.

    Nicky Henderson is top but has made a loss for the last 3 years so I'll pass him by. 

    Next is Donald McCain Jnr with an AE of 1.21

    I'll apply just 1 filter and exclude runners at more than 2m4f as his record for the longer distances is poor with an AE of 0.76

    I'll also exclude those horses with forecast odds of 20/1 or higher as they also have a poor record

    All bets will be recorded at BSP

    This confirms to me that making profits from trainers is very difficult.

    A very poor return with 6 winners from 57 runners and a loss of 22 points. AE was 0.74.

    I've had a look at other options but struggled to find anything that gave a significant edge.

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 1/31/2023 at 5:53 PM, Zilzalian said:

    Then we need decide if we want to run for another month, can @MCLARKE if he has got sod all else to do ? produce a summary of this lot?

    Not pretty reading at the moment

    We have had 28 bets so far with only 2 winning days

    The loss to £1.50 daily bets is £27.88 (ROI - 66%)

    The results to level stakes are 

    image.png

    Maybe we should just leave it to @Zilzalian!

    @LEE-GRAYSstill living on his 200/1 winner ?

    The rest of us, can do better

    The big winner will obviously change everything

×
×
  • Create New...