Charon84
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Posts posted by Charon84
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After a lot of football betting the fun was gone and I now only focus on NFL. Mostly 1-2 bets a week. Trying to hit 80% rate. Last season it was 75%. Before that one it was +-65%. For Week 1 I had Chiefs -3.5 @2.05.
Looking for Week 2 spots now. Tempted by the Cowboys -4.5, Rams -2.5. Later this week I will finalize bet(s).
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Bit late, but I have Vikings (-5.5), Ravens (-6.5), Broncos (-3.0), Rams (-3.0), Steelers (-5.5) and Packers (-7.5).
Most worried about the Packers. Took them before the Mack trade. Steelers also some little concern because I thougth Bell would play.
This my first year as NFL bettor
hoping for glory.
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To be honest...the bets didn't work out as expected. It could easily have been 3-0 and 2-2 (and any other outcome). Ajax was the better team, created more, but Sturm had also some strong chances.
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Dolberg, important striker Ajax, is almost certainly out for this match. I took Sturm +1.25AH @2.16.
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I mixed up a lot of 'stats' from other sides and my own thoughts and I came up with Patriots, Jags, Eagles and Saints as 1-2 teams from each conference. 6 weeks from now and the NFL starts again! Nice.
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Sturm Graz +1.25AH @2.16 (and still rising) is good value bet in my opinion. I don't see why Ajax is seen as a big/huge favorite here. The friendlies, even with strong(est) line-ups, didn't show anything promising. Lack of creativity. First 'real' match of the season and Ajax is simply not ready.
Sturm Graz on the other hand had a decent prep-campaign (not real tough opponents) and will try to get a result here. Draw is enough. I expect them to park the bus and I don't see Ajax getting trough with more than +1 goal (if they get trough at all).
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PSV - AZ 3:2. What a weird match. All in all I think PSV was the better team here (though both teams alternated for dominace/control/threats every 10-15 minutes), but it really could have been 3-0, 0-3, 2-2 etc. Both teams missed a lot of chances. Most remarkable feat; PSV did play 2 levels above the Osijek matches. So that is something to keep in mind in the fortcoming matches. Anyhow, I'm happy. Up to Heracles Ajax!
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At least both odds are dropping. AZ +1.50 is @1.71 average now. Thats 19 cents drop. Main line is now +1.25. Ajax -1.00 @1.72 also had a line change to -1.25 @1.74. -1.00 is not really available anymore.
Most of the times this means I was on the good side of the analysis. No matter the exact outcome. Odds were simply too high. I'm already happy!
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Can't help it as a Dutchmen so I have to bet on Eredivisie too
For this round I fancy AZ +1.50 @1.90 against PSV real hard. PSV lost several good players (Propper, Moreno, Guardado, Willems) and maybe others are going as well, but probably not before the season opener. The effect of these losses? Well I simply refer to the Osijek matches (0-1 and 1-0 losses). No creativity, problems scoring goals (as was the problem in prep matches). Against AZ, who did well to keep the team in tact, in the season opener I think the handicap is too big. I forsee a draw here or a narrow loss for AZ, but I can't imagine they will loose with 2+ goals. Don't forget that the preparation of AZ was decent/good (wins against Udinese, Brugge, Malaga and Cambuur / loss against Panathinaikos).
I also fancy Ajax -1 @1.70 against Heracles. I did see a good Ajax for moments against both Nice mathces. Strong play, pressure, threats, chances etc. Furthermore most of the preparation opponents were decent/good teams. Weder Bremen (L), Genk (D), PAOK (W), Lyon (L), Hull (D). Ajax is definately ready for this first match (although they still want re-inforcements in defending department, which they are working on due the fact they signed a defender today). Heracles on the other hand is definately not ready for this match up. All 'serious' matches in preparation were lost (Viktoria Koln [Regionalliga], Granada, Emmen), while the team had a dramatic performance against Emmen. Ajax shall not slip 3 points here. I expect them to win easy, but because of the fact it's (1) a season opener, (2) away, (3) still dealing with the news around Nouri I can't take the -1.25+ AH available.
This is all for this round.
