nkdz Posted June 12, 2010 Author Share Posted June 12, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system And what if Keane did the same, would you mention it? After all, this is not the subject here. Cheers paddy's. :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted June 17, 2010 Share Posted June 17, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system Allez les Bleu - back home to France :nana What a performance, thank god we just have to watch them for only one more time :puke :puke :puke Hopefully South Africa will beat them, too !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spz Posted June 24, 2010 Share Posted June 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system Hello. I somehow tried this system with Chealsea this season by doubling the stake every time, starting at 1 euro chasing the (x-half time)/(chelsea win) result with min odds @4 and ran out of steam(money) because they won like 1/1 or draw/lose. 2 steps forward and i would've had my bet and a nice profit but gave it up. If you want profit get any medium team in Premiership or whatever and chase the X results with odds @3. In 10 or maximum 15 steps you would get profit. No fun tho' ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted July 2, 2010 Share Posted July 2, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system I really fail to see how this can be perceived as a 'system'. It looks more like a glory hunt with a bad staking plan, and does not really belong in the Systems & Strategy forum. Sorry to be negative :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted July 2, 2010 Author Share Posted July 2, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system Well if you can't see the difference in results between mostly reccomended flat staking system and this one, i don't what else to put as an arguement. Post any row of settled bets with flat stakes and you'll see that following this staking system would be more profitable. Btw, i don't mind negative comments, on the contrary. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted July 5, 2010 Share Posted July 5, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system You're betting without a system, but you have a staking plan that so far has turned your inability to find winners into a small profit. At one point the laws of mathematics will make your staking plan look as mathematically wrong as it is, and you'll end up losing a lot more than you would lose with level stakes. But, whatever happens, you're still not running a system. You don't have a single selection criteria for your bets. All we see is a bad staking plan (as all progressive staking plans are) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted August 22, 2010 Author Share Posted August 22, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system Progressive: Win rate: 51% (25/50) - 2 VOID Stake: 1568 pts Return: 1605.25 pts P/L: +37.25 pts Yield: 2.4% Fixed at 20 pts: Win rate: 50 % (25/50) - 2 VOID Stake: 1000 pts Return: 971.80 pts P/L: -28.20 pts Yield: -2.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted August 22, 2010 Author Share Posted August 22, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system I'll continue with this thread, despite some negative comments. It's true my selection strategy was wrong and not as selective as it should be for such system. But i do have exactly 50% SR, and my yield is positive 2.4% while with fixed stakes i would have different situation as you can see. I'll bring some changes though, from now on i will have no more than 20 selections per month and no more than 1 selection per day. I won't take odds lower than 1.80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted August 22, 2010 Author Share Posted August 22, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system But, whatever happens, you're still not running a system. You don't have a single selection criteria for your bets. All we see is a bad staking plan (as all progressive staking plans are) What selection criteria do you need? It's all about staking here, idea was to take the best bets with odds around 2.00, and with aplication of this staking "system" i'd maximise my profit. There's absolutely no chance that after 100, 200, 500 bets my results will be better with fixed stake than with progressive ones. Wait and see. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted August 22, 2010 Author Share Posted August 22, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system 53) Slaven - Dinamo 2 @ 1.81 Stake: 50 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisempty Posted August 23, 2010 Share Posted August 23, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system You're betting without a system, but you have a staking plan that so far has turned your inability to find winners into a small profit. At one point the laws of mathematics will make your staking plan look as mathematically wrong as it is, and you'll end up losing a lot more than you would lose with level stakes. But, whatever happens, you're still not running a system. You don't have a single selection criteria for your bets. All we see is a bad staking plan (as all progressive staking plans are) What a load of crap! What bookie do you work for? lol He's not using martingale or some stupid thing like that. To say that all progressive staking plans are bad staking plans is like saying that all gay guys have aids. Put a sample of 1000 bets or more, and tell me where can this go wrong? Worse than flat stake? Never. Some people like to spend 5 hours to find 1% value in a bet, and some people like to make money. This maximizes your results and that's a fact. If you get 2 ou of 10 in odds around 2, you