erhaab1965 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread They had every angle covered fella' date=' if they didn't Homecoming Queen would not have been in the race.[/quote'] If they knew Homecoming Queen was the main hope then Maybe would have been diverted elsewhere in a bid to keep her unbeaten tag in races such as the Irish / French 1000 Guineas. After years of following the sport I cannot accept this tactic happens in Group 1 events , i believe that in Gr1's it will be as clean as you can get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread Lets skip the conspiracy theories regarding America, as I didn't actually think reasonable thinking people believed that stuff, but there we go. So you too agree that the plan always was for Windsor Palace to win today and they'd land a few bets in the process? I just need to know, merely so I don't class you as some grade A nutter... Yipp, And he did! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread Lets skip the conspiracy theories regarding America, as I didn't actually think reasonable thinking people believed that stuff, but there we go. So you too agree that the plan always was for Windsor Palace to win today and they'd land a few bets in the process? I just need to know, merely so I don't class you as some grade A nutter... From Sportinglife.com Aidan O'Brien has won this for the past two years with long odds-on chances Fame And Glory and So You Think and is ensuring there is no hanging around for ST NICHOLAS ABBEY by entering both Robin Hood and Windsor Palace. The former took a race to warm up last season before an outstanding campaign culminating in his Breeders' Cup Turf success but arrives here on the back of another brilliant effort in the Dubai Sheema Classic and is hard to oppose. Bob Le Beau was beaten 10 lengths in this last year but it was no disgrace and he had a successful campaign which included a Listed success on soft ground at Limerick. Sharestan, the Irish Lincolnshire winner, made the classy Famous Name pull out all the stops at Leopardstown and the selection has little margin for error against an opponent in top form who will love the conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaostheorie Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread So you too agree that the plan always was for Windsor Palace to win today and they'd land a few bets in the process? I just need to know, merely so I don't class you as some grade A nutter... Absolutely. As i said, the credibility of SNA is not damaged, because it was clearly the jockey's fault. And then they get the price money and could have placed some massive ammounts of Windsor Palace @ 67. It is a win-win situation for the O'Briens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread the credibility of SNA is not damaged' date=' because it was clearly the jockey's fault. [/quote'] In 10 years time when breeders are looking to use SNA the 2nd place will make him less attractive.They won't look deeper and realise that young Joseph rode a poor race. Same with Maybe , in 10 years time 11111111111 would look better than 111113111 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 You can't have £100 on a 66/1 shot without the price moving!!! Let's say u r right - can u explain why the top 2 in the betting were heavily backed all day??? This is the sort of stuff Matt Chapman comes out with!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread I can't quite believe what I'm reading tonight from a couple of you, and I know it may seem quite offensive to say you're "bonkers" and the like, but the stuff you've come up with tonight is absolutely ludicrous, bordering on the defamatory and quite plainly wrong. The fact is, that SNA was given an easy time of it by Joseph O'Brien today for the most part because they'd thought he'd absolutely hack up. The field wasn't that great, Sharestan is rated 108 and probably capable of a bit better, but the field was hardly full of brilliant types. Windsor Palace was rated 99, can set decent fractions in front and is at least genuine, but hadn't won since 2007 and that included in races that he would have had a chance in, including in a handicap behind Sharestan in March, off a mark of 95! The notion that Windsor Palace had been plotted for this race that Aidy and Jimmy are suggesting is quite frankly, the most silly thing I've ever heard. You're giving Aidan O'Brien almost godlike status, he's a brilliant horseman, and will perhaps go down as one of the best ever (just see my post on the 1000 Guineas thread, his theory on stalls is probably the main reason for his second string filly winning so comfortably). But, for you to think that he could be confident about a 98 rated handicapper winning a Group 3 race, with a top-class 1m4f+ horse in attendance alongside another who had the beating of him this season (30l), then you're mental. The thing regarding starting prices and "private bookmakers" has been corrected by Erhaab, Private bookmakers don't run their own little private markets do they? They'd have to do some trading to cover some "big bets" that connections of Windsor Palace have allegedly landed today, and where would them bets go? The big bookmakers and therefore lowering the starting price. Second/Third strings do win races, look at Godolphin (where betting isn't really on connections minds, work-riders often know more than the trainers do at the early stages of a horse's career with the Godolphin stable (that is actually a fact), especially as they have so many horses spread over so many stables, they find it difficult to reasonably assess juveniles/young horses against each other in a race, so that's why the red-caps often win. In handicaps too, seemingly lower strings win, sometimes an upturn in performance is expected and second string colours are put on to get a better price, other times it may just be that the performance is a surprise. Horses aren't machines and can run better/worse than the form you're suggesting. But comparing these incidents to today or yesterday, where you're saying that Homecoming Queen was expected