Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July

[fisker]

	Saturday 10 July 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Aalesunds FK v Molde (15:00 BST)	2.1	3.55	3.61	103.49 %
	Haugesund v Brann (17:00 BST)	2.31	3.3	3.21	104.75 %
	Hønefoss BK v Tromsø (17:00 BST)	3.75	3.65	2.15	100.58 %
	Lillestrøm SK v Rosenborg BK (17:00 BST)	3.15	3.45	2.34	103.47 %
	Sandefjord Fotball v Start (17:00 BST)	2.72	3.4	2.7	103.21 %
	Stabæk v Viking FK (17:00 BST)	2.17	3.65	3.45	102.47 %
	Sunday 11 July 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Kongsvinger IL v Strømsgodset (15:00 BST)	2.6	3.4	2.6	106.33 %
	Monday 12 July 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Odd Grenland v VÃ¥lerenga (18:00 BST)	2.37	3.4	3	104.85 %

[FCP]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July

Event	Aalesund - Molde
Selection	Molde AH+0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	10/07/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.76 (Back)
Reasoning	Molde has a good tradition to maintain at Color Line Stadium: on the last decade they never lost there. Four games played, two draws and two wins, 8-3 in goals. Like this, Molde will play there very motivated and confident as they have here a game that can change the bad season they are doing. Of course Aalesund is favorite here but i think Molde can show his value in this game as they will play with a very positive attitude. A draw or a away win would not be a surprise, at least for me.

[FCP]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July

Event	Lillestrom - Rosenborg
Selection	Rosenborg AH -0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	10/07/2010
Bookmaker/Price	188bet @ 1.88 (Back)
Reasoning	Lillestrom is on a very poor moment of form. They have at the moment two consecutive defeats and before those defeats they draw the previous two games. This means that they don't win since May,19, five games ago. Rosenborg is on a superb moment. They won all the last five games, and on the last one, counting for the Cup, they smashed Sandefjord away by 4-1. Away they are undefeated so far but they already draw 4 of the 7 games they played on that condition. I think they are big favorite to win, but i prefer to cover it with AH, also as it is never easy to play at Lillestrom.

[fisker]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July hmm, i dont like any of the games this round, very open round in my eyes.

[fisker]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July

Event	Aalesund - Molde
Selection	Molde AH+0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	10/07/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.76 (Back)
Reasoning	Molde has a good tradition to maintain at Color Line Stadium: on the last decade they never lost there. Four games played' date= two draws and two wins, 8-3 in goals. Like this, Molde will play there very motivated and confident as they have here a game that can change the bad season they are doing. Of course Aalesund is favorite here but i think Molde can show his value in this game as they will play with a very positive attitude. A draw or a away win would not be a surprise, at least for me.

Aalesund - Molde is a derby match, very open, but good luck:)

[red_impact]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July

Event	Lillestrom - Rosenborg
Selection	Rosenborg AH -0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	10/07/2010
Bookmaker/Price	188bet @ 1.88 (Back)
Reasoning	Lillestrom is on a very poor moment of form. They have at the moment two consecutive defeats and before those defeats they draw the previous two games. This means that they don't win since May' date='19, five games ago. Rosenborg is on a superb moment. They won all the last five games, and on the last one, counting for the Cup, they smashed Sandefjord away by 4-1. Away they are undefeated so far but they already draw 4 of the 7 games they played on that condition. I think they are big favorite to win, but i prefer to cover it with AH, also as it is never easy to play at Lillestrom.

No way I am backing Rosenborg in this match. I am reading the lineups and both Rade Prica and Anthony Annan are missing. Not good news so no bet.

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July Sandefjord v IK Start Sandefjord @ 2.75 - betsson Sandefjord are desperate for points here, and they're much better at home than away. They held Stabæk to 1-1 and Viking to 0-0 in their last two home matches, and recently held Rosenborg to a single goal away. They're 1-3-3 at home, with 5 goals scored and 6 allowed. The last number is impressive, the first one - not so much. But their oposition is severely out of form as well, and haven't gotten a point away since beaten a shaky Brann side in April. They were recently dominated 4-2 by Haugesund, and I wouldn't be surprised if Sandefjord grab the win here. Start have allowed 19 goals in 7 away matches so far, and this should give a defensively solid Sandefjord side posibilities for a win.