shouldn't be allowed to bet in anything at all, it doesn't matter if you're using flat stakes or whatever. "At one point the laws of mathematics will make your staking plan look as mathematically wrong as it is, and you'll end up losing a lot more than you would lose with level stakes. " Load of crap! As i already said, get a 1000 or more bet sample, and pass it through a level staking plan and then pass it through this 20% increment staking plan. Better yet, pass it through a 50% increment staking plan. IF YOU HAVE THE BANK FOR IT, you wont burn it, and you'll maximize your results. Just don't do this with a 1000€ bank and then come saying the staking plan is mathematically wrong... :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted August 23, 2010 Author Share Posted August 23, 2010 Re: Progressive staking Was thinking about City for tonight but gave up. No bets for today i'm affraid. :unsure Btw. agree with thisempty, this is, no doubt, better than flat staking if you're hitrate is close enough to 50% at odds ~2.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted August 24, 2010 Author Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking 54) Anderlecht - Partizan 2 AH (+1) @ 1.95 Stake: 41.50 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system Progressive: Win rate: 51% (25/50) - 2 VOID Stake: 1568 pts Return: 1605.25 pts P/L: +37.25 pts Yield: 2.4% Fixed at 20 pts: Win rate: 50 % (25/50) - 2 VOID Stake: 1000 pts Return: 971.80 pts P/L: -28.20 pts Yield: -2.8% Do me a favour, take all the money from progressive, 1568, divide by the number of bets, 50 use that as level stake, what result do you get ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisempty Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system Do me a favour, take all the money from progressive, 1568, divide by the number of bets, 50 use that as level stake, what result do you get ? Obviously he would get the exact same yield, only with more money lost. To the OP: After 4 years of betfair trading (i'm more of a trader than a punter), i really can't get it right. I can turn a 500€ bank in 1000€ in 1 week, but my discipline is horrendus, and sooner or later comes a game where a have a huge blow and i just can't help myself and risk the all bank or most of it in the next bet. After 4 years i still have trouble with this. I think i'm just not strong enough. And it doesn't matter if i have qualities as a trader or not because when things go wrong i always end up doing the same mistake. Many times i tried telling to myself that i would have discipline and not chase losses and think of this as a marathon and not a 100m race and i started from the beginning all all was going well... BUT there always comes one day where i just loose it and send months of good work down the drain. So, i started to think about a progressive system like this. I'm in the position of being able to have 20.000€ in 1 year from now. If I had a betfair account with 20.000€ and used it ONLY for this progressive system, i would feel safe, i wouldn't get the stress i get in trading that makes me do those stupid things. Supposing that i would do exactly like you, but instead of beginning with 20€ i would begin with 50€ and instead of 20% i would make a 40% progression... do you guys think that with 20.000€ i would be completely safe, right? starting with 50€ bets and making 40% progressions i would have to miss 15 times to get to around a stake of 4k or 5k... What are the odds of missing 15 bets in a row at odds 2? The thing is that i think i can get a 45% - 50% hit rate at odds average 2. And this is where the progression works. I thought about this over and over and i know it works. What makes the difference is the progression, not the hit rate. Can anyone tell me how to simulate the runs in a sample of 1000 bets with 50% chance of sucess? Sorry for my english, but what i want is something that tells me how many times in a row could i miss if making 1000 bets with 50% chance of sucess in every bet. Well, in 1000 bets i would get 500 right, i know that, but what about the biggest loosing run? How can i calculate that? Thank you very much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking Hmmm, with the same total staked i don't think you can have the same yield but a different value for profit/loss, bit elementary that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisempty Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking Hmmm' date=' with the same total staked i don't think you can have the same yield but a different value for profit/loss, bit elementary that.[/quote'] The yield is independent of the amount of money staked. When you see a yield of 5%, you know how much money you would make if betting with 10€ and with 1000€. What you're aslking the OP is what yield he would get if he instead of betting 20€ would bet another value, whatever that is. And the answer is the exact same yield. If the amount staked is bigger, the amount lost must also be bigger, of course... but what matters is the yield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking what i want is something that tells me how many times in a row could i miss if making 1000 bets with 50% chance of sucess in every bet. the number of bets as well as the odds is irrelevant, start with 50, increase by 40%, after your 15th losing bet you are out of cash. ( i take it you can manage 50+70+98 and so on until you do not have enough left for the next bet ) if you assume that by that time you will have made some profit then the calculation only makes sense if you include an assumed positive yield. if you actually want to know what the chances are of making a run of 15 losing bets at odds of 2.00 inside a limit of 