Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Attached my spreadsheet here for anyone who wants a look. Red = Drifter and/or Loser Orange = Price didn't move Purple = Steamer Green = Profitable bet Watch your eyes, it literally blinds people! :lol

conv_1654.xls

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Gala Casino Star ran a good race to finish in 5th place, staying on well towards the end but never doing enough to get involved in the finish (missed out on a place by a neck). There's races to be won with him yet and I'll be backing him again soon. Ocean Transit was completely unsuited by the stop-start nature of her race and got outpaced quite easily once the tempo lifted having originally been slowed down. Doubt she'll be doing much more racing any time soon and even if she was out again, I'd only get involved if there was plenty of pace on over this sort of distance, or else is she was steeped back in trip. Nice horse though and today wasn't her true running. There was plenty of money around for Magical Macey during the day and he hit as low as 10/1. However, he went off at 16's and I feared the worst. There was no need though, as he showed plenty of his usual dash throughout and finished well to come 2nd in a blanket finish, only finding the winner much too good. There could be a race in him if he got to dominate proceedings and he's gone into the notebook. Decent return from an e/w bet at 20/1, but it could of been nicer! Shallow Bay was the unlucky horse of the day, as he was caught with nowhere to go in his race at Sandown. He wasn't drawn well and raced 6-wide throughout before encountering a wall of horses when going notably well. He eventually got out as they met the rising ground but got badly hampered when staying on well. I'd imagine he'd of finished 3rd or 4th but for getting mauled. Had he got a nice position early and had a clear run, I've no doubt that he'd of won as he's going to prove to be the best horse in that race IMO. Definitely keeping him on side next time out, especially if he gets some cut in the ground. A mark of 86 is not beyond him at all. -4.00pts on the day. Disappointing but it could of been worse. Could of been better too mind! Early one for tomorrow - back with reasoning later. 2:10 York - Embsay Crag - 1pt e/w @ 28/1 (WillHill) Doubt the price will change much anyways but it's much too big. 4 places paid too.

[Monterosso]

Backed this one again. 2pts e/w total. 2:10 York - Embsay Crag - 2pts e/w @ 28/1 (WillHill) This is a Lady Amateur Riders' Handicap so anything could happen, but Embsay Crag is a crazy price at 28/1. He hasn't won for nearly 2 years but overall, his form is more than solid and in that time he's only had 11 outings, which isn't excessive by any means. Also, he's placed 5 times in that time and has a couple of 4th placed efforts to his name too. Given the nature of this race, there's some pretty average jockeys on board here. Serena Brotherton is not one that fits into that category and she should be a massive plus to Embsay Crag in a race like this. The horse is pretty uncomplicated (bar a tendency to miss the kick) and he just gallops all day, so getting him into a rhythm may be her toughest task here. Her record is top notch though and she's got so much experience, having had 266 rides on the flat in a riding career that goes back to 1994. From those rides, Serena has a wonderful 15% strike-rate after 41 winners, 38 seconds and 17 thirds. She also shows a 27% ROI (+£70 LSP) and is clearly a jockey to keep on the right side of in these contests. She's also had 3 winners and a second from her last 5 rides, so confidence should be sky-high to say the least. Back to the horse - Embsay Crag has plenty of form that would entitle him to get involved here, especially a 5l second to Dangerous Midge over 1m 2f at Doncaster. That horse has won G3 & G1 events since and is currently rated 122. Whilst he obviously improved out of all recognition (won off 88 that day), my selection is now rated 2lbs lower than that outing and would of got closer than 5 lengths with some luck in running. It was a year ago though, but Kate Walton's 5 year old has come back showing plenty of his old gusto and should be coming to hand now after 3 runs this season (valid excuses last twice). His second (off 1lb lower) behind Arlequin on seasonal debut is another piece worthwhile form that would see him go close here, all going well. Easy tracks seem to suit Embsay Crag perfectly and he's also posted his career best effort at this track when finishing third of 19 over 1m 2f. He had a worse draw that day than he does today and also blew the start, so that was a brilliant effort to fly home late in a similarly competitive contest. He also gets on well with claimers and seems to be very uncomplicated. He handles all ground and despite having done his winning over 7f and 1m 2f, he stays this trip comfortably and remains fairly unexposed over it. His form in C3 contests reads ; 1-4-2-2, which is very good and he's only 3lbs higher than that win at this level. He also has a good cruising speed and if he didn't miss the break so often, I'd imagine he'd have another few victories on the slate. Plenty of form can't be taken too literally in these contests, but he's got one of the best women jockeys on board, has conditions to suit and also gets a solid pace to run at (loads of front-runners). If Embsay Crag could just break well and settle in behind the leaders, I'd consider him to be worthy of a 8-10/1 price-tag. He's got a plum draw in stall 3 and comes here on the back of some good efforts. The course was against him last time out and he still ran a game 4th. He had a terrible draw over this C&D before that and showed a good attitude to plug on despite never having a chance given how things went and on seasonal debut, he ran into traffic problems when second behind Arlequin. His attitude is faultless and with a bit of luck, he could outrun his price easily. The trainer/jockey combination reads 1 win from 1 runner and the only worry I have is the trainers lack of flat winners. I don't really know a whole lot about her but this is her best flat horse and I'd imagine this contest has been targeted as a winnable one. Medium each-way stakes and bar disaster, I think one of the places is achievable at the very least. He's a huge price, and wrongfully so in my opinion. Hopefully he'll go well.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 2:40 York - Cheers For Thea - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (PaddyPower) Tough race to solve and not one for big stakes, but Cheers For Thea could be a lively contender for the in-form Tim Easterby yard. This 6 year old grey mare proved most progressive throughout 2010, having opened her turf account off a mark of 60 before ending the year rated 87, which is outstanding progression. The way she travels through her races when on a going day is most impressive and if she can do the same here on the back of the likely strong pace, I fail to see how she can't get involved. The track should be ideal and she comes here on the back of an eye-catching 4 length eight of 20 over 7 furlongs at Doncaster. The return to just shy of 9 furlongs should suit and the only worry is the draw in stall 15, which is far from ideal. However, 14/1 looks a nice price about her and with a bit of luck, she'll be involved. Tim Easterby had a fairly slow time of it in May, but much like myself, June brought pastures new. In the past fortnight, he's had 13 winners from his 73 runners, including 2 from 5 here yesterday (12/1 & 25/1). He's a wonderful trainer and I'm always wary of opposing him, as when his animals are let go at full tilt, they rarely disappoint. With the yard in such good form and Cheers For Thea showing much more than she did on her seasonal debut, there may be no better time to catch her. Stepping her back to 7f on a flat, galloping track didn't work but at least it showed that she's in fine fettle. A couple of runs before that, at the beginning of May, she ran a very good ½ length second to Just Bond at Beverley. That horse has since finished a fine second from a 4lb higher mark, only finding a progressive sort too good. The form looks fairly solid and the race itself showed the well being of Easterby's mare, as she cruised into contention before getting out witted in the final furlong. With sterner handling she would of won that race and David Allan is back on board now. He gets on well with this animal and has 4 wins and 7 places from 22 rides. He's also riding exceptionally well of late, having had 6 winners and 5 places from his last 20 rides. Allan has a good record her in recent years and should be able to get his mount ideally positioned despite a poor draw. This will be no easy race for Cheers For Thea and she's yet to win at C2 level (only had 2 tries), but everything's set up for a decent run and I'm quite hopeful that she'll turn up. Her recent profile suggests that her progression may not have ended yet and defying a mark of 87 is not an impossible task. Of the rest, Tiger Reigns would be of massive interest at 20/1 if some rain came. The ground, as it stands, seems to be much too lively for him and for that reason he's too risky. Leviathan has a similar profile and may need a slower surface to be at his best, whilst Kay Gee Be isn't one I'd like to take on under another 5lb weight rise. He should go well though but I'd rather avoid at the prices. Tim Easterby's Cheers For Thea looks to have decent claims if improving for the step up in trip and I see no reason why she can't grab one of the four places at least. Small each-way bet at odds that are slightly too big.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 3:15 York - Swiss Dream - 1.50pts e/w @ 10/1 (PaddyPower) A change of tactics seems to have brought out the best in Swiss Dream, who's a horse that David Elsworth had previously had high hopes for. She was a decent juvenile who was deemed worth of being an 11/2 shot (very well backed) in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot last year. She disappointed by coming tenth in the end and only ran one of decent race in the following few outings. However, after a decent pipe-opener on the all-weather, she showed a lot more when finishing third in a 19 runner handicap at this track 4 weeks ago. She showed bright speed to lead the field down the center of the track and only faltered in the closing stages when her effort petered out. It was a cracking run though and gave a lot of hope for optimism. Next time out, connections pursued with prominent tactics as Swiss Dream, in the hands of Keiren Fallon, set out to make all over 6f at Newmarket. That represented a step up in trip and she took it in her stride, showing bright speed throughout before repelling all challengers once they met the rising ground. She ran out a near 3 length winner in the end and was going on at the finish, so a step up to 7f may suit in time. For now, despite having an 8lb rise in the weights to contend with, I think she can continue her progression and go close in a race that her trainer won a couple of years ago with her half-sister, Swiss Diva (later an easy 2-time Group 3 winner). My only worry is the track, even though she's run well here. If she can dominate, I'm just afraid that she'll be worn down in the closing stages as she didn't fully assert at Newmarket until they reached the rising ground. However, 10/1 doesn't look a half-bad price and I can only see that shortening. The ground is perfect for her and she's drawn OK in stall 15. David Elsworth seems to have his yard in fine fettle this year and he's booked Nicky Mackay for the ride, which is interesting enough (although there mightn't of been anyone else!). Mackay has only ridden for this yard on a handful of occasions but has a very good record around York. This is his only ride of the day before heading off to Leicester for another one in the evening. He seems to be riding well this year and does well with front-runners, so hopefully he'll prove a plus to Swiss Dream. This is another extremely tough race to call and there's so many dangers, notably Elusive Prince from the David Barron stable. He looks like an out-and-out galloper with a lot more to give but I think it may pay to be drawn high here, so a sit in stall 1 may not be ideal. Dozy Joe looks like a lively outsider and Madany would be up for consideration if it wasn't for the jockey who's on board. I just don't rate him at all. I think that Swiss Dream has the perfect profile to go well here and if she can show that resolution that helped her land the spoils last time out, she should go well. Small each-way bet again and 4 places being paid.

