Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

[fintron]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) No such thing as luck Monte, its just one of those things, you can't win all of the time and everyone has to go through a lean spell once in while. I'm in the same boat as you really, have enjoyed a really good flat season but things have quitened down now the good flat races are lessening and the form over the jumps hasn't yet settled down, still, just look at the figures you have produced in this thread. +33 % yield is a great achievement and even if you failed to pick another winner all season you'd still end up with a superb outcome. Was it Harry Findlay that once said nobody makes more than 8 % ROI? It was some pro, but anyway, I think that figure is a joke and threads like this prove it. Stick with your methods and everything changes, especially when you back em at double figures, no such thing as luck, just part of the form cycle but keep the faith :ok

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Thanks for the message Fin, that's now 20 losers in a row since Workforce landed the spoils for me. Very disheartening to spend so much time per day to get it so wrong, I understand these things happen but to be honest I'm not very used to it. I'll do my level best to try and get back into the winners enclosure soon, it'd be a massive weight off my shoulders anyways, just for that little bit of confidence. I'm thrilled with how everything has went though and I've learned so much and still have so much to learn, hopefully I come out of this little horror run with a few winners soon and keep plowing on. Thanks very much for the support and it really means a lot.

[superbourg]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts)

Thanks for the message Fin, that's now 20 losers in a row since Workforce landed the spoils for me. Very disheartening to spend so much time per day to get it so wrong, I understand these things happen but to be honest I'm not very used to it. I'll do my level best to try and get back into the winners enclosure soon, it'd be a massive weight off my shoulders anyways, just for that little bit of confidence. I'm thrilled with how everything has went though and I've learned so much and still have so much to learn, hopefully I come out of this little horror run with a few winners soon and keep plowing on. Thanks very much for the support and it really means a lot.

