Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July What a **** of a stage this is turning out to be. Tony Martin in the same situation got chased down, but the current group of 4 was allowed to go off. None of them mine and none will get caught, so time to tune out of this stage.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Looks like I spoke a little too soon. Very surprised these two were allowed to bridge though. Would still think Kiryienka should be a strong favourite from here though.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Rolland 5.00 (Coral) live Stage 10 Add some money on the young frenchman. Made very well to break. He is very good climber and nice descender. Aerts and Kiryenka is also good on the climbs, but first one gave a lot of efforts previous days, whyle Kiryenka seems is not on the same form as previous years at Grand tours. We will see :) The peleton is sleeping so i think the break will suceed

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Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July I think break will definitely succeed. Sprinters can't make it over the final parts of this en masse so nobody will really chase. Rolland isn't a great time trial rider though so will he be able to hang on after good climbing and descending? Took him pre-stage and he is easily my best result, but have a very bad feeling about it, even if he is close to the best climber in this group.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July On this year First Stage at Criterium international was ups and downs and Rolland was the guy who was on the break and moving very well to the first big climb on the day with two or three other French guys. They were all three together on ups and downs until the final hell climb, where Rolland gave down. I hope this is well for his climbing ability. He may try something on the last climb and then to keep it well at the downhill. At Circuit de Lorraine, he won Stage 4, where there were one Cat 2 climb and two cat 1 climb. The last Cat 1 climb was 10 km from the finish. Rolland managed to finish solo 18 second from the next group. However this is just some numbers and history, but i think the profile suits perfectly to him :)

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Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July You could well be right. I certainly wouldn't say he's not qualified to win this, just think he wont as I can't remember even having back to back winners over 50-1 :lol Personally I think it is between Rolland, Paulinho and Kiryienka. Paulinho is an olympic silver medallist and has many years of riding tempo as a domestique, so if he uses the same ability to ride tempo off the top of the climb he could take it. Aerts is an outsider - strong abilities but doesn't have many wins to his name in a long career. Bouet and Devenyns would surprise me as winners.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Very disappointing stage for me. Not so much because Rolland didn't win, but because I'm sure Tony Martin would have won had he made the break. Like the successful break, he was in a group of 4 that got a 20 second advantage, but they brought him back, only for a different group of 4 to form :eyes Roche gaining over a minute was also something I could have done without. KOTM looking to be a 3 man battle, but there is, by my count, something like 175pts available in back to back stages in the pyrenees, so it is still far from decided. Tomorrow should be a simpler stage, and I'll be interested to see what odds Cavendish is at, as I believe there's a strong chance the stage will end in the sprint. Whether the market agrees will be interesting.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Yups, not so nice stage. French guys seems to give too much to get the break and specialy Rolland do not have an answer for the last attack. Both Paulinho and Kiryenka were superiour and far better prepared for such a break. Tomorrow will look probably for Huschovd win at 26+ odds. Now i see some 19, but probably some of the bookies would put something better on him.

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Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Having seen the odds about I am very disappointed. The market fully expects this to be a sprint without any chance for the breakaway. Whilst I don't disagree with this assessment, I thought there would be more chance given to the break given the stage we are on. As for Thor, he really looks to have lost some top speed to me, and for value I might look to the other Norwegian who seems to be sprinting that little bit faster. One early one, based on the price and a previous quote more so than any strong belief that it'll come good: Yukiya Arashiro @ 401 (E/W 1/4 1-2-3) Bet365 Arashiro has said that he would attack on an earlier stage but failed to do so. He is not a climber so this stage may be his last chance to look for a break, and we all know Bbox like to do this. Though I am unconvinced the break will win, I do feel he'd likely be the fastest sprinter in any break that does form, and it is for this reason that I can take these odds knowing there's a wee bit of value in here.

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Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Two small H2H bets with odds I think are wrong: Boasson Hagen to finish ahead of Ciolek @ 2.37 Bet365 Two very evenly matched sprinters IMO. Ciolek had a nice 2nd result the other day whilst Boasson Hagen seems to sprinting without luck and is getting boxed in at key moments. I can't really split them overall and given this the more than even money about EBH has to make this one value IMO. Sebastian Turgot to finish ahead of JJ Rojas @ 2.1 Bet365 Of the 5 sprints these men have contested, Turgot has been first across the line on 4 occasions. Granted, on 3 of those occasions Rojas was only one position behind, but it still suggests that the Frenchman is sprinting strongly and I feel he's the wrong side of evens.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Two small H2H bets with odds I think are wrong: Sebastian Turgot to finish ahead of JJ Rojas @ 2.1 Bet365 Of the 5 sprints these men have contested, Turgot has been first across the line on 4 occasions. Granted, on 3 of those occasions Rojas was only one position behind, but it still suggests that the Frenchman is sprinting strongly and I feel he's the wrong side of evens.