[Lars]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers.

Backed this one again. 2pts e/w total. 2:10 York - Embsay Crag - 2pts e/w @ 28/1 (WillHill)

:eyes Ridiculous

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. :puke Could of won that given how it went.

[RussP]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Only you could back a faller in a flat race:lol. Seriously Monte, that's bloody unlucky. Hope you get your revenge on the bookies with your other bets:hope. Pleased to see the jockey get up none the worse for the fall:clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. It's awful mate, pure bad luck. Delighted she's OK though and there'll be other days for me. Really fancied EC though and thought he'd run a cracker. Well-backed too. Might of been handier if he missed the break like usual. :lol

[stewartd14]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers.

Backed this one again. 2pts e/w total. 2:10 York - Embsay Crag - 2pts e/w @ 28/1 (WillHill)

Poor selection. Shocked you didn't see foresee the fall. Seriously though, if it's any consolation, the same opportunity will be there next time - he's ready to win this one :)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. I hate you Stew. :p Hopefully he's ready soon, but I thought today was his big day. :sad

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Embsay Crag was subject to strong support and eventually went off at 9/1 (would of been a R4). However, having broke well to get a nice position along the rail, he stumbled and unshipped his rider just after a furlong. Thankfully she was alright and I'll be backing this horse again. The way the race panned out would of suited my selection and I've no doubt that he'd of been involved in the finish if he got a bit of luck. I said anything can happen in these amateur rider handicaps, and that was spot on! Not to be, but that was awfully unlucky. A sedate gallop didn't help Cheers For Thea and having taken an age to find her stride, she only ran on past beaten horses in the closing stages. Disappointing effort but she's got valid excuses and will be interesting again in a lesser contest. Swiss Dream showed bright speed to race handily and found plenty for pressure towards the end. However, he could only manage 4th place in the end but returned the each-way part of the bet (at 11/1). That was an effort equally as good as when landing the spoils at Newmarket and she's a filly worth following. A stiffer test may bring out even more improvement. -3.38pts on the day. Oh the joys! 2:15 Doncaster - Tillietudlem - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365) Jim Goldie could hold all the aces in this Apprentice Handicap with Tillietudlem making his first appearance since disappointing over hurdles in November. Fitness will have to be taken on trust but the Goldie yard are flying of late and make a 500 mile round trip to run this lively 5 year old, who was most progressive last season. He won no fewer than 5 flat handicaps in a 10 race season and progressed from a 45 rated animal to peak at 69. Along the way, he picked up this contest last year when racing off 53, a mark 10lbs lower than what he faces today. He's also won on his only other outing at Doncaster (off 1lb higher mark) and this course clearly suits him perfectly. Conditions today are perfect, bar rain, as genuinely fast ground is his preference and he gets that today. The 1m 6f trip is also spot on, as his record around this trip is 2 wins and a third from just 3 runs. Everything points to a big run if he can just overcome the lack of any race fitness. Tillietudlem defied a similar layoff to put in a career-best effort over hurdles when reappearing last season and on that basis alone, I think he should be readied for this without problem. His prominent racing style is handy around here and with a few potential pacesetters in opposition, he should get his favoured tracking position in behind the leaders. Luke McNiff takes the ride and he's only a recent recruit to the flat racing game (Barron gives him rides, so he can't be too bad), although he has plenty of experience from over 400 rides over jumps. McNiff has only ridden 29 flat horses to date but has managed to get a couple of winners in that time. It's clear as day that the further he races over, the better his horses do. Despite only having had 6 rides between 11 and 12 furlongs, both of his winners have come over that distance, including a couple of seconds. It could be all just a coincidence but I quite like when the stats favour certain aspects of the game and these suggest that he's a jockey for the longer trips. He also takes off a handy 5lbs and leaves the horse with a low riding weight of 8st 12lbs. Tillietudlem is a fairly uncomplicated ride who gets on well with inexperienced claimers, so McNiff should have no problems in that regard. Getting him a nice position should be the toughest part of the ride, as this horse will just gallop all the way to the line, whether he's quick enough to win is another matter but the odds are too big. Jim Goldie has had 6 winners and a number of places from his last 23 runners (26% SR, +£35 LSP). He's clearly a man in form and makes this long journey with just one runner (has a good course record too). I get the impression that Tillietudlem isn't tough to get ready and may be the type that will always go well fresh (well-backed on racing debut, and on other occasions when fresh). He seemed off the boil on his final few starts of 2010 (so freshening him up could help big time), and despite looking fairly exposed, he's only 5 years old and there may be more to come. I think 10's are about twice as big as he should be and there's very little in the field to fear. If he's readied first time up, he'll go and win the race for the second successive year, with a bit of luck of course.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 3:25 Doncaster - Lutine Bell - 1.50pts e/w @ 11/1 (WillHill) Competitive 6 furlong handicap in the offing here and Mike Murphy's Lutine Bell looks sure to play a part if building on an impressive run last time out. With 20 runners set to go to post, this will be no easy task, but this former Mark Prescott trained runner should have everything run to suit and looks a value call at 11/1. This 4 year old Wokingham entrant put in a performance that wouldn't be too far off a career best running when finishing 4th of 13 in a race where everything went wrong for him (at a track that's not ideal). He blew the start, giving away a lot of ground and still managed to run on exceptionally well to finish a length behind the winner, all despite a moderate gallop for the distance. Given that he wouldn't be one to possess a rapid, instant turn of foot, it was more than encouraging and with pace galore in this field, things could fall into place at the track where he ran a brilliant race on seasonal debut. Not many horses leave the Prescott yard and continue improvement, but Lutine Bell has done exactly that. Mike Murphy says he has the size and scope to go on to be a very good grass sprinter, so with 3 recent runs runs under his belt, he could be nearing top gear. His 6 length demolition job on debut for this yard at Wolverhampton was very impressive, and despite being 12lbs higher now, I'm convinced this horse could go on to be rated a fair bit higher, once he matures into the horse his trainer is convinced he'll be. The ground is ideal, the trip is what I feel is his optimum and the track should play to his strengths, so there's no reason why he won't go well. The only worry would be whether he's kept for another day or not, especially as this race is worth a measly £4k. Mike Murphy has his string in good order and makes a 260 mile round trip to a track he rarely visits (only runner too). Martin Lane is on board for the first time and he boasts a cracking record when booked by Murphy. The pair have had 5 winners and 11 places from just 24 runners, which is a 21% strike-rate showing a 219% ROI (+£52 LSP). Lane only has 2 rides today and the other wouldn't have much hope at all. The only worrying stat is that he's 0 from 27 at Doncaster, although 4 of those have finished in 2nd place. He's a very good jockey on his day and hopefully breaks his Doncaster hoodoo here. Lutine Bell should have no issues today and if he get a nice position, I think a place is achievable at the very least. There are dangers galore, including a few similarly progressive types but Mike Murphy's charge could prove to be the best of them. 11/1 is much too big given that he was a length ahead of Dungannon last time out, and that one is 8/1 despite needing slower ground. Mon Brav would be who I'd be wary of, especially as he looks to have found his feet again since joining the in-form Brian Ellison stable. His last run is a write off because the saddle slipped and he could be worth a small bet at 16/1 also. Regardless, I'll stick with the Mike Murphy/Martin Lane combination to come up trumps again with a small/medium each-way bet.