AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

[ozgamer]

Centrebet odds. Opening odds in brackets came a few hrs earlier than usual. MELBOURNE ------------ 3.90 (3.70) ----- +24.5 WESTERN BULLDOGS ---- 1.26 (1.27) ----- -24.5 ESSENDON ------------ 1.77 (1.80) ------ -3.5 PORT ADELAIDE ------- 2.06 (2.00) ------ +3.5 WEST COAST ---------- 1.76 (1.73) ----- -4.5 HAWTHORN ------------ 2.07 (2.10) ----- +4.5 COLLINGWOOD --------- 1.20 (1.20) ---- -29.5 NORTH MELB ---------- 4.50 (4.50) ----- +29.5 BRISBANE ------------ 1.47 (1.38) ------ -14.5 FREMANTLE ----------- 2.70 (3.00) ----- +14.5 GEELONG ------------- 1.26 (1.33) ----- -24.5 SYDNEY -------------- 3.90 (3.25) ----- +24.5 ADELAIDE ------------ 1.24 (1.38) ----- -24.5 RICHMOND ------------ 4.10 (3.00) ---- +24.5 ST KILDA ------------ 1.41 (1.50) ----- -16.5 CARLTON ------------- 2.81 (2.55) ---- +16.5 A return to the MCG might see the Dees (with mega-huge-superstar future AA defender James Frawley) keep this close against the Dogs who aren't cutting it atm. Dogs should get Boyd back. Possibly Hill. Dees lose Pettrd and with lack of suitable talls might be forced to play small. Like the Dees @ the line @ the G but will wait and see. Port @ $2.00 & $2.06 Bombers @ $1.77???!!!!! Oh dear. I know it's @ Etihad but that's such an over-reaction. I had already taken Port @ $2.00 and when the lines came out they went out to $2.06! So I took them again. Do I even need to explain? The Dons might lose Welsh and Hille to suspension as well. BONUS! Wet Toast and the Hawks. Hmm. 2 awful teams with plenty of excuses in the press. I think the Eagles win. They should win even 6 days after a tough Derby and w/o Masten (injury) and Embley (dead cert to be suspended) and make better use of their ruck but hard to know what Hawks team will be sent over with talk about players getting axed. No involvement here but maybe a play on the under total? Pies should beat Nth. Lions are expected to bounce back hard @ home after 2 disappointing losses. Dockers should be feeling the pinch after the Derby + travel. Geelong over Sydney with Gabett and Scarlett to return @ Skilled. ???? on J Bolton and Mumford wrt to getting suspended. Crows should beat Tigers. $1.38 -> $1.24. Now that's showing faith :puke Saints-Blues will be interesting @ Etihad. Blues are a chance here and I like their price. I'll be waiting on the teams tho.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

