Flat Racing 17th of September

[Aidymac]

Verluga - Wolverhampton 9:20 This is my only bet tomorrow , its the only one that sticks out to me as an eye-catcher and could possibly be overpriced. Now Timeform seem to think that the horse would be better suited by 1 mile + but i myself think that the step back to 7 furlongs tomorrow will suit better due to the way it ran last time out. Last time out it was out near the back, 3 furlongs out it was pushed along and 2 furlongs out it made headway but when going into the 8th furlong it weakened which suggests to me that it stays the 7 furlongs and should be making headway tomorrow in the final furlong. It runs off a mark of 60 tomorrow, 2 pound higher than its only win where it won a 6 furlong race at Carlisle back in July. Duran Fentiman takes the ride for the first time tomorrow and it is its first run on this surface tomorrow so if handling it i feel it should have a chance at a price. The Easterby stable is in fine form, i think he had a couple of winners today and a couple of places. It is also dropped from a Class 5 into a Class 6 so that a little plus also. Now over 7 furlongs at Wolverhamtpon there is a bit of a draw bias favouring the low drawn numbers so Verluga has a nice pitch in Stall 3 and should get a nice sit before making a challenge. It is still a lightly raced horse open to plenty of improvement. My conclusion is that this horse will be very overpriced tomorrow, the Betfair forecast is 26.0 , my own personal forecast was 7/1 so anything over that id be delighted with. I feel the step back in trip will suit and it can make a winning challenge entering the final furlong if getting a clear run.. I would rate Far View as my biggest threat. £10 e/w @ 15/2 (Hills) BOG

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September 4.30 Ayr (Bronze cup) I am not going to miss having a bit on Sunrise Safari from Richard Faheys yard in this 6f race. Running off 82 last time out, i thought the horse ran a fine race and goes off same mark here. Only neg is the jockey D Tudhope whom rode the PL horse many times last year and i didnt rate him much. Goldie doesnt seem to use him now much and he has picked up this ride. Drawn should not be a problem as last years race was dominated by those drawn 7 or lower. 48.0 on Betfair is a bit tasty! 2.5pts win

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September 16:30 Ayr - The Bronze Cup I think its really hard to judge where the draw advantage will be in this race but based on last years result, the low draws were favourable. The first 8 home last year were drawn 12 or lower from a total of 24 runners and with stalls 1,2 and 3 all finishing in the first four and the 5th and 4th drawn horses coming in 5th and 6th place so the first 5 drawn were in the first 6 positions. There are so many horses in with chances today and this really is a cracking contest but I am going to side with one of the low drawn horses Jeannie Galloway who will be breaking out of stall number 4. This horse has really thrived since joining the Fahey yard. Did show a bit of promise for her previous trainer in a couple of maiden races with a couple of placed efforts but won over this course and distance in August 2009 on her debut for this yard in a 19 runner maiden. Followed that up with a success in her handicap debut off a mark of 73 at York before being put away for the winter. Made her reappearance at Doncaster over 7 furlongs, this was her first try at the trip and it seemed she needed the run that day as she weakened away around 2 furlongs out. A win at Musselburgh in her next race off a mark of 78 proved that she stayed 7 furlongs. Was then turned out back over 6 furlongs at this course in her next race where she finished a creditable 2nd off a mark of 82. Responded well to pressure by keeping on inside the final furlong but the race was already tied up by then. A rare and disappointing run in Ireland was next before coming back to the UK and winning at Musselburgh once again over 7 furlongs LTO off a mark of 83. Only had 10 runs to date and I believe she is still on the upgrade so can easily defy this mark of 88, whether it be in this big race today or another day. Raised 5lbs for her win at Musselburgh but Lee Topliss takes off 5lbs once which will help ease the weights a bit although she will still technically be 5lb higher than her Musselburgh win since he was on board that day. There are many others in with strong chances today so I'm not going to go through them all but I will be having a small saver on Eton Rifles who is also lightly raced and I believe he is better than the form he has shown so far this season. The horse had a great 2009 by winning twice and placing four times from six races and went up 15lbs in the handicap due to this. Is back down to a mark of 87 which is 5lbs lower than his reappearance this season at Ripon which came over todays trip and was arguably his best run of the season, finished 4/13 off a mark of 92. A return to that sort of form today may seem him sneak into the places or possibly a nice return to the winners enclosure as he will be a lot fitter for this. 0.5pts E/W Jeannie Galloway @ 16/1 (>Bet365 - BOG - 5 places 1/4 odds) 0.2pts E/W Eton Rifles @ 40/1 (>Bet365 - BOG - 5 places 1/4 odds)

