Grex Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 148 bets +19% yield The weekend's selections just about broke even. I am in an internet cafe in Buenos Aires, and the very slow connection will not allow me to post the updated tables. I will try to sort the problem out before the weekend :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 148 bets +19% yield A bad weekend, with only one winner out of 5 (Cardiff and Chelsea were postponed). I am still having problems posting the tables via a very slow internet connection from Buenos Aires, but I will try to sort the problem soon. To summarise, the yield is down to 14% after 162 bets :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 162 bets +14% yield 14 is still a great yield! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 162 bets +14% yield 27% from the overs is an even better yield! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 162 bets +14% yield 27% from the overs is an even better yield! Agreed.... the "overs" are certainly out-performing the "unders".... but with only half the number of bets. So, you could argue that the "unders" are statistically more robust. It will be interesting to see if there is any convergence in the performances as the season progresses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 162 bets +14% yield Still having problems with posting the pretty tables.... so, Boxing Day's selections in black-and-white.... OVERS Fulham - West Ham @ 2.25, >3.5 @ 3.85 Everton - Birmingham @ 2.20, >3.5 @ 3.69 Wolves - Wigan @ 2.22, >3.5 @ 3.76 Reading - Bristol City @ 1.91, >3.5 @ 3.06 UNDERS Blackpool - Liverpool @ 2.14 Bolton - West Brom @ 2.07 Aston Villa - Tottenham @ 2.02 Crystal Palace - Norwich @ 1.89 Barnsley - Burnley @ 1.89 Derby - Doncaster @ 1.88 Ipswich - Watford @ 1.88 Leicester - Leeds @ 1.99 Scunthorpe - Preston @ 2.11 ..... and a very MERRY CHRISTMAS to everyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 162 bets +14% yield Great start Grex, all the best for the rest of the fixtures:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 162 bets +14% yield Great start Grex' date=' all the best for the rest of the fixtures:clap[/quote'] Thanks, Averick. There aren't many fixtures left for today, unfortunately. The matches at Blackpool, Everton, Crystal Palace, Derby, Ipswich and Scunthorpe are all OFF....... leaving only 7 survivors :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 169 bets +15% yield Might have to start backing the +3.5s. Fantastic yield so far. And the +2.5s continue to perform well. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 169 bets +15% yield Yes, the +3.5s continue to amaze me..... if I were a betting man, I might also risk a few quid myself :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
countdacash Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 178 bets +14% yield Let's hope it's a good one without falling yield!! (Sorry John + Yoko) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 178 bets +14% yield Hi Grex I've been following your threads for a couple of months now. Great work! I note that a while back you found that in relation to the Unders, applying your selections to the Under 1.5 and Under 2 markets produced a lower yield. Have you done any testing on how your Unders selections would have fared on UNDER 3.5 market? Just a thought given this weeks results and the improved yield you get from the Over 3.5s Cheers NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
korupsi Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 185 bets +12% yield Hi grex.. This is my first post in this forum and just because of you :$ I can understand your system in Short Price Home system.. But, in this thread i can't understand your system to select the match and select which match that will be over or under.. :cry And i'm very sorry, can u explain me again? Thank you :notworthy sorry for my bad english. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 185 bets +12% yield Based on backtesting starting from the 2002/03 season, I have developed an O/U probability "equation" for matches in the English Premier, Championship and League 1. Having predicted the probability, the value of the O/U odds being offered can be calculated. Selections will be based on a range of value percentages (all >100%) that have produced the best performance during backtesting. So basically he compares his calculated probability with the available odds. Matches that show extra value with a certain percentage range (which is predefined based on his backtesting) will be chosen. Hope I got it right! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 185 bets +12% yield Precisely, Averick..... all the selections show theoretical value greater than 100%. There is an element of "data farming", in that the percentage ranges differ from league to league. That is why I tend to get EP selections at higher odds than the EC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 185 bets +12% yield Well, the final selection of the weekend ended very "un-under" at 3-3 :sad Because of problems with my internet connection, I can't post the updated tables..... suffice to say that the overall yield continues to fall.... 11% after 186 bets :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 186 bets +11% yield Thank God they didn't take those chances :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 195 bets +13% yield Yield for the +3.5s remains massive. Cracking stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 195 bets +13% yield Yes.... the +3.5s continue to out-perform both the over and under 2.5s. The yield has fallen recently from 75% after 45 bets, to 53% after 63 bets.... but still better than a kick-in-the-ass :tongue2 By the way, thanks again to Jimjohn for pointing me in the right direction regarding the +3.5s :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 195 bets +13% yield Just been looking at PL's UK football forum on tonight's Blackpool game, and nearly everybody is predicting >2.5.... with a large proportion going for >3.5....:unsure :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 195 bets +13% yield 1-1 after 12 minutes :loon..... looks like the PL pundits were spot on :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fearthainn Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 195 bets +13% yield Keep the faith, only 45 to go! Although in bets involving Liverpool the only bad outcome for me is if I lose my bet and Liverpool win at the same time, otherwise there's always a positive... So, more goals are welcome too as long as they're scored by the tangerine army :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishStokie Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 196 bets +13% yield what do u think about the prem this weekend mate? theres a lot of rivalry matches which can be a good for unders/overs usually. I was thinking : Liverpool-everton over 2.5 @ 2.10 Stoke-Bolton under 2.5 @ 1.66 West brom-Blackpool over 2.5 @ 1.57 Odds are pretty low for the last 2 though, thats the only thing. All odds @ Paddypower Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 196 bets +13% yield what do u think about the prem this weekend mate? Hi Evanzzz.... you asked me what I "think"...... unfortunately I don't think :tongue2.... I just let the system's statistics and criteria produce the predictions. All I can say at the moment is that if you're thinking of betting on your suggestions, then shop around for better odds - Pinnacle odds are much better than the ones you quote. I will let you know the system's selections on Friday :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 196 bets +13% yield You don't think? What about this then: "I think, I think I am, therefore I am, I think" Are you not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 196 bets +13% yield Thanks for pointing out the discrepancy between my post comment and my signature, Lardonio.... good to see that somebody actually reads signatures. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 196 bets +13% yield :welcome to PL, NGS and korupsi. I hope you enjoy the place, and post some interesting insights.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 205 bets +12% yield Go go gadget +3.5s! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 205 bets +12% yield Go go gadget +3.5s! The excellent performance of the +3.5s continues....... seriously considering dropping the "unders" and concentrating on either +2.5 or +3.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh2 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 207 bets +13% yield Hey, I've been reading a couple of your pages at the start (the thread got a bit long and it's late here) and your system looks like it's working well - is it still? Can i ask how you are selecting the matches? I'm not so sure i get the whole method myself lol - sorry i'm quite new to betting. Thanks, Jamie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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