Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June

[Jenspm]

Sorry guys, I'm on a PC where it's impossible to paste odds. I'll update the OP with odds later today, but for now you can find them yourselves at www.odds-comparison.co.uk

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June FK Lyn v Strømsgodset Strømsgodset @ 1.75 - bet365 I don't think these odds will last for long. Two teams that were bottom of the form and confidence charts 5 days ago, but with that sweet sweet win at home to league leaders Tromsø this week-end, Strømsgodset have gotten that lift they, as well as the supporters, needed. Strømsgodset's home field isn't far from Lyn's, and I expect a nice atmosphere with a lot of Godset supporters turning up after that Tromsø-win. Lyn are notorious for having the least and worst supporters of any team in Norway, so don't be surprised if the Godset fans win the singing battle. Lyn are, as always, in an economic mess, and their recent form is dire - five straight losses in the leagues second highest division, and in position for yet another relegation. Last round they lost 2-0 to highly average side Alta, the round before they lost 2-4 at home to relegation candidates Follo. Worth noting is that Strømsgodset are generally poor away, and haven't won away this season, but I think the supporters are ready to make them feel at home in this one. Strømsgodset away in the Top Division: 0-1-5. Lyn at home in the division under: 1-1-5. Not only are they a better team with better players, but Strømsgodset are clearly on a rise, while Lyn are staring at relegation a division further down.

[Toffeeboy]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June

FK Lyn v Strømsgodset Strømsgodset @ 1.75 - bet365 I don't think these odds will last for long. Two teams that were bottom of the form and confidence charts 5 days ago, but with that sweet sweet win at home to league leaders Tromsø this week-end, Strømsgodset have gotten that lift they, as well as the supporters, needed. Strømsgodset's home field isn't far from Lyn's, and I expect a nice atmosphere with a lot of Godset supporters turning up after that Tromsø-win. Lyn are notorious for having the least and worst supporters of any team in Norway, so don't be surprised if the Godset fans win the singing battle. Lyn are, as always, in an economic mess, and their recent form is dire - five straight losses in the leagues second highest division, and in position for yet another relegation. Last round they lost 2-0 to highly average side Alta, the round before they lost 2-4 at home to relegation candidates Follo. Worth noting is that Strømsgodset are generally poor away, and haven't won away this season, but I think the supporters are ready to make them feel at home in this one. Strømsgodset away in the Top Division: 0-1-5. Lyn at home in the division under: 1-1-5. Not only are they a better team with better players, but Strømsgodset are clearly on a rise, while Lyn are staring at relegation a division further down.

Thank you for beating me to this pick! I managed to get them around evens with my local bookie which was unbelievable value. I'm looking forward to this game (as a Evertonian) to see how Marcus Pedersen does because supposedly one of our Scandinavian scouts is watching him tomorrow. How the young lad responds to it will be crucial because Moyes has a habit of picking up gems from lower leagues (no disrespect here). There's a lot of matches and the one that sprung to me was the Haugesund vs Bryne. I can't believe Bryne are so long! They've destroyed teams since getting trounced 5-0 at Tromsdalen. 27 goals in 7 matches and every single of those games won by half-time which is a very interesting stat. Yes I know the opposition will be different in Haugesund but it's worth looking into surely. :hope

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June Yeah, I'll be looking into that one as well. On Marcus Pedersen, scouts from Everton, West Brom, Fulham, Newcastle, Heerenven among others were scouting him this week-end (I heard there was a total of 12-15 scouts), and he definitely didn't play a bad game. Worth noting: Strømsgodset will be missing Jo Inge Berget, Madsen, Nordkvelle, Rankovic and Nystrøm - still, they should have enough to win it.

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June Time to bring out the cup-bombs, me thinks. Starting with the one you mentioned, Toffeeboy. Haugesund v Bryne Bryne X2 double chance @ 2.35 - bodog Bryne are on fire atm, and are on a 7 game win streak (5 league games) after being walloped 5-0 at Tromsdalen. 5-0-0 and 20-4 in the last five speaks wonders, and they should be FULL of confidence coming into this one. They famously beat Bodø-Glimt, a solid home team, away by the massive scoreline of 5-0 two rounds ago, and once again scored 5 this week-end in a 5-1 victory over Nybergsund. Haugesund? Well, they were completely out-played and humiliated by Vålerenga, beaten heavily 5-2, and had troubles in the second round of the cup, beating Vard Haugesund only 2-1 after being down 1-0, and scoring in the 71st and 78th minutes. Bryne on the other hand, once again scored 5 to walz over Stavanger 5-1 and progress to this third round. I think Bryne can at least grab a draw here, and I wouldn't be surprised if they win either. Pelu is still injured, as is Sørum, which means Haugesund loses their main attacking force up front.