2.35 at Pinnacle :) with far better limits This is the last clear stage before Pirynees and they have two more clear sprint stages after the tough mountains. 12-th stage will be perfect for breakway with a lot of small climbs. 13-th also had Cat 3 climb at the end and i think suited better for breakway then for sprint. From 14-th they will enter at the mountains. Cav looks a clear favorite here. Thor really lost some speed, but he knows that his green jersey margin is going down. Cav is almost out of the point competition having lost in the first stages. Petacchi surprises me. What an effort from him. But the next four mountains stages would be too much for him.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Tomorrow is indeed perfect for a break and a stage I look forward to much more than today's. One last one, but overall a quiet betting day. Farrar top 3 finish @ 3 Sportingbet Tyler Farrar has only really contested one sprint since his injury, and that was while riding with it. On that day he came 2nd and the comments he has made suggest he is able to produce the effort and compete in the sprint. He has also said that he expects to resume his role as the team's main sprinter and with today likely to be the only bunch sprint, he can afford to give it his all.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Stage 11 Thor Huschovd W Betfair 28.00 Thor is fighting for the green jersey and knows that Petacchi is up behind him. Still didn't show his speed qualities in this year's tour. During previous sprint stages he was overpowered, but seems always was in good position. With Sastre almost out of podium battle at GC, the only goal of the team must be green jersey and a possible stage win. Thor had very good lead out guys, who may help him. If he is at his best, probably may get a victory. I saw that in every sprint until now he is waiting to much to start the sprint. Maybe if he gets earlier ahead will be easier to maintain the high speed, then to show that he would overaccelerate Farrar, Cav and Petacchi.

[Luckatoni]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Tomorrow is indeed perfect for a break and a stage I look forward to much more than today's. One last one, but overall a quiet betting day. Farrar top 3 finish @ 3 Sportingbet Tyler Farrar has only really contested one sprint since his injury, and that was while riding with it. On that day he came 2nd and the comments he has made suggest he is able to produce the effort and compete in the sprint. He has also said that he expects to resume his role as the team's main sprinter and with today likely to be the only bunch sprint, he can afford to give it his all.

He did it again! :cheers I don't know what Renshaw was doing there... :(. It seemed to be an ABC stage.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July One winner at 2-1 and 2 basically even money shots failing. Stages don't get much more neutral than that (though Cancellara might argue!). Looking forward to the stage tomorrow and trying to pick the break (until the point I fail to, in which case I will start to resent it :lol) Looks like 42 KOTM points available tomorrow. Would expect Pineau, Charteau and Moreau to try for the break, though doubt any of them would win. Still, those who can trade (i.e. not us poor aussies) might be able to make some profit from that.

[Luckatoni]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Is not Moreau a good pick for KOTM. Its clearly that he sets his eyes on KOTM. He is still pretty strong in Mountains and I am impressed with his efforts so far. And also for the break tomorrow and the next mountain stages he has a shot for it. 15.5 seems good odds for me. What do you think?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July I almost backed Moreau at 126 on the stage Casar won (and Moreau got all his points) but didn't. Regret it now and am avoiding taking the bet because my judgement could be clouded by not backing when I first fancied it. I would think it's a decent bet though. Frankly Pineau is an awful favourite, couldn't score on the only Hors Cat climb to date and over the next week there's nothing but Hors and Cat 1 climbs.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Also, it should be noted that there was a cat 3 climb today. As the break only contained 3 riders there was 1 point up for grabs. According to race radio, 4 riders attacked the peleton near the top of the climb (Pineau, Charteau, Cunego and Barredo, a team-mate of Pineau). Pineau won the sprint but it should be noted that Cunego was there too. It's the first real sign that his interest in the classification is more than incidental. Still, with a maximum of 200 points still up for grabs, anything can still happen (In fact, the maximum number of points still available may be closer to 300, though obviously a rider wont take even half of that).

