Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept

[RussP]

3.30 Brighton 10 runners for a 1m4f, Class 6 handicap. Zelos Diktator will be the very warm fav here but looks an artifically short price on the back on some decent runs, but without winning. That leads me to a very nice EW bet and around the 8/1 mark (take the EP in the morning), Mayfairs Future is the one. Looks poised for a win in handicap company now dropped to just 51 for the first time. I'm also very taken by the positive jockey booking and feel everything's in place for a big run. Started this season back on a mark of 52, one which he's raced off all 5 runs this season, as a 'reward' for his consistency. A very good 4th on his first run back before having no chance from the 1 box at Kempton on the AW nto. Was then 3rd here where looking in need of the extra distance it gets today. Stepped up in trip to 11f for its next run, finding only a Sir Mark hotpot too good, before finding the 3f up in trip too much lto when fading tamely into 10th. Quite a consistent type for the grade with it's only failures being when things contrived against him so the EW looks well worth taking here. Mayfairs Future (c.8/1)

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept Guto - Brighton 2:00 Looking through the form this horse looks a stand-out bet for me tomorrow. It has everything going for it in my opinion. Has the draw, the speed, is fresh from a run, is back to form, is running off a very low mark and is in a Class 6 race. Over this 5 furlong race tomorrow at Brighton, the high numbers tend to do the best so i just concentrated mainly on Stalls 6-10. Guto is in Stall 6 which should be fine. This horse has a lot of speed. It went out in front last time and was just collared very close home, it traded at a low of 1.10 in running on Betfair. It has run only 14 days ago and had been largely out of form up to that point so signs are good that it has come back to near its best. It runs off a very low mark tomorrow. It is only up 1 pound from its last run, and runs off a mark of 58 tomorrow. It has won off a mark of 88 in the past so is 30 pounds better off tomorrow. It has once been rated a 99 animal so to say its well weighted tomorrow would be quite obvious. Guto runs in Class 6 company tomorrow so is down in grade from its last run which is another plus and previously in its career has come 2nd in a Listed event. My conclusion is it should take off in front tomorrow and might not be for catching. It is drawn fine and really should be in the top 3 so even though its a short enough price i am going to back it e/w if i get 5/2 or better. I will update the price in the morning when it comes in

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept 15:20 Musselburgh Cat O Nine Tails can bounce back from a poor run last time out to land this class 5 handicap. Mark Johnstons three year old has only had 8 runs to date and has only attempted this trip twice so she is still unexposed. Took her a while to get off the mark when she finally won a handicap off a mark of 63 at Thirsk over 12 furlongs. She then followed that up with another win which came over this course and distance, this was off a mark of 67. Faced a 5lb rise in the weights for that and headed to Haydock, again over 14 furlongs. Disappointed that day and drops down 1lb in the handicap for todays run. Not sure what went amiss LTO but she did take a keen hold that day and was then outpaced around 3 furlongs out. Should have a better chance today, back at a track shes won at previously and I think the smaller field will help her chances. Back into an all aged handicap today so receives an outstanding 11lb age allowance. 1pt win Cat O Nine Tails @ 4/1 (WillHill - BOG) Got my eye on two more but will probably wait until the prices are up in the morning.

[kev2oo9]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept 4.20 Musselburgh - Orchid Street 1pt win at S.P Tackled 5f on all but one career start when lto upped to 6f when just going down by a head but returns back to minimum trip tomorrow Won on 4th attempt in a maiden at Catterick on gd/frm in a class 5 Then entered into a nursery when no match for front two coming 3/6 btn 3 1/4 lengths off 76 Seemed to go back a step when btn 6 1/4 lengths off 77 when outpaced Last time as mentioned above went to 6f and was making up more and more ground as race worse but ultimately went down by a nk which was off a mark of 78 , Races off 72 tomorrow and handles distance & going , nurserys are always competitive so hoping mines doesn't get outpaced and left behind lol

