Charon84
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Posts posted by Charon84
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Do higher totals means 'better'? If that's the case I think a lot of adjustments have to be made in Defence section and several in Attack section.
What do you mean with Supremacy?
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On 8/19/2021 at 1:35 PM, PercyP said:
Hi Charon84,
The reason I believe the Titans have improved is the signing of Julio Jones and Bud Dupree. Titans rely to much on Dererk Henry smashing his way through. Julio will keep the defence guessing. Improvements were needed to the Titans defence, Dupree will help. Injury to colts qb will also help Titans record (expect 10-7) and reach play offs.
Fully agree with your comments on Browns, great to watch need to see the grit to win the Super Bowl.
The panthers were unlucky last year, losing key player Colin McCaffrey early and losing 5 games by 5 points or less including losing at the Chiefs by just 2 points. If they can repeat that form with McCaffrey back they will improve on their 5-11 record. Expect 7/9 wins.
Charon keeping your comments coming. Always keen to see other views. If you were to pick 4 from each division to reach the Super Bowl who would you choose?
Do Titans have enough firepower with one X-reciever? Don't know, but I agree they will win division since Wentz injury. From there on it depends on a whole lot of factors.
Do you think Panthers are a dark horse just because McCaffrey will be back? It isn't enough for me
NFC: Buccs, Packers, WFT, Rams (but here there is a little bit of bias
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AFC: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Patriots
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Titans I don't agree. They didn't improve that much to be worth mentioning.
Browns do have a great squad, but question marks are still with QB Mayfield. Can he be consistent? Was last year an exception? Don't know. Somehow I want to see it first before I can believe.
I read more people are marking Panthers as a dark horse. I think it's still a team that needs 1-3 years to be a dark horse. They did improve though.
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5 hours ago, Charon84 said:
AZ - Plzen: can't see AZ winning this one. They had a hard time scoring in recent friendlies against weak opponents and their best attacking player Stengs isn't likely to start. Also Vlaar, the most experienced player, is doubtful to start. Plzen looks better here and certainly at these odds (@3.89). Weather is stormy, empty stadium. So the Under 2.50 (@1.98) is strong alternative/second bet.
Stengs and Vlaar are both in the lineup. Will make a difference so now my advice is 'avoid match'. Can go both ways but still Under looks great.
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EDIT: SEE POST FURTHER DOWN FOR NEW IMPORTANT INFO
AZ - Plzen: can't see AZ winning this one. They had a hard time scoring in recent friendlies against weak opponents and their best attacking player Stengs isn't likely to start. Also Vlaar, the most experienced player, is doubtful to start. Plzen looks better here and certainly at these odds (@3.89). Weather is stormy, empty stadium. So the Under 2.50 (@1.98) is strong alternative/second bet.
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Getafe DNB @1.96 is a gift at the moment:
- Ajax will most likely play with second goalie Varela (Onana is suspended). If that's the case....well....just try to find videomaterial from the Utrecht (Y) - Ajax (Y) match yesterday (7-2, 3 big mistakes Varela). This guy can't be trusted.
- Ajax willl most likely miss important players like Veltman, Promes and Neres. Maybe Ziyech/Babel isn't also fit, but for now Ajax thinks they will be ready at time. Labyad also injured at this moment, but he isn't "important". In recent matches the injuries of Promes and Ziyech were truly felt. Far less danger from attacks.
- Getafe at home is very strong. They've lost just 5 in 35 matches (! 2x Barcelona, Basel, Real Madrid and Leganes).
- Getafe strong performance last week with 3-0 win over Valencia. Recent form also good.
Maybe Ajax will get a point here, but it's far more likely they'll will go home with 0 points.
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On 1/30/2020 at 1:37 PM, Charon84 said:
Tempted with Southampton +2 (@1.61) or +1.75AH (@1.83). Southampton in good form after the break, no important injuries, good scoring averages. I think Liverpool will have a much more difficult game then the WHU match. In the end I suspect them to win, but with a 1 or 2 goal margin (my lean to 1). Will think about this one.
And the Over 2.50 (@1.57), 2.75 (@1.69) and 3.00 (@1.90) look promising too. Liverpool shows vulnerability in every match, but time after time the opponent strikers don't punish it. Ings won't be that guy.
Can't make up my mind. For sure I forfeit the Southampton +XXAH bets. Liverpool too strong, Southampton odds too low.
And doubting about the Over also. My mind is going the other way now. Liverpool controls matches. And can Ings, one player, make the difference in this match against Gomez, Van Dijk and Alisson? Maybe the Under 3.00 and 3.25 and 3.5 is a better bet.
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8 minutes ago, thfc said:
But at odds of around 12s i'll pass, as I was expecting at least 15s, maybe 20s for Saints outright. For context, Palace were 29s a couple of weeks back at Man City, i'm not sure why Saints are as short as they are.
What does this mean?
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Tempted with Southampton +2 (@1.61) or +1.75AH (@1.83). Southampton in good form after the break, no important injuries, good scoring averages. I think Liverpool will have a much more difficult game then the WHU match. In the end I suspect them to win, but with a 1 or 2 goal margin (my lean to 1). Will think about this one.
