Betfair Trading

[Bradders2010]

Is anyone on this site interested in trading on betfair? i think it'd be great to have a few threads were we can discuss what our methods are, and share our knowledge. If this has already been created then can somone post up a link? if not then how many people here actively trade on betfair?? Thanks

[Box3r]

Re: Betfair Trading I think there aren't any but i can recommend you read adam heatchote blog at http://adamheathcote.blogspot.com/

[twinny]

Re: Betfair Trading hello Bradders,im not sure if there is another thread about tradeing(havnt looked m8),i trade on betfair on many things,sometimes good sometimes not so good:)

[froment]

Re: Betfair Trading Hi, Bradders; despite being the best betting forum I have ever found, Punters Lounge suffers from relatively poor trading content, only here and there thread pop ups with some stuff usefull for us traders; so, if you want to read trading content on this forum, maybe you want to put some efforts to inspire traders to write more than it's now... ;) I don't know if you just want to move on trading discussion here, or you are just about to start trading, so you need to learn, but I wouldn't agree with above recommendation of Adam Heathcote blog, as it seem to me just like an aggressive advertismenet for expensive Bet Angel trading application... and their, also expensive, trading courses. No offence, Box3r, it's my opinion. In my opinion, you should look no further than The Geeks Toy, which is free of charge but does not lack any function of pro applications, and they have very rich forum, exclusively for trading, and you can learn a lot from there, or Gruss Betting Assistant, which has a reasonable price of 6 GBP a month; blog I reccommend when it comes to trading is green-all-over.blogspot.com, and then look for other blogs he links to, some of them are equally good (yes, Adam is in links, too). Ok, so maybe to start some discussion, I will copy-paste in next two posts two readings that I enjoyed the most; first one is thanks to, if I remember well his sound name, Sparky Marky from Betfair forums, who posted it long time ago, I don't know if he is the original author, and it's nicely described "evolution" of a trader; the second one is story I found at the very beginning of my trading adventure, and it indeed had a big impact to my patience in trading; I don't know who is author, I just copied it and saved in my PC.

[froment]

Re: Betfair Trading Five stages to Betfair trading Step 1 - Unconscious Incompetence. This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading on Betfair. You know that its a good way of making money because you've heard so many things about it and heard of so many people who make money. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy - after all, how hard can it be? Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven't got the first clue about what you're trying to do. You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns against you so you reverse and it turns again .. and again, and again. You may have initial success, and thats even worse - it tells your brain that this really is simple and you start to risk more money. You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you'll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised. You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading. This step can last for a week or two but learning the Betfair market is usually swift and it won’t be long before you move onto the next stage. Step 2 - Conscious Incompetence Step two is where you realise that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realise that you are an incompetent trader - you don't have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit. You now set about buying systems and e-books galore, read websites and begin your search for the holy grail. During this time you will be a system nomad - you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new tipster, software or trading guru you'll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference. You will test out automated systems on Bet Angel, you'll play with Betting Assistant using Excel triggered betting, dabble on Bet IE and maybe more Excel trading with Market Feeder. You might even look at support & resistance to try and figure out a likely range where you'll be able to make a "safe" trade. You'll consider BF Explorer and Adam's BetTrader and may even analyse the market with BetMarket Scanner and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your 'magic system' starts today. You'll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and software and you'll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right. You'll go into the Betfair General Betting Forum and see other traders saying they make a profit and you want to know why it's not you - you'll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You'll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling profits are liars - they can't be making that amount because you've studied, noted form and you don't make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. Here's the reality, most real successful traders aren't in forums such as this. You will be like a teenager - the traders that say they make money will freely give you advice but you're stubborn and think that you know best - you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to - but you know better. You'll consider following the tips that others make but even then it won't work so you try paying for trading courses from someone else - they don't work for you either. You might even approach a 'guru' or someone on a forum like this who promises to make you into a trader (usually for a fee of course). Whether the guru is good or not you won't win because there is no replacement for screen time and you still think you know best. This step can last ages and ages - in fact and in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year. If your bank doesn't blow up in the meantime. This is also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration. Around 60% of new traders die out in the first 3 months - they give up and this is good - think about it - if trading was easy we would all be millionaires. Another 20% keep going for a year and then in desperation take risks guaranteed to blow their account which of course it does. What may surprise you is that of the remaining 20% all of them will last around 3 years - and they will think they are safe in the water - but even at 3 years only a further 5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently. By the way - they are real figures in another market which may not apply to Betfair. They are not just some I've picked out of my head - so when you get to 3 years in the game don't think its plain sailing from there. IMO the timeframes referred to can be condensed for Betfair and I'd like other views on this. I've had many people argue with me about these timescales - funny enough none of them have been trading for more than 3 years. Sure, I guess there will be exceptions to the rule - but I haven't met any yet. Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You've probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times but now its in your blood One day - in a split second moment you will enter stage 3. That is the Eureka Moment. Step 3 - The Eureka Moment Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it's not the system that is making the difference. You realise that it’s actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right. You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment. The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realise that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 mins. You start to work just one system that you mould to your own way of trading, you're starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold. You start to take every trade that your 'edge' shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don't get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn't possibly predict it it isn't your fault - as soon as you realise that the trade is bad you close it . The next trade will have higher odds of success because you know your system works. You have realised in an instant that the trading game is about one thing - consistency of your 'edge' and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favour. You learn about proper money management and leverage - risk of account etc - and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren't ready then, but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market. Step 4 - Conscious Competence You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it loses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account You are now at a point where you break even most of the time - day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 ticks and weeks where you lose 100 ticks - generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently. This lasts about 6 months. Step 5 - Unconscious Competence Now we’re cooking - just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade - you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 100 ticks in a day is becoming quite normal to you. This is trading utopia - you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account. You're a star on the Betfair forum and people listen to what you say. You recognise yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they're teenagers - some of them will get to where you are - some will do it fast and others will be slower - literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will. Trading is no longer exciting - in fact it's probably boring you to bits - like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job - it gets boring - you're doing your job and that's that. However, you can now say with your head held high "I'm a Betfair Trader"!

