CL draw 2010/11 - Outright and Group bets

[Lazy A--]

Pot 1 Inter Barcelona Man.United Chelsea Arsenal Bayern Milan Lyon Pot 2 Werder Real Madrid Roma Shakhtar Donetsk Benfica Valencia Marseille Panathinaikos Pot 3 Tottenham Rangers Ajax Schalke Basel Braga FC Copenhagen Spartak Moscow Pot 4 Hapoel Tel Aviv Twente Rubin Auxerre CFR Cluj Partizan Zilina Bursaspor The draw is just starting, feel free to comment the groups after it's finished. GL to all teams!

[Lazy A--]

Re: CL draw & groups 2010/11 And so here are all the groups: Group A Inter Werder Tottenham Hapoel Group B Lyon Benfica Schalke Hapoel Tel Aviv Group C Man.United Valencia Rangers Bursaspor Group D Barcelona Panathinaikos FC Copenhagen Rubin Group E Bayern Roma Basel CFR Cluj Group F Chelsea Marseille Spartak Moscow Zilina Group G Milan Real Madrid Ajax Auxerre Group H Arsenal Shakhtar Braga Partizan

[torn up slip]

Re: CL draw & groups 2010/11 Is anybody aware of any bookie offering a fixed odds bet if you can predict say 12 of the 16 teams to qualify? I always have a wild stab at predicitng all 16 but I fancy something where the odds swing back slightly in my favour. As for my other bets I think I'll be taking Barca for obvious reasons. Easiest draw of all the fancied teams and only the one potentially difficult away tie due to harsh weather. Prior to the draw I was considering playing the Barca/Real final but given Real's draw I think I'll avoid that. My main bet though is likely to be Rangers to finish bottom of their group. They're just an exceptionally poor team, Utd will take maximum points of them and I fancy Valencia to do the same as well. They still have enough talent in their squad despite the losses of Silva and Villa. Bursaspor I admittedly know nothing about but any team that can come through the qualifiers is none too shaby and as Rangers qualified for the Groups automatically via a piss poor league im willing to take them to finish bottom at anything above evens.

[Lazy A--]

Re: CL draw & groups 2010/11 Some views on group H... Braga is a very tough team, which is getting better and better each season, but I think they are already becoming a bit overrated. The goals they have scored against Sevilla, well, 3 out of 4 were cause of direct Sevilla's GK Palop mistakes, and before that they beat Celtic, which is pathetic these days, and have lost to Utrecht yesterday by 4:0! I am not saying Braga isn't good, on the contrary, but I think they won't win any away match. I am pretty sure about that. Also, I think all teams from group H will have a very hard time in Belgrade due to well-known crazy fans, which are getting louder and more organized as the importance of the matches rises. And the importance of the upcoming 3 CL home matches is the biggest it can be, and I am sure no team will have it easy in Belgrade, especially now when a few more quite solid players will arrive to Partizan. Arsenal and Shakhtar are also not top notch teams at the moment, and are playing a bit unstable at times, especially away, so I believe Braga and Partizan could take an advantage of that on their home fields. I think there is no clear favorite for neither place, just like Arsenal is not sure to be in the first spot, same goes for Partizan and the last spot. We could be seeing a lot of both negative and positive surprises in this group this autumn.

[froment]

Re: CL draw & groups 2010/11

Some views on group H... Braga is a very tough team, which is getting better and better each season, but I think they are already becoming a bit overrated. The goals they have scored against Sevilla, well, 3 out of 4 were cause of direct Sevilla's GK Palop mistakes

Then they have a reasonable chances to score 4 more against Partizan, as also 3 out of 4 goals that Anderlecht scored in two legs were mistakes of Partizan's goalkeeper Radisa Ilic. :eyes (Edit: Ehm, just to be fair, he also had a couple of brave savings, when everyone already saw ball in the net, but Ilic succeeded to save it! It's kinda like Dida of Milan sometimes... ;) ) I'm incredibly glad that Partizan made it to group stage, this is their first appearance there after seven years; unlike previous several seasons, they finally have stable and experienced team, mostly thanks to coach Aleksandar Stanojevic, who is well accepted by all players, has authority and proved to know to choose the right strategy, and I believe they can easily avoid last place in the group, and with a bit of luck, runner-up position is also achievable, I hope. :loon Just for reference, on its way to group stage, Partizan kicked out Pyunik Yerevan, HJK Helsinki and Anderlecht.

[Lazy A--]

Re: CL draw & groups 2010/11 Partizan hired the Serbian number one over the past few years, and former Red Star's goalie (their biggest city rival), Vladimir Stojkovic. A big scandal in Serbia, as Stojkovic has always been saying he is a big RS fan, etc. It's not common that players make such transfers in that country. Anyway, no more Radisa Ilic :nana Braga also reinforced their squad quite a lot, bringing two very solid players, Viana from Valencia and Castro from Guimaraes. Arsenal, from what I know, doesn't hold practices in their away games, the day before the kick-off but Wenger rather has them practice in the morning before the flight, which is kind of strange, but I guess it has worked for them so far. They are, ofc, the biggest favorites to win the group, but could easily get shocked on the road against each one of the teams. Shakhtar is playing worse than last season, that's a sure thing. They might disappoint many punters, I will wait to see the first game against Partizan and Donetsk and then will be able to create a better picture about them.