Crows should beat Tigers. $1.38 -> $1.24. Now that's showing faith :puke

You're not wrong oz!! :lol Crows have to win don't they, but good lord...2 teams who can't score v. 2 teams who can't stop anyone. Tiges could just get lucky if the Crows kick 4.20 which is entirely possible. You'd have to have some pretty big kahuna's to get involved in this one. :cow:nana I was shocked to see Melbourne @ 3.90 (+24.5)...just a weird feeling to actually consider the Dee's 'value' :unsure ...but they have to be here don't they? Not sure if I'll take the points here, but definately looking forward to seeing a total. 2 surprisingly very good defensive teams! Only Coll, St.K, Freo and Syd have allowed less shots (than both), and only Saints and Syd allow less shots per I50!! Since the start of 2009 (7 games) Dogs have allowe an av. of 72.5 ppg @ MCG, Melbourne just 75 ppg in their first 5 there this year. Doggies have been loose, and I'm sure they'll be keen to get off the leash after last week, but Melbourne backline specifically is operating very well. Roos showed last week teams can easily stifle Melbourne run by clogging the middle (easier at the Dome I know). A history of high scoring meetings, hopefully produces a highish total here. +24.5 does still look a lot... :\ Happy with the Eagles winning too...1.80 looks nice. Sometimes it's best not to question, but just continue to go against one of the worst teams in the AFL. (Yeah, yeah, everyone knows I'm no good at psych...maybe the Hawks will be fired up this week??) Eagles had 26 shots at home against both Port and Ess...right on their av's...Hawks allowing 28 shots on the season. WC play a very tight game at home too...allowing just 43 I50's in 3 games!...bad back 6 numbers (only Crows and Rich worse), but given the Hawks are 2nd worst at scoring (2.23) behind the Tiges in the last 5 games it probably won't matter that much. Forward/backline numbers are almost identical between the teams, but a +9 to -3 I50 count, and a +1 to -9 clearance count should mean the ball spends a hell of a lot more time down one end than the other. Hawks have allowed the 2nd most marks I50 too (behind Tiges again :lol), so even the impotent Eagles should score enough here to get the W. Oh, Hawks have lost 6 of last 7 on the road...inc. 'home' game in Tas. Oh, oh, and Eagles won this meeting last year @ 3.20 dogs. :cheers Like the Power in theory oz, but not sure I can trust them on the road. 2 away games so far have produced 34 (WC) and 37 (Gee) I50's!! They've also lost their last 5 in Melbourne...2 of which they were 1.40 favs. Just can't get a decent read on Essendon at all...Carlton game to Collingwood game...no consistancy at all from any aspect really! BOL mate, hope the right teams show up on the night! :) Collingwood win, but 5 goals looks about right?... ...the team with the biggest I50 dif (+13!!), v. the team with the 2nd worst (-4). Kangas will do a better job defensively than recent teams the Pies have played, but don't think they have the firepower to keep up. Actually, now I look...10+ shots dif on the night won't surprise...was 30-20 to Sydney (in Melb)... ...not sure if the Coll/Melb game is still worrying me slightly... :\ 1.20 does look a fair price...not sure if I'll bite at the spread. Rest of the week looks tough... Freo scoring at just 2.18 on the road (1.53 at home!!)...they just might win the I50 battle given Carlton did (50-48) @ Brisbane, but the Lions do play solid D at home... ...and as good as Freo have been they've only played 2 teams any good at stopping so far (if we count the Eagles at home even!)...23 shots @ St. Kilda, 26 last week, but kicked super straight in both... ...as oz mentioned, long flight off a derby win (albeit a particularly soft one), won't take much for them to have an off game. Surely McGuire wins his challange tomorrow night. Did anyone even think twice about it after seeing it countless times simply for the Bolton injury??! :\ ...even without him (and Merrett), I guess Patful takes Pav and that's about it. (Unless they choose Patful to do a lock-down job on McPhee of course...) Tough to go against Brisbane at home. Geelong at home v. Sydney should be a cracker. NFI what will happen. None. Carlton are a bit like Essendon to me...have no idea what they are going to produce from week to week. Out play Brisbane up there, pump Geelong...get out played by the Crows and lose to Essendon and belted by Collingwood. Beats me! :lol Saints can still run and gun without Riewoldt (see Freo game), without a key forward to worry them (Zac can take Setanta to be sure, to be sure) they just might take the Blues on rather than pile everyone into their back 50 in the first minute of the game and then deny it... :unsure ...Riewoldt did kick 5 last year in a tight one tho. Again, just don't trust either team enough to get inolved. :cheers

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) Wish I'd seen the 1.38 Adelaide! Pettard will be a big out and does Frawley play - concussed on just 6-days? Bullies (maybe by the time the media screws-over every other new premiership hot tip - WBD, Bris, now Collingwood this week, it will be WBD's turn to sneak under the radar by about Sept?) are value at 1.28 IMO, not that I'm really forgiving anyone just yet. Essendon - Hawthorn had a few boys very sore off 6-days rest from Tassie - so Ess form was a lot about opp. I mentioned that this time last week, so still kicking myself for not following through when 2.80 Ess was available :\. Carl were flat as tacks that time, also. Essendon with more outs. Motlop this week? I've been talking myself into Port as well, particuarly if they drift a shade more which may happen. Fremantle (arguably the best finishing team in the comp & hoping it's not too humid), Sydney & Carlton look likely plays for me this round.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

I've been talking myself into Port as well' date=' particuarly if they drift a shade more which may happen.[/quote'] And has. Now $2.15 @ CB. Have I missed something? Because this just looks plain silly. Maybe not Carlton-starting-as drifting-dogs-vs-Crows silly but silly nonetheless. I only wish I held out for that better price :cry

[TazaD]