[froment]

Re: Betfair Trading The story of Ster The following message was recently posted by a well known Betfair poster called Ster. Its uncomfortable, but I believe essential reading for anyone using betting exchanges. It seems extremely unlikely that Ster would have been suffering these problems had betting exchanges never been invented, and it is a timely reminder to us all that whilst Betfair et al offer us previously unimaginable opportunity and freedom, this does not come without risk and responsibility. The response from the forum was almost universally supportive and I felt that two replies from forumites Counter and Duncan Disorderli offered particular words of wisdom that deserved a wider audience. So here follows the Story of Ster Hello everybody, a lot of you might recognise my name from use of this forum over the last couple of years. I thought I would make one last visit on this site to tell my story. I've been gambling on horses since I was old enough to walk into a bookies. For the first few years it was a bit of a laugh, I lost but only small and I enjoyed the game. Along came the Likes of Flutter and eventually Betfair which made gambling a much fairer proposition and found I spent more time on these and less in the bookies. Anyway my first year on here was reasonably unsuccessful but found I was learning new things all the time and I learned how to run 'books' whereby you can balance out a race for a guaranteed profit. I found that I could actually do 4 or 5 of these a day and actually make more than I was doing in work. Things actually went so well, I quit my job as a travel agent and went full time on here. By the end of 2002 I had made enough to take 5 months off and go travelling in New Zealand and even become a member of the "£15,000 club" (who have made over £15000 in a Betfair year) and life was great, I was even part of the Betfair Premium Team, despite my liking for online casinos when I was bored. I did enjoy laying favourites or ones I didn't fancy but win or lose, it didn't really matter cos I was making plenty on the books I went through money pretty quickly out there and came back pretty skint but with loads of good memories. From here on in though things started to go downhill. I borrowed money from credit cards to get me up and running again and found it much tougher and tighter to make books. I found that the margins had gone very tight and my method for making money had all but vanished. I tried running books but found I made very little money and with bills to pay and no money coming in I spent less time running books and more time taking chances laying and betting. Eventually by the end of 2003 I had gone from running 5 or 6 books everyday to 2 or 3 a couple of times a week and not making anything on those even when I did. The credit cards kept giving me more credit and the debt kept piling up, lying to my family, friends and girlfriend that everything was alright and that I was still making money on here. I found I had gone from an outgoing lad to a bloke who went home early on a Saturday night so he could lay US horses. The pretence was kept up so much that I even booked 3 months away in Canada with my girlfriend knowing that I would have to borrow money from my credit cards just to get by. Breaking point came last Friday when all of my cards were up to their limit, and I had no money to pay my rent, let alone have 5 grand spending money for 3 months in Canada in 8 weeks time. It all became too much and I cracked and told all to my parents and my girlfriend. Both were very upset to begin with but eventually we talked and devised a plan to get me back on track, away from gambling, and still go to Canada. I will be making my first GA meeting on Monday (only time I can get off work) and am really looking forward to it I am posting this today just to let people know that even the supposedly best winners on here can end up finding themselves in the absolute pits and that help is available to those who need it. I'd like to thank everyone who I had banter with on here, Kev, Woody, kirstie and all the Stow lot, and everyone else who I have known on here, but if I am to get my life back on track I cant come on here anymore and I will be deleting all email contacts from my inbox. Many thanks to everyone for the crack but I wont be back. Regards Ster (Source: http://www.p2pbetting.com/Articles/2004/Aug/TheStoryofSter/tabid/755/Default.aspx)

