Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 - Final Profit +127.57 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Lodi ran poorly at Brighton yesterday which was very frustrating having seen his price collapse. The withdrawl of Poppanan meant a 30p rule 4 would have been applied to our 20/1, but nevertheless, we would have still doubled the eventual SP which was driven into 7/1. As long as we keep beating prices by margins like that, the long term picture will be rosy. Just one bet for today, ahead of a busy three days at York from tomorrow: 4.00 Beverley TAMASOU should appreciate the little rest he has been given and with Roger Curtis' yard in very good form (the placings of all of their runners in the last fortnight are 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd) I think now could be an ideal time to catch him right. He has placed over the extended mile at Wolverhampton in the past so should see out this trip here, with his win at Musselburgh confirming a stiff finish poses no real problems. He is only 3 lbs higher than when scoring at Catterick last term so I feel he can be competitive today off his present mark. Advised bet: Tamasou 25/1 Stan James, 0.75 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Tamasou was well held today, thats two poor picks in a row, hoping to bounce back tomorrow at York. Inxile was posted yesterday in the 3.10 and Ive backed these two too 1.40 York I think Forte Dei Marmi is potentially a pattern horse and I fully expect him to improve beyond his current rating of 93. His price tomorrow is a bit of a problem though as I was hoping for 3/1 plus, so as an alternative I am nominating CALL IT ON as my selection. With trainer Mark Tompkins hitting a purple patch of form it may be the best time to catch the four-year-old who ran a number of consistent races in middle distance handicaps last term without winning. He has the stamina to see out one and a quarter miles and although 2 lb higher than when placing off this mark at Windsor in October, I think he can defy this mark of 87 with the recent weather taking the sting out of the ground. Advised bet: Call It On 33/1 Stan James, 0.75 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds) 2.10 York KAPTAIN KIRKUP was one of my selections at Newmarket last time out and although he was well held in mid-field, there has been an important development since that means he may run much closer tomorrow, namely trainer Michael Dods has come into form. The County Durham handler was in the middle of a barren spell when turning his runner out at HQ that day but the way his horses were running at Chester this week, and indeed today when he saddled up the winner in the 4.00 at Beverley, suggest that all of his runners deserve a second look. This Captain Rio colt is progressive, open to more improvement, and shapes as if this extra furlong will be idea. Advised bet: Kaptain Kirkup 12/1 Stan James, 0.75 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 3.45 York MANNICHLEN has been running well in defeat of late and although 6 lb higher than his last win over shorter, he shapes as if this trip could unlock further improvement. He has a draw towards the inside which should enable him to get a handy position in this large field. Advised bet: Mannichlen 16/1 Betfred 0.75 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds) 4.55 York THINK ITS OVER was beaten on his handicap debut last time out but the prospect of a stronger pace here and a step up in trip means he could gain compensation today even if this looks a tougher race. Advised bet: Think Its Over, 7/1 Paddypower, 0.75 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds)

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

3.45 York MANNICHLEN has been running well in defeat of late and although 6 lb higher than his last win over shorter, he shapes as if this trip could unlock further improvement. He has a draw towards the inside which should enable him to get a handy position in this large field. Advised bet: Mannichlen 16/1 Betfred 0.75 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds)

You've got a great bet there. I originally had him as my most likely winner, only to downgrade him and go for another selection. It's close between them and I must say that he's a much bigger price than he should be. I'm thinking more and more about backing more than one in a race in future and it'll be interesting to see if my each way bet turns out ok or whether I should have gone win on both. For the time being I've had a saver on him at 18-1 on betfair just so that I'm not too unhappy if he does win. Good luck, but not if he's in a photo with mine!:lol