to get close to Maybe and they landed some big bets in the process is completely rubbish. Maybe's failure to win would have lost them plenty in potential fees for her progeny, whilst you could argue that G1 success for Homecoming Queen would increase her value for whatever she produced, those losses are going to count against her in the bloodstock market. As for AOB being on his phone all the time, he's been on the phone plenty of times when Tabor/Magnier etc have been at the course with him, so I don't quite see who'd he be talking to then. This forum tries to promote "good-quality reasoning" and a decent level of quality is tried to be attained, but posts like those above really do knock the forum. They're ill-informed, defamatory, and just against all logic. I can't quite believe that people reasonably thought there was some other explanation in the entry of Windsor Palace other than to set a fierce pace with stablemate Robin Hood, so they'd be at least a reasonable stamina test for SNA to make sure it didn't become a sprint for home. J O'Brien got his tactics wrong, as did Jonny Murtagh, but apart from that, there's nothing to suggest anything else. No signs from the bookmakers who would actual squeal like pigs if they'd taken some bets on Windsor Palace. He was a pacemaker that managed to hang on, nothing more. Just think. Please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavlar17 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread It certainly makes good reading. I'm going to side with Lars and co on this one though! A poor ride from young O'brien today. Let's be real here, if it was 'planned' that he would allow Windsor Palace to win I'm sure it wouldn't have been as close as it was.... Even if the owner, trainer and dog had all backed it they'd sure have been sweating as St Nicholas Abbey was flying approaching the line. It would have been impossible for the jockey to lose by such a mall margin on purpose! I'd have certainly been sweating with a big wedge on a 66/1 shot with a vastly closing gap approaching the line. ill happily put it down to coincidence and that'll do it for me. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaostheorie Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread You can't have £100 on a 66/1 shot without the price moving!!! Let's say u r right - can u explain why the top 2 in the betting were heavily backed all day??? This is the sort of stuff Matt Chapman comes out with!! How many bookmakers do you have in UK? You can place bets there, on the course and on the exchanges. You can bet 1000€ easily on that horse. And that is enough to make some serious money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread This forum tries to promote "good-quality reasoning" and a decent level of quality is tried to be attained, but posts like those above really do knock the forum. They're ill-informed, defamatory, and just against all logic. I can't quite believe that people reasonably thought there was some other explanation in the entry of Windsor Palace other than to set a fierce pace with stablemate Robin Hood, so they'd be at least a reasonable stamina test for SNA to make sure it didn't become a sprint for home. J O'Brien got his tactics wrong, as did Jonny Murtagh, but apart from that, there's nothing to suggest anything else. No signs from the bookmakers who would actual squeal like pigs if they'd taken some bets on Windsor Palace. He was a pacemaker that managed to hang on, nothing more. Just think. Please? Thats more a less exactly what I wanted to say but didn't dare! Have no interest in getting too involved in an argument but was/am surprised to read some opinions this evening!! Still not sure we've not been 'sucked in' to be honest.... I almost hope I have been!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread If they knew Homecoming Queen was the main hope then Maybe would have been diverted elsewhere in a bid to keep her unbeaten tag in races such as the Irish / French 1000 Guineas. After years of following the sport I cannot accept this tactic happens in Group 1 events , i believe that in Gr1's it will be as clean as you can get it. Pretty good point but A.O'Brien trains for the owners and two good horses in a race is better than one, the owners had the 1st & 3rd home in Homecoming queen & Maybe, its a question that would be better answered by Mr O'Brien, in one hand you have owners racing against themselves, but its a race they set out to win with two good horses and a race they did win. Put yourself in their shoes, if you had two good horses would you be all that bothered about what one won ? from what i also understand Coolmore / Ballydoyle have their own stud set up so they must have known what they were putting on the line by racing two horses owned by the same group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread How many bookmakers do you have in UK? You can place bets there' date=' on the course and on the exchanges. You can bet 1000€ easily on that horse. And that is enough to make some serious money.[/quote'] No you can't!!! It would be widely reported in the media if there was anything dodgy going on. The Betfair SP was 230!!!!! I promise you that u r wrong on this occasion but fully respect your right to have that opinion.... Dont mean to be antagonistic but it's utter bollox in my humble opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaostheorie Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread No you can't!!! It would be widely reported in the media if there was anything dodgy going on. The Betfair SP was 230!!!!! I promise you that u r wrong on this occasion but fully respect your right to have that opinion.... Dont mean to be antagonistic but it's utter bollox in my humble opinion. 50 quid on 20 bookies plus the exchanges. The price would shorten, but it is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread Lars. If Windsor Palace was a pacemaker then why was Robin Hood also put in the race ? Was that a pacemaker for the pacemaker ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread 50 quid on 20 bookies plus the exchanges. The price would shorten' date=' but it is possible.