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September (Ayr Bronze Cup) 4:30 Ayr - Cheveton - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365) Once again I'm selecting this fellow who I've been following for a while now, he's very well treated on his best form and has shaped as if coming back to something relative to his best form on some recent runs. He's 6 years old now but with conditions to suit here and a good draw I'm expecting a good run. He is stepped up to 6f now, a trip that he has never one over before as it stretches his stamina but his best form is on Good or softer ground. He has been raced 6 times over 6f, 3 times on Good to Firm ground which counts him out already, 1 time on the AW when he was a maiden (Came 4th) and twice on Good ground, once coming 12th of 19 off a mark of 95 which he has never won from on turf. The other run was a highly impressive 2nd place out of 20 runners at York a year ago in the big 6f sprint race in October when being beaten by Kaldoun Kingdom, who runs in the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday. That run was off a mark 10lbs higher than today and with Dale Swift taking off a further 5lbs I certainly believe the trip isn't as big a worry as his record would suggest. The bit of cut that's in the ground at Ayr right now is also even more of a positive and all his Good or GS form should put him right in the mix here. Cheveton was an unlucky loser last time out at Sandown when finishing behind the highly progressive 3 year old Joe Packet over 5 furlongs. My selection was 3 lengths behind that day but he struggled to get racing room and really took off in the final furlong when the gap opened up on the rail, if that had of come earlier he might just of done better and possibly won. There was no cut in the ground that day and he really seemed to be back to his best that day, the extra furlong here will suit him based on how he was closing before the line and with a likely strong gallop from the higher drawn numbers he certainly should get an ideally run race as he seems to thrive on the back of a good gallop. Cheveton started off this season running off a mark of 97 and has since dropped a total of 12lbs, I find it hard to believe that this horse will go through a season without winning a race and with that 12lb difference and Swift's 5lb claim he'll certainly be there or thereabouts come the final furlong if all goes to plan. He has the speed to match any of these runners but just needs everything to go right for him, which I think it may do here today. He also ran well at this course on his only visit, which was back in July when he was a 1 1/2 length 3rd behind Favourite Girl, that was over 5f and he stayed on well inside the final furlong which helps my theory that he'll stay the 6f here. Ayr is typically fair to most type of horses and I think the track is ideal for his style and I want something that'll be coming off the pace here and he fits the bill perfectly. The draw bias is a hard one to call but in the 5f sprint on day 1 the first 3 home (of 19) were 18,19 & 16. Suggesting that that it may just be the place to be and with Cheveton drawn in stall 25 of 26 he might just have an ideal position and could get settled in behind on the rail if that's they choose to hold him up, which in my opinion is the key to getting the best out of him and ensuring he stays the trip. He'll need a bit of luck in running but he's surely due some having been tight for racing room in many's a race in 2010. With a clear run he should be a big threat here and I think he's on a very dangerous mark given his previous abilities and as they say, form is temporary, class is permanent, this fellow certainly has enough class to be a big threat and with the first 5 places being paid I think he looks great each way value at 16/1. He's a 10/1 shot in my book and has big big place claims at a minimum and should go very well. Dale Swift's 5lb claim means he'll only be carrying 9st 1lb which is surely a big help and I think his trainer has lined Cheveton up for this one, Price is coming to a track he has only visited with 8 horses previously and this is his only horse sent out tomorrow. The stable have been in good fettle over the last while and Swift has never ridden for him before so it's interesting to see him get the leg up, he has a good 17% strike rate around Ayr, although it's only from 17 rides but still good none the less and he comes here for 2 rides today. He's a jockey I rate highly and I think he's an ideal jockey for this horse and if he finds the gaps I think he could be on the quickest of the lot, especially if the ground has a small bit of cut in it. All in all, 16/1 is generous and he's worth small/medium each way stakes in a tough race but one I think could suit him.