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Tillietudlem was very well supported and eventually went off at 11/2. However, he was slowly away and had to be bustled along early, showing little enthusiasm at all. It's quite possible that he wasn't happy racing towards the rear of the field and the slow break put paid to his chances. He looked as fit as anything beforehand and generally looked well, so a lot more was expected I'd imagine. Disappointing but still one to consider next time out. Lutine Bell loomed large in the closing stages of his race, hitting 2/1 in the process. His effort petered out and it's possible that the rain softened ground wasn't entirely to his liking. He looked nailed on for a place when running on but having proved one paced in the final furlong, he could only managed 6th place, less than ½ a length out of the places. This horse will win a big handicap this season, but it'll probably be on a livelier surface. Good effort though. -7.00pts on the day. Depressing enough but hopefully Royal Ascot will change the recent luck, which has been atrocious (numerous seconds and so on). 3:15 Carlisle - Camache Queen - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (PaddyPower) Decent fillies handicap in the offing here and I'm quite surprised than Camache Queen is available at 16/1. Whilst her most recent effort was hardly inspiring, this speedily bred filly didn't perform too badly in a much hotter contest. That was over 7f at Newbury, a track that I don't think proved to be ideal, plus she pulled hard and hung right throughout. Despite hitting a flat spot when the tempo lifted, she began to run on late in the day and I think the stiffer Carlisle track could be more to her liking, provided she handles the slower ground. Denis Coakley is her trainer and so far in 2011, he's had a very good time of it, having had 6 winners from just 27 runners. That's good going considering he's got plenty of modest animals in his yard and he now sees fit to travel nearly 600 miles to run this filly at a track where he's only come to once - back in 2005. The booking of Joe Fanning, who rides this track exceptionally well (13% SR, 14% ROI), is another positive and I fail to see how this animal isn't a lot shorter. Camache Queen was expected to be a decent 2 year old and was well-supported on debut (June '10) when turning out over 6f at Kempton. She hit a flat spot before running on again and seemed as if she'd get further in time, although the race wasn't run to suit anyways. Connections didn't have her out again for 3 months and this time she ran at Lingfield (on fast turf), over the same trip. It was a similar story as she just made moderate late headway having failed to go the pace early on. It wasn't a bad effort though and she built on that again when landing the spoils over 6f at Wolverhampton. It was in a race run at a good pace and she came with a late, surging run to get up on the line, once again shaping as if she'd get further. That was a maiden and entitled her to run in a handicap off a mark of 75 when reappearing as a 3 year old in April. That outing was at Windsor on fast ground and she nearly made a winning return to the track, just failing by ½ a length in a race that has worked out fairly well. The pace was slow and once again she got outpaced & lost position before running on strongly. A step up in trip looked needed (recurring trend!) and having failed to give her running last time out (on first try at 7f), I expect that the second crack at this trip could pay dividends. The track should suit and the only worry is the ground, which may not pose too much of a problem based on breeding. Most of the main contenders have fast ground form too and many aren't as open to as much progression as Camache Queen is, so I'll happily take a chance on her. The stable's in good form this year, the jockey booking is solid, the track should be suitable and the race is likely to be run to suit. There's bound to be plenty more to come from this filly and she's still very lightly raced, so a mark of 76 should not be beyond her. Spinatrix would be the other who interested me at a price and Ollie Pears' Jade should also go well if handling the ground, but looks much too short at 4/1. I'll side with Denis Coaxley's 600 mile round trip being a worthwhile one. Medium each-way stakes, as I don't think this one should be any bigger than 6/1. She had excuses last time out and the trip offers hope of a lot more improvement, so her chance of grabbing a place should be decent. Hopefully she will.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Two more, back with reasoning at some stage during the day, absolutely wrecked. 7:00 Windsor - Madonna Dell'Orto - 2pts @ 7/1 (WillHill) 7:30 Windsor - Poppanan - 1.50pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Camache Queen placed. Well-backed to eventually go off at 6/1 (10p R4 for me). Madonna Dell'Orto is a non-runner. 7:30 Windsor - Poppanan - 1.50pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365) This looks to be a fairly competitive sprint handicap but Simon Dow's Poppanan could be thrown in here if appreciating the slight cut in the ground as expected. He's still 5lbs above his last winning mark but has plenty of form to suggest that a mark of 77 is not beyond him, especially as he returns to Windsor, a track where he gained a ready success on soft ground last year (May), albeit from a much lower mark. He's been knocking on the door since and based on his pair of turf runs this year, a return to winning isn't too far away for this quite unexposed sprinter. He's only had 10 outings on the turf (3 wins, 2 places) and he's a 5 year old, so he's by no means over-raced. I think there's quite a lot more to come from this fellow and he'll eventually be up to defying marks in the 80's, on soft ground most likely. Poppanan made his seasonal debut (on turf) over 6f at Doncaster in a very hot 19-runner 0-80 handicap on decent ground. He finished a very respectable 4th place, having held every chance but failed to find enough in the final furlong. That was a good effort though and he was expected to build upon it next time out. However, connections dropped him in trip and he was slowly away, which wasn't one bit ideal. The race panned out in a way that meant very little got into it from the rear and Poppanan, the well backed 9/2 favourite, never landed a blow. He did stay on well in the closing stage though and the return to 6f should help, along with the return to a slower surface (ground was quite quick that day and it was a much tougher race than this). Poppanan seems to handle all surfaces pretty well but the softer it is, the better it is for this animal. His two best career efforts have come on softer ground and today's GS (Good in places) should suffice. A lack of out-and-out pace from the front would be my only worry for my selection, but the 10/1 I took (6's now) made it a risk worth taking. He's got the capable 3lb claimer Adam Beschizza on board and despite the yard not being in the best of form lately, the early money is a positive. The horse should really make the frame if he gets luck in running and I thought he shouldn't of been 10/1 at the time. I'd also expect that he could go off around 4/1, as the favourite is extremely vulnerable in my opinion and surely won't hold up at his 3/1-7/2 price-tag (seems based on the booking of Ryan Moore). He's got a chance mind but Simon Dow's charge looks a very lively contender here. Small/medium each-way stakes.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Camache Queen was well-backed (16's > 6/1) in an attempt to take advantage of a step up in trip at the second time of asking. The lightly-raced filly ran a very good race to land place money by finishing in third place, just a few lengths off the pace. She held every chance in the closing stages but the rain softened ground blunted her finishing kick. She had also taken a pull early on and didn't look overly happy, so I think this effort can be marked up. A stiff 7f on quicker ground could be ideal and she's one to keep an eye on. I stuck her into the notebook anyways. Poppanan broke down in his race and was fatally injured. Terrible to see that happen to any horse. RIP. +2.20pts on the day, including a 10p R4 for the first runner. 