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Mark Renshaw has been kicked out of the tour after his headbutt(s) on Julian Dean. That will certainly make the next sprint we see a bit interesting. Eisel might do a good job as a lead out man but it could certainly open up the sprints a bit. If it causes enough chaos I actually think a sprinter like McEwen could be one to benefit, if his injuries heal a bit more. Of course, I will still be looking for a win from Boasson Hagen.

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Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July 1 early one: Damiano Cunego @ 26 Sportingbet The market seems to suggest that the main contenders will contest this one but I'm not so sure. The good thing about Cunego is that he can win from either scenario. He has been very active in looking for breaks and with a mountain finish this is an ideal one for him to win from. He is far enough down on time to be allowed in such a move. If, however, the race all comes together at the base of the climb, if Cunego has missed the initial move, there is always a chance that he can attack late and win it, as none of the contenders will be interested in following him.

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Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July A few more, all with Paddy Power Sylvester Szmyd @ 101 This man was an absolute beast in the Giro but so far hasn't shown himself in the tour. I don't think the mountains will be overly hard so Szmyd may be given a license to look for Liquigas' first stage win. He lost 7'27 on stage 11 so there is the possibility that he is conserving a bit of energy for a big effort in a break attempt. Christophe Le Mevel @ 67 This man is now far enough behind on the GC for the peleton to not consider him a threat. He looked for the break in stage 10 and may well look to do so again. He also attacked the peleton on the first mountain stage so if the main group arrive at the base in front there's still the possibility he will attack from it and look to win. Pierrick Fedrigo @ 46 So far this man has been eerily quiet. With Rolland having been in the break the other day, you would think his chances of being in the break, and certainly winning from one, are a bit lower. As such the two main men on the squad, Voeckler and Fedrigo, are likely to be the men the french team look to. Fedrigo is easily the better of the two when it comes to the mountains and I think you will see him try really hard to be in the break today. Like Szmyd he lost 7 and a half mins in today's stage and could well be conserving energy. Linus Gerdemann @ 46 Another hyper aggressive rider who has been very quiet so far. Milram should be looking to put a man in the break, and if we are being honest, Linus is really the only one who can win from one on a stage like this. Should have a couple more soon...

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Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July All these with Bet365 Yaroslav Popovych @ 81 Radioshack have said now that they will look for the breaks and Popovych seems to be their first choice. Throughout his career Radioshack DS Johan Bruyneel has employed Popovych as a break candidate. He won a stage on Bastille a few years ago, and was in a break last year on a mountain stage. In 2007 he was also active, so much so that he was at one point competing for the KOTM classification. He has also been very active so far, as he was the first rider to attack from the Shack team on stage 10, and he was also the man who covered Chavanel's late attack today. He is a decent climber too which will bode well should he make the break as the finish of the stage is a category 2 climb. Amael Moinard @ 81 Would almost certainly have won had Quickstep not acted stupidly the other day. He said after he would look for another break after the rest day and I think the profile of today's stage will be well suited. The final climb is hard enough for him to drop riders not proficient in the mountains but not so steep that he can't handle them himself. With Taarmae seemingly spent he is probably the best chance Cofidis have of winning this stage, aside from Monier. Unlike Monier, though, Moinard lost 7"41 on stage 11, indicating he may be conserving energy for a big effort. Matthew Lloyd @ 51 Lloyd has been very active in looking for breaks so far, without too much luck (he was in the break in the first stage Chavanel won). He and Aerts seem to be the designated men for Lotto when it comes to the mountain breakaways and with Aerts in the Bastille day break I'm picking Lloyd to be the lotto's man today. With a little luck, we might not win the lotto, but Lloyd certainly might win for the lotto. As you can see, I'm definitely going for the break on this stage. I really don't see why many teams would work to bring this one back. The main contenders want time, not stage victories, and the sprinters' teams wont chase because the sprinters can't possibly win. You might find 1-2 teams who have a rider who could win it and chase, but for me, the break should succeed more often than not, and if tomorrow is an occasion where it doesn't, at least some of these riders can win out of the main group (providing they attack late and aren't chased by the contenders, which they shouldn't be). Possibly 2 more picks to come, but no more than that. Tomorrow is going to be mighty annoying if I don't get any men in the break, but the stakes for each pick are relatively small, as I fancy a few to a medium level, but nobody at a big level. Hope that made sense. Grammar tends to be the first thing to go at 4:30am :lol

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Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Final one of note: Tony Martin @ 67 Sportsbet We saw Martin try really hard for the break a couple of days ago and I would not be surprised to see him try again. With Renshaw being kicked out Columbia may also look to make a statement and try extra hard to win this stage, and Martin is their best candidate, when you consider that Rogers is likely too high up to be in a successful break. Martin is also a very good time trailist, which will serve him well if he can get off the front alone. With also have a small something on Simon Spilak and Steve Morabito.

