Charon84
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Posts posted by Charon84
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Lol. My system is 4/4 so far. Not a big volume, but still. It's doing it's thing. Or am I jinxing the Ravens bet now? (+28 points lead, last 10 minutes).
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? lol. EAGLES WIN
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Lol. Panthers losing nerves. Defense Eagles doing great and special teams top play at right time. 21-18 now for Eagles. Come on!
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Oh man. Get a first down suckers. Just catch a ball and hold on.
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Eagles offense is horrible while defense is doing great job and holding Eagles somehow in the game....but man...this bet looks to be a goner.
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I got Eagles +3 @-104 by the way.
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22 hours ago, PercyP said:
Four games into the season and only one team is undefeated. Nothing is certain with American football. Seldom teams get a 4-0 start. So it's not other then other years.
This week four of my selections suffered defeat last week and I am expecting them to all bounce back.(1) Two weeks ago the Rams were Super Bowl favourites. Losing to the Cardinals would have hurt but they can return to winning ways against the Seahawks. LA Rams -2.0 @ 10/11 Careful with that one. Seahawks OC is former protege McVay and Seahawks O can match Cardinals O and exploit holes in Rams D the same way. Don't touch for me.
(2) The Vikings at home will score more this week against the Lions. Vikings -7.5 @ 20/21 Agree. How the hell is Goff with unknown WR winning from Cousins and Thielen/Jefferson? Blowout game Vikings.
(3) Without David Montgomery and the run the Bears will struggle. Raiders -5.5 @ 10/11 Fields will be starter. Rookie isn't going to get away with a victory against the Raiders. Raiders touchdown+
(4) The Titans will come good this week. Henry to star against the Jags. Titans -4.0 @ 10/11 Agree. Henry should be able to demolish Jags D on his own. WR Chark out for Jags.
(5) Last week, I stated the Giants are good against the run, but Dallas can throw it as well. Dallas -7 @ 20/21 Line set correct.
Standard bet 1 point Canadian plus 4 point roll up.
30 points staked. All prices Bet365.
I'm continuing with my "follow the money" system. I runned that system along with some other systems the first weeks, but this system is the only working system for now. I use sites to get a decent feel about the cash/ticket split. I.e. in week 3 Bengals (+3.0) had 30% of bets (tickets) against Steelers, but that generated 70% of cash just before kickoff. In week 4 WFT (-1.5) had 55% of bets (tickets) against Falcons, but that generated 86% of cash just before kickoff. With that info I'm going to analyze the game further. Why is the 'big money' on them? Do I agree? So far the system runs 4-0.
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Only bet WFT -1.5 @2.00. Explanation above.
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17 hours ago, PercyP said:
This week there are a number of further games which interest me.
Jags +7.5 we might see the true Lawrence tonight @ 10/11. Lawrence played good this match, but it wasn't enough apparently cuz Burrow also showed skill. Nice match too watch.
Browns -2 @ 20/23. I don't want to touch this one. Vikings is the first 'even' matchup, last two weeks 'easy' opponents. I'm not sure Browns will win SU. But I'm also not sure Vikings are steaming out of the gates. So a no bet. Too much variables.
Giants +7.5 @ 20/23. The giants strength is stopping the run. Even though Saints play inconsistent I simply can't trust Giants with that coach and wobbly QB.
Washington -1.5 @ 10/11, their defence will scare the Falcons. I'm eyeing this one too. Ryan isn't a mobile QB and he's going to get hurt bij WFT D.
and Colts +2 @ 10/11 need to win to prevent going 0 - 4. I don't bet on the team with Wentz. Nuf said
0.5 point Canadian plus 2 point roll up. 15 point staked.
All prices Bet365
I'm eyeing Lions +3, Panthers +4, Eagles +7, Seahawks +3, Raiders +3. Have too find out which 1-2 bets are the best.
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All logic bets. I'm still working on the best 1-2 bets for the weekend
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I only had the Bengals +3 but they won SU.