[TOTTI3]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July Lillestrom Rosenborg = 2 (2.10) stake 3 / 10 over (1.66) stake 5 / 10 bet365 Lillestrom is fifth in the standings with 23 points in 15 games with a score in the home of W4-D3-L1 goals scored 19 goals conceded 8 Rosenborg is the first in the standings with 33 points in 15 games with a score out of house w3 d4-l0-8 goals conceded four goals scored Lillestrom lost the last game at home to Rosenborg and Valerenga 1-4 to won the last game at home to Sandefjord 1-0. Preview: Lillestrom: Suspended Søgård Espen Then Lillestrom lacks its most representative player Tarik Elyounoussi (Mid / Att) In Rosenborg all players are available except Prica, Annan is in doubt. This encounter is characterized by a visiting team in greater evidence than the home team. My prediction is 2/over :hope:hope:hope

[fisker]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July Well done FCP ;)

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July Good stuff FCP, a loss for me :(

[TOTTI3]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July

Lillestrom Rosenborg = 2 (2.10) stake 3 / 10 over (1.66) stake 5 / 10 bet365 Lillestrom is fifth in the standings with 23 points in 15 games with a score in the home of W4-D3-L1 goals scored 19 goals conceded 8 Rosenborg is the first in the standings with 33 points in 15 games with a score out of house w3 d4-l0-8 goals conceded four goals scored Lillestrom lost the last game at home to Rosenborg and Valerenga 1-4 to won the last game at home to Sandefjord 1-0. Preview: Lillestrom: Suspended Søgård Espen Then Lillestrom lacks its most representative player Tarik Elyounoussi (Mid / Att) In Rosenborg all players are available except Prica, Annan is in doubt. This encounter is characterized by a visiting team in greater evidence than the home team. My prediction is 2/over :hope:hope:hope

Profit :cow:clap:ok:clap:cow

[FCP]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July

Event	Odd Grenland - Valerenga
Selection	Over 2,5
Strength	10/10
Date	12/07/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bwin @ 1.67 (Back)
Reasoning	On the last 10 games between these two teams, the games were very balanced with four wins and four defeats for each team, and two draws. 40 goals scored which gives a average of 4 goals per game. Valerenga also has the best attack of the competition with 31 goals scored so far. As i said before, the last season game ended on a draw despite a big pressure of Odd Grenland on the final. And they got a penalty few minutes before the end. But they missed it... This game seems to be made for over 2,5 goals and the odd is not so bad...

[Psycho]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July

Event	Odd Grenland vs Valerenga
Selection	Over 3
Strength	10/10
Date	12/07/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.94 (Back)
Reasoning	Well, there's really not much to say. Today we have got a match between two teams who score many goals and concede many as well. Last 6 matches between these two have had at least 3 goals and over 3 goals has been in each of both clubs' respective matches. Clear high scoring affair in prospect.

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July I agree with you guys; Odd Grenland v Vålerenga Over 2.5 goals @ 1.63 - betfair This is truely a game that can go either way. Both teams have shown that they are effective in front of goal and shaky at the back. Vålerengas two main strikers last round, Shelton and Mohammed Abdelloue, both scored twice against Lillestrøm and are clearly in form. However, one must remember that this game was 0-0 at half time, and that Vålerenga scored their first three goals in four minutes in the second half. Still, this is an obvious sign of effectivity. They let in a late goal at the end to to some terrible defending as well. 0-0 was also the scoreline after 45 minutes in Odd's game against Viking last round, before Martin Fillo scored a quick hat-trick in the second half. A deserved 3-1 loss for Odd that was, but they bounced back to crush Hønefoss 5-1 away, including two goals from the big guy up front, Peter Kovacs. They showed they enjoy attacking football, impressively taking the lead 3-0 away at halftime. Vålerenga are also a team who prefers to attack, and I can see quite a few goals in this one. Head to head, their last five games have gone over.

[allthethings]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July I can think of three reasons to think this game could be low-scoring: 1. Odd at home are coming off four straight unders. 2. Both teams are 50/50 over/under at home (Odd) and away (Valerenga). 3. I see the line rising at my book; the odds started even money for O3 and is now 1.83. All the money flowing toward overs (90% of bets on over 2.5 at the moment), which to me means value on U3. The best *statistical* argument here for overs is h2h (four straight overs in league, including Valerenga's 6-1 win at home against Odd earlier this year). The "average goals per game" argument is silly: what matters is how many games go over, and how many go under, not whether one game finished 6-1 or 5-3, skewing the averages. If the odds keep rising past 2.00 (it's 1.97 now) I will be on U3 for this one.

[allthethings]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July

Event	Odd Grenland - Valerenga
Selection	Over 2' date='5
Strength	10/10
Date	12/07/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bwin @ 1.67 (Back)
Reasoning	On the last 10 games between these two teams, the games were very balanced with four wins and four defeats for each team, and two draws. 40 goals scored which gives a average of 4 goals per game. Valerenga also has the best attack of the competition with 31 goals scored so far. As i said before, the last season game ended on a draw despite a big pressure of Odd Grenland on the final. And they got a penalty few minutes before the end. But they missed it... This game seems to be made for over 2,5 goals and the odd is not so bad...

Even with the great attack, Valerenga in 15 league games have gone under 2.5 in 7 games, 4 games of exactly 3 goals and 4 games of 4+ goals. Odd have gone under 2.5 in 6 games, have had 1 game of exactly 3 goals, and 8 games of 4+ goals. Punters' observations about the styles of play and goal-scoring and conceding abilities may be 100% true, but Valerenga have gone over 2.5 goals 53% of their games, and Odd 60%. At home, Odd's games have gone over 2.5 goals 43% of the time; Valerenga away 50%. Overs are 50/50 here, as always.