[Box3r]

Re: Betfair Trading

Hi, Bradders; despite being the best betting forum I have ever found, Punters Lounge suffers from relatively poor trading content, only here and there thread pop ups with some stuff usefull for us traders; so, if you want to read trading content on this forum, maybe you want to put some efforts to inspire traders to write more than it's now... ;) I don't know if you just want to move on trading discussion here, or you are just about to start trading, so you need to learn, but I wouldn't agree with above recommendation of Adam Heathcote blog, as it seem to me just like an aggressive advertismenet for expensive Bet Angel trading application... and their, also expensive, trading courses. No offence, Box3r, it's my opinion. In my opinion, you should look no further than The Geeks Toy, which is free of charge but does not lack any function of pro applications, and they have very rich forum, exclusively for trading, and you can learn a lot from there, or Gruss Betting Assistant, which has a reasonable price of 6 GBP a month; blog I reccommend when it comes to trading is green-all-over.blogspot.com, and then look for other blogs he links to, some of them are equally good (yes, Adam is in links, too). Ok, so maybe to start some discussion, I will copy-paste in next two posts two readings that I enjoyed the most; first one is thanks to, if I remember well his sound name, Sparky Marky from Betfair forums, who posted it long time ago, I don't know if he is the original author, and it's nicely described "evolution" of a trader; the second one is story I found at the very beginning of my trading adventure, and it indeed had a big impact to my patience in trading; I don't know who is author, I just copied it and saved in my PC.

Non taken. I know there is more content but I was reading that blog some time ago. I found some useful info there although he don't want to share 30% of what is he doing. I too want to find out more about trading. Can I ask is forex e-books worth any reading on how to recognize steamer or a drifter (I know many of these are scams)? Any other financial e-book maybe?

[jimbo45]

Re: Betfair Trading Hi there Read my post in this Forum on GREENING. I've only been trading on Betfair for a week but I've increased a small 100 GBP bank to 150 GBP following simple Greening rules. I'm probably still at the "Unconcious Incompetance" stage -- but when trading the golden rule is EACH TRADE IS A BRAND NEW ONE -- NEVER EVER EVER let previous losses influence your next trade. That's the first route to Bankruptcy -- chasing losses -- we are TRADERS and NOT GAMBLERS. TRADERS use MATHEMATICS, GAMBLERS rely on LUCK. If a trade is going south -- For example you've laid a 100 to 1 outsider that looks like it might be a winner - then if you've got decent software such as BETANGEL you might be able to reverse your position during INPLAY by laying as many other horses as you can get your bet on in the last furlong or you might be able to get some Back bets on to offset your loss -- but then that's IT -- FORGET IT and move on to the next trade. I wouldn't EVER LAY a 100 to 1 outsider without having covering positions elsewhere. Laying is not so simple - a few losing bets (i.e Horse wins) and you've wiped your Bank. - Not a sensible strategy. It IS possible to make loads of winning bets (I prefer the term TRADES) on Betfair - but it's not a GET RICH QUICK system. It's GET RICH SLOWLY - but you CAN do it safely. Simple SAFE rule for Beginners -- Try the FREE BET system -- Back any decent Horse for say 2 GBP and then LAY it at a LOWER price than you backed it for. This will give you a FREE BET since if you win you win the backed horse, whereas if you lose you lose NOTHING . (Greening will Guarantee you a profit - you back a horse at 5 GBP for say 16 and then Lay at 8 GBP at 10 then you will WIN whatever the outcome. The problem however is to find horses where the odds shorten a lot AFTER you've placed your BACK bet - but with Real Time / IN PLAY it's quite possible -- there's usually 10 decent opportunities per day at doing this on UK / Irish Horse meets). Cheers jimbo

[Box3r]

Re: Betfair Trading

Simple SAFE rule for Beginners -- Try the FREE BET system -- Back any decent Horse for say 2 GBP and then LAY it at a LOWER price than you backed it for. This will give you a FREE BET since if you win you win the backed horse, whereas if you lose you lose NOTHING .