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept 4:20 Musselburgh - Boundaries - 2pts @ 6/1 (PaddyPower) Consistent 2 year old who finally got off the mark at the 10th attempt last time out over C&D, made all that day and went away from the other 3 competitors in decent fashion. He's very consistent and has only been out of the top 4 once in his 10 race career. He has been campaigned at various trips from 5f as far as 7f but has only ran over a minimum 5 furlongs on 3 occasions with form reading 2-2-1, which is obviously impressive. Two of those runs came with cut in the ground which he seemed to love, including a 1 length defeat to Dingle View in a stronger field than this. That horse has since went on to win a Group 3 at The Curragh in good fashion beating some fine horses. Boundaries was hampered at the start of that race and ended up being held up, had to switch right to get a run with 2f to go to get some racing room and ran on extremely well and could of gone a lot closer with a bit more luck. The form of that race doesn't stack up too well bar Dingle View winning and only one other horse won since and that was off a lowly mark of 69 on the AW at Kempton. Before that race he ran a good second to Richard Fahey's horse, Chiswick Bey, who placed in the York Yearling Stakes behind stablemate, Wootton Bassett, and was ahead of many other good types. There is some nice pieces of form to be found with my selection and if the rain comes at Musselburgh as forecasts predict then the bit of cut in the ground should help Boundaries greatly, although he handles all ground. He's well drawn in stall 1 and if attempting to make all he has the perfect chance to hug the rail and try and blitz his opponents here but he has 4 contenders for the lead, which based on tactics used lately, would suggest that isn't ideal for him but if he sits in behind them I think he can be equally effective as he finished so strongly in the race behind Dingle View coming off the back of a strong pace, suggesting that he could well prove better ridden that way. David Allan takes the ride and he's a very good jockey in my opinion, he has been on board this fellow 5 times, coming second twice and fourth three times. He was on board the two runs (2nd place finishes) behind the horses I consider to have franked the form to no end. Allan is riding out of his skin so far this month and his strike rate for September is just slightly about 33% from 23 rides (8 won) which is highly impressive. Boundaries is trained by the wonderful Tim Easterby who has seen his yard run into a good run of form over the last month after having a poor enough time of it and interestingly this is the only horse he sends to Musselburgh, which is a course that he has a fine 15% strike rate and 5 of his last 17 (30%) sent here have won. His horses clearly enjoy the course and this fellow seemed to run very well on it last time, though this is a lot tougher. He's now visored for the first time and hopefully that will spark a bit more improvement and get him to concentrate on the job at hand and if it does I feel he's better than a 78 rated animal. I think he has a lot going for him and despite being up against good horses he has a solid chance of coming on for that experience of getting his head in front and could well follow up if getting some luck in running. He's a 4/1 shot in my book so the 6/1 looks generous and worth small stakes. Sharp 5f should suit perfectly and has a perfect draw to decide whether to make all of sit in behind as the likely challengers for the lead are drawn 8, 9 & 10. I expect a good run and even if he doesn't win today I'll be keeping a closer eye on him in the future, he has the ability to do better than he has and seems to have a good attitude. This is my only selection for the day.

[Spooner]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept Redcar 14:40 - Brave Tiger @ 9/4 William Hill (bog) Hills with the only prices out at the moment but I don't think he'll go off bigger than this. I actually took this one on lto but he was well backed and impressed me from the front, never sure how good that form is but all you can say is he done it nicely and looked asif he'll be winning again nto, they obviously like the horse having been really well supported and they enter him just five days later so they'll be looking for a quick double.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept Why o why didnt i take the 25/1 available last night on Highland Warrior in the 4.50 at Musselburgh. 15 to frickin 2 now best price, im an idiot. :@

