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Italian Serie A Silly Season

Grex

By Grex
in Betting Systems & Strategy

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Grex

Grex

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Thanks for all the statistics, Lardonio and Relf. It all adds weight to the argument that this is simply down to a "rolling snowball" effect, with punters driving the draw odds down. I agree with Kumquat Tree that the "value" bet is to go against the masses and lay the draw...... now watch the odds rocket up to 3.0 :loon

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Kumquat Tree

Kumquat Tree

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Always good to check your stats before placing a bet. The low odds on the draw have been a good indication in the past. Lowest odds on the draw for the usual 5 major suspect countries, 1st and 2nd level, I could find in the 2005-06 to 2008-09 seasons, were ALL Italy. 60 matches with odds of 2.59 or below, 22 in Serie A, 38 in Serie B. Then there comes a game in French Ligue 1. Of those 60 matches, 31 ended in a draw. 32 were unders. Only 5 of those games took place on March or earlier. Usually those low odds on the draw start in mid April. So probably a bit early what we see here. The "low" 10: 10. Vicenza v Rimini, Serie B, Week 42, 2005-06. Odds: 1,91. FT: 0-0. 9. Sampdoria v Udinese, Serie A, Week 36, 2005-06. Odds: 1,87. FT: 1-1. Goals exchanged in 57th and 62nd minute. 8. Hellas Verona v Bari, Serie B, Week 41, 2005-06. Odds: 1,86. FT: 2-2. Goals exchanged in 4th and 7th minutes for 1-1, and in 56th and 57th minute. 7. Parma v Regina, Serie A, Week 33, 2005-06. Odds: 1,74. FT: 4-0. Wow! 6. Chievo v Bologna, Serie A, Week 37, 2008-09. Odds: 1,83. FT: 0-0. 5. Piacenza v Bari, Serie B, Week 39, 2008-09. Odds: 1,68. FT: 2-2. Goals exchanged in 3th and 16th minutes for 1-1, and in 74th and 79th minute. 4. Grosseto vs Chievo, Serie B, Week 41. 2007-08. Odds: 1,65. FT: 1-1. Goals exchanged in 41st and 55th minute. 3. Frosinone vs. Cittadella, Serie B, Week 41. 2008-09. Odds: 1,62. FT: 1-0. Goal came in 81st minute. 2. Torino vs. Livorno, Serie A, Week 37. 2006-07. Odds: 1,61. FT: 0-0. And the winner is: 1. Mantova vs. Salernitana, Serie B, Week 42, 2008-09. Odds: 1.30. FT: ........ drum roll ... 1-1. Goals exchanged in 14th and 32nd minute. So 8 in 10 resulted in a draw.

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Kumquat Tree, I was half-laughing as I was reading your post, especially the timings of the goal exchanges. It's really amazing how Italian leagues could consistently produced this kind of results, while other leagues have failed to do so.

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Grex

Grex

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Amazing, absolutely amazing.... you would think at least they would try to make it look convincing.... say the away team goes into a 0-2 lead, followed by a magnificent fight-back by the home team, scoring the equaliser in the 93rd minute. To "trade" goals like that within a short space of time makes it look so obvious..... and I thought Italian players were good actors (they certainly are when it comes to feigning injury to waste time).;)

.....It's really amazing how Italian leagues could consistently produced this kind of results' date=' while other leagues have failed to do so.[/quote'] Not that amazing, Relf.... the other leagues "fail" because they are too honest and professional :tongue2
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bagaspuds

bagaspuds

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Ah come on,it's gone beyond hilarious now. Have a look at the score1-1 odds now:gimme

Betting on:
Total matched on this event: €71,987
Betting summary - Volume: €60,235
Last price matched: 2.60
LoadRunnerInfoChartAction.do?marketId=101225793&selectionId=3&asianLineId=0
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Shinigami