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

You've got a great bet there. I originally had him as my most likely winner' date=' only to downgrade him and go for another selection. It's close between them and I must say that he's a much bigger price than he should be. I'm thinking more and more about backing more than one in a race in future and it'll be interesting to see if my each way bet turns out ok or whether I should have gone win on both. For the time being I've had a saver on him at 18-1 on betfair just so that I'm not too unhappy if he does win. Good luck, but not if he's in a photo with mine!:lol[/quote'] Cheers K, Ill be doing my best to cheer it on from the Stands!! If its nowhere, then yours will get my support. Personally I thought it was a 10/1 chance so agree the price is very good. These are my prices Im hoping to beat on course today: 1.40: Indian Days 20/1, Saga De Tercey 16/1, Forte Dei Marmi 7/2, Red Jade 12/1, Call It On 25/1 (taken 60.0 on Betfair) 2.10: Summinethecity 7/2, Kaptain Kirkup 10/1 2.40: Aviate 5/2, Pink Symphony 10/1 3.10: Inxile 10/1 3.45: The Fonz 12/1, Mannichlen 10/1 4.20: no bet race 4.55: Think Its All Over 6/1 I wont include any of these in the thread though, just the ones already posted above.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Mixed bag today but importantly, a profitable day. a 15p R4 was applied to the 12/1 taken on Kaptain Kirkup. one for tomorrow at the minute 1.40 York Keiren Fallon gave Deauville Flyer a superb ride to land victory on the line in the 3.45 today and I hope he can ride RIVER FALCON in a similar manner tomorrow. Jom Goldie's veteran is by far the oldest runner in the field, but he shows his appetite still remains with a solid effort on his reappearance at Musselburgh. The form of that race is working out nicely, and although this horse has not managed to get his head infront for several years, he has slipped to a very nice mark as a result. Placed over course and distance and on good to firm ground in the past, he ticks most boxes for tomorrow. Advised bet: River Falcon 12/1 William Hill, 0.75 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Rest of todays from York... 1.40 York I've already advised a bet on River Falcon in this race but at the prices available this morning I also want REBEL DUKE onside at 14/1 as a saver. The six-year-old is best known for his exploits on the all-weather but ran very well at Nottingham on good to firm ground last time out to suggest he is also weighted to go close on turf too. He should also enjoy the run of the race like River Falcon. Advised bet: Rebel Duke 14/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt win 3.10 York This listed handicap run over a mile has the potential to turn into a muddling affair but WANNABE KING looks capable of coming out on top after a luckless run in the Spring Cup at Newbury last time. With his yard in very good form at present I expect him to gain compensation, as these quick conditions are ideal for him and he progressed so well last season sporting headgear which is crucially on again today. Advised bet: Wannabe King 7/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds) 4.55 York The fast ground has led to quite a few of these runners ducking the race but ROYAL TROOPER should take his chance having placed on good-firm several times. He was only a length off Twist Again at Doncaster last time out and despite being 1 lb better off at todays weights, is triple the price of that rival today. The prospect of this extra yardage should suit and he looks the value bet of the pair. Advised bet: Royal Trooper 10/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Not a bad day today. River Falcon was outpaced but stayed on for place money. Wannabe King travelled superbly until 2f out when he found absolutely nothing off the bridle. Royal Trooper placed in the stayers handicap. Despite reverse placings we got paid out first past the post for third. 2.10 York This looks one of the best handicaps of the season and will certaintly produce winners in the future. Dangerous Midge looks very useful and could improve beyond his current rating and Fortuni, who hacked up on the all-weather on his penultimate start, held classic entries last season. Thin Red Line dotted up at Chester last week despite trainer Michael Dods stating he would come on for the run and Hanoverian Baron and Cool Strike are two others that would not be winning out of turn. All in all, it looks a mouthwatering race, but the one that looks overpriced to me is CRACKENTORP. He was an advised bet back in April at Catterick and ran poorly, but I feel he is worth another chance after he stumbled out of the stalls and found himself not having the race run to suit. The trainer has his yard in good nick and this horse looks as if he may have a big handicap in him, especially now the handicapper has dropped him 2 lbs from his last run. Advised bet: Crackentorp 20/1 Paddypower, 0.75 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Final two for today: 4.20 York BUACHAILL DONA disappointed at Chester when last seen but he faced a really tough task from a poor draw and I think he overpriced as a result of a run that can be ignored. Prior to that he was winning at Newcastle. A career best is needed here off a 4 lb higher mark but he acts under these conditions and can go well. Advised bet: Buachaill Dona 10/1 Stan James, 0.75 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds) 5.20 Newmarket ZIGGY LEE remains well handicapped having lost a race in the stewards room last season. He should be realistically at least 6 lbs higher than his present mark and he should strip fitter for his last run at Windsor. His yard are well known gamblers and the price is already rapidly contracting this morning as he is 8/1 from 12/1. I take that as a good sign and still think he is value at the available price. Advised bet: Ziggy Lee 8/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Wow, Coral are sticking their necks out offering 12/1 for Ziggy Lee (5.20 Newmarket), he is 8/1 across the board except with some firms at 7/1. Another 0.75 pt win at 12/1 with Coral advised.

[DM99]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 You're banging them in today! Top selection with Ziggy Lee!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 cheers dude, was well excited about that one, as soon as i saw the 12s with corals the level stakes plan went out the window for today!