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I think Koeman knows very well that top 4 is just an illusion. I think 5-7 is more realistic. Why are you not convinced by the new signings? Ofcourse Lukaku is a big loss, as well as Deulofeu (and maybe Barkley, who's injured right now) but the signings are normally speaking strong enough to make it to the number 5-7 spots.
Odds on City dropped a little bit, but I can't make up my mind yet. Have to wait what they will do
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As said in the Premier League topic I fancy Everton a lot in this match. I was lucky to get them -2.00AH @1.72 already. I can't imagine Everton won't win this match very easy.
I read on the web that Ruzomberok lost players in attacking department and replacements aren't the same quality. But even with those players it still is a massive difference in quality. Everton lost Lukaku and Deulofeu, but apart from that they improved every line with good/strong signings.
Ruzomberok struggled in first qualification round and second (in both they lost 1 match) against weak opponents, now they meet a strong Premier League team that eyes a good EL run. In front of Everton crowd for the first 'real' match this season I don't think Koeman's players will let that one slip and Everton will win 2-3+ goals IMO where 3 goals is more likely.
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I want to focus on Premier League (teams), AH bets, this season. For the first round I really think there are a lot of games to stay away from.
Arsenal - Leicester: Arsenal -1.25AH @1.85 in the opening match of the season against Leicester doesn't look good to me. In my opinion it can go a lot of ways. There is no value on Leicester for the same reason. Maybe if Mahrez will be sold, I'm more declined to bet Arsenal, but even then I find -1.25AH too much. Arsenal isn't the most consistent team for betting purposes IMO.
Watford - Liverpool: Liverpool -0.75AH @1.75...neh....first match of season, away, how do new players perform...too much questions for a good bet at those odds. I think odds are right.
Chelsea - Burnley: Chelsea -1.75AH @1.77 . Expect Chelsea to fire up from the beginning, but is that worth 2+ goals win against Burnley in first match @1.77? Questionable. If odds rise towards @2.00 I will reconsider, but I guess that won't happen.
Palace - Huddersfield: really don't have a clue about what to expect in this stage of the season...so I don't do anything here. Though I fancy De Boer as coach
so I'll closely watch them in forthcoming matches.
Everton - Stoke: my second bet this season (first bet is Everton -2.00AH @1.72 against Ruzomberok in EL). Everton did really well in transfer market with improvements in every line, despite loss of Lukaku and Deulofeu. I think Everton can repeat the positive 2016/2017 season and maybe will be the suprise of the season. Stoke on the other hand lost in quality, while they aren't that strong at the first place. Together with the fact that Everton plays home and already played 2 'real' games at that point, I think -0.75AH @1.89 is really good value). Everton can win by a 1-2 goal margin.
Southampton - Swansea: same as Palace comment.
WBA - Bournemouth: same as Palace comment.
Brighton - Man. City: City -1.25AH @1.84 looks good to me already, but maybe odds will rise a little bit. Brighton just promoted, which means they are to be expected fighting against relegation. City on the other hand will compete for champions. Guns will blaze directly because quality difference is huge. I think line will change to -1.50AH towards KO.
Newcastle - Tottenham: how will Tottenham fare (as people already posted in this thread)? That's a question that will be answered in the first matches of the season. Opening against Newcastle away won't be easy for them so I'm looking at Newcastle right now. But still Newcastle +0.75AH @1.85 is weak. I want them higher before I even start to think about betting that line.
Man. Utd. - West Ham: last 2 seasons Man Utd didn't do very well. The team struggled. They have improved, but how does that effect the play? I want to watch how it will deploy, so don't bet on them now. West Ham will be fighting relegation I think, but the line, +1.50AH @2.03 holds no value. Man Utd can easily draw, win by 1 goal margin or trash West Ham.
So for now only Everton -0.75AH @1.89 and maybe City -1.25AH @1.84.
- StevieDay1983 and Redno2009
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Premier League Predictions > Jan 10th - 12th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted · Edited by Charon84
Odds on Tottenham - Liverpool for Under 3.00 are 1.90 at my bookie. I think it's a good bet:
All-in-all I don't see many goals coming in. Why not Under 2.50? Well the possibility margin isn't huge as 1-2 / 0-3 (and even 1-3 [I think a Tottenham win is out of the question]) are also possible outcomes under these circumstances. I don't want to take that risk either and 1.90 is absolutely good enough for me.