Shinigami

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season

logo.jpgSunday March 21, 2010
Want a sure-win football tip?
k-anand.jpg
MARCH 20 — A friend sent a very interesting email on Wednesday night which I’d like to share for the benefit of all readers. It’s a tip for a sure-win bet on a match in the Italian Serie A this weekend. Yes, that’s right, a sure-win bet. I can see I certainly got your interest now. The match is not surprisingly one from the Italian Serie A. It’s the match between Chievo and Catania which kicks off at 10pm (Malaysian time) tomorrow.
To quote my friend, “the best way to make money on sports-betting is when the result is already known.” In Asia, we are more likely to believe that a match had been fixed. “Match-fixing happens all the time lah”, we would happily say to our doubting friends from the west, especially those from the United Kingdom. They were brought up on the respectable view of sports being played on a level field with both teams giving their all for the sheer joy of playing the game, let alone winning it. Until some unscrupulous people were caught red-handed in the early 1990s, most people there thought you just couldn’t “fix” the outcome of matches in England. About that case, proudly, or maybe not in this case, a Malaysian or two were involved in the plan to fix the result of a match at the home of Charlton Athletic. The tactic was to set the floodlights to fail about 5 minutes into the second half of the match. Back then, before football live telecasts became the norm, the bookies in Asia would settle bets and consider the result of a match as final, as long as the second-half had kicked off. So, they could take all the “live bets”, or “running ball” (“bola jalan” in BM) bets, towards the end of the first half as well as during half-time, weigh the outcome on both sides, then decide whether to “end” the match for their benefit. Anyway, getting back to the match in question this weekend, the big tip is that the result has been fixed to be a draw. No surprise there for an Italian match, right? True, but not when you have people betting more than GBP100,000 on a drawn game four days before the match. That’s the “action” that had already gone down in a few online sports-books, as well as betting exchanges, such as Betfair, on Wednesday evening. Incidentally, all other matches being offered for early betting had no more than GBP5,000 laid on any of the possible outcomes — home-win, draw or away-win. If there’s one thing that people do online, it is that they do it fast. Sure enough, within hours, most of the sportsbetting websites started taking heavy bets on a draw between Chievo and Catania. The typical reaction from UK bookmakers is to suspend the betting entirely for this game, so as to minimise their liability, as such a high volume of betting so early before a match raises all kinds of questions. A quick check with a few of the established UK bookmakers, such as Ladbrokes, Stan James and Victor Chandler, shows that the Italian match in question had been suspended. Not surprisingly, the Asian bookmakers, SBOBET, 188Bet and Mansion — incidentally all three are shirt sponsors for English Premier League (EPL) teams — all still carry the match but with a huge anomaly for what is considered a draw bet. For all the other matches in the Serie A played this weekend, the draw bet in all these websites is paying more than either a home-win or away-win, but for Chievo v Catania, the draw bet is paying lower than the other two betting options, not to mention it is the lowest price for a draw game you can get on any of the top four major leagues in Europe – EPL, German Bundesliga, Spanish Primera Liga, Italian Serie A. Speaking of which, the Italian leagues have always been plagued with claims of match-fixing. It’s a question of survival – in more ways than you can imagine – and with Italy being the home of the mafia, you can bet that it goes all the way to the top of the club and football administration in the country. That is why, every season, by the time the Serie A season gets to the months of April and May, that is, when the top of the table is pretty much down to the usual suspects – AC Milan, Juventus, Inter Milan, Roma – and the relegation battle is tight among a handful too, many of the UK sportbooks do not even bother to offer matches that involve two mid-table teams. By the way, there are no guarantees in betting on football, so if anyone should decide to place a bet on a draw for the match tomorrow between Chievo and Catania, you would do so at your own risk. My comments above are purely based on information that was given to me, and which I analysed over a few sports-betting websites. It is not to be seen as a guarantee on the result nor an encouragement to place a bet on such a result. There’s so much more to talk about football betting than can be mentioned in just one article. With the world cup coming in June, I expected to read a lot more stories about police clamping down on illegal betting syndicates around the country, like in years past, but things have been surprisingly quiet. It is either a case of the syndicates getting smarter in evading the police, or the police are too busy looking after a certain political party’s interest in holding on to power to have time to go after the real criminals out there. My guess is the latter. * The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the columnist.
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relf

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Oh my goodness! Couldn't the diving player act a little more convincingly? That's the worst dive I've have ever seen. Alright, I shall not complain since I profitted from this whole show. :)

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Just to update about the current situation, there aren't any fishy odds for the 10 midweek fixtures, i.e. all the draws odds are at least 3 on Bet365. However, Chievo-Parma and Livorno-Bari are both at 2.90 for draw for this weekend's matches.

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Vilamoura04

Vilamoura04

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season I love italy and italians but this sort of thing will always happen in italy because this sort of dodgy dealing is acceptable, almost respected in italy. "The end justifies the means". They love a good conspiracy theory. When it goes against them they dont like it of course. Sweden Denmark was it in Euro 2004?

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barrhead73

barrhead73

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Noticed that someones just laid £3k on the draw at 1.89 which got me thinking. What if someone went and backed this draw at odds of 3 then started spreading rumours about how this game was fixed to end in a draw. The price drops and then you can lay off your original bet at much lower odds thus guaranteeing a healthy return.

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KThom

KThom

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Fair play mate. Can't see this happening and more importantly - being tolerated in any other European country. I'm on it cos I missed out on Saturday and you'd be a fool to pass on "free" money - it's just not fun betting in this way. Reminds me of the scene in back to the future where mcfly buys a sports results book and wants to bet on results he already knows. How boring would it be if you won EVERY time?

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relf

relf

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Good luck on that, barrhead73. I might be totally wrong, but I think it would be very difficult for a normal person to start spreading rumours, unless you have a big amount of cash and you stake that big amount to catch people's attention. That would be way too risky. But that's probably what those people behind this (if there are) are doing - just in case things don't go according as planned. Will give this one a miss. Let's see what happens then.

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