In order to support you a bit more I can give you some statistics I gathered concerning your excellent method. If you want me to do it, please send me a mail to superbourg at yahoo.com (I don't have your e-mail and I'm not authorized to send a PM either). I think this might be a kind of interesеing.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) 1:50 Newmarket - Red Jazz - 2pts @ 6/1 (StanJames) Very game 3 year old who has held his own in pattern company, he has a lot of speed and comes here on the back of a career best performance when 3rd in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Ii Stakes. He was 3/4 of a length behind the winner, Poet's Voice and ran an absolute cracker despite being a 40/1 shot and even bigger throughout the day. On official figures he's rated 1lb behind his main challenger for this race, Delegator, he will be carrying 2lbs less than the Godolphin horse so he's well in at the weights, although not by much. If he replicates his run from last time out he should take a lot of beating here. Interestingly, Robert Winston takes the ride today, he has only been ridden by Michael Hills before but he's gone to Canada to ride in a Grade 1 there. Winston is a jockey I really rate and I think he could be a plus to this horse, I don't really think Hills is the best of jockeys at all and I'm interested to see how Red Jazz will do with a new pilot today. He has a wonderful attitude and if he gets past the likely pace setter Duff in the final couple I think Delegator could find it tough to pass the Barry Hills trained 3 year old who is often very game in front and has a nice turn of foot when it's required. The Godolphin trained 4 year old won a decent Listed race on his reappearance but this is much tougher, he should come on for that but I'm yet to be fully convinced that he retains all of the old ability that saw him come 2nd to Sea The Stars in the '09 2,000 Guineas and a neck behind the wonderful Mastercraftsman. I'm reckon he's a much better miler than he is over this 7f trip and my selection, Red Jazz, should relish the step back in trip from racing over a mile in a Group 1 last time out. Red Jazz will love conditions today, he's a course and distance winner and has a sound draw in stall 7, not far away from the likely pace although he is prone to setting the pace himself but performed well off the back of a very good gallop last time out. There is a fair chance that the pace could be of a similar speed today and if it is my selection should take a lot of beating. Barry Hills has an excellent record in this race and has won it on 5 occasions and could well add another victory here, with a bit of luck. Red Jazz should love the ground today, it's currently Good and hopefully won't get any quicker. His record on Good ground is superb with form reading : 1-1-3. It is by far his most effective surface and with so much to suit here and on the back of a career best performance I see him as significantly overpriced at 6/1. I had him as a 7/2 shot and I don't think 6's will be around come race time. He has enough ability to win this and if he beats Delegator he will more than likely be the winner of this race. He's worth a small bet in the hope that he comes on for that Group 1 race and can take victory here in a Group 2.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) 3:00 Newmarket - Vision D'Etat - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365) Very classy 5 year old who has 4 Group 1's to his name, a Group 2, a Group 3 and a Listed race with 3 other smaller race wins. He has raced on 15 occasions winning 10, he's a very classy animal with a wonderful attitude to match his brilliant turn of foot. He's extremely tough to beat over this 1m 2f trip and has only suffered defeat on 2 of 9 occasions. This race has been his aim all season and he had a good win in a Group 3 after a 5 month break since flopping at Meydan when not handling the all weather track. It has been 2 months since that Group 3 success, he should be fresh, fit and ready for this task and has won after similar small breaks before, on numerous occasions. This has been his long time target and I fully expect he'll gain victory here if running to his usual high class standard. There doesn't seem to be too much pace in the race and I reckon it could play into his hands as he has a wonderful turn of foot as seen when winning the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot last year, he was 1 length ahead of Twice Over, who he re-opposes here. That one is 4/1 and looked very flat last time out, I can't see any justification in that price although on his day he's a top class animal. I'm not really convinced that Poet's Voice will stay, Frankie reckons he has a big chance but I couldn't take 11/2 about a horse who hasn't been tested at this trip in this company, he's certainly opposable. Gitano Hernando is an All Weather horse and how the 6/1 price tag can be justified I'll never know, he could well go close but I think he's not up to this on these terms. Fuisse is interesting but hasn't won at anything past 1m and may struggle to stay with some 10f specialists here, he should run well but 6's are too short for me. Wouldn't be overly worried about any of the rest, I'm a big fan of Wigmore Hall, he has done me good turns on numerous occasions but this is a massive test for him. If he does win I'll be delighted and happily lose my bet but I just can't see it happening, especially with Jamie 'I'm going to ruin your chances' Spencer on board. 22/1 is a lovely price about him but probably reflects his chances quite accurately. Now back to my selection, Vision D'Etat. He has a stunningly good chance here in my opinion, on bare form he beats them all and with so many doubts about the rest and very little about him I have priced him up as the 7/4 favourite in my book. Possibly a bit mad but I believe it reflects his chances here and the 7/2 available are huge. This has been his target, this is his trip, his ground, his type of track. I think he'll go very well and go off even shorter once the betting public realize the class that he possesses. He has a favourites chance here and is the best horse in the race, in my opinion. He's worth medium stakes at a price I consider too big, hopefully I'm right on this one.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) 3:40 Newmarket - Plymouth Rock - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes) Consistent, unexposed and talented 4 year old who has went up 10lbs in weight this year without winning but could be right at home on these terms. He hasn't been tested over this 2m 2f trip but ran well in a class 3 handicap on the July course when coming 3rd over 2miles, he hung badly left when hitting the front and threw away his chance of victory. He proved he should stay this trip that day and if he doesn't hit the front too early he could have a very chance of proving up to this level. He ran poorly in a class 2 contest last time out, missed the break and never got involved. If he gets away well today he should get a good sit in mid division to hopefully run on late. Darryll Holland takes the ride on this fellow for the first time, he's a wonderful jockey and has a fine 20% strike rate when riding for Jeremy Noseda. Noseda has never won this race before but he rarely has too many out and out stayers and has only saddled one horse for this contest who ended up coming in midfield. Holland has ridden in it on 6 occasions, never bettering a 7th place effort that he achieved in 2001. With a bit of luck I think this unexposed 4 year old could change all that, he has the ability to do it and I think that the big field here could bring the best out of him. There's likely to be a strong gallop and plenty of potential to get him covered up and settled, if he does truly stay and runs on I think he could be bang in there with a shout come the final couple of furlongs as he has the turn of foot to compete when the tempo is increased, if he avoids his traditional hanging and running around when called upon for an effort he will be seen in a far better light. It's a big if but I've seen enough of this fellow to believe he could do it and I marked him up as one to follow quite a while before. Plymouth Rock has only had 9 career starts to date, winning once on debut in a 16 runner field when showing a good turn of foot to score by a length, that was over 10 furlongs but I believe the large field here should suit him. It'll be a tough slog up the hill at the end and he should enjoy that. He'll like the Good ground but likes and handles pretty much any ground. He's drawn in stall 13 which isn't ideal and an unlucky number! I'm hoping it'll bring him some luck and with plenty of pace drawn around him it may not be the worst place to be given his need for a nice sit in behind. He has had the last month off without seeing a race track and should come here in good knick and hopefully ready to put up a big challenge. 50/1 is far too big for this unexposed and well bred stayer, I couldn't price up this race as it'd take all day but I think he's too big of a price given his ability and the yard he comes from. He's worth small each way stakes in a lottery of a race but hopefully one that's solvable. 5 places are available with various bookmakers so it's worth shopping around for the best value, I only have the luxury of 4 places, hopefully he acquires one of them and hopefully 1st place.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Now for the traditional 'what the f*ck is he backing that one for?'. :lol 4:15 Newmarket - Nabah - 0.5pts e/w @ 66/1 (StanJames) Well bred daughter of the wonderful Motivator who took a long time to get going on debut at Kempton 5 days ago. She started off slowly, ran into a lot of traffic problems and ran on well from last to come 4th of 11 in a decent enough little maiden. It'll take a hell of a jump up in form to win this but she is bred to make a decent 2 year old and should relish this step up in trip, once she got used to the racing game she showed tons of class to run on late in the day on the AW. She should make a nice middle distance 3 year old filly and I'll certainly be following her progress but I wouldn't be completely surprised if she went over and above all expectations and ran into a place here. She clearly has a lot of ability after running green for so long and should like this ground, she has a decent draw in stall 7 of 12 and is up against a lot of horses who like herself, could be anything. Clive Brittain is prone to these crazily overpriced horses who end up winning at huge odds and he had 2 similar ones in the past couple of weeks, including one over C&D. Tom Queally rides her this time and no better man to have on board a 2 year old, he's a wonderful jockey and can get the most out of his rides, if he can get her settled in behind the pace I think she will be highly suited by what could be a good gallop. Queally is riding quite well of late and he's good with these hold up horses. 66/1 is far too big and she's a 20/1 shot in my book based on her eye catching debut run, she'll make a good type next year but I think she's worth minimal each way stakes in the off chance that she does find enough to go close here. I'm hoping Clive springs another suprise on us here and has this one ready to claim a massive Group 2 scalp only 5 days after making her debut in a class 4 contest at Kempton, who knows!

