Champions League 9th of March

[underdog30]

Re: Champions League 9th of March 2.2 on an Arsenal -1 Asian handicap (betfair) seems like good odds to me. The last time Porto came to the Emirates it was a 4-0 white wash, Porto for all their supposed attacking flair had next to none clear cut chances on their own turf in the first leg - and as everyone knows Fabianski was the main reason they got such a flattering scoreline. I see Porto trying to defend their lead in this, with the plan to try and counter Arsenal on the break, which incidently will suit the home team at the moment who love high possession football. Arshavin is back in action, Theo looking in form and Bendtner who although had a game to forget against Burnley enjoyed a goal a game ratio before that from his last three outings. Perhaps even more importantly though, song is back in midfield for more stability, and Sol back in to shore up the leaky defence. I'm willing to put my neck on the line on this one and reckon 2-0 minimum.

[Marcus1874]

Re: Champions League 9th of March I think Both Teams to Score @ 1.91 will be my selection for this match, I'm going for a double on the same market in the Fiorentina/Bayern game to make it 3.15. Both games could go either way with both of the away teams leading on aggregate, I think Arsenal and Fiorentina will be after an early goal....and when they come, Bayern and Porto both have the ability to strike back.

[blackcrow]

Re: Champions League 9th of March Arsenal -1 (EH) @ 2.80 centrebet Arsenal may be without Fabregas but they still possess some quality players to win this game and score a few goals. Porto showed that they can be broken down and with the home side needing a goal to get the advantage overall, it will force Porto to come forward to get an important away goal. However this will open up even more gaps in their defence and can see Arsenal scoring goals on the counter attack. Porto have lost all 6 of their trips to London and lost 4-0 to Arsenal in September 2008. Even further helping their causeis that Porto tend to play with 3 up front which should leave further holes in their midfield and defence for Arsenal to attack. Bayern Munich @ 2.56 pinnacle Fiorentina have won only once in their last9 Serie A games and have allowed a goal in their last 17 games. They will press forward to get the one goal they need in order to qualify and given Bayern's defensive concerns, they will feel confident that they can score. However, Bayern will defend much more tightly because of the number of defensive players out for this game and this will make it difficult for Fiorentina to score. And with the likes of Ribery and Robben on the flanks, they have two top players who can expose the home side who push forward to get that one goal they are looking for. Like the look of Bayern to take advantage of a porous Fiorentina defence as they do have quality in midfield and up front to hurt the Italian side

[Jase82]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

why would porto even venture into arsenals half. if they have got any sense they will stick 11 men on the goal line and just jump up and down all game ;) i can see arsenal easily covering a minus 4 corner handicap jase, this is a totally different game than arsenal have played so far this season, there is no way porto can afford to attack unless they let that goal in and by that time arsenal could of had 10 corners arsenal know that 1 goal is enough and porto know that a clean sheet will see them thru, dont think there will be goals in this tonight especially without fabregas

I think it's fair to say Arsenal have played several sides they were expected to walk over in the CL, and none of those games resulted in Arsenal beating a -4 corner handicap. That is mainly what my bet is based around. That and I think Porto are being underestimated slightly. I think it would be a mistake to assume that Porto will be happy to sit in their half all night. The odds for the game are set up in Arsenal's favour, as though they are "expected" to win at a canter, and along with it, rack up dozens of corners. It often doesn't work like that.

[Jase82]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

2.2 on an Arsenal -1 Asian handicap (betfair) seems like good odds to me. The last time Porto came to the Emirates it was a 4-0 white wash, Porto for all their supposed attacking flair had next to none clear cut chances on their own turf in the first leg - and as everyone knows Fabianski was the main reason they got such a flattering scoreline. I see Porto trying to defend their lead in this, with the plan to try and counter Arsenal on the break, which incidently will suit the home team at the moment who love high possession football. Arshavin is back in action, Theo looking in form and Bendtner who although had a game to forget against Burnley enjoyed a goal a game ratio before that from his last three outings. Perhaps even more importantly though, song is back in midfield for more stability, and Sol back in to shore up the leaky defence. I'm willing to put my neck on the line on this one and reckon 2-0 minimum.

Adebeyor and Van Persie scored two a piece in that 4-0 demolition, and it was in the group stage. :welcome by the way.

[markd]

Arsenal vs Porto Pick & Preview Arsenal vs Porto Porto have vowed they will not change their attacking style for Tuesday's crunch clash with Arsenal. But, for Gunners they need only a goal and make sure not conceded any to proceed. Arsenal are without key players Fabregas and Van Persie. By looking on the above concerns, it seems not a good idea to support Arsenal but the Gunners have won all the Champion League matches at Emirates stadium. I can see their home spirit and high motivation from London's supporters. Arsenal will go... with a goal!