2:30 Ascot - Canford Cliffs - 5pts @ 6/4 (WillHill) I've been saying that Canford Cliffs is the best miler around for a long time and now that he faces his stiffest task to date, I finally get a chance to put my money where my mouth is in a race that should really test his abilities. Realistically, there is one challenger and one challenger alone (I hope anyway!) - the wonder-mare, Goldikova. I still think Richard Hannon's 4 year old is the superior animal and hopefully this will be proved today. He's all class, has a wonderful turn of foot, a brilliant attitude (now that he knows how to settle) and has a very impressive outing behind him when not fully wound up. Everything will be geared into having him spot on for today and given his recent performance in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury, he's come back better than ever. It's easy to say that he beat very little that day and it's also a fairly true statement, but the manner in which he did so was so impressive considering he looked as if he was in need of the run. He traveled like a dream throughout and once popped the question, he showed a very likable attitude to pass the very tough and game Italian raider, Worthadd. That horse was a massive unknown quantity but he's since won a G2 in Italy in an impressive manner, although what he beat is questionable. He still couldn't live with Canford Cliffs, who should improve ten-fold (exaggeration, will improve a lot though) for the run like he did last year when overturned in the Greenham Stakes at the same track (Newbury), although he shouldn't of lost that race (threw it away by hanging). The horse has improved so much since switching to hold-up tactics and learning to settle over this trip, so plenty of his earlier disappointments shouldn't be held against him. I'm convinced that he'd of won last years 2,000 Guineas if he settled on what was his first try at a mile, but he didn't and finished third in the end. It was still a cracking effort mind. Canford Cliffs is also unbeaten at Ascot, having won on both of his outings at the Royal meeting. The first was a 6 length demolition job in the G2 Coventry Stakes (as a 2 year old) on only his second racecourse outing, where he made all of the running and sauntered clear despite taking a fierce pull early on. That was the race which put him up among the elite and despite failing to win on his next three outings, it was clear as day that this animal had the potential to reach the top once he matured, which he duly did. He went on to land the Irish 2,000 Guineas (after finishing third in the English equivalent) by a fairly easy 3 lengths having settled well in mid-div, traveled well and showed that supreme turn of foot. He probably beat nothing too special, but visually, it was an amazing effort from a horse clearly going places. Next time out, on his second and last Ascot appearance, Canford Cliffs faced his toughest challenge to date, as he faced off against numerous Group winning animals, including former conquerors Makfi (2,000 Guineas winner) and Dick Turpin (Greenham and 2,000 Guineas second). Once again, the Richard Hannon trained colt reigned supreme, showing a great attitude to make up plenty of ground under a typical waiting ride from jockey Richard Hughes. He also showed the perfect combination of a turf of foot, travelling speed, guts and determination to land the spoils from his stablemate who was in the capable hands of Ryan Moore and had first run. Makfi ran a shocker though, so it's a pity that they didn't get to have another proper duel. Canford Cliffs then went on to score his most impressive victory to date when making a mockery of Rip Van Winkle in the Sussex Stakes. Whilst you never know what you'll get with Aidan O'Brien's in-mate, he was on a going day at Goodwood and had first run by a fair distance, yet still couldn't live with the ever-improving Canford Cliffs, who took over the running 50 yards from home before being immediately eased down. It was a performance of pure class from the then 3 year old who was tackling his elders for the first time. He's reported to have failed to handle the Goodwood track too well, so this has to go down as a phenomenal effort given how he disposed of a horse who's pure class on his day. Goldikova will be a completely different kettle of fish, as saying she's "pure class" would be an understatement. The now 6 year old mare is a 13-time Group 1 winning animal who has nearly £4m in career earnings so far. She comes here as the defending champion, having got the better of another Richard Hannon trained animal in the shape of Paco Boy. However, that's the piece of form that I think could leave her vulnerable here, as there's no doubting that Hannon comes here today with an even better challenger for the great mare. She barely beat that horse last year and he was very unlucky in running, although I think she'd of won anyways. Hannon says that Canford Cliffs is the better of the two animals and the best that he's every trained, which is high praise indeed. I think he has everything in favour here and with the ground likely to dry up in time for the race, the previous worries about ground conditions can be cast aside (hopefully!). The pace should be strong as Goldikova has a pacemaker in the field, although I wouldn't worry anyways, as if Hughes can get his charge settled as he has done of late, it doesn't matter how it's run. He's got the cruising speed and turn of foot to be at his best regardless of a quick or steady tempo, so the only thing that matters is his temperament on the day and that hasn't let him down for a long time. Canford Cliffs now bids for a fifth consecutive Group 1 victory at a track where he's unbeaten and I fail to see how he can't add to his already impressive tally. He's an amazing horse and one of the best around, so hopefully he'll confirm his placing at the top by beating one of the best mares to ever see a racecourse. 6/4 is a wonderful price as I think this is effectively a match-bet between the leading duo on the market and I feel my selection should be an odds-on shot. That may be my blinkers speaking, but I think he can do it and like I did last year, I'm having my first maximum bet of the season on the wonderful Canford Cliffs. Hopefully he'll do the job and fingers crossed that the heavens don't open!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Leaving the Kings Stand and SJP races well alone. Can't get my head around the first one and Frankel should dominate the other. 4:25 Ascot - Barolo Top - 0.50pts e/w @ 66/1 (VC) This is probably a waste of cash but I quite liked the way Barolo Top shaped on his opening couple of starts and he could be capable of running into a place if building on them. This Tom Dascombe trained 2 year old cost a nice few quid, having went of €70,000 as a foal before fetching 50,000gns as a yearling. Whilst he's up against it on what he's shown to date, connections seem to think he's a very useful type and one who will improve significantly, especially after he got off to winning ways at the second attempt. That race was over this 6f trip at Haydock on good-to-soft ground and whilst the race had little, if any, strength in depth, the leading duo look like very nice animals. Barolo Top was under the pump from the off and looked likely to get turned over at evens when he began running around under pressure, but once Richard Kingscote galvanized him, he won going away from the useful looking Wolf Spirit. It's not a performance that suggests that he'll be overly competitive here, but there's no questioning his useful attitude and potential to improve, so I feel he's worthy of taking a chance on. First time up, in a much more useful contest, Barolo Top faced ten other rivals in a good ground maiden at York, over the same trip. That track wouldn't be overly suitable in my opinion and he failed to go the early gallop. Richard Kingscote had him scrubbed along early but once he found his stride, he made some decent late headway to run on into fifth place. He was too green to do himself justice and as his next race, it's not form to give him any hope in a contest like this, but it was full of promise and he improved for it. I think he's got plenty more scope to improve and Tom Dascombe said after his Haydock win that he "thought he would win on the bridle" before going on to say that "maybe I gave him too long after his first run; I hope that has made a man of him". That was less than a week ago, so hopefully Barolo Top will be a lot sharper for the outing. I can't say a whole pile about this race, as it's the ultimate head-scratcher, but this fellow could be a whole lot better than what he's shown to date. 66/1 is worth a tiny each-way bet, even though this race hasn't had a double-figure priced winner since 2001. Of the rest, they could all be dangers! I still think it's worth siding with Dascombe's runner, even though he probably lacks the potential class of many, but he's shown enough to warrant being shorter than this price.