That Foreign Guy Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading Am I thick? If the expected number of goals is 2.5, why is the under a favourite? Expected goals is a hypothetical average, but do most goal models really include the results like 7-0? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Foreign Guy Posted May 2, 2010 Share Posted May 2, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading That makes sense. For whatever reason I was thinking 2.5 was a median or goals had a continual distribution so something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted May 2, 2010 Share Posted May 2, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading That makes sense. For whatever reason I was thinking 2.5 was a median or goals had a continual distribution so something. I would assume its because goals are discrete, and not continuous. so there are still more ways for the final score line to be 0-0,0-1,1-0,1-1,2-0,0-2 when 2.5 goals are expected. Looking at the table it seem around 2.65 you will get a 50/50 split. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ra4 Posted May 4, 2010 Share Posted May 4, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading Hi Guys, I am new here and would like to thank all the posters for the very useful information in this thread. I have a quick question you might be able to address: what is the order of magnitude of money that somebody can make by trading horse racing in Betfair? Is there anybody making millions per year? I would appreciate any link to any article, post, blog that refers to this. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted May 4, 2010 Share Posted May 4, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading Ive had moderate sucess using a simple technique for the past year or so. Basically backing the favourite at 2-1 pre game, and then setting an in play lay at 30% or so less. (so I back at 10.00 and lay at 7.00). The problem is I have to be active while the game is in play as and unmatched bets are cancelled when a goal goes in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted May 4, 2010 Share Posted May 4, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading you can generate the table using a Poisson function. In excel its =POISSON(x,mean,1) x is the under/over line - 0.5, so x is 2 for under/over 2.5. mean is expected goals. Thanks, mate! :ok It's nice to know origin of the table, although I haven't ever bothered, I have just taken table for granted, and have used it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted May 4, 2010 Share Posted May 4, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading Thanks' date=' mate! :ok It's nice to know origin of the table, although I haven't ever bothered, I have just taken table for granted, and have used it.[/quote'] Your welcome! But let me just add that I'm sure the origin of the authors table was the historical Betfair data as he claims. For example, his odds are some way off adding up to %100, which may due to Betfair books always being plus or minus %100. What I wanted to show was that the standard Poisson function works really well for Over/Under markets and is much easier to use than compiling historical Betfair data from 1000's of matches if you just want to try some ideas out in Excel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt988 Posted May 5, 2010 Share Posted May 5, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading Hello everybody, Can you explain me how you find that number of goals is 2.8 in Roma vs. Sampdoria? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted May 6, 2010 Share Posted May 6, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading Hello everybody, Can you explain me how you find that number of goals is 2.8 in Roma vs. Sampdoria? Thanks he said you can use whatever you want. H2H meetings, last matches, average scoring of a team etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted May 6, 2010 Share Posted May 6, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading Hi Guys, I am new here and would like to thank all the posters for the very useful information in this thread. I have a quick question you might be able to address: what is the order of magnitude of money that somebody can make by trading horse racing in Betfair? Is there anybody making millions per year? I would appreciate any link to any article, post, blog that refers to this. Cheers I presume you have just started trading cause your 1st post is how much others are earning. I don't think anyone can make millions per year cause even for 5% of that money (50 000) you need a lot of patience and ups & downs. 1 advice. Don't bother to look at others. If you want to make money from trading take baby steps to it. Remember patience is a virtue. @ KThom - your strategy seems good but look at other markets as well. You can earn few ticks with backing AU and lay it in 4-5 minutes in-play. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmabet Posted May 17, 2010 Share Posted May 17, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading I tried to start a strategy thread up but nobody seems too interested and would rather mock the idea. I think it's what the Forum's missing as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleo106 Posted May 30, 2010 Share Posted May 30, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading hey everybody, I just joined this site because of this thread. I know absolutely nothing about gambling but after reading this, I am interested in learning. Im wondering if there are any free guides you can recommend for an absolutely noob. I say free because I dont have money to spare at the minute. Cheers and keep up the good posts!! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firepunt Posted June 29, 2010 Share Posted June 29, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading I am also interested in learning more about trading, I think I'll get the Mastering Betfair book that was suggested earlier in this thread. I've also come accross a trading system called TradeSharks which is about trading the tennis markets, and was wandering if anyone here uses it, and if so is it worth the £30? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted July 1, 2010 Share Posted July 1, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading Hi, I just found this article. Maybe it helps you making up your mind. www.cash-master.com/blog/tradeshark-tennis-3/ regards brecki Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaizenalpha Posted July 26, 2010 Share Posted July 26, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading Hi froment - I trade in much the same way as you've discribed - trying to find the top of the trading range is my objective for the back part of the trade after having determined the likely odds of the match ending either over or under - have done quite a bit of analysis around timings of the first goal in various leagues and still working through this - scalping a few ticks here and there can be quite profitable but and trading before in the pre match market is certainly reducing the risk of large swings due to a goal being scored - the temptation of 'inplay' is great particularly just after a goal has scored - getting in and out quickly can be tricky - but my biggest challenge is being disciplined over the entry and exit criteria and then having a plan if things go wrong - accepting any loss is hard to take but knowing that it could be far greater (and has been!) is important. I think continuing to refine and evolve the strategies around this kind of trading is profitable in the long run but does take patience and discipline - many times the opportunity may simply not be there and no profit can be made - walking away and looking for the next match may be appropriate. One thing I'm never quite sure about (not really researched much) is the impact on liquidity in the matches - the impact of price movement pre match certainly appears to be far less in a big televised premier league match versus a second division romanian league match - but what impact does this have on the ability to get matched on a few ticks out from back bet? and the size of the stake needs to be adjusted - I guess there is an optimal size bet and market liquidity to get the price moving and stakes matched - need to do some further analysis here I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NUFC Posted July 29, 2010 Share Posted July 29, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading It's something I have never done, but after seeing a mate do a bit of it during the world cup and it work quite well I think I will give it a whirl this season :) I've been looking for a few things about it, just got a new book called mastering betfair, it seems pretty awesome so far! Theres a write up of it here if any of you are interested http://clinicalfootballtips.com/betting/mastering-betfair-football-betting-book-review/ got a few things out of the book as well... **edit** I just noticed that link doesnt work :( its because it has "betfair" in the title so it auto adds punterslounge code in? (anyone know how to prevent that?) So it goes to some random page on that site... the page about the betfair book is linked on the side and the bottom of the page though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
contador Posted August 17, 2010 Share Posted August 17, 2010 Re: Betfair Trading something for the Polish players: http://www.ograjbuka.yoyo.pl/home.php?strona=filmiki/trading_na_gieldzie_zakladow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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