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept 16:50 Musselburgh Lees Anthem should have a good chance of landing his 2nd race over course and distance and win his 3rd race of the season. Had eight runs as a 2 year old in 2009 and failed to win any of those races, his best run was a 3rd placed finish in a 7 runner field at Doncaster over the minimum trip. Didn't start 2010 in much better order, finished 9/10 at Catterick in a handicap although the penny finally dropped in his next race where he landed a class 6 handicap over todays course and distance off a mark of 55. He was raised 4lbs for that win and then rattled up three succesive 2nd places in a row. Two of which again came over this course and distance off marks of 59 and 63. Couple of efforts since then weren't the best and he dropped back down to a mark of 60 which he took full advantage of by winning over this trip at Ayr. That was the first time 5lb claimer Dale Swift took the ride and he was on board again LTO off a 6lb higher mark at Beverley, reared in the stalls that day which lead to him starting the race slowly but he managed to make some sort of headway around 1f out, was already beaten by that point though. A better break today at a course he clearly acts on should see him in better order and I fancy him to run a good race. Dale Swift takes off 5lbs once again and he also receives a 1lb age allowance. 0.75pts E/W Lees Anthem @ 8/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept 15:30 Brighton Ryan Moore has five rides at his local track today and I feel Zelos Diktator is his best chance of a winner. He rides for his Dad Gary here and the two have a fantastic record at this track when teaming up with a 16% strike rate. Ryan Moore has a 13% strike rate at the track himself and from 7 rides in 2010 here he has won on board 3 and finished 2nd on two which is a 42% win strike rate and a 71% place strike rate which is very impressive. Onto the horse, he has had a busy 2010 with 13 runs so far, only managing one victory but has finished 2nd 3 times, including his last two runs. Only four of those 13 runs have been on turf and he gets in off the same mark of 55 that he has finished 2nd off of in his last two runs. Todays trip is slightly shorter than the 12 furlongs he run over last time, went 1.30 in running before he was headed around a furlong out but I feel the fact he is out again only 7 days later suggests to me that he is still fit and will be up to winning a race very soon and today is definately a great chance for him to be winning a race as it isn't the strongest looking contest. This is the first time Ryan Moore will be on board and I feel that will definately help his chances of winning his 2nd race on the flat. 1pt win Zelos Diktator @ 2/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept

Why o why didnt i take the 25/1 available last night on Highland Warrior in the 4.50 at Musselburgh. 15 to frickin 2 now best price' date=' im an idiot. :@[/quote'] Hugh Taylors selection it is mate.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept 2.00 Brighton Namir isnt getting any younger but he has been in good for recently, winning at Bath on penultimate start with a very smart hold up ride, wasnt given quite such a good ride last time out but finished strongly to suggest he is still capable of defying this new mark. Has won off much higher marks in the past and goes on any ground coniditions. 1pt win Namir 9/4 sj 3.00 Brighton Whieppa Snappa really caught my eye last week at Epsom when appearing not to cope to well with the pace when it was stepped up but eventually got going and rattled home to get 3rd and another furlong he would have been bang there, 1lb lower today (was running out of the handicap last time) and stepped back up in trip. 0.5pt win whippa snappa 10/3 lads 4.30 Brighton Ocean Countess is a useful performer around here having won 4 times and is 2 from 4 over CD. She hasnt been at her best just recently but has slipped in the weights again as a result and is now only 1lb above last winning mark and her connection has opted to also take off usual Cathy Gannon for useful apprentice in Adam Beschizza who is really making an impact right now and really worth his 5lb claim which puts her on a very attractive mark. 0.5pt e/w ocean countess 7/1 sj 5.30 Brighton Dreamacha was another eye catcher for me 2 weeks ago over CD when being beaten by Mushy Peas. Carson decided to take him along stand side rail alone and he raced alone and probably on the slowest ground and yet kept on really well and in the end only went down length and half and deserves credit. He is the least exposed runner in this big field and the one open to more improvement. 0.5pt win Dreamacha 4/1 sj

[kroni]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept 3:00 Brighton Whiepa Snappa @ 10/3 betfred Was an eyecatching finisher last time when well beaten by the improving Rare Tern. Got abit outpaced that day and was well back with a couple of furlongs to go, that was over a mile and half a furlong and today has another 1 and half furlongs (almost). The selection has been placed at his only visit to the track and the ground should be fine today. One concern is hes never actually won a race in 14 starts but dropped down to a class 6 race today should find it easier than last time:hope

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept

Hugh Taylors selection it is mate.

Ye i saw, even he only got 11/1 though. Hills were going 25/1 about 11ish last night, thought i would sleep on it though.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept EBONY SONG 2.30 Brighton. Place Lay. I understand that he's thought of as much better than shown, but until he proves he can do it on the course, the 1/2 about playing will always look attractive to oppose. There's enough in the race to make sure he needs to be upping his game, and I also think this course isn't the easiest for inexperienced types. May go and hit the frame, but that's fine by me at 1/2.

[ELCAKER]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept V unlucky with Guto Aidy....really thought he might nick it with half a furlong to go...

