Best Bet of The Day 16th of September

[Aidymac]

Bravely - Ayr 2:50 I like the chances of this horse tomorrow. It is well drawn, has hit form, trainer is in form and should have a decent chance of making it 2 wins from its last 2 runs here. It has a great draw again tomorrow in Stall 16. Coincidentaly it won its last race from Stall 16 last time out at Newcastle. From this stall it should be able to grab the favoured stand-side rail and thats usually the place to be. It is dropped in trip tomorrow to 5 furlongs from 6 but i think that is no problem at all and could be actually an advantage as in its last run over 6 furlongs it picked up really well on the 4th furlong so if it picks up very well again 1 furlong out over 5 tomorrow it will be a tough nut to crack. Even though it is up 6 pounds for its latest success, i feel myself it is still on a very leniant mark. It runs iff a mark of 61 tomorrow but won off a mark of 72 last year so is still 11 pounds better off from that win which is substantial. The ground tomorrow is a forecast Good (good to soft in places) and this should be no problem as it has won on good to soft, good and good to firm ground!! When David Allan ride the horse it has a record of 1 Win - 2 Places - 4 Unplaced so he does fairly well on the horse and is the stable's top jockey. The trainer has been in cracking form this season also which is a plus. My summarisation is that Bravely will try to get the stands-side rail where the advantage is and 1 furlong out it should make a winning challenge off what is still a leniant mark. Has conditions to suit and is in form and there is a forecast 19 runners tomorrow which means there should be 4 places on offer so i feel is an e/w bet to nothing. Personally i would rate Argentine as the biggest danger to my selection 1 Point win @ 6/1 (Hills) BOG

[BKI Punter]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September 4:20 Ayr Caldercruix 3.5pt win - 9/1 (Bet365 - bog) Really like the look of this one at a decent price. Is the only confirmed front runner in the field so could gain a rather soft lead and have things his own way. Is a lightly raced 3yo with 8 starts to his name. Has won two of those, which were his first attempts in handicap company. Won off an initial mark of 71, and then 79. Followed that up with a good second behind the smart Monterosso. Finished down the field in two competitive big field handicaps but that doesn't put me off at all. His draws in those races weren't great and in those big fields a good draw is usually crucial. His small field (8 or less) form reads 112 and Spencer has been in the saddle for all three of those. He has been lowered to a handicap mark of 90 after the last two efforts and he should fare well off that. He did pull 2 lengths clear of the rest of the field when behind Monterosso. Spencer has an 18% strike-rate for this trainer this year, with 6 wins from 34 which isn't too bad. The stable aren't exactly firing but they are running consistently enough. In this field I don't think the horse should be bigger than 5/1 so it'll be interesting to see if there's any support tomorrow.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September Sorry, that should be 1pt win. :ok

[Monterosso]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September Haven't had a winner in ages. :sad 4:00 Pontefract - Pepper Lane - 1pt WIN @ 14/1 (Bet365 - BOG) Consistent 3 year old filly who is rarely out of the frame having had 14 career runs and finished in the top four on 10 occasions. She looks very progressive and despite being having a fairly hectic campaign, she started off this season at Redcar off a mark of 56 and won that race landing a bit of a touch. She was then moved to the O'Meara stable and has since been the picture of consistency placing on 4 of her 5 runs for this yard and coming 4th on the other occasion. She now races off a mark of 70 but I certainly feel there's more to come from this Exceed and Excel filly and she gets in here carrying a featherweight of 8st 4lbs and has the wonderful Silvester De Sousa on board. De Sousa has an excellent 28% strike rate when riding for O'Meara and he was on Pepper Lane for the first time last time out. She never really traveled that day and got going too late on as she tends to do sometimes but despite being upped in class now I think she'll have a good chance with very little weight on a testing track where stamina usually plays its part and she usually finishes her races quite well. The ground is going to be quite fast at Pontefract today and that'll play to her strengths, she usually gives her best running on rapidly fast ground and with no rain predicted she could well have conditions to suit. Esuvia may well be the one to plug them along up front and these two opposed each other before with Pepper Lane being beaten by a neck and she's 1lb better off here. My selection had to switch left to challenge that day and the line came too soon for her when she was making good strides to get up and if there's a similarly race run here today I think she'd get past her this time around. Ardent is the current favourite and was impressive last time out when making all to score by 4l but this is a notable step up in class and if those two go at each other from the start (drawn together) I think that Pepper Lane will get the race run to what she needs and her stamina may prove vital in the final furlongs of this 6f contest. There are plenty of other dangers hence this being a small stakes selection but with all things considered the 14/1 available is too big and she's 9/1 in my book. She has each way claims at a minimum but I really think she has the ability and room for improvement to win this race if everything pans out as expected, small stakes but one I expect to go well.