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Re-hash of my old write up. Too lazy! 5:00 Ascot - Plymouth Rock - 2pts e/w @ 15/1 (WillHill) An exciting race in prospect over a marathon 2m 4f trip, and I fancy Jeremy Noseda's relatively unexposed Plymouth Rock. I backed him each-way at 66's in the Cesarewitch back in October, where he finished a very unlucky in-running 3rd place, having been repeatedly denied a run through in the massive 32 runner field. He was flying at the death (despite taking a very keen hold early) but the leading duo had flown and there was nothing that could change that. However, it was a clear indication of this one time St Leger entry's ability, as he had previously looked very disappointing. He cost 280,000gns (re-sold 170,000gns) as a yearling, which is testament to his beautiful breeding. He's bred to relish a true stamina test and he's entitled to be bang there come the business end of proceedings, even though he's a couple of lbs higher than his 3rd place in the Cesarewitch. Plymouth Rock, who is now 5 years old, hasn't won since making his debut as a 3 year old. However, he's still progressed from an 82 rated animal to now run off of 95, which is testament to his abilities and consistency. In his 11 runs since that win, he's finished second on 4 occasions and third on 3. He's only really run very poorly on one occasion, although he had excuses. He also comes here having had a couple of runs and should be freshened up nicely having had 6 weeks off since the Chester Cup. On seasonal debut, he contested a 1m 3f handicap on the all-weather at Kempton, and that trip is much too short for him. Although he was traveling well a few furlongs from home but just couldn't pick up, which is understandable. Overall, despite being consistent, he's obviously been disappointing, having failed as favourite on no less than 6 occasions. The application of a visor seems to have perked Plymouth Rock up and he's still unexposed in the main, and also very unexposed as a stayer, which I expect to see him excel at over the season. It just seems to take him too long to pick up when he's racing over middle distances and when he gets some luck, he'll be winning a race before too long, hopefully today. His staying-on effort in the Chester Cup was encouraging (plus he settled well for once), as that race never suited him and in hindsight, I was quite daft to think he had a hope of getting involved. Also his yard are in cracking form this year, having had 27 winners from 98 runners, which gives them a well above-average strike rate of 28%. They're 5 from 15 in the past fortnight (plus a further 8 placed horses) and clearly going good guns. I'm a massive fan of Jeremy Noseda, who can certainly train to an exceptional standard. He's on track to have another good season and he should pick up many a nice prize throughout the year. The £30k for the winner here would be a some consolation for a horse who has proved most expensive to follow and connections are due their day in the sun with him, so hopefully Plymouth Rock will run to the ability that I feel he has, because if he does, he'll go pretty close. Frankie Dettori takes the reins for the first time and he's got an excellent record for this yard, having had 57 winners from 199 rides for them (massive 29% strike-rate). Noseda only ever had one runner in this race, back in '04, and that came second. I think he can go one better with this frustrating horse, assuming he gets some luck in running. 15/1 (odd price!) looks a cracking price and I'll play medium each-way stakes. Everything's in the horses favour here, although it's a tough contest with many a danger, but the price makes the risk worth it. The ground's ideal, the pace should be strong, the big field will help him settle and the track is right up his street. Fingers crossed that Dettori rides him out to the line.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 5:35 Ascot - Arnold Lane - 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (WillHill) Another race where I'm virtually throwing a dart at the page but Arnold Lane looks seriously overpriced in a race that has thrown up some big shocks in recent years. I'm keeping this one fairly brief because I'm very tired but this Mick Channon trained 2 year old may improve for the switch to slower ground. He won his maiden over 5f in good fashion at Leicester, in which he ran on very well despite missing the kick and shaping as if he hated the ground. He'll probably need a step up in trip to be seen at his best but with the pace likely to be fast and furious, I think this fellow has the speed to keep up and the finishing kick to make the frame, assuming he gets some luck in running. His second and last run wasn't void of promise either, even though Arnold Lane could only manage to finish 4th of 5 at Beverley. That was a hot race though and he rallied under pressure to come within 1½ lengths of the winner despite looking outpaced at one stage. The ground was fast that day too and he didn't look overly content on it, so the argument for a slower surface looks even better. There's a possibility that he may be pulled out as Mick Channon said he's got a bruised foot, so they might hold off until the Norfolk Stakes on Thursday. That race is a G2 and this fellow holds many decent entries and is obviously highly thought off. Channon also described him as "a potentially class act" and if he lives up to that billing, he's sure to have a chance at least. The in-form Jamie Spencer takes over from Sam Hitchcott and that's a plus too. Hopefully he'll go well but it's another small each-way bet in a race that's tough to call. He shouldn't be this price though and 4 places are being paid.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. I couldn't like Canford Cliffs any more if I tried. He's absolutely amazing and proved today what a wonderful specimen he really is. He showed speed, a wonderful turn of foot and brilliant determination to overturn the brilliant Goldikova, a horse who I'm convinced is inferior to him regardless of what people say. It took Richard Hannon's colt a little while to get past her as she's tough, game and extremely talented, but he completed the job in a great fashion, winning a shade cosily in the end. First maximum win bet of the year landed and although the price wasn't great, the horse surely was. Delighted with that performance and I think he can be even better. Barolo Top showed decent speed in the early stages of his race but got outpaced at halfway and never figured in the finish. He'll be a good horse for nurseries later on in the season and into the notebook he goes. Plymouth Rock was disappointing in the extreme having been backed from 16's into 8/1. He never got involved and I think a combination of things went against him. There's a big staying handicap in him though and I'm not giving up just yet, even though he's cost me a small fortune as I've backed him numerous times. +2.50pts on the day. Modest profit, but it's better than losing it all. 2:30 Ascot - Strong Suit - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (StanJames) I rarely take prices with firms that don't offer BOG, but the 14's available for Strong Suit are surely much too big and won't last, even though this horse proved most disappointing on his 3 year old debut. However, on 2 year old form, he should hold every chance of hitting the frame despite carrying a 5lb penalty for having succeeded in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at this meeting last year. The Richard Hannon trained colt has always been held in high regard and after defeating Neebras (ran well yesterday) easily on debut over 6f at Newbury, this speedy son of Rahy tackled Group company on only his second career outing. He put in a stunning performance to justify favouritism in a competitive heat and showed his raw talent to get up an defeat Elzaam by a nose despite suffering plenty of bad luck in running. The horse he beat that day disappointed on his 3 year old debut too, but has since come out and won a Listed contest by an easy 6 lengths and is as short as 12/1 for the Golden Jubilee Stakes on Saturday. Strong Suit disappointed in his following couple of runs as a 2 year old but didn't run too badly regardless. It's his only run so far of 2011 which is the basis of his 14/1 price-tag and given the amount of things that seemed to go wrong for him on that day, I feel it's best to forgive him that run and hope that his class returns as I expect it to. 2 year old form doesn't always follow on into the next season and whilst this fellow would give the impression that he hasn't trained on, connections believe that a recent (after the Greenham) wind operation could be the answer to their prayers (and mine!). Strong Suit was a well-backed 9/2 shot when aiming to overturn Frankel in the Group 3 contest at Newbury. However, having acted up in the prelims and taken a fierce hold early on, he never had a chance of getting involved. He obviously had problems with his wind and had a tongue-tie on, but now that's off and he comes here to the scene of his greatest performance on the back of a wind-op, so if everything goes to plan and he bounces back to his usual abilities, 14/1 could potentially look a very stupid price. There's every chance he mightn't of trained on and doesn't retain his old abilities, but he has excuses for that poor effort last time out and should come back as a better animal. At his best, I don't think Strong Suit has too much to fear here. Codemaster looks useful but he's priced accordingly at 3/1 and wouldn't be for me. Oracle only looked up to Group level last time out and may be flattered by that run, whilst I don't think Fury is all he's cracked up to be by connections, despite his obvious talent. The French horse could be anything but I'm not taking 9/2 about him, not a hope. Western Aristocrat looked a lovely, big type in the paddock when I was at Haydock, but he's never worthy of being half the price of my selection, regardless of his excellent connections. He could and should go well, but I think Strong Suit is seriously underestimated and shouldn't be much bigger than 6/1. He's got the talent, he's got the speed, he's got the scope to improve over this trip, he handles this track and he's likely to get his ground today. I fail to see how he won't go well, unless he's completely lost it. Medium each-way stakes at a price too good to turn down. Fingers crossed that he bounces back, because if he does, things could get rather interesting!