[Jenspm]

Re: CL draw 2010/11 - Outright and Group bets Changed the title slightly.. Outright Winner Lay Barcelona @ 3.9 - Betfair I cannot believe this price. Sure, they've won it before and they are rightful favourites, but 3.9 is way too low. They have got a nice group, fair enough, but after that they'll thrown into a round of 16, and have to win on aggregate four times in a row, against the best teams in Europe. Essentially, this is a five-fold bet consisting of the following bets: 1. Barcelona advance from the group stage 2. Barcelona wins the round of 16 3. Barcelona wins in the quarter-final 4. Barcelona wins in the semi-final 5. Barcelona wins in the final If we disregard the first bet, we're looking at odds of 3.9 on Barcelona to beat 4 of Europes best teams - that would mean that, on average, Barcelona would have odds of 1.4 to win on aggregate in all their ties. Hardly value, imo, considering the fact that they may be up against teams such as Chelsea, Man United, Real Madrid, Inter, Arsenal, Bayern etc etc. An easy bet in my opinion, they are clearly under-priced. Compare 3.9 to the 6.8 that can be had for Chelsea and it becomes even clearer.

[archie7]

Re: CL draw & groups 2010/11

And so here are all the groups: Group A Inter Werder Tottenham Hapoel

I think there's a mistake here mate. It should be Twente instead of Hapoel:ok

[archie7]

Re: CL draw 2010/11 - Outright and Group bets

Changed the title slightly.. Outright Winner Lay Barcelona @ 3.9 - Betfair I cannot believe this price. Sure, they've won it before and they are rightful favourites, but 3.9 is way too low. They have got a nice group, fair enough, but after that they'll thrown into a round of 16, and have to win on aggregate four times in a row, against the best teams in Europe. Essentially, this is a five-fold bet consisting of the following bets: 1. Barcelona advance from the group stage 2. Barcelona wins the round of 16 3. Barcelona wins in the quarter-final 4. Barcelona wins in the semi-final 5. Barcelona wins in the final If we disregard the first bet, we're looking at odds of 3.9 on Barcelona to beat 4 of Europes best teams - that would mean that, on average, Barcelona would have odds of 1.4 to win on aggregate in all their ties. Hardly value, imo, considering the fact that they may be up against teams such as Chelsea, Man United, Real Madrid, Inter, Arsenal, Bayern etc etc. An easy bet in my opinion, they are clearly under-priced. Compare 3.9 to the 6.8 that can be had for Chelsea and it becomes even clearer.

Completely agree with you here:ok Do you think, considering that they are drawn in a relatively easy group and might score some big wins, that the price on them will come down in the short-term at least till the group stage is over?

[archie7]

Re: CL draw 2010/11 - Outright and Group bets 2 hopeful bets, 1 medium-term and 1 long-term:hope Group A Winner Inter Milan @ 1.72 (PaddyPower) I think that Inter are a cut here above the other 3 teams in the group(Twente, Tottenham, Werder). Quality wise, I dont see them losing to any of the teams here. There is also a strong incentive in CL matches to win because of $$ paid when they win (€0.8 million to be exact). They would also want to top their group to avoid being drawn with the stronger teams in this competition(winner play runner-up of other groups). Overall, I think this is a pretty likely bet considering Inter will have strong incentive to not lose any games. CL Top Goal Scorer Lionel Messi Top 4 Goalscorer @ 2.5 (PaddyPower) Nice price here I think. With the relatively easy group that Barcelona drew, Id fancy Messi to get a few goals early here easily. For the past 3 seasons, Messi has been in top 4 goalscorer in CL and I think he'll do that again this year if he stays fit. As a side bet, same flat stake (1unit) on Lyon to win Champions League outright at 80 (Betfair) No, Im not crazy:dude. I dont think they will win but Id give them a good chance of progressing past the group stages. Odds of 1.5 to Qualify is too short for me. I do believe that the outright markets will shorten alot more to give > 0.5unit profit when (or if) we do lay it later. GL

[Jenspm]

Re: CL draw 2010/11 - Outright and Group bets

Completely agree with you here:ok Do you think' date=' considering that they are drawn in a relatively easy group and might score some big wins, that the price on them will come down in the short-term at least till the group stage is over?[/quote'] well that depends really. To me, an easy win in the group shouldn't affect the odds too much as this is to be expected. In any case I cannot see them going below 3.5, that would be madness. However, if they draw or lose a game and barely win a couple it could well jump to around 5's.

[archie7]

Re: CL draw 2010/11 - Outright and Group bets Good call, following you on that one! I was just waiting to see if you were right. I followed the outright markets for CL winners and Barcelona price stayed fairly constant. Lay prices might possibly come down to 3.85 at most despite them trashing Pana 5-1. :ok

[doink]

Re: UEFA Europa League 2010-2011 Winner Chelsea @ 8.4 - Betfair They have been given a perfect draw for the last 8 imo. Untied are battling on 3 fronts, they can't even go easy in the FA with being drawn against city. With the league not wrapped up and with it being the elusive number 19, they can't rest players. With Rio out for these games their defence is also weak. Chelsea will go through and meet a less than convincing Inter or Schalke. Barca in the final? Be tough but they have a great recent record against them.

[Mustafa]

Re: CL draw 2010/11 - Outright and Group bets Really like the odds on Man.United to win CL @ 2.60-2.70. They played really good in CL this season and really can't understand why Barcelona is favorites @ 1.40-1.50. IMO both teams have equal chance of lifting the trophy. I guess many people will agree that this is a coin flip which means both teams have 50% chance here. While bookies give Barcelona 67% and Man.United 38%. So, there is definitely a value in backing Man.United and I think price will drop closer to final. Man.United @ 2.62 Ladbrokes