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July Stats are stats, but there's a whole lot more to a football match. 1. Odd are at home and expected to attack, while Vålerenga almost always play an attacking style of football. 2. Both teams will be full of confidence - Vålerenga beating rivals Lillestrøm 4-1 and Odd beating Hønefoss 5-1 away. Confident sides often like to attack. 3. The 3 main strikers are all in top form, and all three scored two goals in their last game. I expect a wide open match, the most entertaining of the week-end. However, if you feel the overs are 50/50, you have the value of the century :) (Now watch it go 0-0)

[allthethings]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July

Stats are stats, but there's a whole lot more to a football match. 1. Odd are at home and expected to attack, while Vålerenga almost always play an attacking style of football. 2. Both teams will be full of confidence - Vålerenga beating rivals Lillestrøm 4-1 and Odd beating Hønefoss 5-1 away. Confident sides often like to attack. 3. The 3 main strikers are all in top form, and all three scored two goals in their last game. I expect a wide open match, the most entertaining of the week-end. However, if you feel the overs are 50/50, you have the value of the century :) (Now watch it go 0-0)

As I said, "Punters' observations about the styles of play and goal-scoring and conceding abilities may be 100% true." I also believe that h2h from the current season can matter quite a bit...it could be that the 6-1 game is an indication that Valerenga matches up with Odd well for goal chances. I'm just saying that a) the ball is round, b) goal chances don't always translate into goals, c) many other such trenchant observations, and d) the two teams' stats are inconclusive. When their games go over, they go way over, but so far this season they only go over between 53% and 60% of the time in all games, and between 43% and 50% of the time in these circumstances (Odd home, Valerenga away). h2h, it's 100% in 2010 and 2009.

[TOTTI3]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July Odd- Valerenga = over (1.50) bet365 stake 5 / 10 Odd is the eleventh in the standings with 21 points in 15 games with a score in the home of w2-l2-d3 10 goals scored 9 goals conceded Valerenga is third in the standings with 28 points in 15 games with a score out of house w3-d2-l3 goals scored 13 goals conceded 12 Odd has lost the last game 1-3 away from home while Valerenga Viking won 1-4 away against Lillestrom. Preview: Odd: Absent: Simen Brenne. Valerenga: Absent: Luton Shelton; Injured: Birger Madsen. When these two teams meet the performance is assured. Both teams are very good at scoring attack for having quality and suffer a lot of goals because the defenses are not very strong and aggressive. So my prediction is over. :hope:hope:hope

[TonyCarey]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July Odd Grenland vs Valerenga My preview: Odd so strong at home, no lose at home since 11.04 from RBK, last 5 matches at home 3draws and 2wins GD - 9:4 VIFK is the second team scored two-number goals after RBK, last 5 matches away 1L 2D 2wins GD - 8:6 . I think VIFK can win 2nd place in the end of season From h2h stats i expect goals. My bet both teams to score @ 1,50 8/10 VIFK @ 2.70 3/10 Good Luck :hope FT 1:2 - both bets won

[allthethings]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July One more note...I focus on two things when evaluating overs: 1) Inability to keep a clean sheet and/or inability to score, and 2) ability of a team to score or concede multiple goals in a game. I believe the first is more important than the second. That is, teams that have a lot of 1-1 games tend more toward overs than those that have a lot of 2-0 and 0-2 games, with the reason being that 2-0 or 0-2 games often play out tactically with one team in a defensive posture. Anyway, I don't see so many clean sheets/no scores for Odd and Valerenga, which is a good sign for overs. Odd's games have had four out of 30 (meaning them and their opponents combined in 15 matches), Valerenga eight out of 30. On the other hand, Valerenga or their opponents have only scored multiple goals in 11 of 30 "sides," Odd or their opponents in 12 of 30. We'll see. The line on the under 3 has only gotten to 1.99, so I'm still on the fence.

[TOTTI3]

Re: Norwegian Tippeliga 10-12 July

Odd- Valerenga = over (1.50) bet365 stake 5 / 10 Odd is the eleventh in the standings with 21 points in 15 games with a score in the home of w2-l2-d3 10 goals scored 9 goals conceded Valerenga is third in the standings with 28 points in 15 games with a score out of house w3-d2-l3 goals scored 13 goals conceded 12 Odd has lost the last game 1-3 away from home while Valerenga Viking won 1-4 away against Lillestrom. Preview: Odd: Absent: Simen Brenne. Valerenga: Absent: Luton Shelton; Injured: Birger Madsen. When these two teams meet the performance is assured. Both teams are very good at scoring attack for having quality and suffer a lot of goals because the defenses are not very strong and aggressive. So my prediction is over. :hope:hope:hope

Profit :nana:clap:ok:nana:clap