MCLARKE
-
Posts
6,726 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
309
Posts posted by MCLARKE
-
-
6 hours ago, harry_rag said:
With respect I think you won’t find anything of any predictive value based on what happened in each team’s last game, I’d go as far as to say it would be of no relevance whatsoever.
You are probably right, it was just easier to calculate based on the last match. It was enough to put me off my initial assumption about the likelihood of draws. I suppose I've scratched the itch. I'll return to horse racing and just bet on football where there is a decent offer.
I suspect any forecasting models I develop will have already been developed by other football bettors. I'll have a bash before the new season starts, I think I did make a profit last time backing outsiders in the premier league where 1 bookie was offering higher odds than the average but the bets were few and far between.
-
On 3/21/2023 at 10:33 PM, harry_rag said:
I’d be fairly certain that more often than not one team’s run will be coming to an end! Whether the draw is more likely than in an average game I don’t know.
I've done some very basic research based on the 380 matches in the 2018/19 premier league (this must have been the last time I looked at football)
Average draw % 18.7%
Draw % when both teams either won or drew last time 16.8%
Very basic but doesn't support my theory
The highest draw % is 30.3% where the home team lost last time and the away team drew. Only 33 matches in the sample though so probably need more data before any conclusion can be drawn
Since it's coming to the end of the season I might put this on hold and investigate a few ideas before the start of the next season
-
Next match is Italy v England
Another tight match with Italy 7/4 and England at 13/8 for the win
Using my previous logic I would back England to win the match and 1st half and over 2 goals in the match at 7/1
Or back the home team at 15/2 ?
Or back BTTS instead of the over 2 goals at 10/1 for both teams ?
I am open to persuasion
-
Most winners
Lots of permutations with 9 days to go
-
-
4 hours ago, waynecoyne said:
What i meant was if they are 7/4 and others 2/1 i would rather take 7/4 with the early payout.
I suppose it depends on how often the 2 goal offer would turn a losing bet into a winning bet. By my maths in this instance you would need this to happen once every 11 matches, not sure that it happens this regularly.
-
1 hour ago, Nigwilliam said:
Returns. ? Are we settling these bets to price quoted or starting price?.
Personally it's whatever return I've made, assuming that the price is available at the time that I post
-
-
2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
Now if you think that is bad consider this.- Our time is limited, the bookies time is limited because once AI gets up and running it will be used by punters and AI doesn't make mistakes when picking selections like we do so imagine if it is just 2% more accurate than say the average money making punter at picking winners it will pretty much put them out of business and if i can work this out you can be sure the bookies can. Before/as that gets fully going you will see 1/1 shots going down to 1/2 shots etc etc.
It is a sobering thought, I suspect that it is already happening with various bots, AI will make it worse. There again there are so many variables that even AI will struggle to pick the winner of every race. I expect there will still be profits to be made on Betfair by going against the crowd.
-
NH selection
Warwick 1.40
GREAT SAMOURAI
-
WARWICK 5.10
SALLYANN 50/1
BET365
-
29 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
You think that's bad news, they don't give me BOG at all. When I enquired as to why this was so, they told me that Bet365 frequently review policies in line with responsible gambling and that I had been excluded from their BOG offer. I have never had more than £200 deposited with them and my bets have always been small. I told them that I was a responsible gambler and wished to appeal, but they just would not discuss the matter further. I think I may have got an opening deal of £100 for joining in the good old days and they have been trying to get their own back on me ever since. This is why I now bet with Betfred. Their loss.
It's swings and roundabouts, I don't get any benefits from Betfred but I do from BET365 even though my profits from BET365 are much higher.
-
1 hour ago, harry_rag said:
I’d be fairly certain that more often than not one team’s run will be coming to an end! Whether the draw is more likely than in an average game I don’t know. I suspect it won’t be frequent enough to beat the odds. Obviously it depends on how you’re going to define a winning run and what sort of sample you can find. Kevin Pullein has probably written an article on the subject at some point.
Yep, I'm pretty sure that the ground I am looking at has been well trodden but it's piqued my interest so I'll spend a bit of time on it before returning to the safer haven of horse racing
-
39 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
I don’t think either of you are wrong in what you say and neither of you have said anything that can really be proved or refuted by stats! It might be a draw but won’t “most likely” be one. Even in a game where both teams are judged to have an equal chance of winning the draw will be the least likely result unless the game has an unusually low goals expectation.
I feel myself being drawn into the murky world of football betting !
I will have to dust down my footy stats and see what they say for the results when both teams are on a winning run.
-
34 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
I think on this occasion the opening prices slightly flattered the visitors especially given the team news. Siding with home team in some way seemed the best option.
Indeed, the odds were very close, 13/8 Wednesday and 7/4 Barnsley. You could well be right, picking the home team may be the best option, Barnsley to win the match and first half and total goals over 5 would have paid just under 60/1
-
24 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
NOW the draw is the most likely result!
Bugger !
Only watched the second half but Wednesday looked the better team but didn't take their chances. With Barry Bannan in the side I'm confident they'll get automatic promotion.
-
-
54 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
Just because two teams are unbeaten in a long run doesn't most likely mean it's gonna be a draw.. I'm for the hosts.
It seems logical but then again I'm no expert
Do you have any stats to prove / disprove it ?
-
-
2 hours ago, harry_rag said:
Another in the Barnsley camp @MCLARKE!
Wednesday unbeaten in 23, Barnsley in 11, suggests a draw might be the result.
I have a £20 free bet on a 0-0 draw with Mobile Wins. Not sure if you've used them but they have an excellent start up offer of a free £30 bet when you bet £10. Plus each Monday they have an offer of bet £50 and get a free £20 bet.
-
Plumpton 3.35
TOMMIE BEAU
£20 win BSP
-
NH selection
Wetherby 4.00
LORD OF KERAK
- azzybear, kensland and The Equaliser
-
3
-
CLONMEL 3.40
PEARL OF FLORIDA 50/1
BV
-
Apologies, I missed the EW bit. I will amend in the next table.
DAILY LUCKY 15
in At The Races
Posted
I thought Coral was the same as Ladbrokes, 8am on the day ?