[thebambers]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June Stromgodset win doubled with a Bryne draw no bet pays 2.58 at bet365. As I know little about this league thats the bet for me with small stakes. Good luck guys :)

[soundingstylish]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June

Time to bring out the cup-bombs, me thinks. Starting with the one you mentioned, Toffeeboy. Haugesund v Bryne Bryne X2 @ 2.35 - bodog

4.50 @ Bet365

[lurie]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June yenspm! thank u for the great info! but....with all those missings of stromsgodset the value is not on them. i'm not sure at all that they gonna win it and the odds didn't got down.... gl anyway.

[DonJuan]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June Hello. Jenspm great preview. Jenspm I need info about 2 other games Sandefjord - Moss and Lov Ham - Aalesunds. I think Moss+0.75 , Bryne +1 , Lov Ham +0.75 are good bets but i need info please help me. I think also these 3 games will end in a draw. Thanks very much. Good Luck to all.:cheers

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June

4.50 @ Bet365

It's a double-chance mate, not a straight win :) I'll update my post to make it clearer :ok

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June

yenspm! thank u for the great info! but....with all those missings of stromsgodset the value is not on them. i'm not sure at all that they gonna win it and the odds didn't got down.... gl anyway.

Bet365, which I tipped from, shortened from 1.75 to 1.66 after posting.. Though you're right, generally the odds haven't shortened too much, best odds down to 1.72. I still think there's value in the odds taken, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree ;)

[luegofuego]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June actually, they're readily available for 1.79... that other pick you posted has gotten longer too. dutching the X and 2 gives 2.425 right now, although backing the X feels incredibly icky with a team like that - their last ten games have contained FORTYFIVE GOALS. i'd just take the long shot on Bryne at 5.40 and cross my fingers.

[ewana]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June

Time to bring out the cup-bombs, me thinks. Starting with the one you mentioned, Toffeeboy. Haugesund v Bryne Bryne X2 double chance @ 2.35 - bodog Bryne are on fire atm, and are on a 7 game win streak (5 league games) after being walloped 5-0 at Tromsdalen. 5-0-0 and 20-4 in the last five speaks wonders, and they should be FULL of confidence coming into this one. They famously beat Bodø-Glimt, a solid home team, away by the massive scoreline of 5-0 two rounds ago, and once again scored 5 this week-end in a 5-1 victory over Nybergsund. Haugesund? Well, they were completely out-played and humiliated by Vålerenga, beaten heavily 5-2, and had troubles in the second round of the cup, beating Vard Haugesund only 2-1 after being down 1-0, and scoring in the 71st and 78th minutes. Bryne on the other hand, once again scored 5 to walz over Stavanger 5-1 and progress to this third round. I think Bryne can at least grab a draw here, and I wouldn't be surprised if they win either. Pelu is still injured, as is Sørum, which means Haugesund loses their main attacking force up front.

Was about to do a write up on this match but you beat me to it.;) Agree with you 100%. Bryne are scoring goals for fun at the moment and seem to have a real target man in Marius Helle who has scored in almost every game this season. Also, Haugesund were promoted last season and will be aiming to avoid relegation this season. You often see newly promoted sides struggle when coming up against lower opposition the following season so hopefully this happens today. Duoble chance is a cracking shout at 2.35. I am tempted to push the boat out and go for the away win at 4.50 however.

[luegofuego]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June jesus guys, do u hate value? they're 5.40 if you line shop even the slightest!!!!

[ewana]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June

jesus guys' date=' do u hate value? they're 5.40 if you line shop even the slightest!!!![/quote'] Its more an issue of convenience mate. I have a load of funds with Bet365 so its them I use. It could have been worse though if I had funds with someone like Ladbrokes who are the masters of shite odds!

[luegofuego]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June alright that's understandable i guess. but the question about backing two separate bets on the same bookie still should raise alarm bells - the chances of both of them being +EV on the same book are close to nil - and in this case, 45 goals in ten games? you sure it's wise to hedge the X here? I'm having a hard time imagining this game being a 0-0 affair...