And the Over 2.50 (@1.57), 2.75 (@1.69) and 3.00 (@1.90) look promising too. Liverpool shows vulnerability in every match, but time after time the opponent strikers don't punish it. Ings won't be that guy.
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6 hours ago, betcatalog said:
WEST HAM UNITED vs LIVERPOOL FC @@ +1.50 Ah WEST HAM UNITED, odds 1.85
I don't understand. Your text suggests that Liverpool will win, but in the end you bet +1.5AH WHU? Typo? And the odds also don't look right because odds are around 1.95-2.00 for the -/+ 1.5AH.
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WHU - Liverpool Under 3.00 @2.02 sounds good to me. I simply don't expect many goals here.
WHU will start defensively and try to punish mistakes from defensive side Liverpool. But I really doubt they are capable of putting the pressure on Liverpool in a way they'll force Liverpool to make those mistakes. And even then they'll still have to punish them for making those mistakes and that's not guaranteed with those strikers. 1.17 goals Average in PL this season is all the prove you need (while Liverpool concedes 0.65 Average in PL this season). So goals WHU? Probably 0, mabye 1.
Liverpool on the other hand will score some goals. But two important factors tell me that it won't be more then 2 or 3. Mane is out (11 goals, 20%) and Liverpool will meet next team, Southampton (better team then WHU), within 3 days from this match. So when there is a 0-2 lead, they won't do anything else then speed down the match and sit out.
Most likely outcome 0-2 and maybe 0-3. For that reason I didn't take Over 2.50.
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10 hours ago, Charon84 said:
Odds dropped significantly. Bit too late to make any Liverpool move right now. Maybe some value in Over/Under markets.
I'm relieved I didn't touch this match in the end
(with the main reasoning that in Cup matches everything is possible and we never can't be sure with B-team players)....
In Over/Under market I wanted to go for Under 3.00. That wouldn't work out as well.
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On 1/24/2020 at 10:42 AM, Charon84 said:
Liverpool already 1.47 for FA Cup. I know they will put in some 'B'-players but even then...they are playing against relegation candidate League One who certainly isn't in form. -1AH @1.77...very tempting.
Wouldn't touch the Over 2.50 @1.68 though. If Pool takes 0-2 lead, we can't be sure they score the third goal.
Will wait for some news who plays.
Odds dropped significantly. Bit too late to make any Liverpool move right now. Maybe some value in Over/Under markets.
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Liverpool already 1.47 for FA Cup. I know they will put in some 'B'-players but even then...they are playing against relegation candidate League One who certainly isn't in form. -1AH @1.77...very tempting.
Wouldn't touch the Over 2.50 @1.68 though. If Pool takes 0-2 lead, we can't be sure they score the third goal.
Will wait for some news who plays.
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Changed my mind too Over 2.50 @1.97. Wolves are scoring most of the time at home and Liverpool, eventhough they didn't concede in last 7 premier league matches, still looks vulnerable at times. Combined with fact that Liverpool looked tired last 15 minutes in Devils game, I think goals are coming in from Wolves side. And if Liverpool is a little more efficient they can also easily score 2 goals. 1-2 or 2-2 most likely outcomes.
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24 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:
...and offer no added value at the moment. I agree with you that odds would have to alter for there to be a value bet in this game.
In my opinion not much alteration is needed, but the odds movement suggests the odds will rise further, so that's why I wait.
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Dubbing about Liverpool. Yes Wolves are good (decent?) at home, but are they that good? We are talking about Liverpool! Recent Wolves matches aren't that great, so how is the form really? If they start against Liverpool the same way as they did against Southampton it is curtains. Yes they did win from City, but City played 80 minutes with 10 players. All in all; I think Wolves are massively overrated and I'm just waiting for the odds to be better.
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Latest info suggests Rashford won't play. And because he's such an important Manu player at the moment, this means disaster for the Devils. I pull the trigger on Liverpool -1 AH @1.80 then. At home in this form no English team will stop them and certainly not Manu without Rashford. 2-0 or 3-0 most likely outcome in my opinion.
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ManUtd +1.5 or BTTS....do we have solid information that Rashford plays?
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On 1/13/2020 at 10:55 AM, Mindfulness said:
Got to wait and see if Rashford is fit to play, apparently he got a knock in the Norwich game.
I hope odds on Devils (+AH) rise. At the moment they are a bit short imo.
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On 1/8/2020 at 8:04 PM, Charon84 said:
Odds on Tottenham - Liverpool for Under 3.00 are 1.90 at my bookie. I think it's a good bet
Well, the bet is in. 3+ goals was surely not out of the question this match. Good chances on both sides. But hey, who has ever seen a match were all chances were promoted to goals
I think 1-2 was a more fair result. Liverpool wasn't doing that much in last half hour (which almost got them in troubles). First half Liverpool was far better.
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Don't know the bet builder. Don't have acces to Bet365 either.
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15 hours ago, AussieDex said:
Agree! btw Bet365 pays 2.30 under 3.00 and 2.50 under 3.5
I think you're mistaken here. Under 3.50 pays better then Under 3.00?
At time of writing it's 2.30 for Under 2.50 and no bet for Under 3.00.
Super Bowl Finalists 2021/22
in NFL Predictions
Posted
Ah that makes sense. Knowing this there are no stand outs in points/rating.