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Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July 18 man break and I manage to pick exactly one. :eyes Tipping at it's most awful.

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Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July All bets with sportingbet Edvald Boasson Hagen Top 3 @ 4 With a category 3 climb towards the end some of the pure sprinters may be eliminated on the run in, which will play into the hands of a rider like Boasson Hagen. Though a sprint finish is not certain I believe that a team like Cervelo will view this as a place to gain significant points over Pettachi, who may not deal with the climb as well as Hushovd. They and a few other sprinters teams, like Sky, should hopefully be looking to see this end in a bunch sprint, where Boasson Hagen has already proved he is capable of a top 3 spot. With Farrar out and Cav and Pettachi questionable over the climb these chances surely increase. Gerald Ciolek Top 3 @ 7 This is a finish that is much better suited to Ciolek. He likes a harder run in because this is where he is better than a rider like Cav or Pettachi who will generally beat him in the sprint otherwise. Farrar out also eliminates one competitor and if Cav and Ale Jet fail to get over the climb and this is a sprint finish, both of which are quite possible, than Ciolek will have very little competition for a top 3 berth. JJ Rojas Top 3 @ 5 Rojas is another sprinter who is ab;e to deal with small climbs better than a pure sprinter. Farrar out also eliminates one competitor and if Cav and Ale Jet fail to get over the climb and this is a sprint finish, both of which are quite possible, than Rojas will have very little competition for a top 3 berth.

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Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Alessandro Ballan @ 67 Sportingbet The finish is a perfect place for 2008 world champion Alessandro Ballan to attack. Last year on a similar type of stage (Where Cav actually summited the climb and went on to win) Ballan launched an attack that didn't quite come off. The fact that he did attack though shows that he will be looking for these opportunities and if he can get into a late break then he has a very good finish. Lars Boom @ 67 Sportingbet AU Like Ballan, Boom is another rider I can see trying to launch himself on the final little climb. He is a very strong time trial rider so if he can get himself a gap then he will have a chance of taking it all the way to the finish. He tried for an early break yesterday so we know he is aggressive and looking for an opportunity to win. This stage profile should be tricky enough to give a rider like him an opportunity to make it work.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Juan Antonio Flecha @ 41 Bet365 Though Sky have EBH for the sprint they may look to field a two pronged attack on today's stage and aim to put a man in the break. If they do Flecha would a prime candidate. He is a strong flats rider and should be able to summit the small climb towards the end, so he has the ideal abilities to win from a break, be it an early one that survives or a late one. Matti Breschel @ 101 Sportingbet Saxo bank will have to do a fair bit of work tomorrow, may have to do the same the day after that and also worked hard yesterday. If they want to reduce their efforts today the smartest tactic would be to involve themselves in the break. Though they have several candidates (Voigt, Nicki Sorensen, Cancellara, Breschel, O'Grady) I have a feeling that Breschel may be the man. Aside from Cancellara he has the best chance of winning the stage and given we only get paid out on picking the winner, it is a fairly easy choice.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July So... having backed Fedrigo 4 times in the past week, today is the day he makes the break. :sad Watch him win now :eyes

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Ballan attacks but Vino wins. The men I have for top 3 run 4th and 5th. **** I hate this tour.

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Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July 3 what I'm sure will end up to be losing bets Cunego @ 67 Sportingbet Cunego has been exceptionally active in recent stages and has been looking for the stage win. Providing no GC riders make the break it should gain some decent time and a rider like Cunego is one of very few riders who, if given enough time, actually has the climbing abilities to go on and claim the stage Plaza @ 151 365 Ruben Plaza has been climbing fairly well so far and hasn't lost too much time on each of the mountain stages so far. He seems to be acting as the lieutenant for Luis Leon Sanchez, but with a high mountain stage tomorrow Caisse may look to employ him in a break and open up their stage victory account. De Weert @ 151 365 So far Quickstep have been very active in looking for the breakaway. Though Chavanel and Pineau have been the most active the truth is only De Weert is really capable of winning this stage tomorrow. He has been climbing quite strongly so far and hasn't been losing too much time on the big mountain stages. He is, however, still quite far behind on GC, so will have the latitude to participate in the break.