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept INDEPENDANT GIRL 2.45 Listowel. Place Lay. Has the form that sets the mark, but I don't think there's much more to come and I'd not be surprised to see a unkown quantity or more unexposed type pop up and make her work very hard. 2/5 in the place market appeals to me in such an unexposed race.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept

V unlucky with Guto Aidy....really thought he might nick it with half a furlong to go...

Thanks mate i still made a few quid. I was expecting 3/1, i backed it at 5/1 and i got returned an SP of 10/1.. Now thats value :eek It traded at 1.4 in running, really thought it had it. Onto tomorrow. thanks mate :cheers

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept LITTLE MEADOW 3.00 Brighton. 1 point win. Unlucky last time, and although out of the handicap, I think she'll go close today, granted a clear run. The draw's not too bad and the trip and course shouldn't hinder, so at around 12/1 (exchanges) would be a bet for me. For the competition, I'll the take the 11/1 with Vic Chandler.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept DEFENCE OF DURESS 3.10 Redcar. 1 point win. I think he's good value against an unraced Godolphin hotpot. Did ok on debut and looks sure to improve, so ensures the favourite needs to be on his game first time up. The price makes the bet for me.

[cornershop]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept I just put Cat O Nine Lives instead of Tails... :( They won't be that harsh if it wins will they?

[kev2oo9]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept

I just put Cat O Nine Lives instead of Tails... :( They won't be that harsh if it wins will they?

Done the exact same thing when backing it on penultimate start lol Maybe the bookies expect expect people to quote phrases instead of horse names lol

[cornershop]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept

Done the exact same thing when backing it on penultimate start lol Maybe the bookies expect expect people to quote phrases instead of horse names lol

Lost the bet anyway, he won but, I did an each way double and the other horse didn't place.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept 4.50 Musselburgh - Argentine - 25/1 Skybet After much thought and monitoring the market decided to have a small win bet on this one. The small John McShane yard has a decent overall strike rate and this is their star horse. Was in top form last year but the handicapper caught up with him and he's struggled most since bar a win at Southwell in January. Would probably prefer firmer ground but he's relatively lightly raced over cut, goes well at Southwell and the 'good' going should be ok. He's dropped to a very low mark now also, last 2 wins off 74 and 75, today he's off 68 with Lee Topliss claiming 5lb. Form this season mostly poor, but has been running in better races than this. He did however show a bit more lto without the usual blinkers on, stayed on late over 6f at Wolves, his best trip is probably 5f. A likely decent gallop should suit, especially if he's held up which i think he should be from not the best draw. I got 28/1 earlier with VC and a bit of money around for him in the last hour or 2 with many firms cutting his price.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept 1 winner from 3 today so can't complain.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept

Guto - Brighton 2:00 Looking through the form this horse looks a stand-out bet for me tomorrow. It has everything going for it in my opinion. Has the draw, the speed, is fresh from a run, is back to form, is running off a very low mark and is in a Class 6 race. Over this 5 furlong race tomorrow at Brighton, the high numbers tend to do the best so i just concentrated mainly on Stalls 6-10. Guto is in Stall 6 which should be fine. This horse has a lot of speed. It went out in front last time and was just collared very close home, it traded at a low of 1.10 in running on Betfair. It has run only 14 days ago and had been largely out of form up to that point so signs are good that it has come back to near its best. It runs off a very low mark tomorrow. It is only up 1 pound from its last run, and runs off a mark of 58 tomorrow. It has won off a mark of 88 in the past so is 30 pounds better off tomorrow. It has once been rated a 99 animal so to say its well weighted tomorrow would be quite obvious. Guto runs in Class 6 company tomorrow so is down in grade from its last run which is another plus and previously in its career has come 2nd in a Listed event. My conclusion is it should take off in front tomorrow and might not be for catching. It is drawn fine and really should be in the top 3 so even though its a short enough price i am going to back it e/w if i get 5/2 or better. I will update the price in the morning when it comes in

I backed it e/w @ 5/1.. It drifted to 10/1, looked a winner, traded very low in running and was collared close home!!! :$ Im still happy though as i rated Bouncy Bouncy the only danger due to the step back in trip.. Did i do the f/c??? No... Paid £96 :( At least im choosing the right ones.... So far :cow

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 13th Sept

1 winner from 3 today so can't complain.

Your on a roll mate!!! Keep it up :loon