[Aquile]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June Bryne's odds seems good but on the other hand, lower division team and away, and Haugesund lost shamefully last match, maybe this can effect positively, which scares me. I am not sure whether to try Bryne-draw or not. Btw, I need information about these following 3, if anyones knows something - Sarpsborg vs. Honefoss - Lov Ham vs. Aalesund - Bodo/Glimbt vs. Ranheim ( Bodo's odds seems falling down, maybe because Bodo cares cup and Ranheim doesnt, so I need info.)

[TOTTI3]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June Lyn>Stromsgodset=1X(2.00) bet365 stake 3/10 Lyn occupies the last place in Adeccoligaen with 11 games played and 8 points with a score of w2-d2-l7 goals scored 16 goals conceded 27. The last game played away from Lyn lost 2-0 to High. Stromsgodset occupies the ninth position in the Tippeligaen standings with 14 games played and 19 points with a score of w6 d1-l7-21 goals conceded 30 goals scored. The last home match since Stromsgodset won 2-1 with Tromso. Preview: Stromsgodset training has many problems such as Kim Andre Madsen (defender), Fredrik Nordkvell (midfielder), Steffen Nystrom (forward), Jo Inge Berget (forward) and Petar Rnkovic (striker) are injured. Instead the defender Glenn Andersen is suspended. Lyn seems to have no problems in training. My prediction is 1X. :hope:hope:hope

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June

actually' date=' they're readily available for 1.79... that other pick you posted has gotten longer too. dutching the X and 2 gives 2.425 right now, although backing the X feels incredibly icky with a team like that - their last ten games have contained FORTYFIVE GOALS. i'd just take the long shot on Bryne at 5.40 and cross my fingers.[/quote'] meh, they go up and down - at the time of writing my previous post they were 1.66. Why we're discussing this, I don't know, only adds value now. As for your point about the draw not worth backing - good point. However, Haugesund haven't lost at home in almost a year, and tend to play somewhat destructive football. I think they'll continue with this here, what with the visitors' current goal scoring form and VÃ¥lerenga's show in the week-end - AND add to that that they're missing two strikers and know they'll need to concede few to win. I didn't have a chance to watch the full game against VÃ¥lerenga, but in previous matches everything in attack has gone through Pelu. Their manager isn't one that struts a lot of confidence. Prior to the VÃ¥lerenga match, he was asked "Give us one good argument why Haugesund should beat VÃ¥lerenga tonight." His reply? "Uuuuh, I have no idea really." This lack of confidence in his own squad could in this case end in an overly defensive damage controlling tactic, hoping to grab a goal or two but focusing on keeping Bryne at bay. This could either A) Be succesful and they win 1/2-0, B) End in a bore 0-0/1-1 draw C) Give Bryne a chance to get an early goal, thus making Haugesund push forward and give us an entertaining match or D) Bryne fight and fight and finally get that winning goal late in the game It feels strange talking like this about a game between two teams in different divisions, but I have a feeling Haugesund will fall into the trap of being overly defensive, thus upping the chance of the draw, and, indeed, 0-0. You may be right - maybe there is more value in the straight away win - we'll never know :)

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June Apparently not, lol. Haugesund win convincingly 6-1, luckily Strømsgodset do as planned and win 4-2. But wow, so many goals! Only three were under 2.5, not surprisingly Tromsø, Kongsvinger and Bodø/Glimt's matches.. Total loss of -0.25 on the day. This round's cup-bombs: Follo - Lillestrøm 4-2 Molde - Songdal 1-3 Løv-Ham - Aalesund 2-1 Tromsø enter extra time with Tromsdalen, Stabæk with Tønsberg (who knocked out Vålerenga last round)

[allthethings]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June This is just one round of one competition, but I kept track of the odds movement from yesterday to today...picking handicaps, if you picked with the public, you went 3-8 (Tromsdalen game had no odds movement at my book). Two games (0-2) jumped by a half-goal in HC...Aalesund went from -0.5 to -1 (loss) and Stabaek from -2 to -2.5 (loss). Five games (2-3) the odds on HC changed from underdog to favorite...Bodo (loss), Nybergsund, Lyn (loss), Molde (loss) and Fredrikstad. Four games (1-3) the favorites against the HC became bigger favorites...Lillestrom (loss), Bryne (loss), Odd and Moss (loss). The three games in which the public lumped on the most (in order, Stabaek, Aalesund, Bryne) were all losses by the favorites. Next-biggest lumping on was Odd, which beat the -2 HC handily, and Lillestrom, which was a 1.5-goal favorite and lost 2-4. This is as I said just one day in one competition, but it shows what following the public can do to you.