[Lars]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Nabah? Be original ;):lol

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Yeah, yeah. ;) Taking my selections off me on MSN and doing a quick fire write up, classy Lars, real classy. :lol Only joking.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) 2:40 Cheltenham - Il Duce - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365) 10 years old now but a high quality performer on his day, ran well for a long time in the Powers Gold Cup when last seen nearly a year ago and has since returned to his former yard 10lbs lower than when last running for them on New Years day of '09. He has went well fresh before including when running well here in big handicaps. He usually runs with credit around here and has raced here a mammoth 12 times, never winning but came 2nd (in big races inc. off higher marks) on 3 occasions with 2 3rd places. This trip is right in between his optimum trips of 2m4f and 2m5f, he should also have no bothers with the ground although he's highly effective on slower ground. Wayne Hutchinson takes the ride and he has been on board him before, when giving him a decent ride to come 4th of 19 in the 2008 Powers Gold Cup, Il Duce was out of his league there but still posted a decent result despite fading tamely. He only has to do 10st 13lbs which is one of his lowest handicap weights in a while, I reckon it is a big plus for him and puts him bang in the frame on all his old form. Trainer, Alan King, is good at getting horses ready after a lay off and hopefully it's no different with this fellow, if he's primed and ready he should stand a very big chance here at a course that he goes well around, hopefully it's lucky number 13 for him. 14/1 is too big in my opinion and I had him priced up as an 8/1 shot in what looks a tough contest. He certainly has enough going for him to do well and he's worth small each way stakes at tasty odds, hopefully he feels no ill-effects from almost a year off the track and glides his way to victory for the first time since the middle of '07.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Chin up Monte, hopefully things can turn for you today. It's not just you thats going through a rough patch. I have been in a shocking run in my flat thread but thankfully a winner on the AW the other day has boosted my confidence a little bit.