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Great use of the max bet on Canford Cliffs mate. Great feeling when you save up the big bets and they pay off when you make them. Outstanding thread Monte, keep it up :notworthy

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers.

Great use of the max bet on Canford Cliffs mate. Great feeling when you save up the big bets and they pay off when you make them. Outstanding thread Monte' date=' keep it up :notworthy[/quote'] Cheers mate, much appreciated. It was a bet out of respect for the horse more so than one that I wanted to make a nice wedge off (although I completely expected victory), if you get me! I've been backing him since the Guineas where I was on e/w at 14's and I just think he's different gravy (should of won the Guineas too!). He's got everything that I love about thoroughbred's and hopefully he'll go on to destroy Frankel. :hope Best of luck tomorrow mate, should be a good days racing. :clap

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Yeah same to you mate. Looks another quality day on paper. Thinking of adding Shumops to my thread for tomorrow, will consider overnight. I actually think I'd want Frankel to win that match u, but that's for another day!! Both horses I really enjoy watching though and they've served me well thus far

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Sure does, that Sham-something one should go well but not keen about taking that price about a horse who has only run once. Best of luck though. ------------------------------------------------------------- 3:05 Ascot - Field Day - 1.50pts @ 25/1 (WillHill) I really need to quit getting tempted by big priced runners but Brian Meehan's Field Day is a lot better than she's shown last twice and can overturn some of her recent form with the other runners here. This 4 year old filly was a more than useful 3 year old, landing a 4-runner handicap before gaining a most impressive victory in a C&D Listed contest, in which she won by an easy 3 lengths. A couple of her opposition that day were well behind, including I'm A Dreamer who's a 9/2 shot here, although she was hampered but still wouldn't of won. David Simcock's runner has obviously improved since, but the way in which Field Day landed the spoils that day suggested she was potentially up to contesting some very useful Group races, and she duly did. She went on to finish a close up 2nd on her next outing, which was a soft ground Group 3 contest at Deauville. Next time out, she tackled Group 1 company in France again, this time she was a more than useful 4th of 11 in the Prix De L'Opera on very soft ground (when tackling older mares for the first time). Given the way she ran on ground much softer than ideal, I feel that performance can be marked up significantly despite being 8 lengths behind the leading duo, who were some way clear of the rest. The main problem is the recent form of Field Day, as she's posted a couple of fairly disappointing efforts on her only starts this year. However, she could of been expected to come on for the first of those runs, which was over 1m 1f at Newmarket on very lively ground. Connections seemed to get stuck in as she went off a well-backed 5/1 co-favourite of 4, but never got into the race. She ran on well to grab 4th place in the closing stages but never had a chance of landing the spoils (took a fierce hold for a long time, possible excuse), finishing 8 lengths behind the impressive I'm A Dreamer in the process. I'm hopeful that the form can be turned around as this filly seems to take a while to come to hand and may improve for the recent outings. The second of those runs was a Group 2 at York over 1m 2f, in which the pace was very, very slow. This didn't suit Field Day at all and she pulled hard for most of the race. When the pace lifted, she had no answer and was allowed to come home in her own time, being spared a hard race in the process. She's got form to turn around with the 2nd placed Sajjhaa from that race but given how things panned out, the form is pretty worthless anyways. The pace isn't assured here either, but the step back to a mile is bound to suit, along with the return to the scene of her greatest win. Brian Meehan's yard were also in shocking form at the time of this filly's defeats and they're going a lot better now, having had 5 winners and plenty of placed efforts from their last 37 runners. Ryan Moore is booked and he's got a cracking 19% SR for this yard (93 runners, 18 winners, 20 places), including a 42% ROI. Moore will be capable of getting the best out of Field Day and I think we'll see a much improved animal here. 25/1 is much too big and I think her realistic chances lie around the 10/1 mark, even though recent form would make that price too short. Small/medium each-way stakes and hopefully she'll go well. A return to form would give her a great chance, as she's not lost her talents just yet I'm sure and recent stable form is a plus. They also expected her progression to continue this year, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see her come right at the third attempt. The previously mentioned I'm A Dreamer is a huge worry, but too short to risk.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. The Royal Hunt Cup - 4:25 Ascot 29 runners set to go to post in this massively competitive handicap and I'm going to chance my arm with a few runners here. Keeping it fairly brief as it's a race I could write about all day and still get it very, very wrong. I'm going to concentrate on some of the younger, unexposed types who have high draws, the first of which is a previous selection from Walter Swinburn's yard, Julienas. This 8-time raced 4 year old has run well on both occasions this year, finishing 3rd on each, including a ½ length defeat in a useful 15 runner handicap at Sandown. It's clear that a stiff mile suits this fellow and although there are stiffer miles than Ascot, this test should suit. He's a game and talented performer who likes to race on the front end, so the draw in stall 24 should ensure that he'll get a nice position and hopefully avoid any in-running carnage that may ensue. His yard are in decent form and Eddie Ahern takes over from Adam Kirby. The 18/1 price-tag on offer isn't half-bad and I think he's more than capable of running a big race. The next selection is 50/1 outsider Greensward, who represents the same trainer as one of my earlier selections. Brian Meehan's 5 year old is better known for his exploits over shorter distances, but has a couple of efforts in big fields over 7f that would give cause for optimism with regards to him seeing out this trip. His only outing over 1m was over C&D but he paid for racing alongside a very strong pace and faded away quickly. However, a ride with more restraint could see him in a better light over this trip and I wouldn't be surprised to see him put in a bold bid here. His effort in a similar 30 runner handicap over 7f at Newmarket last October was encouraging, as Greensward finished a 2½ length 6th in the end, flying towards the death when meeting the rising ground. A stiff mile could bring out the best in him if they go fast and I think he's well worth a try at this trip. He'll need a lot of luck in running to be involved but has a nice sit in stall 29 and has capable 3lb claimer Louis-Philippe Beuzelin on board. He's got a riding weight of 7st 13lbs which is handy and goes on the ground too. It'll take a career-best effort to see him get involved, but with 5 places paid and odds of 50/1, he's worth taking a chance on. As I said earlier, the yards recent form is encouraging and Meehan seems to think he's capable of more progression, as he held onto him despite bringing him to the sales in the autumn. He's not a winner in waiting or anything, but could have a squeak at massive odds. Last but not least, I'm going to give one final, final, final chance to Hacienda, a Mark Johnston horse who has lost all his form (I wonder!) and gets to run off his lowest mark in a long time. I backed this 