[andyjkmak]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September 4.50 Ayr Commando Scott is down in grade and this course and distance winner should run very well. As long as he is up with the pace I think he has an outstanding chance of winning here.Only a few pounds more than his last win and with the stable firing in winners he is great value at around 6/1. 1 Pt win 6/1 Bet365

[punterpete]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September 3.50 Ayr Celtic Change ew @9/1 >Bet365 Genuine front running type who won at Beverley on good to firm back in May and has been placed three times since. Went up 6lbs fo the Beverley win but runs off the same mark of 85 today as the last 3 placed runs. Is likely to try and make all but the only concern is fitness as he has been off the course for 51 days other wise would have been a win bet rather than each way.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September 3:20 Ayr - Goldenveil - Back This looks competitive for such a small field but I think Goldenveil has a really nice chance here. Built on debut 3rd when absolutely hacking up lto. Admittedly that wasn't a great race but he couldn't have been more impressive. I think he could well build on that to win again here 1pt win @ 11/8 William Hill BOG

[chris34]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September 5.10 Yarmouth Bravo Bravo has made a mockery of his handicap mark since switched to this trip and helooks all about stamina, he won both handicap starts very easil on soft turf first time and polytrack last time. Handicapper giving him a real chance only raisng him 5lb for his latest 2length win and certainly open to plenty of improvement in ideal conditions. Stable also in good form. 1pt win bravo bravo 5/1 sj

[markmywords]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September 14:30 Dickie Le Davoir - Is one that is held up and finishes like a train LTO ran 7F jockey realised it wasn't happening and therefore never gave a thorough finish. Time before mud throwing everywhere and did't have chance to dig in. Is a double CD winner here winning a class 3 with Spencer on top his ideal horse today a class 5. 0.5EW 7/1 ladbrokes

[Boulder5111]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September Y5.10 Any Given Moment 0.5pt E/W 14/1 William Hill BOG Martin Lane who is riding out of his skin lately takes the ride today having sat on the horse for the first time LTO when winning with this comment "always prominent, led on bit 4f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on strongly". That was also the horses first run in blinkers which it wears again today. That run was also only the 2nd time in the horses 10 race career that it has encoutered give in the ground (it's only other win was the other race on softish ground). Conditions today therefore like ideal and 14/1 looks a very fair price.

[wafer]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September Ayr 2:50 Mango Music -Ran well LTO at Newcastle in a class 4 race finishing 2nd being beaten by over two lengths.Drops down in class today and runs off the same mark as that last run but has won off a higher mark.Only its second run for new yard which is in great form this season. 1 pt Win bet @ 5/1 Coral