[punterpete]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September 2.35 Newbury Awzaan win @ 9/2 Bet365 In great form as a two year old winning the Mill reef stakes at todays course and the Middle Park at Newmarket. Has not had the same success a 3 year old and was very dissapointing in the 2000 Guineas but looked better last time out finishing 3rd in a listed race at Haydock. Drops back to 7F today which will hopefully conincide with a return to winning ways. 2.45 Ayr Robert The Painter Win @ SP Won on his debut in a Maiden at Redcar at a big price 16/1. The fom of that race is working out with the 3rd and 4th that day wining since. Stable mate Alben Star looks the main danger and is the choice of Paul Hanagan but I think RTP and young Topliss may be spring a suprise here. 3.55 Ayr Julius Geezer ew @ 8/1 Stan James Won at Chester back in May and finished 3rd last time out in a listed event at York. Will improve for that last run and he takes to the ground today will surely be in the shake up.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September Im going to stick a few quid on Ginger Ted e/w for the Bronze Cup who won its last race nicely and is drawn in Stall 11 which i think is fine as he can choose which way to go or can go up the centre, he has the freedom of finding where it wants to go which can be an advantage. Has a good e/w shout at 33/1 in my opinion. Courageous was staying on very well in its last race so i will have a win bet on it at 6/1. But the one i feel is overpriced is Amenable and Adrian Nicholls has chosen this one ahead of the favourite Courageous, this is a pure out and out battler of a horse and will be tough to pass and looks good for a place at 16/1 another e/w. I will also do the Reverse-forecasts and Combination Tricast

[Spooner]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September Newmarket 16:10 - Khor Sheed @ 4/1 Bet365 (bog) WIN I think this one will be useful from Cumani's yard, he ran really well here two run ago when scoring on 2nd outing, up into Group 3 level lto when finshing 3rd, think the drop back down to 6f will suit better and must have an oustanding chance of winning. Newbury 15:45 - Sergeant Alblett @ 4/1 Boylesports (bog) WIN Impressive on debut at Newmarket when scoring by over 2 lengths, the runner up was well fancied and well regarded but Johnston's horse done it really well. I think their could be plenty more left in this horse and he could take this before going onto better things.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September Tidal Star in the Newmarket 4:45... My mate is just after geting home from London and he is friendly with the owner of this horse. The owner told him the horse is doing very well on the gallops at home but they dont know how he will take to the racetrack. Its his first run today but they are trying and their money is going on the horse and i was told to do it e/w that it has a very good chance