4 year old last time out when he faded to nothing at Epsom, but it's highly possible that he just didn't like the track. His only visit here was a pitiful effort in which he was second last, but had a poor draw and never got a chance to give his running. With a plum sit in stall 26 and his bright early speed, I'm expecting that he'll get a nice position either beside or behind the leaders and may just run a bit better than he did last time out. I'm sure Johnston could find much easier races for this fellow but he was previously rated 96 and has run a couple of good races this year, so at least he's capable of running well. Silvestre De Sousa takes over in the saddle and it wouldn't be the first time that Johnston's had a shock winner from one of his "out of form" animals. This is his only runner in a handicap where he's had horses run well before and he's got a good one in here, even though recent efforts would suggest otherwise. With over £60k for the winner, I'd be surprised if this horse wasn't "always trying" and hopefully he'll be capable of keeping up to his work once asked to quicken. He's got talent, goes on the ground and is exceptionally well handicapped on his best form. The track should hold no obstacles and 50/1 looks a very nice price about him, even though it'll be tough to win this race. Hopefully he'll go well. Selections - Julienas - 1.50pts e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365 - 5 places) Greensward - 0.50pts e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365 - 5 places) Hacienda - 0.50pts e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365 - 5 places)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 5:35 Ascot - Blessed Biata - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (VC) I made a ten-to-follow list at the start of the season and William Haggas' Blessed Biata was top of the pile. The following is what I said about her back in March - "The first of my 10 to follow is a William Haggas trained 3 year old filly, who certainly hasn't hit her peak of yet. I had high hopes for her after her debut run over a potentially inadequate trip and I've even higher hopes for her now, especially given her excellent run in an extremely valuable Fillies' race. I actually backed and posted Blessed Biata up that day, at odds of 50/1, which she out-ran and was very unlucky not to finish in one of the four available places, or even win (may have won with a clear run). It was in the Tattersalls Millions 2 year old Fillies' Trophy, with a prize pot of no less than £300,000 and to say she ran with credit would be understating how well she done on only her second career start. She was held-up in rear for the 7 furlong contest and proceeded to run on extremely well in the closing half mile but was denied a clear run 2 furlongs from home and then again was found to be short of room just a furlong for home, before producing an impressive late run under pressure to finish 1.75 lengths behind the winner, Masaya. However, given her late thrust and finishing position, I'm of the opinion that she'd of landed the spoils with a clear run, and won me a lot of cash! It wasn't to be but she showed a good attitude under pressure and the fact that she ran so well on truly soft ground leads me to believe that there's a lot more to come, especially when she'll embark on her 3 year old campaign, likely to be starting in the middle of April. Better ground and a step up in trip should see her show significant improvement and I was really hoping she'd be entered in the 1,000 Guineas but that hasn't happened so far, with connections eying up a charge at either the £150,000 Tattersalls Millions 3 year old Sprint over 6 furlongs or the £300,000 Tattersalls Millions 3 year old Trophy over 1m 2f, if current enteries are anything to go by. I'm not really sure she'll get the latter trip so the Sprint looks like the most likely avenue and she should be a decent price for that contest. Blessed Biata is out of an unraced dam, but she's out of the 1989 1,000 Guineas second, Kerrera, who was also blessed with buckets of speed and was very competitive at Group level over 5 & 6 furlongs, along with posessing the stamina to go a mile. Whether her grand-daughter is anywhere close to that level is yet to be seen but early signs are positive and she should make a cracking 3 year old. I'm not one who knows too much about the effects of breeding and bloodlines but Haggas' filly is closely related (half-sister) to German 2,000 Guineas winners Dupont and Pacino, both of which were untried over sprint trips but proved to be top notch milers on the big day. They were both sired by the high-class miler, Zafonic, who has sired a lot of animals to be impressive 2 year olds (early bloomers). Whilst Blessed Biata is sired by American sprinter Mr Greeley, an improver at 3 (hopefully she follows suit) and sire of 54 Stakes winners, 24 Graded/Group winners and 10 of which were victorious in G1's. She's bred to have plenty of speed but could well have enough stamina for the Guineas, so it's a bit unfortunate that she'll be swerving that, even though connections obviously know a lot more about her than me but I think she could more than hold her own if the ground came up good, seeing as she got home so well over 7 furlongs on soft going. We'll probably never know how that'd pan out but there's many winnable targets for her this year and hopefully she'll have trained on and filled out for her 3 year old campaign, before going on to land some black type. She didn't race until September of last year and had 3 runs in the space of 6 weeks, the last of which was a huge disappointment, so it's more than possible that she'll be a “backable” price first time up. I posted her up that day too, this time at 10/1 in a Listed contest over 7 furlongs at Newbury on soft. I had double my usual maximum each-way bet on her and was extremely keen on her chances, as were connections because she halved in price to go off as the 5/1 second favourite. However, she broke slowly and ran very flat, finishing an eased down 9th in the end, ultimately proving very disappointing and costing me a lot of cash! Blessed Biata didn't seem to get home on the ground this time (stayed on remarkably well on simlar going the time before) and didn't pick up at all, shaping as if she'd need better ground but certainly didn't run close to the level of her previous start. Every cloud has a silver lining and despite running poorly (wasn't given a hard time when beaten), that virtually assures she'll be going off at a nice price next time out and I'll be duly accepting it. We'll more than likely be collecting off her at some stage during the season and I've extremely high hopes for this filly, as do connections based on certain entries last season and this, so hopefully she'll live up to expectation. Good ground over 7f/1m on a flat-ish track should be ideal and early market indications should also be noted. Keep a close eye on this filly, she's going places." ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Today she should get the decent ground that I think she'll enjoy and also gets stepped up to a mile, which should also suit. Given the way she finished in softer ground up the Newmarket hill, the test she'll face here today at Ascot should suit and I've no doubt that she'll go on to be a very useful animal. This is a Listed Handicap and Blessed Biata runs off a mark of 93, which should prove to be below her true abilities. I think she's got plenty of room for improvement and the quicker ground could help bring that out. How forward she'll be first time up is anyone's guess but Johnny Murtagh gets the leg up for a yard that boast a cracking record around here. Murtagh is also riding well and has an amazing 20% strike-rate at Ascot, including 37 winners at the Royal meeting. He's bound to prove a positive to this animal and I think she can go well here in a race that's not beyond her if readied. Medium each-way stakes as I think I'll be collecting on her sometime soon, hopefully today.