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On 9/16/2021 at 7:41 PM, PercyP said:
Charon84 I was all over Washington till I found this stat.
Daniel Jones has a career record of 8-19, He's 4-0 against Washington and 4-19 against everyone else. Every time these two teams play, Jones somehow turns into Tom Brady and the Giants somehow win.
I did know that stat, but I simply ignored it cuz in my opinion trend-stats are bullshit. Different teams at that time, different situation and standings and it's just history. Just like roulette. If the ball lands 5 times on 0, doesn't change the probability the 6th time.
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21 hours ago, Teodore said:
Any reasoning ?
Not yet
it's only the matches that qualify spread wise. But with the change of spread all matches qualify except Browns - Texans, Buccs - Falcons and Packers - Lions.
For tomorrow I have a strong lean towards WFT. I know it's Heinicke as QB and he isn't great, but he fits the system. Giants QB Jones will have big trouble with pass rush / D-line WFT. It will cause some interceptions, fumbles or inaccurate passing. WFT should win with touchdown or more.
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Going tot adjust my system to favs under or equal to 6.0. Otherwise there arent much Bets available in the coming weeks.
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Week 2 matches that can qualify in my system (favorites with spread 3.0 or less) at the moment:
Saints (-3.0) at Panthers
Bengals at Bears (-3.0)
Bills (-3.0) at Dolphins
Cowboys at Chargers (-3.0)
Chiefs (-3.0) at Ravens
Going to analyze coming days.
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On 9/11/2021 at 8:58 AM, Charon84 said:
After long debates with myself I've pulled the trigger on Raiders +4. Already had a lean that way. Now Edwards and Peters are also out I'm far more confident. Ravens having injury trouble on both sides of the ball, Raiders strong attack and improved defense (new DC who stopped Lamar once in 2019), home support in new stadium Raiders. Enough ingrediënts for a straight upset or cover.
No other bets this weekend. No home +3 dog qualifies in my opinion.
I've changed my approach. Instead of focusing on +3 dogs I focused on 3.0 or less favorites. History is telling us that small favs are winning significant more. So I've hedged Raiders. Yesterday I only had one bet (Broncos -2.5 at Giants, win) and my plan is to bet 1-2 matches a week maximum.
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After long debates with myself I've pulled the trigger on Raiders +4. Already had a lean that way. Now Edwards and Peters are also out I'm far more confident. Ravens having injury trouble on both sides of the ball, Raiders strong attack and improved defense (new DC who stopped Lamar once in 2019), home support in new stadium Raiders. Enough ingrediënts for a straight upset or cover.
No other bets this weekend. No home +3 dog qualifies in my opinion.
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I've discarded Browns, Colts and Texans as viable underdog bets. Too many questionmarks. WFT and NYG still remain as do the Steelers and Cardinals.
I'm still deciding how to play this season. I normally traded on Betfair trough the season to end with profit in NFL SuperBowl Winner market...but unfortunately they've banned players from my country recently. So I have to adapt. Biggest problem is time. I can't follow 32 teams for over 20 weeks. My options:
1. Pick 2-3 teams and only bet on matches were these teams are involved.
2. Set a standard which narrows down the options every week (i.e. only bet Home dogs with line above +3.0). On thuesday I know which matches qualify for the next weekend and I can focus on those matches only.
What choice would you make and why? Or do you have an alternative?
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The stupid part of these bets....we all know one of them will be one big disaster...but which one?
All bets should be winners, but most question marks are with Panthers IMO. 49ers is best bet I think.
I'm also eyeing Seahawks -2.5 @Colts.
Do you have any standout dogs that can win week 1? Steelers, Cardinals, Browns?
Premier League Predictions > Dec 28th - 30th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Cash-out/hedging is not particuly profitable in long run. But...200 -> almost 4k is huge...that said; I would wait till after City game. Can't imagine they'll let you down. United game is whole different with injuries and stuff.