How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

[ajaxAgain]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) It's the bit about not believing the bet had the slightest chance winning and that not being the reason for the bet that got me intrigued. If you don't expect it to win, what's the point? Other than to somehow gain a postion in the market which somehow you can later exploit. Me = confused!

[uknowsit]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

Do you think there is "value" in betting that Moggis and Barrybazcam are one and the same person ? :p

Judging by th similarity in over use of commas I think, you may, be, correct

[Shy10ck]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

It's the bit about not believing the bet had the slightest chance winning and that not being the reason for the bet that got me intrigued. If you don't expect it to win' date=' what's the point? Other than to somehow gain a postion in the market which somehow you can later exploit. Me = confused![/quote'] If you bet enough accus, then some of them will seem to have a very small winning chance. But as a part of a system, these bets are needed to guarantee the overall winning probabilities. It could be something like the above reasoning he mysteriously is implying???

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) overuse of commas!!!??? gosh,I am gonna have a complex now ajaxagain,I dont understand your confusion,surely there can only be 2 logical reasons to place a long-term bet....I can write no more...

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) oh wait,there are actually 3 logical reasons...but 1 is purely to gain the most entertainment for each pound bet

[barrybazcam]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) defo not the same person as moggis,wish i was financially but alas not.i'm glad there has been a positive response to my post for both moggis and all the rest who are still posting.i have been a betting shop manager for 20 years and have seen many different forms of bets and so called systems in most sports and horse racing and i can safely state that what he does is the only idea i have stolen and used myself,as i said before to much smaller stakes,and made money.value is getting 100/1 spurs to beat hearts 5 0,when most go 66/1,,,value is not betting crawley at 5/4,,value is betting over 4.5/5.5 goals in dumbarton games and using oddschecker for a 2/3 point difference,moggis believes my bets are lucky.we are at the opposite ends of the scale on betting,but if i had a choice on what system i had to use for the rest of my life!!!!! what moggis does is a no brainer,thankfully i do both!!! :cheers good luck everybody in your quest for profit,i wish you well:cheers

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) this is a test as i am not sure if i am currently allowed to post..please delete

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) ok,sorry mod. Barry,what do you mean value is not betting crawley at 5/4-5/4 to do what? also,dont make the mistake of assuming that because spurs won 5-0 this proves the price was value!it doesnt! It is not true to say that I think your bets are lucky.What I think(nay,am 80-90% certain)is that over the last 18 months you have had more than your fair share of luck. Most bets you do are small stakes for big odds and I believe your r.o.i for the last 18 months must be something like 40%?or even more?(and thats not including antepost bets). if so,either a part of that is down to luck OR you are(as I mention to people)one of the best soccer bettors in the country....only time will tell. anyway thanks for the support but I dont think anyone actually thinks we are the same person.Apart from anything else,Id look stupid in a kilt!

[ajaxAgain]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Still none the wiser.

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) I am genuinely sorry to read that ajaxAgain since I would love nothing more than to explain it to you. I am very much hoping for this to be my last post on here for a while. I must say I am very disappointed that the mathematician hasnt contacted me as I am intrigued to see this proof he mentioned.I dont suppose,as a mathematician yourself,you know what he was referring to? I have indicated that if I win a certain amount this season I will be inviting all posters on this thread to a get-together. I would be most intrigued to meet any of you...but, to the best of my ability to estimate,there is a 50/50 chance I will fail to hit my target. Finally,I would encourage anyone to at least dabble in a series of antepost accas between now and may. (If you stick to 4-ways and dont put more than 2% of your bank on any bet til the last 2 or 3 games)you might be surprised at the results.... GOOD LUCK:cheers

[v-zero]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! a couple of days ago I received a PM from a member on this site requesting that I give him details of my antepost acca bets. from something he wrote,I became curious as to the content of the last few messages on this thread,.......so I have just read them for the first time... and....OMG..........I am considering whether you are even worth replying to.......for now..may I ask the mathematician the following: do you live in london?-if so I would very much like to meet you for a drink and to discuss this. So far as w hill taking bets from a big winner is concerned.....let me point out that only coral and bet365 take most of my bets....and even they restrict me from february onwards. APPARENTLY,it is babyish of me to ask any of you to put your money where your mouth is-even on the "best betting forum"(see the thread thats locked). how very,very convenient for you all! AS A MATTER OF FACT,my target for this season is now 200% profit-although I am the first to admit that its only a 50/50 chance that I will get this....