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September

16:30 Ayr - The Bronze Cup I think its really hard to judge where the draw advantage will be in this race but based on last years result, the low draws were favourable. The first 8 home last year were drawn 12 or lower from a total of 24 runners and with stalls 1,2 and 3 all finishing in the first four and the 5th and 4th drawn horses coming in 5th and 6th place so the first 5 drawn were in the first 6 positions. There are so many horses in with chances today and this really is a cracking contest but I am going to side with one of the low drawn horses Jeannie Galloway who will be breaking out of stall number 4. This horse has really thrived since joining the Fahey yard. Did show a bit of promise for her previous trainer in a couple of maiden races with a couple of placed efforts but won over this course and distance in August 2009 on her debut for this yard in a 19 runner maiden. Followed that up with a success in her handicap debut off a mark of 73 at York before being put away for the winter. Made her reappearance at Doncaster over 7 furlongs, this was her first try at the trip and it seemed she needed the run that day as she weakened away around 2 furlongs out. A win at Musselburgh in her next race off a mark of 78 proved that she stayed 7 furlongs. Was then turned out back over 6 furlongs at this course in her next race where she finished a creditable 2nd off a mark of 82. Responded well to pressure by keeping on inside the final furlong but the race was already tied up by then. A rare and disappointing run in Ireland was next before coming back to the UK and winning at Musselburgh once again over 7 furlongs LTO off a mark of 83. Only had 10 runs to date and I believe she is still on the upgrade so can easily defy this mark of 88, whether it be in this big race today or another day. Raised 5lbs for her win at Musselburgh but Lee Topliss takes off 5lbs once which will help ease the weights a bit although she will still technically be 5lb higher than her Musselburgh win since he was on board that day. There are many others in with strong chances today so I'm not going to go through them all but I will be having a small saver on Eton Rifles who is also lightly raced and I believe he is better than the form he has shown so far this season. The horse had a great 2009 by winning twice and placing four times from six races and went up 15lbs in the handicap due to this. Is back down to a mark of 87 which is 5lbs lower than his reappearance this season at Ripon which came over todays trip and was arguably his best run of the season, finished 4/13 off a mark of 92. A return to that sort of form today may seem him sneak into the places or possibly a nice return to the winners enclosure as he will be a lot fitter for this. 0.5pts E/W Jeannie Galloway @ 16/1 (>Bet365 - BOG - 5 places 1/4 odds) 0.2pts E/W Eton Rifles @ 40/1 (>Bet365 - BOG - 5 places 1/4 odds)

** Having another 0.25pts E/W on Jeannie Galloway @ 33/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September Alright if you like 2yr Old racing today lol!!

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September 4.55 Newbury Truly Asia must hold solid claims on last time outs run even though he runs 1lb out of the handicap. He has dropped a long way in the weights since last year after showing very little this year, he was winner off 74 rated 71 today and last time out was a massive improvement on form this year and if taking another step forward today he should be about again. 0.5pt e/w truly asia 10/1 hills 3.20 Ayr Competitive sprint handicap and the sprint king Nicholls has 3 in the field. Really fancy the chances of his sons ride who looks the pick on jockey bookings anyhow and that is Silaah clearly came on for the run last time out when running away with a decent looking claimer which has taken several strong boosts since with 2nd Espiritde Midas winning very easily earlier in the week and also 4th has won since. Silaah ran well in some big handicaps last season and managed a win off a 3lb lower mark and then ran a consistent level afterwards off higher marks. 0.5pt e/w silaah 12/1 hills 4.30 Ayr I am massively surprised to Beat The Bell such a big price after coming very close to landing a big gamble on his first start for Barron. He missed the start completely but rattled home to just finish outside the places and runs off the same mark today and does have some form on ground with some cut and step back upto 6f looks a good move considering how he finished last time out. The other that I am gonna take in this race is last years winner Baldemar who was ridden by todays jockey then off a 2lb lower mark goes well on softer conditions and has been given a break since his best run since that win last year and has probably been lined up for a another bid here and goes well fresh. 0.5pt e/w Baldemar 16/1 sj 0.25pt e/w beat the bell 22/1 vc

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September HIGHEST 2.25 Newmarket. Place Lay. John Gosden in brilliant form, so appears a little silly to oppose one of his, but in all honesty the odds are totally wrong for this horse, irespective of whether he wins or not. Will apparently come on bundles for today's run, and so with being up against plenty of unexpoed types and a solid looking favourite, I'd like to lay the place odds here.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September 3.00NM Illandrane 6/1 e/w Skybet Heard some good things about this horse, well bred and Fallon booked. Could go well here. 3.10NEWB Camponologist 6/1 e/w Sporting bet Might be vunerable at the weights, however on a hatrick, Yard going well too, fav should win but looks too short for me. 3.50AYR Julius Geezer 15/2 ew Sporting Bet Impressed with its 3rd at York lto, progressing nicely, could be more to come, should make the shake up. 4.30AYR Bronze Cup - Empirico 11/1 e/w Sporting Bet (paying 5 places) Come's across the water from Ireland, think it could be a big player here, improving and has experience of racing in big fields, which is important imo in a 27runner h'cap.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September FINJAAN 2.35 Newmarket. 0.5 points each way. Needs to be at best, but I think that best will be shown today. Can get a nice pace to run at own pace and with the trip and ground not a concern and being a very respectable price at around 20s on the exchanges, I'd be a player.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September QUESTION TIMES 4.20 Newbury. 1 point lay. Not sure what she's done to deserve to be around the 5/4 mark. Looks sure to improve and has every chance, but I give every chance to several lining up. The trip and ground shouldn't be a concern, but I just feel the value lies with the field against her.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September BEARTRICE AURORE 3.00 Newmarket. 0.5 pts each way. Needs to improve well from debut, but I think she will and then go close. The trip and ground should suit and in an open race, I give her every chance. The price makes the bet for me.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September