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Fantastic stuff as always fintron, had a look at this one when you tipped it up and stuck it in a lucky 15, was my only winner out the 4 but got a nice return thanks to double odds on 1 winner :clap

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Really fantastic tipping over the last few weeks. It was only a matter of time before some of those places started being converted into winners. It's not like you're playing in the easy races either as most are competitive handicaps. I don't know how you do it, but hope you keep it going and paste them bookies. :ok

[markmywords]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Tipping fin everthing I backed today nowhere had this one down to you and cut some loss:beer

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Thanks for the comments all, much appreciated :ok A review of Fri - Sun selections to follow tomorrow. three for today 3.40 Newbury FIVE STAR JUNIOR - his best form has come on the all weather but he has dropped to a nice turf mark and ran well at Doncaster last time out over conditions similar to today. He is well suited to six furlongs and should give a ood account. Advised bet: Five Star Junior 14/1 VC Bet, 0.75 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds) 5.30 Thirsk MEDICI TIME won over this course and distance last time out and only been dealt a 4 lb rise from that day. He has the usual visor on and can strike for a yard in good form. Advised bet: 12/1 Stan James, 0.75 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds) 8.10 Doncaster ALL THE NINES progressed nicely last season and although his form levelled out he seemed to benefit from a winter rest when showing signs of a revival at Kempton last time out. He is racing off a winning mark and has his ideal ground. The consistent TANGERINE TREES looks overpriced as he looks for a hat-trick on groung h favours and is worth a saver bet. Advised Bets: All The Nines 16/1 Paddypower, 0.75 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds) Tangerine Trees 9/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Poor day today, Five Star Junior ran well at Newbury and was fifth but the other two never really got involved. Only one bet for tomorrow, over in France. 2.50 Longchamp - French 2,000 Guineas I think Dick Turpin was flattered by his performance in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and that his price, as low as 11/4 in a place, is too short, so I've looked to take him and the other shortie on. I don't know much about the form of many of these and have not seen some of them race but I did notebook ALDOVRANDI after seeing him run at Kempton earlier in the season and I think its interesting connections have pitched him in at such a high level here. Nobody knows if he truly possesses the quality of a classic horse, but he rates better than the winning margin suggested last time out and showed he has gears when finishing strongly after initially racing keenly in the opening stages. Trainer Marco Botti has reported him to have worked well on turf, he may end up outclassed here and find more winnable opportunities at listed/Group 3 level, but I think a truly run race tomorrow should be to his benefit and that the price justifies a bet as he undoubtedly improving. Advised bet: Aldovrandi 25/1 SJ, 0.75 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds)

[Trotter]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Nice one, Fin I've been looking at that race tonight and also have Aldovrandi as a good outsider for an EW after the AW performance At the moment he's about 33 on the PMU, but i think he might drift tomorrow when the French turfistes start backing their own horses........ Apart from his lack of experience he also hasn't got a great draw, which might put me off

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 do you do your speed figures for the french races trotter or is it harder to get times and standards? I found some trends on google on a ruk blog, they also said drawn 9 or lower like you say, but the place stats were something like 12% if drawn 10 or higher versus 16 % if drawn lower, so i kind of overlooked it a little. I think poets voice should upset siyounis pacemaker and that could tee it up for a fast finisher......

[Trotter]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

do you do your speed figures for the french races trotter or is it harder to get times and standards? .....

No, I don't bother with turf racing at all - too many tracks and going variables ! I love doing ratings though, so I'm having a crack at form ratings for group races. My top few for today...... 125 - Dick Turpin 124 - Siyouni 119 - Zazou (poor draw) 119 - Buzzword 118 - Poets Voice (poor draw) I'm more cofident with the older horses though, where I have more runs to go on Taling of the draw, Special Duty is drawn 12 of 12 in the 'Pouliches' - be interesting to see how that pans out !

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

No, I don't bother with turf racing at all - too many tracks and going variables ! I love doing ratings though, so I'm having a crack at form ratings for group races. My top few for today...... 125 - Dick Turpin 124 - Siyouni 119 - Zazou (poor draw) 119 - Buzzword 118 - Poets Voice (poor draw) I'm more cofident with the older horses though, where I have more runs to go on Taling of the draw, Special Duty is drawn 12 of 12 in the 'Pouliches' - be interesting to see how that pans out !