[fintron]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September 4.00 ponte Esuvia 7/1 on sport life tissue won well at redcar lto open to improvement well drawn yet 14/1 with pp. 14/1 paddypower, 1 pt win.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September 15:50 Ayr I like the Dandy Nicholls trained Keys Of Cyprus in this race. The eight year old looks to be his first string in the race with Adrian Nicholls taking the ride over recent addition to the stable Snow Bay who isn't without chances as well. Keys Of Cyprus has only won at this trip once from 12 attempts but its fair to say he hasn't had his ideal conditions often when running over the trip which is with a bit of cut in the ground. His win over this distance came at Ripon in soft conditions last year off a mark of 76 in a class 4 handicap. Won by half a length but it was a relatively confortable win for him despite the margin suggesting otherwise. All his best runs have been in ground softer than good although he has won on Good and Good To Firm ground as well but his win on GF did come 5 years ago on his racecourse debut. The going is Good To Soft today which will be fine for him but any more rain will be welcomed as the more juice in the ground the better having previously won on Soft and Heavy going. Has a decent enough course record too with the form reading 1-4-1. Won a handicap in 2008 off a mark of 69 and a handicap last season off a mark of 74. Both of these were over 7 furlongs and his 4th placed effort was over todays mile trip, that was on good ground and off a mark of 77 so I would rate his chances better today in ground thats more likely to suit. His 2nd place at Musselburgh back in July off a mark of 83 suggests this mark isn't beyond him and he also stayed on well in his last two runs off a mark of 82 which he runs off of today. The two Fahey horses at the head of the market should be feared and although my selection has form to reverse with Faithful Ruler from the race at Ripon on his penultimate start, I am willing to take the risk despite him giving away an extra 2lbs as I feel the horse will miss the services of Paul Hanagan. Lee Topliss is a very capable jockey and is well worth his 5lb claim and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Fahey's second string on paper win the race as he has every right to be winning the race as Arabian Spirit but more often than not, the jockey gets it right and Hanagan will have had the pick of the rides. 1pt win Keys Of Cyprus @ 7/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[cc75]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September 2.10 Yarmouth: Uncle Dermot 1pt win @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG Has the strongest form in the book here, albeit not insurmountable, and stepped back to 6f looks a good move with best efforts shown to date being over shorter distances. Ground an unknown but is for all runners so worth taking a chance on this IMO with Fallon looking a positive jock booking.

[Tull]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September

4:20 Ayr Caldercruix 3.5pt win - 9/1 (Bet365 - bog) Really like the look of this one at a decent price. Is the only confirmed front runner in the field so could gain a rather soft lead and have things his own way. Is a lightly raced 3yo with 8 starts to his name. Has won two of those, which were his first attempts in handicap company. Won off an initial mark of 71, and then 79. Followed that up with a good second behind the smart Monterosso. Finished down the field in two competitive big field handicaps but that doesn't put me off at all. His draws in those races weren't great and in those big fields a good draw is usually crucial. His small field (8 or less) form reads 112 and Spencer has been in the saddle for all three of those. He has been lowered to a handicap mark of 90 after the last two efforts and he should fare well off that. He did pull 2 lengths clear of the rest of the field when behind Monterosso. Spencer has an 18% strike-rate for this trainer this year, with 6 wins from 34 which isn't too bad. The stable aren't exactly firing but they are running consistently enough. In this field I don't think the horse should be bigger than 5/1 so it'll be interesting to see if there's any support tomorrow.

Reallly really like this one as well but I'm not convinced that he has enough speed or has a preference for 10f. I've opted for Plaisterer could opt to front run again and the form of its last race has worked out well. All of the runners are up in class but this one has placed. Jutland and Pendragon have decent sire records so worth watching. Plaisterer 2pts win for me

[Falbrav]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September RED PRESENCE 3.20 Ayr. 1 point win. Small field and I think that'll suit us best. The trip and ground's not a worry and so has every chance of turning over the 2 favourites.

[Aidymac]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September

Ayr 2:50 Mango Music -Ran well LTO at Newcastle in a class 4 race finishing 2nd being beaten by over two lengths.Drops down in class today and runs off the same mark as that last run but has won off a higher mark.Only its second run for new yard which is in great form this season. 1 pt Win bet @ 5/1 Coral

Well done mate!!! Between us we had the tricast which paid £338 :$

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Best Bet of The Day 16th of September ROCK MEDLEY 3.25 Listowel. 1 point win. Needs to be at best, but I think he will and does get in off a mark that gives him chances. Trip and ground fine, so should see a big effort.