BEARTRICE AURORE 3.00 Newmarket. 0.5 pts each way. Needs to improve well from debut' date= but I think she will and then go close. The trip and ground should suit and in an open race, I give her every chance. The price makes the bet for me.

Fantastic mate :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September 4:30 Ayr: Beat The Bell 1pt e/w 33/1 Bet365 (12345) Beat the Bell looks over priced on his second run for David Barron. Missed the break over five last time out and ran on. Extra furlong should help here. Lots of dangers, but worth a chance.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September Ayr 4:30 Valery Borzov 1pt EW - 25/1 (VC) Going for a big price in the Bronze Cup. Neil Farley saddles this horse and takes off a valuable 7lbs which effectively lets the horse run off 81, which he should be massively competitive off. It'll be his lowest mark for some time. His last win was in May 2009 off a mark of 97 when he was with the Nicholls stable. Fahey hasn't managed to bring out the best in him but he has been running off some huge weights given his actual ability. Goes on any ground and off 81 could be a massive player. Ran in the Gold Cup here last year and although down the field, wasn't disgraced 11 lengths behind the winner. Also ran in the Gold Cup the year before that and finished even closer. I'm going with the experience to play a part here and he's been kept busy and should be ready for this.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September

(Ayr Bronze Cup) 4:30 Ayr - Cheveton - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365) Once again I'm selecting this fellow who I've been following for a while now, he's very well treated on his best form and has shaped as if coming back to something relative to his best form on some recent runs. He's 6 years old now but with conditions to suit here and a good draw I'm expecting a good run. He is stepped up to 6f now, a trip that he has never one over before as it stretches his stamina but his best form is on Good or softer ground. He has been raced 6 times over 6f, 3 times on Good to Firm ground which counts him out already, 1 time on the AW when he was a maiden (Came 4th) and twice on Good ground, once coming 12th of 19 off a mark of 95 which he has never won from on turf. The other run was a highly impressive 2nd place out of 20 runners at York a year ago in the big 6f sprint race in October when being beaten by Kaldoun Kingdom, who runs in the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday. That run was off a mark 10lbs higher than today and with Dale Swift taking off a further 5lbs I certainly believe the trip isn't as big a worry as his record would suggest. The bit of cut that's in the ground at Ayr right now is also even more of a positive and all his Good or GS form should put him right in the mix here. Cheveton was an unlucky loser last time out at Sandown when finishing behind the highly progressive 3 year old Joe Packet over 5 furlongs. My selection was 3 lengths behind that day but he struggled to get racing room and really took off in the final furlong when the gap opened up on the rail, if that had of come earlier he might just of done better and possibly won. There was no cut in the ground that day and he really seemed to be back to his best that day, the extra furlong here will suit him based on how he was closing before the line and with a likely strong gallop from the higher drawn numbers he certainly should get an ideally run race as he seems to thrive on the back of a good gallop. Cheveton started off this season running off a mark of 97 and has since dropped a total of 12lbs, I find it hard to believe that this horse will go through a season without winning a race and with that 12lb difference and Swift's 5lb claim he'll certainly be there or thereabouts come the final furlong if all goes to plan. He has the speed to match any of these runners but just needs everything to go right for him, which I think it may do here today. He also ran well at this course on his only visit, which was back in July when he was a 1 1/2 length 3rd behind Favourite Girl, that was over 5f and he stayed on well inside the final furlong which helps my theory that he'll stay the 6f here. Ayr is typically fair to most type of horses and I think the track is ideal for his style and I want something that'll be coming off the pace here and he fits