[/quote'] We will agree to disagree! Strongly disagree ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaostheorie Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread We will agree to disagree! Strongly disagree ;) no offence, mate. Maybe you are right. I am still new to the game. Betting on horses since October. But i have already placed large bets (several hundred €) without the price moving noticeably. But i must admit that it was on much shorter odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread Lars. If Windsor Palace was a pacemaker then why was Robin Hood also put in the race ? Was that a pacemaker for the pacemaker ? To ensure that the strong pace that SNA was perceived to need could be maintained as long as possible? It was 66/1 - u can't get money on at 66/1 and not get noticed..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread no offence, mate. Maybe you are right. I am still new to the game. Betting on horses since October. But i have already placed large bets (several hundred €) without the price moving noticeably. But i must admit that it was on much shorter odds. Best of Luck to you Chaos. Did manage a bookies for years but that doesn't make your opinion any less valid than mine. Yours is just wrong this time! Mine is wrong on the vast majority of my bets in the last fortnight! Including in that race btw! Was on Murtughs mount to place! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread Am done. But i know one thing, Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor & The O.Brien's are all sleeping peaceful tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaostheorie Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread Thanks, best of luck to you,too. I am always glad to learn something. The main reason i joined this forum is to change opinions,discuss and to learn. Also i don't think that somebody manipulated the 1000 Guineas. I think that the majority of group races are as clean as it get. But i have my doubts in this particular race, because as i already mentioned the credibility of SNA is not damaged, and it is a win-win situation. But maybe i am wrong, otherwise the odds would have reflected that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread Thanks, best of luck to you,too. I am always glad to learn something. The main reason i joined this forum is to change opinions,discuss and to learn. Also i don't think that somebody manipulated the 1000 Guineas. I think that the majority of group races are as clean as it get. But i have my doubts in this particular race, because as i already mentioned the credibility of SNA is not damaged, and it is a win-win situation. But maybe i am wrong, otherwise the odds would have reflected that. SNA's credibility has been damaged because in 10 years time on paper it looks like he couldn't win a Gr3 ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaostheorie Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread SNA's credibility has been damaged because in 10 years time on paper it looks like he couldn't win a Gr3 ! I think not. If they look at the odds of the winner they will soon discover that something unusual happened. They just have to watch the race. And i think the will watch every race when the make the decision, which involves a great ammount of money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread For those who believe they had a punt , just imagine what Sir Mark Prescott would do if he the same horses at his disposal. He would win every major handicap in the racing calendar. The fact you rarely see AOB's horses in major handicaps tells you they are not into landing major touches. The only major handicap I can remember AOB winning is the Ebor with Mediterean and that must be at least 10 years ago maybe more. With the amount of Gr3 /2 horses he goes through he could have won it each year since. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread I think not. If they look at the odds of the winner they will soon discover that something unusual happened. They just have to watch the race. And i think the will watch every race when the make the decision' date=' which involves a great ammount of money.[/quote'] I see you are 23 so I will use recent examples. Zarkava and Sea The Stars were unbeaten at 2/3 and retired at the end of their 3YO season. These horses were deemed champions and constistant. SNA had similar potential but win loss in the 2000 Guineas wrecked his stud value , so they are trying to repair the damage done by winning as many top races as they can with him.The fact he lost today in a Gr3 looks like he is not consistant therefore losing a little credibility. If he was unbeaten at 4 they would have retired him , which is the reason why he's racing this year. Losing was not on the agenda today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread I can't quite believe what I'm reading tonight from a couple of you, and I know it may seem quite offensive to say you're "bonkers" and the like, but the stuff you've come up with tonight is absolutely ludicrous, bordering on the defamatory and quite plainly wrong. The fact is, that SNA was given an easy time of it by Joseph O'Brien today for the most part because they'd thought he'd absolutely hack up. The field wasn't that great, Sharestan is rated 108 and probably capable of a bit better, but the field was hardly full of brilliant types. Windsor Palace was rated 99, can set decent fractions in front and is at least genuine, but hadn't won since 2007 and that included in races that he would have had a chance in, including in a handicap behind Sharestan in March, off a mark of 95! The notion that Windsor Palace had been plotted for this race that Aidy and Jimmy are suggesting is quite frankly, the most silly thing I've ever heard. You're giving Aidan O'Brien almost godlike status, he's a brilliant horseman, and will perhaps go down as one of the best ever (just see my post on the 1000 Guineas thread, his theory on stalls is probably the main reason for his second