I didn't see this post, so that is why I did not respond to it, apologies. I don't live in London, and haven't been in London since last summer, so I cannot offer the opportunity of a meet up. What I think you are doing is antepost betting combined with intelligent hedging, but that is just my best guess. This method certainly would have a great chance of paying off well for years, and might seem to be an invincible method, but it suffers from the same issues as all other bets, it is simply far more gradual. As for the proof, I am not particularly interested in wasting my time with it, but I may sit down and produce it at some point - it is very likely that it is somewhere floating in the ether of the internet, however.

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) thanks for that,I was still on here due to my incredulity at the argument going on on the other thread concerning multiples v singles. I appreciate you wouldnt want to waste your time producing it so instead perhaps I can ask the odd question-as you can imagine,I am very eager to find it. firstly,though,I must say that your overall comments are,strangely enough,most intriguing/pleasing! You actually state that this method "would certainly have a great chance of paying off well for years..." GOSH!!!,compared to most other comments,thats actually just about the most welcome thing I could possibly have expected anyone to write-let alone a mathematician!!!! If I was to write a book,for heavens sake,I rather think that quote would go straight on the cover:D I havent gone over all my posts so can someone tell me that I claimed that this method is invincible!!!?? In 13 years I have lost 4 times(all AGONISINGLY close and still painful)so I am bemused by the invincible quote.* what I have absolutely no doubt about however,is that this is the best way to make money from betting on football. As far as those questions are concerned,I am so surprised that I would like time to think....indeed I may ask them a few months from now. thank you very,very much *in 1 of those years chesterfield,who I had backed from 16s to 1/2 suddenly were found to be being dishonest and were docked 9 points

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) I should explain that obviously I am doing antepost betting and there is hedging going on...but theres a "bit" more to it than that...like how exactly do my original bets overcome the 30% overounds etc,etc

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) SUFFERING SUCCATASH!!!a terrible thought has occurred to me! I suppose now people will say we are the same person!!:\

[ajaxAgain]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Moggis - what markets are we talking about here, outright win, top 4/6, promotion, relegation,... combinations of these?

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) ajaxAgain I fear that if I start answering questions like that it will only be a matter of time before westernskies comes on to reaccuse me of enjoying the hijacking of this thread to facilitate a "guessing-game",so may I enquire why you ask?

[ajaxAgain]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) just interested if you feel there are traits in any markets in particular that would lend themselves to antepost accas or whether you pick and choose depending on the season. I take your point re hijacking the thread, sry all - once my brain starts ticking its hard to turn off and I dont have any poker to distract me at the moment!

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) well,as you can imagine,this has been a steep learning- curve and one of the lessons that I have only just finally learnt(about 5 years too late)is not to include relegation. As I previouly said,I first started doing these bets in order to exploit the value that was clearly available in the place part of each-way accas. but nowadays I include a lot of promotion markets...BUT each season really is unique. for example last season including qpr,brighton and chesterfield in outright markets was for several weeks de rigeur

[goalio]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Hi there, I am quite new to this forum and especially to this thread. I've read a lot of posts in this thread but not all so forgive me if this is already discussed. I think most of the value will be found in the early odds, but at that time there is also a lot of time left for the event to start, so a lot of thing can happen in that time that can influence the result. What do you think is the best time to make your (value) picks. And another problem might be that some of the bookies who come out with their odds early, might have small limits as well. An example (I am mainly betting on Dutch Eredivisie). Yesterday in the morning I looked into the odds for the next Eredivisie round . Even without further research I saw value in Feyenoord @ 1.55 and AZ @ 2.05. At the end of the day when more bookies came out with their odds and possibly some bets were made, the odds slashed down to 1.35 for Feyenoord and 1.88 for AZ. And if nothing strange happens I think they will stay around this level or even lower a bit more during the week. So, my question is, how do you deal with this? Just take them immediately early in the week with the risk to miss a lot of info about what happens in the week (injuries, problems a.s.o.). Thanks for your help!

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) yes goalio you should take advantage of any early value. ok so a lot can happen afterwards but this is as likely to be in your favour as against you...