[CKPROPUNT]

Re: Champions League 9th of March I DON'T RATE PORTO AT ALL AND ONLY FOR FARCICAL DEFENDING FROM THE GUNNERS IN THE FIRST LEG THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE TIE BY NOW, ALL THE BIG NAMES HAVE MOVED ON AND SIMPLY OUT OF THERE DEPTH HERE TAKE ARSENAL @8-13 AND DOUBLE THEM UP WITH D GALLACTICOS OF MADRID TO QUALIFY 2MORO NITE @4-7 :cash

[discodave]

Re: Champions League 9th of March do you know jase your probably right but there is no way porto have the players to beat arsenal they would have to be mad to think they can imo, I think they would be commiting football suicide if they try and attack arsenal, they were so lucky in the first leg being gifted both goals and if the manager is worth his salt he will see that arsenal without fabianski are going to be a lot harder to score against especially at the emirates, espn say porto will play 3 up front if they do then ill be taking arsenal to beat the handicap on goals not corners.

[Jase82]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

do you know jase your probably right but there is no way porto have the players to beat arsenal they would have to be mad to think they can imo, I think they would be commiting football suicide if they try and attack arsenal, they were so lucky in the first leg being gifted both goals and if the manager is worth his salt he will see that arsenal without fabianski are going to be a lot harder to score against especially at the emirates, espn say porto will play 3 up front if they do then ill be taking arsenal to beat the handicap on goals not corners.

Yeah, I totally agree :) I just don't think it'll be completely one sided. Porto will have their say. It's also interesting to note that Arsenal were missing Fabregas at exactly the same stage last season, and they barely scraped through against Roma. They even had Van Persie available then.

[kulikTS]

Re: Champions League 9th of March Wondering how it will play without Fabregas..sometimes so that the weakened team wins ( I know, I myself I put to defeat these teams ;)). I think that Arsenal have good players (Nasri, Rosicki, Diaby wheter Denilson) therefore, they should win :hope

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

Arsenal vs Porto: Arsenal to win in ET @ 26.00 (bet365) Whether this bets wins or not it is way to high a price IMHO, most bookies only go 16/1. Considering a 2-1 scoreline (which would mean ET) is priced at 9.40 then 25/1 on arsenal winning in ET is a superb value Porto definately have he team to score at the emirates and arsenals defence is anything but solid People seem to think porto will come here and play defensive which I just cant see happening, hey know a 1-0 win for arsenal knocks them out of the CL and if hey think they can just defend for 90 mins against arsenal they are wrong. I really think porto wil look to wipe out arsenals away goal with one of their own and if that happens a 2-1 is a very strong possiblity Hey by no means a banker guys but at nice odds I'm more than willing to give it a punt :ok

That is great value and I'll be on that as well. Even penalty shootout wins are @29.00 for Arsenal and @34.00 for Porto. I could see both fixtures today going to ET.

[nicko]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

I could see both fixtures today going to ET.

:ok:ok:ok ...and as I got some ''room'' within the odds for this, had a Double with Both Teams to score in both, 3,05 with bet365...ALTHOUGH Fiore look a bit fragile to me, and with a bad start of the game could collapse... GL

[bookies worst enemy]

Re: Champions League 9th of March I was originally gonna lump on Arsenal but without captain Cesc at times they are a different team. Porto are gonna set out to defend the lead and frustrate Arsenal. The gunners will become desperate and will probably score win 1 or 2 nil, but can't see a thrashing. So unders looks good value to me Along with the Bayern game, the germans are likely to just protect there lead and invite pressure from fiorentina. so where looking at a tense cagey game heading for under 2.5. I'm gonna play it risky and double them up Under 2.5 goals Doubles Fiorentina V Bayern Munich 5/6 Arsenal V Porto Evs

[nicko]