That is scalping and it is very good for all not only beginners. You can do it few times before the race and can be profitable if you are patient enough. I consider it as a glass that needs to be filled with water but it is dripping drop by drop. I sometimes do it. Not very much but when I want to make at least 10 euros to back some horse or a team so i can have free bet on it. In 1 thick want to make at least 2-3 euro. It can be done with more money but like fronment said patience is a virtue.

[Bradders2010]

Re: Betfair Trading Good to see this thread gained a fair bit of attention! thanks to everyone who replied.

Box3r, i've paid close attention to adam's blog, even to the point wer i'd read his posts more than once in hope of picking somethin up. One of my best mates from uni, his close set of mates from london has a lad who knows adam (one of those mate of a mate of a mate of a mate) and clarified he makes mega bucks doing this, but also said he is the most disciplined and organized lad you'll ever meet. i believe his profits to be true

Twinny, may i ask how much you make/lose on trading? and details on your click stakes, how many times you enter/exit in a race and any other details relating to the way you trade? its hard to pick it up when you literally know nobody who trades apart people you meet online.

Froment, fantasic posting on the two threads you copied up here, i'm definitely in stage 2 were i realise that i cant hand in my notice yet! but also realising that persistance is the key and i know i'll keep on trying, its a shame that i didn't find betfair trading during university as i'd have all the time in the world to practise then.

Well a bit about myself, at the minute i'm attempting trading for the second time around. initially i thought "**** me loads of dosh, lets do the peter webb course then make millions" now i realise i couldnt be further from the truth. After loosing around 80% of my trades due to aimlessly clicking away, then wiping out my bank by failing to close position and going in-play i packed it in.

Now i'm more disciplined, i'll trade a few evening races and afterwards what i do (very useful) is a write up "the good, the bad, next aim, final thought" which is sort of a self analysis of how a traded and certain mistakes/errors i made. I traded the guiness gold cup last nite and whilst eyeballing the second fave for 3 minutes in hope a one-click profit could be made, i missed denman drift form 2.54 to 2.84 and nearly kicked myself. but i kept my cool and jumped on when i saw in steam back in to 2.54.

i learnt a lesson "the bad" in never focus away from the favourtie as that is wer the money is and also that i must close positions quicker.

"the good" was keeping my cool and cathing onto the big swing which i made 11 ticks on.

"next aim" would be to test solely trading on the favourite if he is close to being odds on fave as there is a possible big swing around the corner, possibly with no indication.

"final thought" would be that maybe we need to always keep ourselves in a position to jump on any horse, meaning that closing your position is essential so that your always clear minded when looking at the other horses and not wasting your time waiting for a 1 tick when the horse next to you is giving a 11 tick swing.

I think i could write all day about trades, also read all day about certain situations we've been through, the valuable experience we need to gain before our knowledge aids our patience, focus and ability. so i'll be keeping an eye on the page on a daily basis and look forward to tales of big losses/wins equally!

How likely is it getting a betfair trading section created here? could a mod sort this out??

best of luck with trading guys, good to speak with some traders!

[That Foreign Guy]

Re: Betfair Trading I do a very limited amount of Betfair trading. It's something I've been meaning to get more in to but find it's just not as fun as spreadsheeting a nice betting system. Plus I lack the discipline to close positions for a loss so wind up with some random -EV gambles when things go wrong.

[Bradders2010]

Re: Betfair Trading What type os systems do you use foriegn guy?

[Datapunter]

Re: Betfair Trading

How likely is it getting a Betfair trading section created here? could a mod sort this out??

Use the Glory Hunters forum, just stick to the rules of that forum. A dedicated forum simply depends on the amount of interest measured by the number of active threads.

[marron]

Re: Betfair Trading Not really ever got my head around laying. I understand the concept but not quite sure when it comes to backing and laying the same selection to secure a profit. I have backed a selection with 7pts at 5/2 and is now available to lay at 1.6, how much should i lay off to secure a good profit?