Both Guineas winners were drawn high, I think we can cross a line through any draw bias at the track, if the horse is a hold up horse and gets the race run to suit!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Results Update 10/5 Lodi -1.5 11/5 Tamsou -1.5 12/5 Call It On -1.5 12/5 Kaptain Kirkup (WON 12/1 EW 15p R4) +9.57 12/5 Mannlichen -1.5 12/5 Think Its All Over -1.5 12/5 Inxile -1.5 13/5 River Falcon/Rebel Duke (Placed 12/1 EW 10p R4) +1.03 13/5 Wannabe King -1.5 13/5 Royal Trooper (Placed 10/1 EW) +1.13 14/5 Crackentorp (Placed 20/1 EW 10p R4) +2.62 14/5 Buachaill Dona -1.5 14/5 Ziggy Lee (WON 8/1 EW & 12/1) +16.5 15/5 Five Star Junior -1.5 15/5 Medici Time -1.5 15/5 All The Nines/Tangerine Trees -1.75 16/5 Aldovrandi -1.5 Thread Stats No. of bets: 71 + 17 = 88 Pts staked: 75 + 26.75 = 101.75 Profit/loss: +22.63 + 12.6 = +35.23 ROI: +35 % Strike Rate (winners only): 11/88 (13 %) Strike Rate (placers/winners 35/88 = 40 %) Biggest winner: Jack My Boy 20/1 (1/5/10) Another good week for the thread and profit has been topped up by another 12.6 pts after a 47 % yield week. The strike rate has actually dropped a little from previous weeks but by upping stakes a similar level of profit was made. The Ziggy Lee result has made the week but I was ultra confident on his chances and its the only time since adopting level stakes that I've broken away from normal staking. I think as long as such bets are rarities then its okay. The selections are proving a bit hit and miss, some are bombing out completely but the likes of Lodi (20/1), Tamasou (25/1), Call It On (33/1) and Aldovrandi (25/1) were all unfancied outsiders so I suppose thats to be expected at times? Im happy with how the big pricers are performing in the main as they are definately paying their way, my aim is to improve the performance of the shorter price picks as they have disappointed me. For example, Wannabe King was cruising on the bridle at York (7/1) but found nothing in the finish and Inxile (12/1) and Buachaill Dona (10/1) both faded tamely in their sprint races. Think Its Over (7/1) ran no sort of race at York despite strong market support all day, so thats the point of action for next week, trying to work out if I did anything wrong in the selection of if I was genuinely undone by horses underperforming on the day. I am tempted into beleiving the latter was the case, especially since a few of my old picks seem to be winning next time out after flopping when the money was down - Damika and Dubai Dynamo to name two this weekend. However, I dont want to get drawn into following horses throughout the season in a notebook fashion and want to assess each race on merit and consider value in that race (I do still keep a notebook to flag up horses of interest NTO - price permitting though).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 In Kithanga's thread last night I was harping on about how, in the middle of a bad run, its important for a punter to stay focussed and not lump onto short priced horses to try find a winner....and here I am backing horses at 6/5 and 8/11 today :lol Seriously though, today's bets are not desperation bets to try end a losing run (last week was my second most profitable of the season), and I will be doing a few more of these doubles over the course of the remainder of the season when the field sizes are small and its not possible to pick the usual 10/1 type. It more of a trial more than anything to see if these doubles can stay profitable alongside the main bets, as I'm still learning. 3.00 Bath LADY HESTIA ran out a winner at this track last season and Marcus Tregoning's filly showed she has trained on by landing a much stronger handicap at Doncaster on her reappearance. On Terms is progressing and ranks as a danger but she is yet to run up against a filly as good as the dropped-in-grade Lady Hestia, who I fancy to prevail. 6.30 Leicester Michael Jarvis is 2-2 this season in two-year-old maidens and his MUJRAAYAT is fancied to go close in this race. A half-brother to a winning sprint debutant in France, he looks set for a big run if able to fend of the likely challenge of Nasharra. Advised bet: 1.5 pt win double on Lady Hestia (6/5) and Mujraayat (8/11) with Victor Chandler (odds of just over 11/4 for the double).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 A bit gutted about that double as my Leicester pick was originally Feathered Crown (as per the Leics thread) but when the prices came out I changed my mind at the last minute. Feathered Crown won and Mujrayaat was turned over by Nasharra so despite Lady Hestia winning the bet is a loser. Only myself to blame, mind. One for tomorrow... 7.30 Carlisle After a slow start to the season Michael Dods' runners have now hit some form. The County Durham handler sends out two here with Celtic Change, victorious at Beverley last week, turned out under a penalty and 4/1 joint favourite. I respect his chances but don't think he will have his own way again here so his stablemate ALDAADO is my bet instead. The horse finished midfield on his reappearance in a large field race at Pontefract from a poor draw and disappointed when well held at Hamilton last time out. However, he has now dropped to a really good mark, 1 lb lower than his win at Haydock last season, and having won at Beverley over a stiff mile I think he may be able to see out this trip here. Fast ground certainly poses no problems and I feel he is a little overpriced as it could well be that he has taken longer than expected to come to hand. Advised bet: Aldaado 14/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds)