Played Melbourne +26.5 Rediculous amount of points imho. I'll be there with my gf and the in-laws, pretending to be 100% dog. :ok Becoming more swayed towards Carlton as the days go on...good thing I have another 4 days to think about it! :lol

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

Played Melbourne +26.5 Rediculous amount of points imho. I'll be there with my gf and the in-laws, pretending to be 100% dog. :ok

What a predicament. I will join you ... only on that Melb +26.5 bet ;) Have fun :lol

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

Becoming more swayed towards Carlton as the days go on...good thing I have another 4 days to think about it! :lol

How do we watch this :unsure? Do I knock the top of one or ... :unsure. I'm calling for advice from NRL guys I think?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) Not really been following too much this season, but didn't Saints take the game from the Dogs late? Any idea just how long was remaining when they kicked the winning goal? I typically prefer to oppose teams who win games by extremely narrow margins, particularly if they spent the majority of the last period chasing the game. I find these games generally leads the winners to feeling increased victory euphoria, which is then followed by a natural let down as the mental application and intensity levels used to achieved the win simply can't be sustained. That said, it's an effect I've not really seen translate to the AFL anywhere near as well as it has in some other codes, most likely because skill comprises a higher % of an AFL game than an NRL one. Conversely (again), I thought the Dees were likely to suffer a similar thing last week, simply because the win over the Lions would, for them, be a psychological high that can be tough to back up the following week. Carlton losing the week after beating Geelong and Pies losing a week after beating the Dees by just 1pt probably the other examples that back this train of thought up, though in the latter case I imagine Saints would have been strongly favoured to win that game anyway. It's really too late at night to be asking me to think, Ash.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) ... and Geelong losing (at short odds) immediately after demolishing Port with the who world singing their praises for it. Bulldogs losing to Collingwood (Rd-1) after being declared the premiership hot shot for winning NAB cup, Brisbane losing two in a row as soon as the media switched onto their bandwagon and Collingwood losing to North this week now that they're the medias new flag certainty. Saints were never in it until WBD themeselves lost the unloseable, then Saints talked up their virtues, so yeah, wouldn't surprise if Saints had little hiccup off that, not that they are in great form anyway. Monday night football, Oscar! The question is how do you do it? :beeror no :beer?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) I never had a problem getting fizzed up at lunch time Tuesday's for NFL MNF if that helps. ;) Dogs/Dees total 174.5 is too low to play...will give the books some crdit for this one, although threat of rain probably lopped off a few points.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) What are the thoughts on the Eagles @ what is a - 11.5 line now that Buddy is out? Who will kick goals for the Hawks? or should we hope for a favourable total for the unders? Despite all the talk in the press, there is just way too many negatives against the Hawks here I feel. Clark is out for the Lions and Stiller is in. Meaning the Berger will go solo with likely pinch-hitting from Brennan. Question mark on Fevola with his heel soreness. This is more for Ash then it is for me. Freo's chances have improved but still query how many of the players (esp the young ones - no Cliff Richard jokes plz) have fully recovered from the derby. Edit: now a -12.5 line for the Eagles.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

What are the thoughts on the Eagles @ what is a - 11.5 line now that Buddy is out? Who will kick goals for the Hawks? or should we hope for a favourable total for the unders? Despite all the talk in the press, there is just way too many negatives against the Hawks here I feel. Clark is out for the Lions and Stiller is in. Meaning the Berger will go solo with likely pinch-hitting from Brennan. Question mark on Fevola with his heel soreness. This is more for Ash then it is for me. Freo's chances have improved but still query how many of the players (esp the young ones - no Cliff Richard jokes plz) have fully recovered from the derby. Edit: now a -12.5 line for the Eagles.

I think the odds/'caps are about right on WCE/Hawthorn. I'm not prepared to say Hawthorn won't be capable of serving it up under the circumstances. Don't want to be involved! Give Sandilands some extra minutes rest in the goal square with Staker to mind him is what I suggest :tongue2. :hope

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

I think the odds/'caps are about right on WCE/Hawthorn. I'm not prepared to say Hawthorn won't be capable of serving it up under the circumstances. Don't want to be involved!