Re: Champions League 9th of March I was also looking at the odds for Over 2,5 Goals in Fiorentina - 1,85 with bet365. I think it is a trap, set by the public opinion - Fiore needs to attack and win, which is always good for Over-hunters, and on top of that they are facing Bayern, who have at least 5 excellent scoring guys upfront. The game screams for in-play options : -- if no Goal in the first 30 minutes, the odds for the Over will be 2,37-2,50 ! -- if only one Goal is scored in the first 30 minutes, the game stays open for an Over, but at HT the odds for the Over will be at 2,00 - 2,10 or more, the exchanges will make the bookies wild during the break, but it is CL after all... -- if 2 or more Goals are scored in the first Half, let alone the first 30 minutes people can openly mock me here for wasting my time - the Over @ 1,85 will look so close and easy...But then if the Over is @ 1,85 why is the line for First Half Goals set @ Over 1 Goal @ 1,825. It makes by far more sense... Just look at the IF's above - with Scenario One I am right and the odds for the Over are too low to take now. With IF Number Two ( only 1 Goal ) your money are back with you, and it is up to you whether to go for Over at HT on the in-play, BUT at better odds, or drop the game. With IF Number Three - 2 or more Goals in the First Half your bet is a winner at almost the same odds, long before the game is over... It screams for in-play, this game... P.S. The lines moved now, Over 2,5 Goals is up to 1,95, First Half Goals Over 1 is up to 1,925. The logic remains, although if up to 2,10 during in-play I will be very tempted to take it earlier...

[aka haldan]

Re: Champions League 9th of March Arsenal-Porto. The odds don't reflect the present value difference between these 2 teams. So, it's very simple: I will stick with Porto but I will just sit and wait to see if I get a better AH (like +1 for instance). GL :hope

[underdog30]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

Yeah, I totally agree :) I just don't think it'll be completely one sided. Porto will have their say. It's also interesting to note that Arsenal were missing Fabregas at exactly the same stage last season, and they barely scraped through against Roma. They even had Van Persie available then.

Cheers for the welcome mate :ok I don't think you should take last season too much into account when it comes to Arsenal this term. Wenger was basically trying to fit square pegs into round holes pretty much all the way through; thanks mainly to the untimely loss of flamini and Hleb, and a sulky striker who clearly had pretensions of playing elsewhere in Adebayor. There is much more coherence about the team nowadays and although they lack the razor sharpness that they had near the beginning of the season - they still remain formidable to the vast majority of teams out there. Indeed, they only seem to come unstuck against the more physically imposing teams that are solid at back, see both Chelsea games for a good example.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Champions League 9th of March And playing Roma @ the Olimpico isn't the same as Porto @ the Emirates.

[andyfmfb]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

I watched Porto's two last matches and if they play like that they will be hammered by Arsenal that's for sure. I know that in chamions league they will play the best they can but i'm pretty confident in my prediction Fernando apparently won't play, and he is really important for them, especially on the defence

Fielded a weakend side at weekend, some important players to come back in for this game. This is the same Porto side that at times played rings round Arsenal in Portugal. Clichy must still be having nightmares about that game, and granted that Campbell seemed to get some sort of a grip on the game after a shaky start, the Portugese will be relishing having a go at this gunners defence. With this in mind and the mega news that Cesc is out, im alot more confident than most appear to be in backing the away side here. Porto +0.5 AH @ 2.49 Porto straight @ 6.4 Porto win 1-2 @ 23 (all with Betfair)

[Mahno]

Re: Champions League 9th of March Is that true that Arsenal never went through the next round when loosing in 1st leg since 1998? :unsure

[andyfmfb]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

Is that true that Arsenal never went through the next round when loosing in 1st leg since 1998? :unsure

Thats correct, also Porto have an insane recored of progressing when taking a 1st leg lead.

[Jase82]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

Cheers for the welcome mate :ok I don't think you should take last season too much into account when it comes to Arsenal this term. Wenger was basically trying to fit square pegs into round holes pretty much all the way through; thanks mainly to the untimely loss of flamini and Hleb, and a sulky striker who clearly had pretensions of playing elsewhere in Adebayor. There is much more coherence about the team nowadays and although they lack the razor sharpness that they had near the beginning of the season - they still remain formidable to the vast majority of teams out there. Indeed, they only seem to come unstuck against the more physically imposing teams that are solid at back, see both Chelsea games for a good example.

:lol I wasn't..... You brought up Arsenal's 4-0 romp over Porto last season. Both the scorers that day are now missing. I couldn't back Arsenal with Bendnter up front. Love him or hate him, Adebeyor is a quality finisher. I've been critisiced for quoting Sky Sports before.....but Arsenal have not over turned a first let defecit in something like thirty years.

And playing Roma @ the Olimpico isn't the same as Porto @ the Emirates.

That's not the point I was making. Both were in the last sixteen of the CL, and Fabregas will be absent, both times.

[aka haldan]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

Yeah, I totally agree :) It's also interesting to note that Arsenal were missing Fabregas at exactly the same stage last season, and they barely scraped through against Roma. They even had Van Persie available then.