1000 bets, i leave that for someone else to answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking Yield = Profit (or Loss) / Total staked How can it not be dependend on the amount staked ? ( given the same amount of profit ) You are assuming level stakes at a level where the total becomes the same will produce the same profit. It will not therefore you will get a different yield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking btw, who is "the OP" ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisempty Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking the number of bets as well as the odds is irrelevant, start with 50, increase by 40%, after your 15th losing bet you are out of cash. ( i take it you can manage 50+70+98 and so on until you do not have enough left for the next bet ) if you assume that by that time you will have made some profit then the calculation only makes sense if you include an assumed positive yield. if you actually want to know what the chances are of making a run of 15 losing bets at odds of 2.00 inside a limit of 1000 bets, i leave that for someone else to answer. Thanks for the feedback on my answer. Just one thing: I wouldn't be out of cash by the 15th bet. I think it would be 16 or 17. But my point is that i find it very hard to believe that i could miss 15 in a row. But that is why i want to know the mathematical formula to simulate that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking 40% total 1 50 50 2 70 120 3 98 218 4 137.2 355.2 5 192.08 547.28 6 268.912 816.192 7 376.4768 1192.669 8 527.0675 1719.736 9 737.8945 2457.631 10 1033.052 3490.683 11 1446.273 4936.956 12 2024.783 6961.739 13 2834.696 9796.435 14 3968.574 13765.01 15 5556.003 19321.01 after the 15th bet you will have spent 19321 and change and not have enough left to cover the 16th bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisempty Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking How can it not be dependend on the amount staked ? ( given the same amount of profit ) You are assuming level stakes at a level where the total becomes the same will produce the same profit. It will not therefore you will get a different yield. Maybe i'm missing something, but how would increasing the amount of the bet produce a different yield? Wouldn't the results be the same? Only percentually different? I'm not being ironic, maybe i'm really missing something, or not understanding what you're saying. The OP is Corinthian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisempty Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking 40% total 1 50 50 2 70 120 3 98 218 4 137.2 355.2 5 192.08 547.28 6 268.912 816.192 7 376.4768 1192.669 8 527.0675 1719.736 9 737.8945 2457.631 10 1033.052 3490.683 11 1446.273 4936.956 12 2024.783 6961.739 13 2834.696 9796.435 14 3968.574 13765.01 15 5556.003 19321.01 after the 15th bet you will have spent 19321 and change and not have enough left to cover the 16th bet. Ok, 15, not 16... But i told you that was not my point... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking But my point is that i find it very hard to believe that i could miss 15 in a row. But that is why i want to know the mathematical formula to simulate that. You cannot simulate your belief for the simple reason it is entirely dependend on your personal and individual ability to select bets that generate a positive yield. Unless you have records of a large series of bets the result of a consistent selection process you have nothing that can be similated. You could run a monte carlo simulation that tells you the % chance of hitting 15 losers in a row when betting at odds of 2.00 at random, but that's as close as you'll get. I'm not going to bother as the actual % is pretty irrelevant to the point of this thread, saying it is very small is good enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisempty Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking You cannot simulate your belief for the simple reason it is entirely dependend on your personal and individual ability to select bets that generate a positive yield. Unless you have records of a large series of bets the result of a consistent selection process you have nothing that can be similated. You could run a monte carlo simulation that tells you the % chance of hitting 15 losers in a row when betting at odds of 2.00 at random, but that's as close as you'll get. I'm not going to bother as the actual % is pretty irrelevant to the point of this thread, saying it is very small is good enough. I never said i wanted to simulate my belief! I SAID SIMULATE 1000 BETS WITH 50% CHANGE OF SUCCESS! GOT IT? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking I never said i wanted to simulate my belief! I SAID SIMULATE 1000 BETS WITH 50% CHANGE OF SUCCESS! GOT IT? LOG(1000)/-LOG(1-.50) longest expected losing run = (9.96) rounded 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking Thanks monkey, i new there was a simple calculation, just couldn't remember. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisempty Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Re: Progressive staking LOG(1000)/-LOG(1-.50) longest expected losing run = (9.96) rounded 10 Thank you very much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted September 4, 2010 Author Share Posted September 4, 2010 Re: Progressive staking - very selective system Do me a favour, take all the money from progressive, 1568, divide by the number of bets, 50 use that as level stake, what result do you get ? Not sure what did you mean? If i had stake of 31 pts, yield would be the same? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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