WCE-Hawks

Give Sandilands some extra minutes rest in the goal square with Staker to mind him is what I suggest :tongue2. :hope

It would make sense. Lions have a serious lack of talls and I'm pretty sure they will consider Bradley as a 2nd ruckman with Silvagni to miss out.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

It would make sense. Lions have a serious lack of talls and I'm pretty sure they will consider Bradley as a 2nd ruckman with Silvagni to miss out.

Spot on with this one, ozgamer but Brisbane have quickly counter acted by replacing Patfull with Hawksley :\. Seriously, I'm now worried about a Freo complacency factor :hope.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) HAD to be injured, surely!!! I didn't know he was out until just before game time, so didn't really have time to re-evaluate, but I'm guessing Freo, the 'over' and any Pavlich DT bets were wound in late! :cry

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

Spot on with this one' date=' ozgamer but Brisbane have quickly counter acted by replacing Patfull with Hawksley :\. Seriously, I'm now worried about a Freo complacency factor :hope.[/quote'] What's that thing you say Ash? Never in doubt? Nice score there. Lions should have lost by 8-10 goals and are with problems.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) Never feel safe opposing Bris up there but once they got 27 ahead LQ (with Bris two men down) I thought "surely", but ... :notworthy Black was massive for Bris :clap. Thankfully Pavlich can play a little bit also, though :clap. Should be a nice day at Geelong tomorrow. Hope I don't get my head smacked in for wearing my red t-shirt - you should spot me, anyway ;).

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) Carlton +16.5 Going with my initial thoughts. Blues should play to their strengths and keep the Saints honest here.

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

Carlton +16.5 Going with my initial thoughts. Blues should play to their strengths and keep the Saints honest here.

I dont disagree that this is an intriguing game to predict. On the one hand, Carlton with its inconsistency v Saints learning how to be competitive without its biggest star (and doing so reasonably well). How much of the Saints' style of play (widely criticised) can be put down to having had to play three games with six day turn-arounds? Off the back of an 'extended' 10 day break (luxury!) this time, can we expect a rejuvinated Saints to run at Carlton the way they have previously? Carlton could do anything, as we have seen in recent weeks, but the Saints' great record at Etihad + their great recent record against the Blues, tips it for me. By how much? That's anyone's guess. A clear day in Melbourne (so far) - roof may well be open (not sure if there is an AFL policy for night games re this).

[pete]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) Looking at the overs/unders market for this game tonight and does anyone have information on if night games go lower than day games?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) That's a valid argument, saintg1, and I've assessed this game mindful they may gather themselves better on the longer break - perhaps we may even see improved form from Kozy??. However, there is still enough of a query for me as to how well they are really going and how much they're kidding themselves they really beat the Bulldogs. Carlton's 1st game at Docklands is also a factor but they generally go OK here IMO. I've had to think a lot harder with McLean out and Gram in but I've marked Carlton's true chance at 2.56, so have tried them at 3.00 but wouldn't take a cent less. Interestingly 4 of 6 Saints games have been under 15.5 margin. Nil for Carlton. Will Saints bow to pressure/elect to attack more tonight?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) I've just got home, so missed the closing lines, and totals (stupid quasi-Government 'net filters :wall ) I thought it was interesting earlier in the week that Ratten basically called out the Saints, saying he "expected" them to be more attacking this week. Now, I may not be the sharpest couch doctor here... (:unsure)...but to me that smelt pretty badly of "hoping" they would, and I'm pretty sure the Saints would have felt absolutely zero pressure to do so. Don't know the early score, 'cause I'm watching tv in this stupid, so-called football mad State, but I'm guessing it's going to be a grind either way. Took the Blues @ 2.65 in the weighted tipping, and still dirty a) the Demons didn't scrape home, and b) Patful missed. Had just moved nicely into the top 1000... :@

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) Both ozg and ash picked the Carlton-Saints outcome far better than me. Hats off to you both. Me? Like the Saints, have to take stock. Onto next week...

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10)

Both ozg and ash picked the Carlton-Saints outcome far better than me. Hats off to you both. Me? Like the Saints, have to take stock. Onto next week...

I expected a closer game saintg1 but like the Blues-Cats game 2 weeks ago, only 1 team turned up.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7 (May 7-10) Yeah, it made my assessment look pretty stupid that the Saints may show up in better shape, but who's complaining? I can categorically say that was the most relaxing Monday night on the fizz I've ever had!