[Furlong]

Re: Betfair Trading

Not really ever got my head around laying. I understand the concept but not quite sure when it comes to backing and laying the same selection to secure a profit. I have backed a selection with 7pts at 5/2 and is now available to lay at 1.6, how much should i lay off to secure a good profit?

A lay stake of £19.69 will show a profit of £12.07

[froment]

Re: Betfair Trading

Not really ever got my head around laying. I understand the concept but not quite sure when it comes to backing and laying the same selection to secure a profit. I have backed a selection with 7pts at 5/2 and is now available to lay at 1.6, how much should i lay off to secure a good profit?

You need to express both back and lay odds in decimal format, and then there's an equation: Back odds * Back stake = Lay odds * Lay stake In your case: Lay stake = Back odds * Back stake / Lay odds = 3.5 * 7 / 1.6 = 15.31 If your back selection wins, you win 7*(3.5 -7) = 17.5 units on your back bet, and lose 15.31*(1.6 - 1) = 9.19 liability on your lay bet, so profit is 17.5 - 9.19 = 8.31 units. If your back selection loses (lay selection wins), you win 15.31 units on lay bet, and lose 7 units on back bet, so profit is 15.31 - 7 = 8.31 units. Naturally, commission eats some percentage of this profit. If you want to distribute profit not equally across both selections, there are a lot of online calculators, google up and you'll find; I prefer one at www.chromaweb.com

[marron]

Re: Betfair Trading Cheers for the help guys, appreciated

[froment]

Re: Betfair Trading

Non taken. I know there is more content but I was reading that blog some time ago. I found some useful info there although he don't want to share 30% of what is he doing. I too want to find out more about trading. Can I ask is forex e-books worth any reading on how to recognize steamer or a drifter (I know many of these are scams)? Any other financial e-book maybe?

Well, I trade only football, so I can't properly answer your questions; though, beside above blog, I may reccommend a book "Mastering Betfair", by Pete Nordsted, which is in fact the only betting/trading book Iever boght, untill now at least; it covers some basics of Betfair, well known to all of us, but also has deeper insights and some strategies from his experience; why I don't like Adam, but like Pete and his blog at www.petenordsted.com? Adam's target is, if I remember well, 150.000 GBP, which is sky high target, and probably achievable only by full-time traders, and not by traders like me, who trade for recreation in evening, after regular working hours, or here and there for weekends if I'm bored; on the other hand, Pete states somewhere in his book that his target is to pay holidays from trading, which is quite reasonable, realistic and achievable target, just like Shadowvkc's thread http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f19/paying-rent-winnings-new-month-new-bills-97840/ Let me show you one of his strategies, that I have just used today; it's pre-match trading on under/over 2.5; out of several games I analyzed for trading this weekend, match Roma vs. Sampdoria stood out with its overrated odds for under 2.5 goals; my analysis, based on Pete's instructions, showed that expected number of goals in this match is 2.8; for this number of goals, fair odds for under 2.5 would be 2.12; though, yesterday evening, odds were around 2.28-2.30, so I placed a bet at 2.30, which I found matched this morning; in fact, I saw that some amounts were traded as high as 2.32 and 2.34; as I expected, this afternoon, odds started dropping down, and currently one can lay under 2.5 at 2.22, which makes profit of around 3.4%, after commission; according to WoM, it looks like it will not drop further prior to kick-off, maybe only a tick, as there is huge amount available to back at 2.20 and 2.18, but I think in only five to seven minutes into the game, odds will drop to evens; naturally, if there is no some early goal, but both Roma and Sampdoria have the tendency of scoring early goals, so I will probably close this trade before kick-off... and it's bloody good feeling - the game hasn't started yet, and screen is already green! :cow

How likely is it getting a betfair trading section created here? could a mod sort this out?? best of luck with trading guys, good to speak with some traders!

Datapunter proposed to use Glory Hunters forum, which is good if you have the intention to record your trades and show to us all; though, for general trading discussion, I think Bookmakers and EXCHANGES forum is intended. As I said before, there were no much trading discussions, either there is not many traders in this forum, either they're like me, lazy to write and have nothing smart to say... :spank Thanks, and good luck to you, too! Hope to keep this thread alive, it might be nice place to exchange ideas. :ok

[skalcik]

Re: Betfair Trading froment, would you share the method which you use to analyse under/over markets?

