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Grex's OVERS; 353 bets; +3.7% yield


Grex

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Despite the stupid title, this is a serious attempt to make some profit out of the O/U 2.5 market. Based on backtesting starting from the 2002/03 season, I have developed an O/U probability "equation" for matches in the English Premier, Championship and League 1. Having predicted the probability, the value of the O/U odds being offered can be calculated. Selections will be based on a range of value percentages (all >100%) that have produced the best performance during backtesting. I don't expect incredible yield, but any profit would be nice. ;) There doesn't seem to be any advantage in waiting until the season has "matured" i.e. after 6 rounds of matches, so I will start posting selections as from this weekend. This is a trial only..... no real money, please :dude

Edited by Grex
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Thanks, Relf..... nice to hear from you. I will also continue the "Short Priced Home Favourites" thread, but not until after 6 rounds of matches. Are you going to continue your "Close Games" thread?..... it looked very promising :clap

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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Hmm, I'm still in the midst of finding way to further improve the 'Close Games' system. Might tweak the selection criterion slightly, and German Bundesliga could be added as well. Hopefully I can find time to complete my back-testing before the season kicks off. (Thankfully the rest of countries kick off later, unlike EPL.)

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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Good luck with the Bundesliga, Relf..... I have tried to include it in all the various systems I have developed, but that League seems to be a law unto itself.... it does not seem to follow the statistical pattern of other leagues.

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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Well, after all the hype, not a single selection this weekend. Usually the system selects on average about 15% of matches, so this is very strange. Probably next weekend, we will have 100% selections :tongue2

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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) OK... we have some this weekend. Apologies for not producing my usual colourful tables yet.... I will try to sort it out for next weekend English Premier 14/08 Aston Villa - West Ham OVER @ 2.17 14/08 Sunderland - Birmingham OVER @ 2.29 14/08 Wigan - Blackpool OVER @ 2.20 14/08 Wolves - Stoke OVER @ 2.40 Championship 14/08 Portsmouth - Reading UNDER @ 1.84 14/08 Scunthorpe - Norwich UNDER @ 1.90 14/08 Watford - Coventry UNDER @ 1.88 Odds from Pinnacle Stakes: 10 units on each selection Good luck :hope

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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop)

OK... we have some this weekend. Apologies for not producing my usual colourful tables yet.... I will try to sort it out for next weekend English Premier 14/08 Aston Villa - West Ham OVER @ 2.17 14/08 Sunderland - Birmingham OVER @ 2.29 14/08 Wigan - Blackpool OVER @ 2.20 14/08 Wolves - Stoke OVER @ 2.40 Championship 14/08 Portsmouth - Reading UNDER @ 1.84 14/08 Scunthorpe - Norwich UNDER @ 1.90 14/08 Watford - Coventry UNDER @ 1.88 Odds from Pinnacle Stakes: 10 units on each selection Good luck :hope
Would have been 100% if not for a last minute penalty... What can I say? AMAZING! :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop)

English Premier 14/08 Aston Villa - West Ham OVER @ 2.17 3-0 :ok 14/08 Sunderland - Birmingham OVER @ 2.29 2-2 :ok 14/08 Wigan - Blackpool OVER @ 2.20 0-4 :ok 14/08 Wolves - Stoke OVER @ 2.40 2-1 :ok Championship 14/08 Portsmouth - Reading UNDER @ 1.84 1-1 :ok 14/08 Scunthorpe - Norwich UNDER @ 1.90 0-1 :ok 14/08 Watford - Coventry UNDER @ 1.88 2-2 :eyes
Thanks, Relf and Skycity (and congratulations on Blackburn's victory, Relf :ok). A yield (Return on Investment) of 97% is a good start.... but let's not get carried away..... beginner's luck I'm sure ;)
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop)

Superb start! :clap:clap:clap :hope
Thanks, Perfect.... as I said, I'm sure it is only beginners luck... shall we see :hope
Have you excel table for that? Thanks!
Do you mean for the presentation of results, or for identifying the selections ?
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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) I would prefer to keep the "mathematics" of the selection system confidential.... if it turns out to produce consistent profit then, perhaps, I will "go public". :ok

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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) It seems to me that Birmingham/Blackburn is more likely to be Unders, and Wigan/Chelsea is more likely to be Overs. But I guess the odds represent some value. Good luck too!

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Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Thanks, Relf.... sorry about Blackburn. Well, with Chelsea currently winning 3-0, that bet is lost.... so, it is 2 wins, 2 losses with a positive yield on the day of 11%. Not quite up to last weekend's standards, but a profit is a profit. :) I'll post the updated table later.

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