[TOTTI3]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June

Lyn>Stromsgodset=1X(2.00) bet365 stake 3/10 Lyn occupies the last place in Adeccoligaen with 11 games played and 8 points with a score of w2-d2-l7 goals scored 16 goals conceded 27. The last game played away from Lyn lost 2-0 to High. Stromsgodset occupies the ninth position in the Tippeligaen standings with 14 games played and 19 points with a score of w6 d1-l7-21 goals conceded 30 goals scored. The last home match since Stromsgodset won 2-1 with Tromso. Preview: Stromsgodset training has many problems such as Kim Andre Madsen (defender), Fredrik Nordkvell (midfielder), Steffen Nystrom (forward), Jo Inge Berget (forward) and Petar Rnkovic (striker) are injured. Instead the defender Glenn Andersen is suspended. Lyn seems to have no problems in training. My prediction is 1X. :hope:hope:hope

:wall

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June

This is just one round of one competition, but I kept track of the odds movement from yesterday to today...picking handicaps, if you picked with the public, you went 3-8 (Tromsdalen game had no odds movement at my book). Two games (0-2) jumped by a half-goal in HC...Aalesund went from -0.5 to -1 (loss) and Stabaek from -2 to -2.5 (loss). Five games (2-3) the odds on HC changed from underdog to favorite...Bodo (loss), Nybergsund, Lyn (loss), Molde (loss) and Fredrikstad. Four games (1-3) the favorites against the HC became bigger favorites...Lillestrom (loss), Bryne (loss), Odd and Moss (loss). The three games in which the public lumped on the most (in order, Stabaek, Aalesund, Bryne) were all losses by the favorites. Next-biggest lumping on was Odd, which beat the -2 HC handily, and Lillestrom, which was a 1.5-goal favorite and lost 2-4. This is as I said just one day in one competition, but it shows what following the public can do to you.

Furthermore, 'the public' in this sense is often foreigners stressed by the fact that there's nothing to bet on before the world cup, and thus just lump money on the favourites of some Norwegian cup games to pass time. Note that I'm not talking about the forum users of the Punters Lounge, a lot of you know (surprisingly) quite a bit about this league :ok

[Toffeeboy]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June Funny round and a lot of 'cupsets'.. I somehow managed to place only one bet which was Stromsgodset who got the job done eventually. I would have incurred a loss or might just have broken even had my girlfriend not dragged me out the house! Jenspm is right here in saying that a lot of people just bet on the favourites without any knowledge what so ever. Start tonight look a bit short so it's a no bet for me.

[Toffeeboy]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June On second thoughts any bets for tonight Jens? ;)

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June Not really.. If anything I might do a cheeky punt on Fyllingen HT @ 10. Actually, I will be betting on Fyllingen to win on a (3-0) handicap @ 1.95, but these odds are only available on a Norwegian government run bookie (Norsk Tipping) restricted to Norwegians.. To compare Fylling +2.5 is 1.65 at bet365..

[Toffeeboy]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June Jens do you know how seriously Start take this competition? I know there are some teams in European cup competitions who put out their youth or reserves. And is there going to be a break in Norway for the World Cup by any chance?

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June The Cup is taken seriously by pretty much all teams in Norway, and both Viking and Start will definitely be playing their best teams available as, as you say, this is the last game before a long World Cup break, so no point in resting players :)

[Toffeeboy]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June Sorry to be a pain again mate but my Norwegian is dreadful haha :lol I can't find the injury list for Start and not sure whether I should take the handicap on them? Shed any light?

[Jenspm]

Re: Norwegian Cup 9-10th of June

Sorry to be a pain again mate but my Norwegian is dreadful haha :lol I can't find the injury list for Start and not sure whether I should take the handicap on them? Shed any light?

Goodson, Borgersen, Haraldsen, Årst, Fevang and Branko are all missing for Start, but they should still have enough fire power to clear a handicap.. Starting line-up:

Kenneth Høie Hunter Freeman - Avni Pepa - Jesper Mathisen - Rolf Daniel Vikstøl Christian Bolaños - Solomon Owello - Petter Bruer Hansen - Espen Børufsen Christer Kleiven - Mads Stokkelien

I won't be betting on this one, but good luck to whoever does :)