Interesting information Jase. By the way if I'm allowed I really appreciate your work and many times I agree with your thoughts. Good luck and keep it up.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Champions League 9th of March Looks like freezing rain and heavy winds in Florence. http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Florence+Italy+ITXX0028

[nkdz]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

Sport	Football (Euro Cups)
Event	Arsenal (-1,25) - Porto
Selection	1 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	09/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 1.80 (Back)
Reasoning	Even without Fabregas i doubt Arsenal will fail to win tonight. Porto is a tough opposition for sure, but not on Arsenal's level. According to reports, Porto is not in their best form lately. Fabianski had a bad day in the first leg, and that's the main reason why Porto won that game. So, home win, and possibly even by 2 or more goals.

[MrMal]

Re: Champions League 9th of March Fiorentina v Bayern Munich Not going with any outright predictions as Munich just scraped through in the 1st leg courtesy of the Ref. Tonight's selection is also based on the ref. The 1st leg had 5 yellows and 1 red. Tonight's ref is the spaniard Mallenco who has been flashing the reds quite frequently - last 9 games = 6 red cards. His average over those 9 games was just over 6 cards a game. Considering the home team have to push for 1 goal at least, to have any chance of progressing, it should open things up for the counter by Munich. If Munich capitalize on this and score then Fiorentina might lose their game plan and might get a bit more aggressive. With this in mind and the 1st leg cards I am having a punt on Red Card Yes @ 5/2 (4/10) Card Index 50-55pts @ 5/1 (25% stake) & 60 points or more @ 11/10 (75%)

[nkdz]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

Sport	Football (Euro Cups)
Event	Fiorentina (+0) - FC Bayern
Selection	1 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	09/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 2.20 (Back)
Reasoning	After watching Bayern in the first leg i just can't see them as favourites. True, Fiorentina weren't much better that night but they definetly deserved better score. Bayern is playing too slow, relying too much on Ribery/Robben on the wings, while they are almost harmless through the middle. Badstuber at the back has problems with positioning while van Buyten is too rigid. Gomez is not even close to his best form while Muller is IMHO not the player for club like Bayern. Fiorentina should be inspired to give more than usually this season and i can't see Bayern winning this game. GL.

[andyfmfb]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

Looks like freezing rain and heavy winds in Florence. http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Florence+Italy+ITXX0028

Interesting. With the home side needing the win, and as niko mentioned earlier Bayerns abundance in attacking talent the weather conditions could aid to a goal feast. Over 50% of both sides games this season have been overs (trading at 2's now). Could be a decent bet, though Ive an inkling that we could see alot of goals tonight and Ive took a crazy stab at over 4.5 @7.4 on Betfair (now that Ive scudded that we would all be aswell taking the 0-0 now) :)

[dak]

Re: Champions League 9th of March Arsenal are the better team, but at 1.65ish leaves a bit to be desired in terms of fair odds. Porto has the 2-1 result which they are going to defend. I don't know if they will be successful. In the reverse fixture it was clear that Porto, although a good team, could not keep up with Arsenal. This was evidenced by the many fouls they commited in order to stop Arsenal's flow. I think Porto will do the same at the Emirates. If they succeed the 1.65 on Arsenal is going to be painful. Of course, Arsenal could do the business, but......

[discodave]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

Fielded a weakend side at weekend, some important players to come back in for this game. This is the same Porto side that at times played rings round Arsenal in Portugal. Clichy must still be having nightmares about that game, and granted that Campbell seemed to get some sort of a grip on the game after a shaky start, the Portugese will be relishing having a go at this gunners defence. With this in mind and the mega news that Cesc is out, im alot more confident than most appear to be in backing the away side here. Porto +0.5 AH @ 2.49 Porto straight @ 6.4 Porto win 1-2 @ 23 (all with Betfair)

portos attack is shite the only relishing they are gonna be doing is when they go get a hot dog outside the ground :lol porto werent that good against arsenal and they couldnt score without some amazing luck they only had 45% posssesion in a home game where a very inexperienced keeper should have been tested far more, 9 shots off target is not a good indicator that they will be able to match arsenal even without fabregas, if porto are to progress then surely it will have to be via a 0-0, and alumnias back and that will give even more confidence for the defence i could be wrong of course but porto will definitely have their work cut out tonight.

[andyfmfb]

Re: Champions League 9th of March

portos attack is shite the only relishing they are gonna be doing is when they go get a hot dog outside the ground :lol porto werent that good against arsenal and they couldnt score without some amazing luck they only had 45% posssesion in a home game where a very inexperienced keeper should have been tested far more, 9 shots off target is not a good indicator that they will be able to match arsenal even without fabregas, if porto are to progress then surely it will have to be via a 0-0, and alumnias back and that will give even more confidence for the defence i could be wrong of course but porto will definitely have their work cut out tonight.

:rollin Good luck mate.