[froment]

Re: Betfair Trading

froment' date=' would you share the method which you use to analyse under/over markets?[/quote'] It's purely statistical analysis; you can take what you prefer - all the season, last 5, 6, 8 or 10 matches, home/away goals, H2H encounters, and so on; one of the sources proposed in book mentioned above is also level of goals offered to buy/to sell at www.sportingindex.com; anyway, I figured out that expected number of goals in this match was 2.8 (and match, you may know, finished 1-2); now, according to a table from this book, and I'm not sure if I may replicate full table here due to copyrights, odds for under 2.5 goals when expected number of goals is 2.8, should be 2.12; and indeed, most bookmakers offered odds in range 2.05 - 2.15, only couple of them, if I remember well, were out of these borders; it's known that Betfair offers higher prices, but not so much higher, so odds of 2.30 looked to me as value; match itself didn't finish in unders, but first goal was scored not before 14th minute, which offered plenty of time to trade out for profit, especially given that strategy I mentioned is intended to gain a couple of ticks prior to kick off, therefore literally without big risk.

[skalcik]

Re: Betfair Trading

It's purely statistical analysis; you can take what you prefer - all the season' date=' last 5, 6, 8 or 10 matches, home/away goals, H2H encounters, and so on; one of the sources proposed in book mentioned above is also level of goals offered to buy/to sell at [url']www.sportingindex.com; anyway, I figured out that expected number of goals in this match was 2.8 (and match, you may know, finished 1-2); now, according to a table from this book, and I'm not sure if I may replicate full table here due to copyrights, odds for under 2.5 goals when expected number of goals is 2.8, should be 2.12; and indeed, most bookmakers offered odds in range 2.05 - 2.15, only couple of them, if I remember well, were out of these borders; it's known that Betfair offers higher prices, but not so much higher, so odds of 2.30 looked to me as value; match itself didn't finish in unders, but first goal was scored not before 14th minute, which offered plenty of time to trade out for profit, especially given that strategy I mentioned is intended to gain a couple of ticks prior to kick off, therefore literally without big risk.

Thanks for the info. I analysed u/o market using stats from all previous games. I'll try your method. Sport index seems interesting tool. Recenty I'm working on CS 0:0 market. Before the game I trade 1,2 ticks that gives me a big green on 0:0 and 0 for all the rest. I use that as insurance for other trades. CS 0-0 seems to go down 1-3 ticks just before kick off when the odds 0:0 are high, 12-20. PS Sorry for my english, its not my first language, either second ;)

[froment]

Re: Betfair Trading No worries, mate, your English is quite correct, completely understandable! :ok I think, backing 0-0 is fine, untill you do it before kick-off; once the game goes in-play, it's dangerous, as there is no place for mistake - only one early goal, and your bet is lost...

[salparadise]

Re: Betfair Trading

odds for under 2.5 goals when expected number of goals is 2.8' date=' should be 2.12.[/quote'] Out of interest froment, how do you work out those odds?

[froment]

Re: Betfair Trading

Out of interest froment' date=' how do you work out those odds?[/quote'] Well, I thought I explained it in post: I worked out only expected number of goals; odds that correspond to that number were given in table, and I don't know in which way it was calculated, but seems to give pretty confidential relationship.

[skalcik]

Re: Betfair Trading Can you send me this table on e-mail? [email protected]

[salparadise]

Re: Betfair Trading

Well' date=' I thought I explained it in post: I worked out only expected number of goals; odds that correspond to that number were given in table, and I don't know in which way it was calculated, but seems to give pretty confidential relationship.[/quote'] Yeah mate youre right you did explain it, Ive just got that many numbers flying around my head at the moment I dont know which way is up from down. One of those days...haha :lol

[dieberiz]

Re: Betfair Trading Very interesting information. thanks :)

[froment]

Re: Betfair Trading

Can you send me this table on e-mail? [email protected]

Well, I have contacted author at his site, and got the approval to publish the table:

[That Foreign Guy]

Re: Betfair Trading

What type os systems do you use foriegn guy?

For trading? I do a little WOM and a little trend-chasing. I also try to round trip crabbing markets. By that I mean join the back and lay queue when the market has volume but no trend, especially when there's good support volume in both directions.

[skalcik]

Re: Betfair Trading

Well, I have contacted author at his site, and got the approval to publish the table:

Thanks a lot!