[Haystacks]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers.

Selections - Julienas - 1.50pts e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365 - 5 places) Greensward - 0.50pts e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365 - 5 places) Hacienda - 0.50pts e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365 - 5 places)

Monte, if you fancy topping up, Julienas is an incredible 25-1 (5 places) at Ladbrokes. (I totally agree with you that a high draw up with the pace could be way to go in this race.)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Feck, I kept trying to go through the RP's odds comparison thing and Ladbrokes kept offering me SP every time I tried. Never thought of trying the main site, just assumed they went SP for some reason. :wall Stupidity strikes me hard at times. :sad I'd top up but I've staked more today than I have in a long time, so I'll play it cautiously and just stick with the 18's. Cheers for the info though, much appreciated. Best of luck today mate. :hope

[Haystacks]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers.

Feck, I kept trying to go through the RP's odds comparison thing and Ladbrokes kept offering me SP every time I tried. Never thought of trying the main site, just assumed they went SP for some reason. :wall Stupidity strikes me hard at times. :sad I'd top up but I've staked more today than I have in a long time, so I'll play it cautiously and just stick with the 18's. Cheers for the info though, much appreciated. Best of luck today mate. :hope

No, you weren't being 'stupid', they really did only have SP on their site last night. The RP was saying that Ladbrokes were offering 25-1, but when you went through to the actual Ladbrokes site it was SP only. I was trying to back it right up until I crashed out at around 11.30pm. Then when I got up this morning the 25-1 was actually available, so I dived in. When I saw that you had tipped it up, I thought I'd better let you know. Best of luck to you as well today Monte. Win, lose or draw, it's going to be another great day's racing!