the bill perfectly. The draw bias is a hard one to call but in the 5f sprint on day 1 the first 3 home (of 19) were 18,19 & 16. Suggesting that that it may just be the place to be and with Cheveton drawn in stall 25 of 26 he might just have an ideal position and could get settled in behind on the rail if that's they choose to hold him up, which in my opinion is the key to getting the best out of him and ensuring he stays the trip. He'll need a bit of luck in running but he's surely due some having been tight for racing room in many's a race in 2010. With a clear run he should be a big threat here and I think he's on a very dangerous mark given his previous abilities and as they say, form is temporary, class is permanent, this fellow certainly has enough class to be a big threat and with the first 5 places being paid I think he looks great each way value at 16/1. He's a 10/1 shot in my book and has big big place claims at a minimum and should go very well. Dale Swift's 5lb claim means he'll only be carrying 9st 1lb which is surely a big help and I think his trainer has lined Cheveton up for this one, Price is coming to a track he has only visited with 8 horses previously and this is his only horse sent out tomorrow. The stable have been in good fettle over the last while and Swift has never ridden for him before so it's interesting to see him get the leg up, he has a good 17% strike rate around Ayr, although it's only from 17 rides but still good none the less and he comes here for 2 rides today. He's a jockey I rate highly and I think he's an ideal jockey for this horse and if he finds the gaps I think he could be on the quickest of the lot, especially if the ground has a small bit of cut in it. All in all, 16/1 is generous and he's worth small/medium each way stakes in a tough race but one I think could suit him.

Well done mate, cracking result :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September :clapGreat stuff Monte :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September Thank you lads. What a horse! :notworthy

[markmywords]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September Cracking Call Monterosso.:nana

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September

Tidal Star in the Newmarket 4:45... My mate is just after geting home from London and he is friendly with the owner of this horse. The owner told him the horse is doing very well on the gallops at home but they dont know how he will take to the racetrack. Its his first run today but they are trying and their money is going on the horse and i was told to do it e/w that it has a very good chance

Backed from 12/1 into 7/2 favourite and was useless!! :$

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September Well done Monte!! A couple for tonight: 7.50 Wolverhampton True to form is a short priced favourite so there is plenty of EW value about and I quite like the chances of Daniel Thomas. He ran away with a seller over CD in January that form is nothing solid but it was to a modest level and has since ran to a similar level before showing a marked improvement in a claimer last time out at Kempton on unfavourable terms when missing the break and came rattling home late and steps back up in trip tonight and isnt badly handicapped on the pick of his form and starts out for a new yard tonight. 0.5pt e/w daniel thomas 25/1 sj 8.50 Wolverhampton Cheers for Thea has improved rapidly this summer landing 3 turf handicaps, she ran her best race to date last time out when 4th in a big field handicap of tonights mark, she is lightly raced over 7f and potentially still improving. She also has a strong profile around here 3 from 4. 0.5pt e/w cheers for thea 6/1 vc

[Spooner]

Re: Flat Racing 17th of September PLACE LAYS @ Wolverhampton (Betfair SP) 20:20 - Sula Two PLACE LAY Won two of her last three races so dangerous to take on for a place but only two places up for grabs here and she's having to deal with a climb in the handicap, she's now running off 70 which is 10lb higher than when she won at Newbury. Two other lto winners in the field and horses who could be well handicapped on debut. 20:50 - Conry PLACE LAY Has looked well held in last starts with two efforts coming this year after a lay-off, only positive you could say would be that he could of needed the run lto but has never won or placed on the polytrack either so I think he'll be held again.