string filly winning so comfortably). But, for you to think that he could be confident about a 98 rated handicapper winning a Group 3 race, with a top-class 1m4f+ horse in attendance alongside another who had the beating of him this season (30l), then you're mental. The thing regarding starting prices and "private bookmakers" has been corrected by Erhaab, Private bookmakers don't run their own little private markets do they? They'd have to do some trading to cover some "big bets" that connections of Windsor Palace have allegedly landed today, and where would them bets go? The big bookmakers and therefore lowering the starting price. Second/Third strings do win races, look at Godolphin (where betting isn't really on connections minds, work-riders often know more than the trainers do at the early stages of a horse's career with the Godolphin stable (that is actually a fact), especially as they have so many horses spread over so many stables, they find it difficult to reasonably assess juveniles/young horses against each other in a race, so that's why the red-caps often win. In handicaps too, seemingly lower strings win, sometimes an upturn in performance is expected and second string colours are put on to get a better price, other times it may just be that the performance is a surprise. Horses aren't machines and can run better/worse than the form you're suggesting. But comparing these incidents to today or yesterday, where you're saying that Homecoming Queen was expected to get close to Maybe and they landed some big bets in the process is completely rubbish. Maybe's failure to win would have lost them plenty in potential fees for her progeny, whilst you could argue that G1 success for Homecoming Queen would increase her value for whatever she produced, those losses are going to count against her in the bloodstock market. As for AOB being on his phone all the time, he's been on the phone plenty of times when Tabor/Magnier etc have been at the course with him, so I don't quite see who'd he be talking to then. This forum tries to promote "good-quality reasoning" and a decent level of quality is tried to be attained, but posts like those above really do knock the forum. They're ill-informed, defamatory, and just against all logic. I can't quite believe that people reasonably thought there was some other explanation in the entry of Windsor Palace other than to set a fierce pace with stablemate Robin Hood, so they'd be at least a reasonable stamina test for SNA to make sure it didn't become a sprint for home. J O'Brien got his tactics wrong, as did Jonny Murtagh, but apart from that, there's nothing to suggest anything else. No signs from the bookmakers who would actual squeal like pigs if they'd taken some bets on Windsor Palace. He was a pacemaker that managed to hang on, nothing more. Just think. Please? Lars, i am entitled to an opinion on the situation. Just because you don't like my opinion, does not give you the right to say what i am saying is bringing the forum down. Get off your high horse lively. What you are saying is that Aidan O Brien and his crew didn't have Homecoming Queen or Windsor Palace backed? If you think that is true, i think your wrong. So that is my opinion, which i am entitled to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread Aidan O'Brien said: ‘He (Windsor Palace) had a good run here the last day (third behind Excelebration) and he's a soft ground horse. We knew St Nicholas Abbey wasn't a heavy ground horse, everyone knows that. ‘Joseph just let him find himself there and it was his first run back after Dubai. He (St Nicholas Abbey) ran a lovely race and we're delighted with him. ‘Sometimes it happens, they don't get through that ground, that's the way it is, that's racing. We are happy with the horse and hopefully he will come forward from it. You'd be happier if he won but he didn't, but there's always another day. The Coronation Cup will be next for him.’ A stewards' inquiry was held into the running and riding of St Nicholas Abbey, and after viewing the video of the race and considering the evidence, the officials noted the explanations offered by both trainer and jockey with reference to the horse being unsuited by the ground. There's your good quality reasoning for my opinion Lars! As you can see above, Aiden said after the race that they knew Windsor Palace was going to be suited by the ground, and they knew SNA was not suited by the ground... Says it all really! You think they backed SNA when the ground didn't suit? :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haystacks Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread Aidan O'Brien & Coolmore are part of a racing/stud operation worth hundreds of millions. And some of you seem to think they are somehow setting up Group races so they can nick a few grand in bets. Simply unreal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread Aidan O'Brien & Coolmore are part of a racing/stud operation worth hundreds of millions. And some of you seem to think they are somehow setting up Group races so they can nick a few grand in bets. Simply unreal. JP Mcmanus is worth hundreds of millions. Why does he bother backing horses? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Just for the fun I would imagine Aidy... Absolutely agree u r entitled to your opinion btw - have no interest in dispute - but the Coolmore business alone is worth millions and millions. He bid for an estate in Dorset nearby at 125mill recently!! I guess when u have that much money you'll do anything for a thrill!! Including punting I'd imagine.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: The Jockey Thread I am not going to say they definately backed Windsor. But i do honestly believe they knew SNA was not going to win and that Windsor had a good chance... We will never know if they back the horses or not, but for me too many of his "good-things" get turned over and get beat by a stable-mate for it to be a coincidence. I will leave it at that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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