[Boulder5111]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Yeah, keep thinking positive Monte, it'll turn around again. At the prices you're getting involved at, there's always going to be lean spells but a winner or two will get you back on track. :ok

[markysimmo]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts)

1:50 Newmarket - Red Jazz - 2pts @ 6/1 (StanJames) Very game 3 year old who has held his own in pattern company, he has a lot of speed and comes here on the back of a career best performance when 3rd in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Ii Stakes. He was 3/4 of a length behind the winner, Poet's Voice and ran an absolute cracker despite being a 40/1 shot and even bigger throughout the day. On official figures he's rated 1lb behind his main challenger for this race, Delegator, he will be carrying 2lbs less than the Godolphin horse so he's well in at the weights, although not by much. If he replicates his run from last time out he should take a lot of beating here. Interestingly, Robert Winston takes the ride today, he has only been ridden by Michael Hills before but he's gone to Canada to ride in a Grade 1 there. Winston is a jockey I really rate and I think he could be a plus to this horse, I don't really think Hills is the best of jockeys at all and I'm interested to see how Red Jazz will do with a new pilot today. He has a wonderful attitude and if he gets past the likely pace setter Duff in the final couple I think Delegator could find it tough to pass the Barry Hills trained 3 year old who is often very game in front and has a nice turn of foot when it's required. The Godolphin trained 4 year old won a decent Listed race on his reappearance but this is much tougher, he should come on for that but I'm yet to be fully convinced that he retains all of the old ability that saw him come 2nd to Sea The Stars in the '09 2,000 Guineas and a neck behind the wonderful Mastercraftsman. I'm reckon he's a much better miler than he is over this 7f trip and my selection, Red Jazz, should relish the step back in trip from racing over a mile in a Group 1 last time out. Red Jazz will love conditions today, he's a course and distance winner and has a sound draw in stall 7, not far away from the likely pace although he is prone to setting the pace himself but performed well off the back of a very good gallop last time out. There is a fair chance that the pace could be of a similar speed today and if it is my selection should take a lot of beating. Barry Hills has an excellent record in this race and has won it on 5 occasions and could well add another victory here, with a bit of luck. Red Jazz should love the ground today, it's currently Good and hopefully won't get any quicker. His record on Good ground is superb with form reading : 1-1-3. It is by far his most effective surface and with so much to suit here and on the back of a career best performance I see him as significantly overpriced at 6/1. I had him as a 7/2 shot and I don't think 6's will be around come race time. He has enough ability to win this and if he beats Delegator he will more than likely be the winner of this race. He's worth a small bet in the hope that he comes on for that Group 1 race and can take victory here in a Group 2.

Well done fella, got a lovely free run and moved away smartly, Delegator got blocked off a few times, Frankie seemed to try and take him through a hole that wasnt there..

[Boulder5111]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) welcome back to the winners enclosure Monte :ok Red Jazz showed a great attitude - very nice start :ok

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Thanks lads, such a relief. :clap He wasn't going to get beat once he reached the front, even if Delegator got out, in my opinion.

[silverhaze]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Congrats Monte!! Another winner and back on track again! Hope the rest of your selections do as good cause I'm backing them :rollin!! Slainte :cheers

[superbourg]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Well done! You are back to winning ways :ok

[cornershop]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Well done Monte, long may it continue!:clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Thank you lads, hopefully the rest run well now. That was such a relief, I shouldn't let these things bog me down but I do! Really played on my mind, which is bad. I'll learn from it though. :)

[Aidymac]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Well done!! :clap

[hulltra]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Well done Monty,great call on Red Jazz.Glad to see you back in the winners!:beer

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Thank you lads. :notworthy Il Duce was poor, jumped badly but that's live. Hopefully there's some more winners to come. :hope

[silverhaze]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Plymouth Rock 3rd @50/1 - nice mate!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) Cheers mate but I'm gutted. He was the best horse in the race and should of won. Had to look for a run and it cost him. I'm 100% certain he should of won that. :(

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+172pts) +17.5pts today. Still dreaming what could of been. Plymouth Rock SHOULD of won, so unlucky in running. The last one, Nabah, was well backed from 66's early doors into 22/1. She didn't really handle the track and is one for the future. She ran a gallant 4th though.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+189pts) Bank - 289.79pts (+189.79pts) Bets - 249 Wins - 41 Placed - 62 SR - 16.5% Staked - 526.5pts Returned - 716.29pts ROI - 36%

[silverhaze]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+189pts) Well, at least you showed a nice profit today monte! :nana Looking forward to your selections for tomoz!

[calculus]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+189pts) Well done sir! Plymouth Rock was seriously unlucky in running, but that is to be expected in these big handicaps I guess, all the same a nice profit on the day :ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+189pts) Back on track Monte :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+189pts) Thank you all very much. I possibly take failure too bad but today has me feeling might good about myself again, hopefully things pick up and I can salvage a decent October out of it all. :hope You're all top top people and thank you.