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Very interesting that you've spotted that one up at Carlisle as I considered it too. It's the only race I've looked at tomorrow and it wasn't an easy animal to price up. It all hinges on whether you overlook it's last 3 defeats. The final one of last year can be discounted on account of it maybe having gone over the top. The first this season as it may have needed the run (it did last year) but it's latest start when back at a track it had previously won on was very disappointing, especially as it weakened as soon as it hit the hill. Maybe it still needed it as it did track a strong pace that day and hadn't had much of a race at Ponte earlier. I priced it at about 11-1 by the way, so it is slightly overpriced IMO even with the doubts. I need something a little stronger myself though for my next bet as confidence is low and I also have Wovoka at 11-1, who's also available at 14's, those being the only two that look slightly out of line to me. Good luck with it, hope it goes well for you.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 cheers k. There are actually a lot of similarities in our prices judging by those you posted in your thread (mannlichen etc). I had aldaado down as a 12/1 shot today so i am scraping the barrel taking 14/1 (especially in an opening uncompetitive market) but i think bigger will be available this am (i couldnt hang around on this occassion). The last time out form is a little offputting I agree but i cant take blue spinaker at that price and the joint favs are a couple of points too short to interest. With many of the others have stamina concerns i took a punt. Gayego and the given runner, dream of olwyn were my final shortlist picks. Good luck if you play in the race.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 4.00 Nottingham When I was looking over this race last night SPICEWOOD interested me ahead of his handicap debut but the early morning prices of 10/1 this morning were not enough to warrant a bet as I felt his price was accurate. However, Victor Chandler have just pushed him out to 16/1 and at that price I have to be involved as this is a horse that looks on a good mark and is well worth this step up in trip. With John Gosden in good form I think this price is all wrong, and thing he is worth an investment. Advised bet: 16/1 Victor Chandler, 1 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Spicewood ran poorly at Nottingham yesterday and didn't appear to fully see out the trip. Aldaado was a non-runner at Carlise, withdrawn from the race late on. 4.55 Goodwood This looks a really competitive stayers handicap where they bet 11/4 the field. All but one of the field are seperated by just 2 lbs on Racing Post Ratings. I can't be taking that price about the favourite as Coda Agency could ruffle his feathers today, and Curaco and Devil To Pay look plenty short enough, even if their chances look obvious. At the available prices, BRETT VALE is my selection. He was with Sir Mark Prescott last season, who had a bit of fun with him, romping up in several handicaps having been upped in trip for his handicap debut off a tasty mark - typical of the trainer. The handicapper inevitably caught up with him and he found life tough later on in the season once the assessor took a hold, and that led to his route out of the yard, via a claimer, to Peter Hedger, who threw him straight over hurdles. His career over the sticks never really took off and he came back onto the flat on the all-weather, running a very good race behind the progressive Tripitaka at Kempton in December, before beating the improving Moonbeam Dancer when upped in trip to two miles on his next start. Following re-assessment he has endured the same sort of problems as before - he's been racing off uncompetitive marks and been slaughtered, especially since his return to the flat. However, his last race came when beaten by Ermine Lodge at Ascot and he was a number of horses I crossed a line through before they had even left the gates as unlikely to have his ideal conditions. Considering the handicapper has reacted to his drubbing by slashing his rating down to 80 - 1 lb lower than when winning at Kempton in December and only 3 lb higher than when hacking up by six lengths at Sandown last August - there is no denying he is weighted to go well, if in the right frame of mind. He is the type of horse that could run a stinker here but saunter to victory next time out but if he turns up in good heart today there is he could bely his odds, based on his mark and proven stamina over the trip. This selection was a bit touch and go today to be honest, but Peter Hedger's record in 4 yo+ handicaps this season - 3 wins from just the 7 runners (strike rate of 43 %) swayed me and Brett Vale is a tentative selection. Advised bet: Brett Vale 28/1 Stan James, 0.75 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds)

[puntyboy]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 FINTRON YOU GOD! You'v just paid for my next 3 weeks holidays :nana :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Absolutely fantastic tipping fintron :nana It was 40/1 when I looked on the RP about half an hour ago and made pretty much the same claims as you for the horse but decided not to bother so I'm a bit sick but well done mate :ok